FFFA! The middle class Canadian consumer bubble

Hey! You made it to the end of another week!

And do you know what that means?

Friday-free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few links to kick off the chat:

What a housing bubble bust looks like?
Half of Canadians want to buy property
..But 33% are living paycheck to paycheck
Worst May in more than a decade?
Economy shouldn’t rely on consumer debt
150,000 real estate jobs will be lost
How to profit as Canadian bubble bursts
Keep your skills up to date
Sentimental sentiment of anecdotes
Van $1.5 mil vs Carmel Cali $1.5 mil
Flaherty saves us from a housing bubble!
What does the middle class look like?
Broker says don’t worry, buy now

So what are YOU seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest

Will HPI be up for another month? Why do people keep ignoring the month after month price increases? Do the American crash graphs show these characteristics?

Anonymous
Guest

Did cases chiller change their measurement part way through? Or did the NAR? I’m curious,are there many other price indexes that tossed their old system and came with a new one like the REbGV did?

The HPI lost its value with they threw away the ability to compare to historical values beyond a year or two.

Anonymous
Guest

China PMI sucked. Big slowdown again, hard commods weak, but don’t worry, a weakening Chinese economy means a rush to real estate. Or not.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest

“The HPI lost its value with they threw away the ability to compare to historical values beyond a year or two.”

Bears don’t question the hpi when it is going down. But when it goes up its a fraud. Another example of bear logic.

You can’t be wrong for a decade without serious flaws in your ability to reason.

Cory
Guest
More good news for retailers on Robson Street… An American long weekend is about to start and the main road that brings American tourists up to BC has had a bridge collapse! I guess there won’t be too many American tourists in Vancouver this weekend. “Officials in Washington are warning motorists ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend to avoid the area where a bridge collapsed on Interstate 5 north of Mount Vernon last night…Detours have been set up to try to ease the congestion, but drivers have been told to expect major delays. Officials are urging drivers to avoid the… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Dear VCI readers, do you like constant trolling from “you’ve been wrong for ten years” and “enjoy your basement suite, losers” commenters? Take a page from central banks around the world and promise to vote down with absolute certainty any comment that is designed to elicit anger. Do it hard, and do it consistently. Trollers whose comments are voted down within minutes will give up and go away. But you need to promise to do this and show them you mean it, or they won’t take you seriously. I’m all for free discussion but not trolling. If the comments are… Read more »
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest

Sounds like the bears are starting to become fearful and desperate.

Its just like 2009 when all of their hopes were dashed.

What’s that feeling deep in the pit of your stomach, bears? You know its there. That feeling that you might be wrong yet again. That gnawing and sickening sensation that you missed your last chance and are priced out forever.

Will you ever be able to look your wife and children in the eyes knowing that you missed your final chance?

bullwhip29
Guest
Taking a look in one of the key neighborhoods in Rmd, I noticed something very strange. As of a couple of days ago, there were > 40 detached homes for sale in Terra Nova. Most of these have been sitting there collecting dust for 6-12 months (or longer) This morning, that number suddenly dropped to 11 (according to realtor.ca and mls.ca). Anyone care to chime in on this? Was this due to: – a massive wave of buyers suddenly appearing out of nowhere post-election? – a coordinated effort on part of all these disgruntled sellers to cancel their listings en… Read more »
Anonymous1
Guest

From what I see, there is no fear in the market right now. Inventory is not going to spike. As soon as the mainstream media highlights the fact that inventory is lower than last year, buyers will jump in.

Calgary market is going insane. Record low inventory and some are saying prices are going up by $1000 a week rite now. Same thing happening with detached houses in Toronto.

Left already living in San Diego
Guest
Left already living in San Diego

Here is a small reminder that yet another shitty weekend weather coming up for the best place on earth.
Enjoy, and dont forget to go skiing, golfing and boating all in the same day of course.
I will go surfing with the kids.

Seafair dweller
Guest

#8 bullwhip29

You’re right, this is very weird. My guess as to why the listings have mysteriously disappeared is that there was a data error which removed the older listings. Houses have “dropped off the map” in Seafair too, but the “for sale” signs are still on the lawn.

Anyone else hear anything?

Absinthe
Member

Bullx3 ~ My husband and kids are pretty happy in our rental house within cycling distance of work that we could never have afforded otherwise. My husband is especially happy with the nest egg we’ve put away, and some day, my kids will be happy with their RESPs. We’re doin’ pretty dang well, thank you, for median income earners in this expensive city.

CullBull
Guest

“Anyone care to chime in on this?”

Judging by the strong sales numbers of this month, likely all those properties sold.

As always, the answer is in the data.

Bull! Bull! Bull! @ Absinthe
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull! @ Absinthe

I guess that people still read my posts despite the down votes. And congrats on accepting your status as being priced out forever.

VHB INDEX
Guest

The VHB index indicates that the market will increase for another 3 years. When he stops posting, you know that he has concluded that the bust won’t happen. Then he goes into hibernation until the next minor price adjustment. And then he disappears when the bear hopes are dashed yet again.

Absinthe
Member

Bullx3 ~ I have been priced out forever, by any sane financial management strategy, for pretty much the whole time I’ve had a down payment. That’s why I’m on this site: when the choice became “house poverty for family of four in a purchased 2 bedroom in Port Moody” vs. “responsible savings and a family of four in rental house with yard in Vancouver”, I thought something smelled funny in real estate. Still stinks, and will continue to stink, until prices adjust.

Absinthe
Member

( Bullx3 ~ Mostly, though, I thought I’d represent for mama bears. )

Kalamazoo
Guest

Go to New Jersey and order Scotch on the rocks at a restaurant and they give you rubbing alcohol mixed with caramel colouring!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/05/24/business-new-jersey-alcohol.html

Real Estate Pimp
Guest

Re: Terra Nova and Seafair listings.
Yeah, definitely Data error.
I usually check the Steveston listings, which are usually around 60, and now they are down to 11, too.

Real Estate Pimp
Guest

Hey, Bulls.
Just checked with a Realtor about the data problems with the MLS listings.
He says the system has crashed because of the flood of new listings.

Brian Ripley
Guest
RE: Nearly half of Canadian homeowners eager to buy property – “However, Mr. Guatieri said that in the detached home markets in Vancouver and Toronto, affordability remains an issue and high prices are forcing buyers into the condo market.” This week I did an income approach study of a Vancouver Condo to see what the investment results would be with different down payments. My conclusion is that there are two worlds and the world that is buying real estate in bubble cities like Vancouver is made in part of people who do not have employment or financing concerns or care… Read more »
Real Estate Pimp
Guest

Hey Bulls,
If things are so peachy, how do you explain this?
GUARANTEED RENTAL INVESTMENT until 2020.
– monthly rent guaranteed until 2020
– free rental management until 2020
– strata fees paid by the developer until 2020
The developer pays your strata fees and you receive a cheque every month until 2020.
ELLIOT in New West.

jesse
Member

“the flood of new listings”

Flood? In Richmond?

vangrl
Member
pricedoutfornow
Guest
What’s up with the rental market? Have been looking for awhile, haven’t been ready to make a move until now. Just my luck, it seems like there’s quite a bit of supply but the prices seem to be astronomical! Are there really that many people out there who are willing and able to pay $3000 or $4000 for a whole house? Is this just the spring market with landlords trying to get what they can out of spring and summer movers, should we just wait it out until fall/winter? If prices stay this high think we’ll just have to stay… Read more »
mac
Member
Here’s a true story. I’ll call it 20 REASONS THIS COOL SPRING MARKET SUCKS FOR BULLS–Or how I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb! 1. We sold at the last peak. 2. You know what happened after that…housing skyrocketed. 3. We missed that. 4. Our half-house is now worth 165K more than when we sold. Ouch! 5. It was in a neighbourhood we hated. We decided to move every 2 years to try out neighbourhoods before we bought again. 6.. We moved. First into a crazy-expensive dream apt (condo) for a year. Unbelievable view. 7. We wanted to… Read more »
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