FFFA! Late edition.

It’s Friday!

And we’re having tech difficulties.

We’ll flesh this thread out later.

Carry on!

98 Responses to “FFFA! Late edition.”

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    bon jovi Says:
    1

    just returned from the bank. had a chat with advisor there to deposit money into RESP. On the mortgage front Scotia has 5 year variable at 2.9% and 2 year closed at 2.6 %.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    Democrass Says:
    2

    Here is a professor’s view of what governments can do to make housing affordable:

    Kershaw, who researches the financial challenges facing young families, said this would save a typical family about $50,000 before their children reach the age of six, which would make it easier for parents to save for a down payment and handle B.C.’s high housing prices or afford to pay their rent.

    Kershaw said governments have few ways to influence the price of housing — which is usually determined by market forces — other than programs to fight homelessness and rental assistance to help low-income people.

    Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/life/Expensive+housing+riddle+British+Columbia+parties/8364133/story.html#ixzz2SutiUUY2

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Vmd@work Says:
    3

    [Via CMT] Update, May 10, 12:40 p.m. ET:
    “We’ve contacted the Department of Finance (DoF) for comment. Banking sources have confirmed reports of the DoF contemplating amortization guideline changes for conventional mortgages. But there’s no confirmation on what, if any, moves will be made. Assuming the DoF acts on this issue, an alternative possibility is that conventional borrowers be made to qualify at a 25-year amortization, but still be allowed to set payments at a longer amortization.”
    http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2013/05/death-sentence-for-extended-amortizations.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    DaMann Says:
    4

    @bon jovi

    You mean the variable is 2.6% and the closed is 2.9% I presume?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    DaMann Says:
    5

    vmd@work

    AM I missing something? I though the new rules brought amortizations down to 25 years already? Though that was the last round of changes. Is this not the case. You can still get 30 year mortgages?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    DaMann Says:
    6

    Sure whish there was an edit button… Though should be thought, but upon re reading the article it states 30 year will be scrapped for mortgages above 20% DP. Mortgages with under 20% down payment are already restricted to 25 years.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

    San Dweller Says:
    7

    DaMann:

    >You can still get 30 year mortgages?

    There are still available via mortgage brokers: I can’t say how the rules are bend – but they appear to be.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    vmd@work Says:
    8

    1. @Damann
    That’s right, the previous rule change affected only mortgages requiring CMHC insurance (ie ones with 25yr loans to people with 20%+ DP

    Looks like Garth might be right this time.. we’ll see.

    2. re: family re-unification. The rules are getting tougher:
    “Ottawa said it is hiking the minimum necessary annual income for sponsors by 30 per cent, requiring sponsors to demonstrate they meet the new income threshold for three consecutive years instead of 12 months; and extending the sponsorship responsibility period to 20 years from 10 years.”

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

    Tyburn gallows Says:
    9

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/debt/8365779/story.html

    “Instead of admonishing people for getting into debt, a new book by Laura McDonald and Susan Misner of Winnipeg offers a plethora of practical tips, not only on how to avoid debt, but how to get out of it.”

    love the timing.. two gorgeous blondes biting the debt bullet… ah yazz… step right up folks, we’re serving austerity… but pump and dump bankers, realtors, and mainstream media tawking heads are off the hook…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    bon jovi Says:
    10

    checked with wifey it is 2.69 2 year closed.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Planning Says:
    11

    Does anyone know where to find the City of Vancouver’s development plans? For example, where does the city plan on increasing density, where might new transit routes be, and so on.

    Thanks in advance.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    12

    You can still get very low rates right now, the only stipulation is if you want them insured with the government you need to qualify under the 5 year posted rate, which is being kept artificially high.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    Skook Says:
    13

    @Planning says:

    “Does anyone know where to find the City of Vancouver’s development plans? For example, where does the city plan on increasing density, where might new transit routes be, and so on.”

    Would this site be any help to you?…

    http://data.vancouver.ca/datacatalogue/index.htm

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    HAM Solo Says:
    14

    Nice to see some of the bigger US hedge funds picking up the short Canada theme. Home Capital Group moves from $60 -> $50; Genworth MIC “beats and announces buyback” and after a few days not much happens, back to $25.

    If you look through Q1 report from Home Capital Group, we continue to see higher and higher credit provisions every quarter. My guess is that Q2 or Q3 produces a “doozy” credit provision of $5-8 million compared to last year’s $2-4 million run rate. Unlike Genworth, HCG has no slush fund to throw at stock buybacks. (I suspect that OSFI takes the MIC slush fund away).

    For the long suffering community of Canadian financial shorts, all this is like Christmas. We are starting to get the companies reporting increased losses while the cavalry in the form of monster US and global hedge funds is appearing on the horizon.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    15

    Yay my brother sold his house. Almost one year on the market and one price reduction. His realtor said that is the only sale he’s had all year… This is a guy that’s been in the business for about 6 years.

    On a side note, after a lowball offer a few months ago was declined, the buyers agent approached my brother privately and asked if he’d be interested in selling it privately to her clients… That seems highly highly unethical to me? Bro didn’t even bother to tell his realtor , I certainly would have

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    space889 Says:
    16

    Normally not a big fan of Federal Tory, but this kind of changes is long overdue and really should have been the policy since the start. Personally I think any sponsored parents/grandparents that are past working age or really employable should not be eligible for welfare, and social assistance, as well as a long wait for free public health care (or perhaps some kind of co-payments). If you never paid taxes in Canada then you really shouldn’t be getting the benefits. There has to be a net benefit to the country, not just to you.

    Off course NDP is throwing a fit over this but I would like to see how they plan to pay for all the current benefits being paid out, like the $400K in average health care cost for each set of grandparents as cited in the story. Reality trumps idealism every times. Though it would be nice to have fairness in there as well.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/05/10/pol-immigration-family-changes.html

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 2

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    17

    30 year mortgages are still technically available, even with CMHC insurance, via certain products with 25yr amortization that let borrowers skip a payment once annually. The skipped payment gets recapitalized, so if you execute this privilege as often as you’re entitled you’d end up taking about 30 years to pay off that 25 year mortgage. And, on aggregate, the monthly payments are about 10% lower.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    Here is another metric for grappling with the valuation disparity between Vancouver and the GTA:

    http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/05/whale-watching-update.html

    Toronto has more than twice as many billionaires as Vancouver, and more than Calgary and Vancouver combined!

    I have also update my earnings chart http://www.chpc.biz/earnings.html

    Alberta sets another new record high in earnings and their unemployment dropped to 4.4%

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous1 Says:
    19

    Immigration changes today:

    Biggest change is if I am correct is that parents/grandparents coming in will have to wait 20 years (up from 10) to collect OAS/GIS. Can someone verify?

    If true, this is a huge change once the 80,000 parents/grandparents applications already in the pipeline are processed.

    It will mean a move away from the Mega-houses in Surrey. Smaller location friendly homes will be more in demand.

    Parents and Grandparents won’t come here to stay because no monetary incentive. 20 years is just to long.

    Before, every parent coming in had listed their age as 55 coming in (even if they were 45) –> Figure that out for yourself ;)

    Now they will put 47 as their ages. lol

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 4

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    20

    “Kershaw said governments have few ways to influence the price of housing — which is usually determined by market forces”

    What planet is this guy from? RE prices are as high as they are because government is deliberately inflating them. If there actually was a free market in housing prices would be lower than they are in the US – where the government is still intervening to support prices.

    Oh, just noticed he’s from UBC. Well that explains everything.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    21

    “Biggest change is if I am correct is that parents/grandparents coming in will have to wait 20 years (up from 10) to collect OAS/GIS. Can someone verify?

    If true, this is a huge change once the 80,000 parents/grandparents applications already in the pipeline are processed.”

    It’s not a huge change at all, because under pre-existing rules you only get full OAS if you’ve been in Canada for 40 years. Anything less than that and it’s pro-rated.

    The real financial burden on taxpayers is medical care for elder immigrants, which the provinces cannot refuse to anyone admitted as a permanent resident.

    More Conservative talk not matching the walk.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 2

    Beuller Says:
    22

    I’m liking Kenney more and more all the time. About frigging time we put an end to these freeloaders.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/05/10/pol-immigration-family-changes.html

    Maybe Flaherty will grow a pair and raise the minimum downpayment instead of just shaking a finger at the banks. Its hilarious to see all the whiners in the mortgage industry crying about how Flaherty is being “risky” by toying with the regulations. Here’s a thought, you idiots, maybe he was being too risky by introducing 40 year zero down mortgages. None of you snakes complained at all then did you?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    23

    @Democrass

    Kershaw said governments have few ways to influence the price of housing — which is usually determined by market forces — other than programs to fight homelessness and rental assistance to help low-income people.

    Um….huh? I thought governments had many ways to influence the price of housing? Everything from urban planning to monetary policy?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

    Johnny_O Says:
    24

    It isn’t Canadians naivete the problem, it’s the plethora of idiots that work for inside the immigration department. They truely believe money comes free!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 6

    Anonymous1 Says:
    25

    patriotz:

    This is an example of you missing information..

    You are forgetting about the GIS. If you are in Canada for 10 years, of course you get less OAS…BUT it is topped of by more GIS.

    The 40 year requirement means nothing…believe me :)

    The one that matters is 10 years. Is it now 20? That is the BIG question.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 3

    Eddie Says:
    26

    The Feds just gave Genworth 50 billion to keep the party going and no one seemed to notice.

    They can say anything they want but its clear where their priorities are.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    27

    Unemployment in BC down from 7% to 6.4%, and is now well below the national average of 7.2%

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/economy/unemployment+rate+dropped+March/8366314/story.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    28

    “Toronto has more than twice as many billionaires as Vancouver”

    So per-capita Vancouver has more billionaires than Toronto?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

    @#27 VDTF
    also note:
    Unemployment in Vancouver stayed at 6.8%, while BC dropped from 7% to 6.4%
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/unemployment-stats/

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

    New Listings 232
    Price Changes 121
    Sold Listings 32 …huh?
    TI:18050
    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 146 Thumb down 0

    kabloona kabloona Says:
    31

    Well…..now *that’s* a slow sales day. 18k party anyway.

    ;-)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 37 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    32

    “Toronto has more than twice as many billionaires as Vancouver”

    So per-capita Vancouver has more billionaires than Toronto?

    Residences in that table are obviously metro areas. Toronto has a bit more than twice the population of Vancouver (metro vs metro), so take it from there.

    What I find interesting is how many billionaires there are in Quebec, which has far and away the highest taxes in Canada.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3

    Boombust Says:
    33

    Well done, Paul.

    Luv ya!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 2

    Chris Says:
    34

    Something doesn’t seem quite right… Yesterday’s sales number (80) is also likely wrong. Most days PaulB’s numbers match up exactly with RobChipman’s numbers. But yesterday Rob reported 144 vs 80 for PaulB.

    PaulB’s numbers still very valuable though, as Rob does not report new listings, price changes or TI. Please keep posting!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

    Boombust Says:
    35

    Rob? Chipman?

    Who cares?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0

    frank Says:
    37

    Paul’s numbers don’t jive with Fish’s either. But still a great day with a list/sales under 30%!
    I am happy with that.

    http://fishyre.blogspot.ca/2013/05/the-lay-of-land.html?showComment=1368243512088

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous1 Says:
    38

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Uncoveredoption Says:
    39

    Could the 30 yr amort cap be avoided by first taking out a 20%+ downpayment mortgage, and then HELOC’ing 10% in a subsequent transaction?

    The bank should be able to bulk insure this transacton? The 30 yr cap is dodged, everyone is happy?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    40

    Happy 18,000 Party!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 1

    Increases in the homeownership rate are associated with increases in unemployment. Home ownership creates “negative externalities” for the labour market as it impairs labour market mobility and NIMBYist homeowners block economic development that creates jobs.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/challenge-dogma-owning-home-182926523.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    @34
    fyi Rob Chipman’s post also confirmed paulB’s 32 sales.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 40 Thumb down 0

    To all the sellers and RE agents:

    Stop throwing away money on interest, helocs and maintenance.

    Get on with your life,
    reduce your price !

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 0

    #26 Feds gave Genworth rope to hang themselves with. $50 billion in insurance cap is not going to support the market. If Genworth’s loans are “problematic” they will sink.

    This is a totally different story from 2008, when it was $300 billion new insurance cap for CMHC (doubling the old limit) and a directive from the finance minister “to approve as many high ratio loans as possible.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    45

    Prices were in a free fall in 2008. Actions then were aimed at getting prices past the previous peak and rising until the Cons got their majority.

    Actions now are intended to engineer a “soft landing”. You will see more incremental measures if prices start to decline too rapidly in Toronto. But they don’t care about Vancouver.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 1

    george Says:
    46

    The face of personal bankruptcy in Canada is getting older and older.

    Older Canadians facing deeper debt: study

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    CullBull Says:
    47

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    CullBull Says:
    48

    Look at Australia. The peak was three years ago and what have prices done? They have only declined 5%. What’s the point in waiting years for a mere 5%. It is not true that all bubbles crash. Look at australia as an example. And what to australia and Vancouver have in common? Chinese buyers. Read about it in Bloomberg:

    houses in the top 20 percent of the market in Australia’s major cities are about 5 percent below a peak in April 2010, according to Brisbane-based researcher RP Data.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-09/sydney-s-luxury-home-sales-stir-as-stock-rally-lifts-confidence.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 18

    CullBull Says:
    49

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    Anonymous Says:
    50

    CullBull: “All indications are that the soft landing plan is working and will continue to work. A soft landing is not worth waiting for. Just buy now.”

    Wrong. The governments plan is to reduce household debt which is still on the rise. The only way to reduce household debt is to have lower real estate prices. It is pretty simple to figure that out. Household debt cannot keep rising. There are two possibilities. The government engineers lower household debt through a slow decline in real estate (their current plan) or the whole thing blows up like in the US. Either way it means substantially lower prices in the future. The only difference is when the bottom hits whether it be 2 or 3 years from now or 5 or 6 years from now. In either case buying makes no sense.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    51

    Don’t bet against the Canadian Govt? You have got to be kidding?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    52

    CullBull: “They have only declined 5%. What’s the point in waiting years for a mere 5%.”

    So show us an example in Vancouver where buying works out better than renting with a 5% decline in prices over 3 years. FFS even if prices were flat buying would make no sense.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    53

    CullBull: “Don’t bet against the GOC (Government of Canada).”

    The Canadian government actually wants lower real estate prices. That is why they keep tightening lending standards. If you are buying or holding real estate expecting it to increase in value YOU are betting against the Canadian government.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous1 Says:
    54

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    Anonymous1 Says:
    55

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    Joe Mainlander Says:
    56

    As soft landing is worth waiting for. I’d have to pay around $60k in interest for every $100k I borrow for a 20 year loan (to pay off by retiring). I can put away $30-40k per year towards a down payment. That’s a savings of over $20k per year of interest not needed to be paid. Savings on tax, condo fees, heat of $8k. Investment income from the banked down payment of $15k. Minus rent of $15k equals savings of $28k per year. If an $800k condo loses even 2% per year, that’s a further savings of $16k. $44k savings per year sounds pretty good. No rush.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 1

    Seriously? You’re going to blame your rent problems on immigration? Take a breather.

    Immigrants: I thought we don’t want them because they’re buying everything. Now it’s because they’re renting everything?

    Foreign workers: meh. how bad could it be. I wouldn’t mind more engineers and nurses in my neighborhood. Farm workers get room and board I believe.

    Foreign students: all the ones I’ve seen partner up, and rent illegal basement suites. They’ve also been blamed for buying up properties. Is it rent or values that’s being affected?

    Supervisa/Reunification: How many of these do you actually think will rent a separate place from their kids? Hello! free baby sitter.

    We can blame immigrants, snow-geese, and migratory graduates for milking our health and welfare systems, but blaming immigrants for real estate and rents has no numerical evidence, logic, or scale.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 22 Thumb down 14

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    58

    Friend of mine (not in lower mainland) is hell bent on buying. Her annual income is only about $35k per year, so she’s quite limited in what she can buy. This is what she’s come up with:
    She’s going to buy a brand new modular home in a park. The price is about $160k, with CMHC fee and her downpayment, the mortgage will end up being about $155k. Her mortgage payments will be about $380 biweekly, and she will have to pay an additional $350 in monthly maintenance fees, and property taxes $600 per year, and insurance $1000 per year (maybe). I think it’s a bad idea, she says her takehome pay is about $2000 per month, so to me it looks like she will be spending half her takehome pay on housing! Oh, and she has a child (no child support) and has to pay about $250 per month in childcare (elementary school-before and after care).

    The thing I don’t like about it is she won’t own the land…it’s on a 99 year prepaid lease. Anybody else run into these? I know the COV has quite a few of these properties, and a lot of them only have about 60 years left. What’s a property worth if you don’t own the land, I wonder?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    59

    “The Canadian government actually wants lower real estate prices.”

    No, they want flat nominal prices. If they actually wanted lower prices they would take stricter measures.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 4

    BWilson Says:
    60

    Last tailing 4 week sales compared to last year

    April 16-20 2012 = 700 sales
    April 15-19 2013 = 644 sales (-8.0% y/y)

    April 23-27 2012 = 753 sales
    April 22-26 2013 = 564 sales (-25.1% y/y)

    April 30-May 4 2012 = 651 sales
    April 29-May 3 2013 = 711 sales (+9.2% y/y)

    May 7-11 2012 = 652 sales
    May 6-10 2013 = 595 sales (-8.7% y/y)

    Four week total
    2012 = 2756 sales
    2013 = 2514 sales (-8.8% y/y)

    So last week was more or less in-line with the average over the past month. We’ll see how next week tracks – last year there were 654 sales (so roughly flat sequentially). Sales after the long weekend through the end of the month last year were about 5 sales/day lower.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1

    Bull! Bull! Bull! @ patriotz Says:
    61

    are you saying that prices won’t go down more unless the government steps in?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 3 Thumb down 9

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    62

    No, that’s not what I’m saying. Can’t you read?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 7

    Groundhog Says:
    63

    @bwilson

    as i said last week (and got voted down for). Huge y/y sales decreases are unlikely going forward. Sales last year around this time were already very, very low. We’ll likely only see 5-10% max sales decreases over last years numbers
    that is still a very bad scenario.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    64

    Post #57 T:

    I think you drank the Kool-Aid long ago.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

    Bull! Bull! Bull! @ patriotz Says:
    65

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    Anonymous Says:
    66

    What do you think greedy or fair?

    MLS V1005390

    Bought 2011 for $1.8 on the nose.

    Listed for $500K more now.

    Can’t tell from the pictures how much if any renos done.

    Chinese owners.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 3

    Cull Bull Says:
    67

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    Dead Heat Says:
    68

    Gawd, can’t we leave the friggin guvmint out of all this crap and let private enterprise take care of business…as it should be. Taxes and incetives automatically get built into prices anyway and don’t accomplish a bloody thing. But then, some people just cannot be happy unless the got someone to blame.

    The best cure for high prices is high prices, and regardless of soft landing, hard landing or crash, they will come down. Sales are delayed a week or two, and the low sales in the last couple of days could be an indication that sanity has prevailed.
    Welcome to May.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 3

    Cull Bull Says:
    69

    “Gawd, can’t we leave the friggin guvmint out of all this crap and let private enterprise take care of business…”

    That is a nice day dream. Lets get back to reality now.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 3 Thumb down 9

    Groundhog Says:
    70

    @cull bull

    You dont have very good reading skills.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    WagesPerSquareFoot Says:
    71

    @pricedoutfornow#58. The best advice for your friend is to shop her job skills around the country (and world) where wages are higher per square foot of rental accomodation. That could mean either higher wages, cheaper rents, or some of both. Also BC, maybe others, has rental assistance program which pays cash grants to low income families who rent.

    Your friend will probably not do any of those things though. If she’s like most people, she will buy that place and become part of the statistic when her income is disrupted and or she has to move.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous1 Says:
    72

    Cull Bull:

    Most on this blog don’t understand how inflation erodes mortgage debt over time.

    Don’t even try to convince them.

    My uncle bought several homes in Vancouver in the mid 80’s. Still has them. I bet he shaking in his shoes because housing may drop 25 percent. Wonder what happens after the drop.!?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Eddie Says:
    73

    We keep hearing about how real estate in the US bubble states is “coming back” and “recovering”.
    But for 150k you can have this Palm Beach home that sold for 250k in 2003. Not quite as exciting a recovery as the media is making it out to be.

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/8373-Horseshoe-Bay-Rd-boynton-beach-fl_rb/#/homedetails/8373-Horseshoe-Bay-Rd-Boynton-Beach-FL-33472/46581141_zpid/

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    74

    Pricedoutfornow: “Friend of mine (not in lower mainland) is hell bent on buying.”

    As bad of an investment Vancouver real estate is right now, buying a modular home (a trailer) on a lease hold pad is even worse. Modular homes last about 30 years then they are basically garbage. The pad is worth nothing because it is leasehold and you have to pay maintenance fees. She may as well buy a time share. Then add in she can’t afford it. Amazing how people commit financial suicide like this thinking they are doing the right thing. The only good part for her is with her low income and a child bankruptcy will be fairly easy to go through.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

    Strataman Strataman Says:
    75

    #73 “Modular homes last about 30 years then they are basically garbage. The pad is worth nothing because it is leasehold and you have to pay maintenance fees. She may as well buy a time share”

    Or you could say “Condominiums all of them last about 30 years when they are basically garbage. The land is worth nothing because you own a few sq.inches which you cannot independently sell, and you have to pay exorbitant maintenance fees to continue to rent AIR SPACE!!! You might as well buy a time share.!

    How the hell anyone can call Condo owning home ownership is beyond me you are renting airspace! The only differance between a condo owner and the owner of a modular home is the person that owns the modular home can change a window, move the space to a legal titled lot or rent the pad for 30 years like you said and have nothing. The Condo owner?? HHaa ha ha hahah. Screwed blued and tattooed!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 40 Thumb down 5

    VultureBoy Says:
    76

    Good to see you back Strataman. Always enjoyed your posts.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous1 Says:
    77

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 20

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    78

    Except there are 30 year old condos in Vancouver that rent and sell for a lot more than $0/sqft.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 3

    Devore Says:
    79

    How many of them have exploding balconies or leaking envelopes?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 4

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    80

    Devore, almost none of them – but you already knew that.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 4 Thumb down 8

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    81

    “Except there are 30 year old condos in Vancouver that rent and sell for a lot more than $0/sqft.”

    Not without substantial injections of capital over those 30 years.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 5

    Devore Says:
    82

    “Devore, almost none of them – but you already knew that.”

    Shrug, rhetorical statements get equal treatment. Strata Man has proven himself to be a reputable and informative poster, not to mention entertaining. No one is suggesting boom-time construction condos will collapse in a couple of decades. They will be still be standing long after we’re not, continuing to suck thousands of dollars of capital from their owners.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1

    Strataman Strataman Says:
    83

    I was reacting to the condemnation of a modular home purchase in the context of home ownership. The modular home is more free title than any condo. In the interior I have seen them moved from parks to free title.I have also seen 30 year old ones that form a core of custom additions and in fact are free standing houses on free title land.Some are beautiful and some are rag tag. You actually own your modular you can take it away, knock it down, add a room outside. If you need to fix the roof you will do it whenever and if the neighbor needs to fix their roof YOU won’t pay for it.
    High density MFH is here to stay and I am not arguing that. However I wonder how many condo owners are aware that they just went into business with a group of complete strangers? No one can equate strata living to home ownership, they are as different as the modular home is and far more risky. It is a marketing ploy that is very successful!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 2

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    84

    Strataman-can you move a modular home? I was under the impression that since it’s on a foundation, it’s not meant to be moved. I’m not against modular homes, just in this case, my friend seems to be buying beyond her means. But what else is new in Canada these days? Does ANYONE buy within their means? Probably not. At least her debt is “only” 155k, not several hundred thousand like people in the lower mainland.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    85

    “However I wonder how many condo owners are aware that they just went into business with a group of complete strangers?”

    Nobody puts it better. Welcome back Strataman.

    I cannot think of an ownership structure that is so loaded against the interests of the owners. Makes publicly traded corporations, for all their faults, look Utopian.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 2

    BWilson Says:
    86

    Scameron MacNeil pumping condo investment in BC Business

    http://www.bcbusiness.ca/real-estate/tips-for-condo-investment?utm_source=MagMail&utm_medium=BCBusiness+Newsletter&utm_campaign=BCBusiness+enewsletter+09May2013#comments

    His pitch:

    “New condos will have less maintenance issues and a warranty in place. You can often buy early enough in the development process (even before construction starts) and enjoy up to two and half years of potential market growth prior to completion.”

    Of course this fails to mention:

    – On a cap rate basis condos are terrible investments right now you’re essentially speculating on future price appreciation – good luck with that!

    – You face sigificant construction risks (timing and quality of completion)

    – Your deposit could quite likely be almost worthless by the time it comes to complete requiring you to put up a bunch more equity just to complete your sale

    – You’re paying a higher price or as Scameron calls it “New condos can come at a small premium” for taking on much more risk than buying used. In any rational financial market you’d get a better price for taking more risk, but people who buy pre-sales condos obviously aren’t sophistocated investors. They’re realors, politicians, doctors, lawyers, etc. who think they “understand” real estate but stocks / bonds, etc are scary.

    This business model of charging more for pre sales is dependent upon the lemmings assuming prices continue to go up forever, and is slowly getting broken down. Pre-sales should come at a discount to market prices, eventually we will get there but only after a lot of “investors” get burned.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    87

    #83 Can you move a modular home? Yes they are often moved but usually only two or three times usually at least 3 to 5 years apart. I used to move them for BC Forest service staff housing, and also for BC Hydro. Most are two parts but some models are three parts. It takes about a day to separate one and jack it off the foundation onto dolly wheels by an experienced modular home crew.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    omfgitslikegrouponbutforcondosftw Says:
    88

    Wow, it hasn’t even been three months since MAC Marketing Solutions was caught red-handed lying to Vancouverites on the local news, and BC Business is already giving their president column space to make uncontested claims about the benefits of buying presale condos.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 40 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    89

    Went to an open house in West Van. Wildly over-priced renovated view home. At the end of the tour the realtor asked what I thought. ‘The house is nice, the price is bizarre’. I replied.

    He (WASP) took offence. “Well we are in a world-class city (barf) and we are priced internationally. This is not really priced for the local market.”

    “Well since I am not related to any communist party chiefs and I don’t own a sweat shop, I will pass.”

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 50 Thumb down 3

    Sorry Bulls Says:
    90

    The Housing Mirage
    http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2143008,00.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    92

    The most significant part of the article IMHO:

    and the federal government is underwriting nearly 9 out of 10 new mortgages via a multitude of state-sponsored programs and federally backed bonds. If a healthy housing market is one that is inclusive and not dependent on government support, “we’re a long way from there,” says Yale professor and housing expert Robert Shiller.

    The US housing market is only able to support current prices – which are 1/2 those of Canada – because the government is backing it up with mortgage guarantees. The means a truly healthy housing market – one which is stable without government support, as Shiller put it – would have lower prices.

    And a truly healthy RE market in Canada would also have lower prices than the US today.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    93

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 30

    Boombust Says:
    94

    You’re an idiot.

    You wouldn’t know good advice from a mackeral.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    95

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 14

    frank Says:
    96

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 16

    Stupidly went to an open house today. The realtor was annoying. Are there any other kind? The entire place, the apartment in a townhouse and the entire townhouse stank of cat pee. There’s was one set of looky loos (married couples) every 15 minutes so your time with the dufus was just you, the wife and him.

    What topic does he bring up? Bidding wars. And how they’re still happening. And how last year’s spring market was dismal but this year is much, much better. January was bad, then February was up, March not so great and this April was much better than last April. And then back to bidding wars.

    It took all I could not to say, dude, with the smell of cat piss in this old, but well-priced smelly townhouse with one looky-loo every 15 minutes, yer not going to be in a bidding war. Forget it. Maybe his strategy is to provoke a stink bid 20% under asking? No pun intended.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    realist Says:
    98

    @ Anonymous 92 & 94
    Your foul-mouthed attacks on patriotz are abusive, and as such, unwelcome. If you object to his or anyone else’s commentary, rebut their arguments. I have learned a great deal from patriotz & other posters on this blog, and I thank them & VCI admin for the opportunity to do so.

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