FFFA! The middle class Canadian consumer bubble

Hey! You made it to the end of another week!

And do you know what that means?

Friday-free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few links to kick off the chat:

-What a housing bubble bust looks like?
-Half of Canadians want to buy property
-..But 33% are living paycheck to paycheck
-Worst May in more than a decade?
-Economy shouldn’t rely on consumer debt
-150,000 real estate jobs will be lost
-How to profit as Canadian bubble bursts
-Keep your skills up to date
-Sentimental sentiment of anecdotes
-Van $1.5 mil vs Carmel Cali $1.5 mil
-Flaherty saves us from a housing bubble!
-What does the middle class look like?
-Broker says don’t worry, buy now

So what are YOU seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

157 Responses to “FFFA! The middle class Canadian consumer bubble”

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    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    1

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 47

    Anonymous Says:
    2

    Did cases chiller change their measurement part way through? Or did the NAR? I’m curious,are there many other price indexes that tossed their old system and came with a new one like the REbGV did?

    The HPI lost its value with they threw away the ability to compare to historical values beyond a year or two.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    3

    China PMI sucked. Big slowdown again, hard commods weak, but don’t worry, a weakening Chinese economy means a rush to real estate. Or not.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 4

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    4

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 42

    More good news for retailers on Robson Street…

    An American long weekend is about to start and the main road that brings American tourists up to BC has had a bridge collapse! I guess there won’t be too many American tourists in Vancouver this weekend.

    “Officials in Washington are warning motorists ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend to avoid the area where a bridge collapsed on Interstate 5 north of Mount Vernon last night…Detours have been set up to try to ease the congestion, but drivers have been told to expect major delays. Officials are urging drivers to avoid the area, especially over the Memorial Day weekend. Traffic along the heavily travelled route could be affected for some time.”

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/05/24/bc-skagit-bridge-collapse.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    6

    Dear VCI readers, do you like constant trolling from “you’ve been wrong for ten years” and “enjoy your basement suite, losers” commenters?

    Take a page from central banks around the world and promise to vote down with absolute certainty any comment that is designed to elicit anger. Do it hard, and do it consistently. Trollers whose comments are voted down within minutes will give up and go away. But you need to promise to do this and show them you mean it, or they won’t take you seriously.

    I’m all for free discussion but not trolling. If the comments are emotion-baiting they do nothing for this blog.

    Vote them down. Mean it. And do it fast before any more than a handful of readers can read it. A quantitative easing of downvotes to make this site more useful.

    I’m starting right now.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 67 Thumb down 19

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    7

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 63

    bullwhip29 Says:
    8

    Taking a look in one of the key neighborhoods in Rmd, I noticed something very strange. As of a couple of days ago, there were > 40 detached homes for sale in Terra Nova. Most of these have been sitting there collecting dust for 6-12 months (or longer) This morning, that number suddenly dropped to 11 (according to realtor.ca and mls.ca). Anyone care to chime in on this? Was this due to:

    – a massive wave of buyers suddenly appearing out of nowhere post-election?
    – a coordinated effort on part of all these disgruntled sellers to cancel their listings en masse?
    – a data error?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 74 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous1 Says:
    9

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 28

    Left already living in San Diego Says:
    10

    Here is a small reminder that yet another shitty weekend weather coming up for the best place on earth.
    Enjoy, and dont forget to go skiing, golfing and boating all in the same day of course.
    I will go surfing with the kids.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 5

    Seafair dweller Says:
    11

    #8 bullwhip29

    You’re right, this is very weird. My guess as to why the listings have mysteriously disappeared is that there was a data error which removed the older listings. Houses have “dropped off the map” in Seafair too, but the “for sale” signs are still on the lawn.

    Anyone else hear anything?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 1

    Absinthe Says:
    12

    Bullx3 ~ My husband and kids are pretty happy in our rental house within cycling distance of work that we could never have afforded otherwise. My husband is especially happy with the nest egg we’ve put away, and some day, my kids will be happy with their RESPs. We’re doin’ pretty dang well, thank you, for median income earners in this expensive city.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 52 Thumb down 2

    CullBull Says:
    13

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 31

    Bull! Bull! Bull! @ Absinthe Says:
    14

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 39

    VHB INDEX Says:
    15

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 32

    Absinthe Says:
    16

    Bullx3 ~ I have been priced out forever, by any sane financial management strategy, for pretty much the whole time I’ve had a down payment. That’s why I’m on this site: when the choice became “house poverty for family of four in a purchased 2 bedroom in Port Moody” vs. “responsible savings and a family of four in rental house with yard in Vancouver”, I thought something smelled funny in real estate. Still stinks, and will continue to stink, until prices adjust.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 65 Thumb down 3

    Absinthe Says:
    17

    ( Bullx3 ~ Mostly, though, I thought I’d represent for mama bears. )

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    Kalamazoo Says:
    18

    Go to New Jersey and order Scotch on the rocks at a restaurant and they give you rubbing alcohol mixed with caramel colouring!

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/05/24/business-new-jersey-alcohol.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 9

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    19

    Re: Terra Nova and Seafair listings.
    Yeah, definitely Data error.
    I usually check the Steveston listings, which are usually around 60, and now they are down to 11, too.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    20

    Hey, Bulls.
    Just checked with a Realtor about the data problems with the MLS listings.
    He says the system has crashed because of the flood of new listings.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 66 Thumb down 6

    RE: Nearly half of Canadian homeowners eager to buy property – “However, Mr. Guatieri said that in the detached home markets in Vancouver and Toronto, affordability remains an issue and high prices are forcing buyers into the condo market.”

    This week I did an income approach study of a Vancouver Condo to see what the investment results would be with different down payments. My conclusion is that there are two worlds and the world that is buying real estate in bubble cities like Vancouver is made in part of people who do not have employment or financing concerns or care if their condo investment produces a ROI much greater than a 10 year Government Bond.

    The study is here: http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/05/vancouver-condo-yield-case-study.html

    If investment risk is worth considering, I would say Vancouver condos have to come down in price from current average prices of 2007 http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver_chart.html to at least 2005 average prices (another 25% drop) before investors really get excited about a buy and hold model. As it is now the only market is a buy and flip model but the declining Y/Y sales data http://www.chpc.biz/scorecard.html suggests that has fewer participants.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    22

    Hey Bulls,
    If things are so peachy, how do you explain this?
    GUARANTEED RENTAL INVESTMENT until 2020.
    – monthly rent guaranteed until 2020
    – free rental management until 2020
    – strata fees paid by the developer until 2020
    The developer pays your strata fees and you receive a cheque every month until 2020.
    ELLIOT in New West.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 1

    “the flood of new listings”

    Flood? In Richmond?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 2

    vangrl Says:
    24

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    25

    What’s up with the rental market? Have been looking for awhile, haven’t been ready to make a move until now. Just my luck, it seems like there’s quite a bit of supply but the prices seem to be astronomical! Are there really that many people out there who are willing and able to pay $3000 or $4000 for a whole house? Is this just the spring market with landlords trying to get what they can out of spring and summer movers, should we just wait it out until fall/winter? If prices stay this high think we’ll just have to stay where we are (it’s too small). Anyone else feel the same way or am I out to lunch?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    Here’s a true story. I’ll call it 20 REASONS THIS COOL SPRING MARKET SUCKS FOR BULLS–Or how I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb!

    1. We sold at the last peak.

    2. You know what happened after that…housing skyrocketed.

    3. We missed that.

    4. Our half-house is now worth 165K more than when we sold. Ouch!

    5. It was in a neighbourhood we hated. We decided to move every 2 years to try out neighbourhoods before we bought again.

    6.. We moved. First into a crazy-expensive dream apt (condo) for a year. Unbelievable view.

    7. We wanted to treat ourselves. We did.

    8. We loved it but the drug dealers started moving in.

    9. So it was more than OK to move out.

    10. Got another condo rental. It was unbelievably unique.

    11. Patio was under review when we moved in.

    12. Patio repair was estimated at 6K and 6 weeks.

    13. Patio repair cost landlord 11K and took 8 months. Our rent was reduced. It was one of two patios so no biggie.

    14. Landlord had just paid 6K for last year’s repair.

    15. We moved out on 2nd year, windows were leaking. Est. repair for building 11K-17K each unit. Plus front walkways were put on hold by 3 years of repair. Majority owner in building refused all repairs. Lawyers might have been needed. We moved.

    16. Now in City managed building in OV. Great apartment.

    17. Remember #4 above? “Our half-house is now worth 165K more than when we sold. Ouch!” Well, our money is now worth 433K more than when we sold.

    18. We now know: no condos for us. We will get a 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 house on the westside.

    19. We know the neighbourhoods we like.

    20. We are noticing this type of housing in price decline, albeit slow, as our money increases in value, slowly as well but outpacing housing.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 42 Thumb down 2

    Pope,

    Don’t reprint my story as a header. Let’s just keep it in the comments section, please.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    dyugle Says:
    28

    Bullwhip, it must be a data error.
    I look at the Vancouver west side.
    The S.F.H. for sale dropped from 977 yesterday, to 232 today.
    I have seen this happen before. It will be fixed as soon as their members find some of their listings missing from the MLS site.
    Hey trolls check your active listings on MLS; they might not be there.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    29

    ….Here is a small reminder that yet another shitty weekend weather coming up for the best place on earth…

    Vancouver has the best view of clouds in the world.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 12

    Turkey Says:
    30

    @pricedoutfornow,

    Sites like Craigslist are misleading. Remember, they’re a repository of asking rents, and asking ain’t gettin’.

    The problem is, lots of listings are priced to carrying cost (i.e. mortgage payments), not market rents. The market doesn’t care if nobody will pay your mortgage, but that doesn’t stop people from asking anyway. There’s also a tendency for otherwise sane landlords to consult Craigslist for comparables when pricing new rentals; they get stuck in the same trap. When an asking price is reduced to match market rates, it becomes occupied, and invisible. Meanwhile, the unreasonable postings keep piling up.

    The overall effect is a very visible stock of laughably overpriced listings, and a much less obvious (and much more dynamic) stock of realistic listings. My suggestion? Stick with Craigslist, but be picky and patient. If you know the neighbourhood you want to live in, keep your eyes open for “for rent” signs and flyers at corner stores and laundromats.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 2

    Not much of a name... Says:
    31

    @BBB 1

    Why do people keep ignoring the month after month price increases?

    Why do people keep ignoring the year over year price decreases?

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 40 Thumb down 1

    gokou3 Says:
    32

    “It will be fixed as soon as their members find some of their listings missing from the MLS site.”

    I am sure the REALTORS are bummed that their listings disappeared just before the weekend open-house opportunities. Not that those would bring much hope anyways.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

    bullwhip29 Says:
    33

    Looks like the MLS data has been fixed (although none of the photos are posted yet). Some hack definitely screwed up big time. Had one of deleted listings been my own, I’d be pretty pissed off.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    34

    “Its just like 2009 when all of their hopes were dashed.”

    Aren’t condo’s in some area’s below 2009 prices?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

    victoria Says:
    35

    So exciting for Victoria – and this was addressed to Me!!!!!!

    Private pre-auction event – Flipping Victoria with stars of the hit show flipping Boston. I can get a free I pad and a free MP3 player and a behind the scenes DVD. I have been chosen to attend this seminar.

    I will be able to become part of our fast growing network of re investors, make remarkable profits off invesntories of distressed properties and implment quick cash strategies ….. and access private money to invest in my RE deals.

    What a great day!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

    George Soros Says:
    36

    While I think Bull x3 and Troll provide little but spam they do bring up a point. Things are slow and prices are trending lower but they are not crashing.

    I for one think as long as you can get a 5 yr mortgage at 2.9% you will not see prices crash. There are too many financially illiterate people who confuse payment with affordability. These are the low to zero net worth people who lease a new car every year and save nothing. They have bought into the cult of Real Estate and believe prices can go up in excess of inflation over the long term when it is impossible. They will support the market on stories about how their Grandpa bought a house in West Van for $6,000 and now its worth $3.0 mil.

    As long as they can buy a place for $460 per $100,000 borrowed its hard to see prices reverting to their historcial norms. In my opinion we will not see any big price drops until rates go up and that could be a long time. That said, it would not be unexpcted to see the market down 15% from the peak 36 months after.

    I continue to expect a slow melt vs a panic stricken crash. In the meantime I will put my life “on hold” and continue to rent for a fraction of the cost of buying. I will send Bull x3 a postcard from Austria this summer.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 23 Thumb down 4

    bullwhip29 Says:
    37

    @ George Soros
    Prices are down YoY, but have flattened out and turned slightly higher in the last three months. Of course, it remains to be seen if this is just a spring blip or a longer term trend with some legs. I agree that rates are going nowhere for the foreseeable future. Now that the powers that be have tightened, they have some ammo going forward if it ever becomes necessary to relax the rules again.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    “There are too many financially illiterate people who confuse payment with affordability”

    I know it’s hindsight, but someone who kept their marbles, and rebalanced & reinvested a simple portfolio through the GFC — and rented instead of owned — has so far been doing not so poorly.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    George Soros Says:
    39

    Is Bull x3 right? I got these avg prices off Yatter’s site. You be the judge.

    Attached
    2008 $888K
    2009 $831K
    2010 $955K
    2011 $1.20K
    2012 $1.10K
    2013 $1.15K

    An impressive jump of 29.5% or 5.9% per year. After inflation a growth of approx 3.4% per year.

    Detached
    2008 $507K
    2009 $480K
    2010 $542K
    2011 $573K
    2012 $581K
    2013 $549K

    A much less impressive growth of 8.3% or 1.7% per year. After inflation a growth (oops I mean loss) of approx. 0.8% per year

    Apartments

    2008 $420K
    2009 $394K
    2010 $445K
    2011 $483K
    2012 $445K
    2013 $417K

    A loss of 0.70% over the 5 year period or a loss per year of 2.65% after inflation.

    I don’t know how you guys read this but when Bull x3 talks about not being able to look into the eye’s of ones wives and children becuase they didn’t buy on the current “dip” I am not sure what he means? I feel better than ever when I look at these.

    I bet these numbers surpise a lot of people as they did me. I expected them to be much higher. Further these numbers do not take into consideration the purchase costs (2%) taxes, strata, and maintaince. If these numbers were considered I would bet that very few people who bought in 2008 have made any real money in the last 5 years.

    I invite the Bulls to refute these numbers but if you do please provide some colour to your comments other than the usual crap.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 39 Thumb down 1

    CullBull Says:
    40

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 27

    Not much of a name... Says:
    41

    @George Soros

    If you look use the REBGV HPI, the numbers are even less impressive. From the April 2012 report, they show the following the five year comparison.

    Detached – up 15.0%
    Attached – up 2.0%
    Apartment – down 2.4%

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1

    CullBull Says:
    42

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 32

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    43

    Jesse @23
    “flood of new listings in Richmond”
    I know, Freudian slip.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2

    Bull! Bull! Bull! @ Real Estate Pimp Says:
    44

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 29

    mosesupposes Says:
    45

    “If you are stuck raising your family in a condo, then yes, you should be ashamed of your self for being wrong and not buying a house a few years ago.”

    The contest for most obnoxious comment of the day is over! Congrats CullBull! You should be proud.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 2

    DaMann Says:
    46

    @Mac
    “We now know: no condos for us. We will get a 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 house on the westside.”

    This is exactly how I feel too. Absurd prices aside, when you compare the two, I can’t fathom how anyone would rather own a condo over a 1/3 of a house or whatever. Much nicer streets and often with a yard and the houses are not leakers, and to make matters even better, maintenance fees of $120 ish. It’s a no brainer for me. If I had a gripe with the way they are carving up these houses are the bedrooms. 1400 SF and a 2 bedroom? Often these are right in nice leafy neighbourhoods close to schools. Some people have kids. Give me more bedrooms and less bathrooms any day…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    47

    Triple bull.
    Prices are a trailing indicator.
    Sales are a leading indicator.
    Sales fall first, then prices. Capish.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 3

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    48

    Daman,
    Agree, never understood the fascination with the number of bathrooms.
    Probably just another marketing ploy, like the granite counter tops which I hate.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    VMD@work Says:
    49

    @cullbear42
    I’m renting a 50k/year.

    Landlord told me last year he will wait for “a better market” to sell his several recent-builds. I highly doubt he could fetch $750k by now; by next year, maybe more like $700k.

    He’s still got a mortgage to pay (showed me the papers when signing lease).

    I wonder how his recent RE ventures will affect his standard of living..

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

    “As long as they can buy a place for $460 per $100,000 borrowed its hard to see prices reverting to their historcial norms.”

    Even at those rates, the monthly payment on a bungalow still takes 83% of the average household income. That’s hardly a bargain. Over the past 20 years, a bungalow has usually taken up less than 60% of average household income. So while current low rates are part of the story, they do not justify current costs. The only thing that justifies current costs is belief in future appreciation. Take that away and the picture will rapidly change.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 2

    Bull, Bull, Bull,

    Is your only point that those who didn’t bet on SFH on 2008 have lost face? And can’t admit it? Are you looking for some contrition from bears that all their charts and graphs didn’t help them predict this? If so, have at it. But the real estate market is considerably bigger than that. No?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    VMD@work Says:
    52

    (seems like can’t use greater-than or less-than symbols here, VCI will think those are html codes and trunkate them)

    I’m renting a ~3 year old 1900 s.f. house all for myself for ~2k. The landlord/builder was trying (unsuccessfully obviously) to sell at $800k a year ago.

    The landlord mows the lawn, pulls the weeds, planted new trees, shovels the drive way. He even takes out the garbage bins and recycling containers.

    While I continue to save my $2000+/month of rent/buy cost differential (vs buying my target home), in addition to building my potential DP at let’s say, 50k+/year.

    Landlord told me last year he will wait for “a better market” to sell his several recent-builds. I highly doubt he could fetch $750k by now; by next year, maybe more like $700k.

    He’s still got a mortgage to pay (showed me the papers when signing lease).

    I wonder how his recent RE ventures will affect his standard of living..

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 2

    Beuller Says:
    53

    Wow… Bull Bull Bull started posting at 12:54am today and posted continuously throughout the day. What a fucking loser!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 54 Thumb down 9

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    54

    “Agree, never understood the fascination with the number of bathrooms.”

    You must be single…

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 16

    BWilson Says:
    55

    Smart trades in the capital markets make a lot more sense than buying real estate.

    I bought the S&P 500 in C$ back on February 14, total return even with a sell off in the last day or two is +12.76% and I can sell without paying commissions (it’s a Blackrock mutual fund) and with daily liquidity. Makes RE seem like a pretty bad deal doesn’t it? I think that’s why you see a few realtors in youtube videos talk down contributing to RRSPs (who knows what will happen?) People think they “understand” real estate – but I’m pretty sure most of them don’t fully appreciate the affect of having 30 years with a secular decline in interest rates has had. That trade is done. The key to wealth creation going forward is making savvy trades in the capital markets.

    BTW my switch to the S&P 500 was out of the TSX. My call was based on an overvalued CAD, a nasty consumer deleveraging that will take place here in the coming years (potentially leading to a recession) and all the value destroying resource stocks in the Canadian index.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

    DaMann Says:
    56

    ““Agree, never understood the fascination with the number of bathrooms.”

    You must be single…”

    On the contrary, I have two children. I can live with less bathrooms, but you can’t raise a family in two bedrooms. Seriously, 3 bathrooms and 2 bedrooms? How many places do you need to pee? Call me crazy but I prefer a place to sleep than a place to pee.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 4

    bon jovi Says:
    57

    “The landlord mows the lawn, pulls the weeds, planted new trees, shovels the drive way. He even takes out the garbage bins and recycling containers.”

    you found yourself a personal butler with no pay. great deal.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 35 Thumb down 2

    VMD@work Says:
    58

    Over at other forums someone had pointed out noticing more and more advertisements for same-price pre-sale condo assignments – which means the owners (better called “contract holders”) will most likely lose money getting out of the contract.

    a quick search on craigs yielded this ad which was reposted today:
    $489990 / 2br – 778ft² – Sovereign by Bosa Properties
    Assignment…
    Completion: Early 2014, owner motivated, try your offer.

    With no takers for at least 4 months

    the clock is ticking…

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 2

    George Soros Says:
    59

    “When we talk about not being able to look your wife and children in the eye, we are talking about detatched SFHs. Those numbers speak from themselves:

    2008 $888K
    2009 $831K
    2010 $955K
    2011 $1.20K
    2012 $1.10K
    2013 $1.15K”

    Wow if you are bragging about a 3.4% return after inflation (not considering any fees or taxes) you are an idiot.

    An investment in the S&P 500 in 2009 would be up 100%. SFH are not the only way to make money.

    Your comment is doubly stupid when you assume that everyone can buy a million dollar house and those who can’t are failures. That is just ignorant.

    Lastly, the gains in SFH were made in 2008-2010. If one bought in 2011 they have actually lost money over the past two years. When we look back at this chart in three years and at best SFH’s are averaging $1.00K what will you say then?

    The gains have been made, the market is going lower these numbers show it.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 3

    Burbs Boy Says:
    60

    Curious to see what the Forum makes of this little anecdote.

    I am currently interested in a piece of property in the burbs, unique property which is why I would be willing to move on purchasing now at today’s prices. This is land, no house. I am eminently mortgagable… credit scores at almost 900, dual income, large amount of assets. Approached M-Cap, BMO, Enbridge, People Trust, CIBC, TD, and a couple of others for financing. Still waiting for 1 or 2 answers to come in.. but.. 5 institutions say “things have changed, we are not doing that type of mortgage, we are not interested at all” (without even inquiry into our situation). 3 institutions say “we would only consider a higher interest builders mortgage”. And by higher they really mean higher… wow. Remains to be seen if financing can be had.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 30 Thumb down 1

    George Soros Says:
    61

    “In my opinion we will not see any big price drops until rates go up and that could be a long time”

    So you might as well buy. No meaning full correction in prices for the long term. Let inflation eat away at your debt. This is a rational decision. I can’t believe that bears would call buying in such an environment a bad decision.”

    Because a slow melt is -5% per year. Inflation is 2.5% but renting is 50% cheaper.

    So if I follow your logic and buy now I will be losing 2.5% per year in real dollars and paying twice as much as I am to live in the same place.

    You my friend have drank real estate the kool-aid.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 2

    gokou3 Says:
    62

    SFU condos are not doing very well. Just got an email from Condoday.ca (Key Marketing) that they are slashing prices “for tomorrow only” on “Altitude” development by up to $60k or by around 10%. Per them, “This is your chance to own a concrete home in Burnaby for as little as $425 per sq.ft.”

    On the other hand, I see tons of listings in that area in the $400/SF range.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 1

    George Says:
    63

    Latest household credit numbers (to the end of April 2013) from the Bank of Canada:

    http://credit.bankofcanada.ca/householdcredit

    Latest business credit numbers (to the end of April 2013) from the Bank of Canada:

    http://credit.bankofcanada.ca/businesscredit

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    New Listings 199
    Price Changes 137
    Sold Listings 85
    TI:18399

    http://www.paulboenisch.com

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 139 Thumb down 1

    Makaya Makaya Says:
    65

    Another great day for the Bulls… A couple of days ago, we were told the correction was over, sales were picking up, and price would go higher.

    One word: lol!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 6

    good-format Says:
    66

    May, 2013
    Listing so far: 4503
    Sales so far: 2134

    Listing Estimated: 5777
    Sales Estimated: 2782

    Sales in May, 2012: 2837
    (sum of daily numbers from PaulB)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 43 Thumb down 1

    Beuller Says:
    67

    Prediction – once inventory hits 20K, shit will hit the fan.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 5

    @Burbs Boy, bank doesn’t want to have to liquidate an illiquid asset to pay off the mortgage balance. I don’t think this is unique to the current times.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

    chilled chilled Says:
    69

    Makaya Says:
    May 24th, 2013 at 6:51 pm 65

    Another great day for the Bulls… A couple of days ago, we were told the correction was over, sales were picking up, and price would go higher.

    +++++++++++++++

    Give it a bit more time, a Realturd® is sure to associate the laggardly numbers to a bridge failure in WS

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 13 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    70

    That I5 bridge in Washington State did not fall down! It’s just not as high as it used to be. Other bridges are holding out for higher water.

    Burlington Real Estate Board.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    71

    DeMann: “This is exactly how I feel too. Absurd prices aside, when you compare the two, I can’t fathom how anyone would rather own a condo over a 1/3 of a house or whatever. Much nicer streets and often with a yard and the houses are not leakers…”

    There is not much different between 1/3 of a house and a condo. You are still partnered with someone in ownership. Houses are not built out of concrete (like some condos) so you have sound proofing issues. Houses are just as leaky as condos. A little fact most people do not know is the houses built in the same era as the leaky condos also leaked. It is the acrylic stucco with no rain screen that was the problem. Lots of houses built with the same specs. The only difference is most houses have not been fixed and are still leaky and moldy where about half the condos that were leaky are at least fixed. I wouldn’t buy either. Rent if you can’t afford a SFH freehold even after the bubble pops.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    72

    Burbs Boy: “I am currently interested in a piece of property in the burbs”

    Land without a building cannot be rented so much higher risk to finance. Does not qualify for CMHC, etc. Always been that way but maybe things are tighter now. I think you used to need 50% down with no building for a mortgage. Developers pay much higher interest rates. This is why the presale was born to make financing easier for developers.

    How much were you putting as a DP?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

    frank Says:
    73

    The bridge collapse was an Albertan ploy to cut us off from Washington State

    http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/05/24/i5_bridge_collapse_vehicles_plunged_into_water_main_route_cut_off_between_seattle_and_canada.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    74

    Vote down # 54
    I’m not single.
    Please tell me why one needs a bathroom for every bedroom?
    Thanks

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 2

    george Says:
    75

    And the higher stock prices climb, the more convinced participants are that the Fed will not allow a market accident. The more euphoric the market backdrop, the more confident the marketplace is that the securities markets are “too big to fail” – that the Fed will be there providing liquidity abundance irrespective of the data. As always, monetary inflations are as seductive as they are difficult to control.

    http://www.prudentbear.com/2013/05/kurodas-gambit.html

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    76

    George,
    Please explain how all this is pertinent to the RE market in Vancouver.
    Thank you.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    iPhone User Says:
    77

    Admin,

    Any chance of adding Tapatalk support?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 5

    Total days 22
    Days elapsed so far 17
    Weekends / holidays 7
    Days missing 0
    Days remaining 5
    7 Day Moving Average: Sales 130
    7 Day Moving Average: Listings 255
    SALES
    Sales so far 2145
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 648
    Projected month end total 2793
    NEW LISTINGS
    Listings so far 4591
    Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1274
    Projected month end total 5865
    Sell-list so far 46.7%
    Projected month-end sell-list 47.6%
    MONTHS OF INVENTORY
    Inventory as of May 24, 2013 18399
    MoI at this sales pace 6.59

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 48 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    79

    Way to vote down the emotionally vitriolic trolling VCI commenters. Keep it up. The faster they get down voted the faster they leave.

    Free debate on the ideas, but lay off the emotional manipulation. That goes both ways.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 3

    Bull! Bull! Bull! @ Real Estate Pimp Says:
    80

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 31

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    81

    “There is not much different between 1/3 of a house and a condo.”

    1/3 of a house IS a condo. Or are people taking out partnerships on the same title? That would be even worse.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 3

    Lifetime Renter Says:
    82

    Re the bridge collapse: on the NBCNEWS.com site Audrey Sessions of Tourism Vancouver is quoted as follows:
    “Sessions said the busiest time for American tourists visiting the city, often referred to as Canada’s LA because of its art and film-making community, its theaters and restaurants, was any long U. S. holiday weekend like Memorial Day or Martin Luther King Day in January.”
    Canada’s LA! I’ve heard that comparison but only in reference to traffic. But at least we now know the parameters for deciding we are the BPOE. They compared us to Los Angeles. Our traffic is better! Our urban sprawl less extensive! And when it comes to shopping, Rodeo Drive has nothing on Robson Street. Oh they may have more sunshine but all that gives them are those pesky wildfires. That is why we celebrate our nine months of rain. Sure our Art Gallery, with its permanent display of dreary rainforest scenes by Canada’s Da Vinci, Emily Carr, may be lacking but the world will be envious once Bob Rennie has an art gallery at the base of every condo complex. It’s all good.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 2

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    83

    Lifetime renter.
    Thanks, nothing like a good serving of sarcasm that get’s me going in the morning.
    And let’s not forget.
    Vancouver has the Vancouver Film festival and is called Hollywood North :)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 2

    Hovering Says:
    84

    1.5 mil link doesn’t work (perhaps mentioned above)

    here it is again

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=13236703&PidKey=1229953916

    you can post my comments as stories anytime Pope!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    bon jovi Says:
    85

    “. Sure our Art Gallery, with its permanent display of dreary rainforest scenes by Canada’s Da Vinci, Emily Carr”

    ha-ha hilerious …don’t forget Van Art Gallery had Renoir display…all 3 (THREE) paintings that they could find were on display..LOL

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 3

    Democrass Says:
    86

    How Canada’s housing downturn threatens to shake up real estate commissions

    And that means that homeowners who buy and sell homes in the next 10 years will not be making the profits that homeowners who bought and sold in the past decade got used to. More commonly, sellers will be accepting prices that are much closer to what they paid.

    John Andrew, a professor at Queen’s University, suggests the following analogy: When the stock market is rising and you’re making money, then you don’t mind paying a broker a fee, but if you lose money on your investment, then the charges will be upsetting.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/how-canadas-housing-downturn-threatens-to-shake-up-real-estate-commissions/article12146703/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    Chabbar Says:
    87

    Now we have Chinese version of fake MLA doctor…

    http://www.funtrivia.com/askft/Question27605.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

    Chabbar Says:
    88

    Sorry wrong link.

    http://www.theprovince.com/touch/story.html?id=8431593

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    vangrl Says:
    89

    and just to add to the list of closures on West 4th… Mantique and Mavi

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

    Democrass Says:
    90

    “and just to add to the list of closures on West 4th… Mantique and Mavi”

    Most of these kinds of closures are due to landlords wanting to sell to developers who will build condos. It is not necessarily an indication of a bad economy.

    It is an indication of how the real estate bubble has distorted the economy. It is more profitable to tear down and build condos than the rent to a business. And the disruption cause by the bubble makes it hard to run a business that is not real estate related.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 2

    crikey Says:
    91

    @bonjovi (#55 from the previous thread):
    You said “(My friend-come-landlord’s) apartment that was only 6 years old needed major renovations: carpets needed to be replaced, walls needed painting, laundry machines were broken, kitchen cabinets were all scratched, blinds destroyed..anyway he kept (the outgoing tenant’s) deposit but that would not be enough to cover all the expenses”

    You do not mention any details, and though I suppose the tenant *might* possibly been particularly abusive to the rental,but most of what you mention is typically no excuse to keep a deposit.

    A quick rundown of what you mention…

    1) Carpets. It is absolutely standard practice for apartments to expect carpets to need replacing every 5-10 years. You mentioned the place is 6 years old. YUP, time for new carpets! Not the tenant’s fault (unless he severly burned/cut/coloured/damaged them)

    2) Walls. You said they need painting and touching up. Again, that is absolutely standard practice. Normal wear and tear. The tenant has a right to put up paintings, clocks, etc. So the wall will need fixing after every tenant. And paint chipping is normal, etc. Maybe if the tenant decided to repaint or graffitti the walls, the landlord starts to have a reason for charging for a new layer of paint.

    3) Kitchen cabinets. You said they were all scratched. Unless the scratching is egregious, again that is normal wear and tear. People lived there? Yup, scratches are part of everyday use.

    4) Laundry machines. You said they were broken. That is the landlord’s responsibility to fix, just like all appliances! Unless these tenants were savages that obviously kicked and abused the machines, or something like that (Doubtful).

    5) Blinds. You mentioned there were destroyed. Hmm – this is one where the landlord might have a point. But can he prove what the condition of the blinds were before the tenants moved in? Did the tenants sign something when they arrived, agreeing that the blinds were in good condition? If not, it is the landlord’s word against the tenants’, and they hold equal water. The onus is on the landlord to have proof for anything he is going to charge for.

    Many amateur landlords with dollar signs in their eyes really have no idea that normal wear-and-tear are a cost of doing business, and that normal wear and tear CANNOT be a reason to withhold a tenant’s deposit.

    In fact, a friend of mine that was bilked of his deposit by a greedy landlord took the dispute resolution route and won back twice his deposit! His case details were not especially outrageous, and the extra penalty incurred by the landlord is not uncommon. If only more tenants realized this! (for more info, see Residential Tenancy Branch http://www.rto.gov.bc.ca/ )

    I wish more tenants realized their rights, and didn’t let greedy landlords rip them off. Maybe if this information was common knowledge, we’d have less unrealistic amateur property investors thinking that renting out places is a one-way money machine.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    92

    REP: “Please tell me why one needs a bathroom for every bedroom?”

    So you can more than one person can use a bathroom at the same time? I have a 2 bedroom 2 bathroom and there are 2 of us living here. My wife takes 1 hour in the bathroom to ‘get ready’. We lived a short time with one bathroom and it was not very convenient. If we had a couple of kids and a couple more bedrooms it would be nice to have an additional bathroom. I am not sure why people are opposed to bathrooms?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    vangrl Says:
    93

    “Most of these kinds of closures are due to landlords wanting to sell to developers who will build condos. It is not necessarily an indication of a bad economy. ”

    i disagree, have you walked along Broadway from MacDonald to Alma, every 3rd store has a for lease sign on it. Most of the buildings on 4th and Broadway consist of between 3-5 retail units below. It’s not a case where all the retail below one building are for lease, the lease signs are very sporadic. Some retail is thriving (49th parrellel, Browns Social house, Lulu lemon etc..) but most retail is suffering horribly these days.

    I’ve lived in this hood for 25 years and have never witnessed anything like the closures in the last 3 years. Some spaces have had “for lease” signs up for over a year, the landlords are looking for tenants, and not looking to tear-down

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 37 Thumb down 1

    vangrl Says:
    94

    Subway, Chronic Taco, Mandala sushi and Mr.Schwarma have all changed hands as well in the last couple of months. Those owners would not have sold out if business was thriving

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

    vangrl Says:
    95

    also there is rumor Safeway on 4th might be closing. There is talk about them rebuilding to accommodate an underground parking lot and apartments on top, but also rumor circling amongst employees that they might just sell the land. Their business is waaaaaay down, according to management

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1

    crikey Says:
    96

    @vangrl: “I’ve lived in this hood for 25 years and have never witnessed anything like the closures in the last 3 years.”

    How can the general local population to go out and support local businesses when they are too busy paying down being mortgaged to the hilt?

    Instead of so many local dollars flowing to local businesses, which in turn would turn around and spend on other local businesses, etc, etc… creating tax dollars all along the way…..

    Our governments’ support of the housing bubble has helped kill our local economies and doom countless suckers to many years of barely getting by (if that)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 32 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    97

    vangrl: “I’ve lived in this hood for 25 years and have never witnessed anything like the closures in the last 3 years.”

    One reason a lot of businesses are closing on West 4th is the rent is going up substantially. West 4th used to be a low rent area for retail and it is now a high rent area. When the lease expires a new lease rate is set based on the market rate. When many businesses are faced with this rent increase they decide to close. Many will relocate to lower rent areas such as Main Street and the Downtown Eastside. That is why so many of the new hot restaurants and coffee shops are in those areas. Cheaper rent.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    98

    crikey: “How can the general local population to go out and support local businesses when they are too busy paying down being mortgaged to the hilt?”

    Actually the houseing bubble has done the oposite. Most home owners feel wealthier and spend more money by taking out HELOCs or not saving. This has a positive effect on retail. The negative effect happens when prices go down and the wealth effect goes in reverse. We havent seen that yet or it is just starting.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 8

    Democrass Says:
    99

    “I’ve lived in this hood for 25 years and have never witnessed anything like the closures in the last 3 years. Some spaces have had “for lease” signs up for over a year, the landlords are looking for tenants, and not looking to tear-down”

    Here are to famous cases in point. The Starbucks and Robson and Thurlow closed because the landlord wanted a demolition clause and wanted higher rent.

    The old Canadian tire building on Kingsway has a redevelopment permit sign and a for lease sign.

    It will be demolished to build three towers. But in the mean time, the owner will try to rent it out. Probably one will rent it because they know it will be demolished in a few months or a year or two.

    An owner who is looking to demolish is usually at the same time looking for tenants.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

    crikey Says:
    100

    @ Anonymous # 98 “Actually the houseing bubble has done the oposite. Most home owners feel wealthier and spend more money by taking out HELOCs or not saving.”

    You raise a good point. Though I would guess that the effect you are talking about is mostly felt by the business sector with bigger-ticket items like renovations, vehicles, furniture. Those are what people HELOC for, not for a $40 meal at the local restaurant.

    I would think those people generally keep smaller-expenses items as part of regular day-to-day budget, where the mortgage comes out of (except for the especially stupid people who are paying their mortgage with a HELOC). And those smaller-expense businesses are the ones suffering.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    bon jovi Says:
    101

    I agree that some store closure is due to owners wanting to redevelop the site into condos but it is way to many closures not to think that economy is not hurting due to bubble rental pricing.
    I visited Oakridge mall after 2 after 3 year absence from the city and half of the stores are new. What happened with previous business? I guess we will never read in the paper about them since they are failures. I bet good portion of so called “failures” are due to high rents.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    102

    “I visited Oakridge mall after 2 after 3 year absence from the city and half of the stores are new. What happened with previous business? I guess we will never read in the paper about them since they are failures. I bet good portion of so called “failures” are due to high rents.”

    Oakridge mall has changed to serve their changing customer base. Look at the people in that mall. It is a very different demographic than before the real estate bubble.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 5

    Anonymous Says:
    103

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 15

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    104

    Cadillac Fairview kicked a lot of lower-end businesses out of both Oakridge and Pacific Center.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    105

    Democrass: “Here are to famous cases in point. The Starbucks and Robson and Thurlow closed because the landlord wanted a demolition clause and wanted higher rent. The old Canadian tire building on Kingsway has a redevelopment permit sign and a for lease sign.”

    A demolition clause is standard in most leases. It just gives the landlord the right to kick out the tenant in the event the building is demoed. That does not mean the building on Robson will be demoed. Currently there is a new coffee shop in there and there are no DP signs so there is nothing in the works. Starbucks has a store across the street and have opened 4 other stores on Robson Street over the past 10 years. They likely decided to close this store because the figured they would capture most of the business in their store across the street anyway and opening the news stores in other locations along Robson would be better.

    The Canadian Tire just moved. They left because their business model is for larger stores. Once the lease was done they left.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

    @103

    I don’t bother shopping Robson any more because finding parking is a pain and all those “flagship stores” can be found at any local mall. Why pay for parking and get drenched when you can park for free and have cover at the mall.

    Realize it all they want, but in doing so will just cause high turnovers with periods of in-occupancy. Many storefronts on Broadway and W 4th have 1 – 2 new tenants every year. I imagine it’s one sucker after the next signing leases and extending their HELOCs.

    I can’t wait until the HELOC tap runs out and all those landlords dependent on a new sucker taking up the lease suffer.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 4

    Anonymous Says:
    107

    “Why would landlords leave their space empty by pricing out their present business tenants??”

    I am sure there are many times the landlord ends up with less money by being greedy. I have seen for lease signs go up in existing stores only to see the sign taken down a few months later and the store remain under the same ownership. This happens when the landlord tries to increase the rent substantially and the business says they will leave. The landlord then tries to lease it and finds there are no takers at the higher rent so they then settle with the tenant at a lower rent. Since leases are typically 5 or 10 years the rent increase can be substantial due to inflation and the area getting more desirable. The rent increase can make the business no longer profitable but the landlord may be betting there are businesses out there that can be profitable based on other properties rented in the same area. The for lease signs are telling us the landlords are betting wrong.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    108

    The above comments are ludicrous!

    These are multi-billion companies. I don’t think their landlords have helocs. Wow, you really have no clue how the world works.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 13

    Anonymous Says:
    109

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 12

    The landlords don’t have helocs, the tenants do. Most new business’ are encouraged by the banks to use their Heloc rather than apply for a loan.

    Funny, I don’t recall many “global” stores you can find on Robson that you can’t find in Metrotown, Richmond Centre, or Oakridge Mall.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    MOI guy Says:
    111

    Waaaay late, but here are the MOI numbers for March 2013.

    BC Northern
    Inventory: 2214
    Sales: 284
    MOI: 7.8

    Chilliwack
    Inventory: 1594
    Sales: 168
    MOI: 9.5

    Fraser Valley
    Inventory: 7885
    Sales: 1039
    MOI: 7.6

    Greater Vancouver
    Inventory: 16522
    Sales: 2373
    MOI: 7.0

    Kamloops
    Inventory: 2004
    Sales: 191
    MOI: 10.5

    Kootenay
    Inventory: 2729
    Sales: 104
    MOI: 26.2

    Okanagan Mainline
    Inventory: 5579
    Sales: 433
    MOI: 12.9

    Powell River
    Inventory: 199
    Sales: 26
    MOI: 7.7

    South Okanagan
    Inventory: 1607
    Sales: 83
    MOI: 19.4

    Northern Lights
    Inventory: 250
    Sales: 27
    MOI: 9.3

    Vancouver Island
    Inventory: 5380
    Sales: 473
    MOI: 11.4

    Victoria
    Inventory: 3479
    Sales: 460
    MOI: 7.6

    Provincial Totals
    Inventory: 49442
    Sales: 5661
    MOI: 8.7

    Outside Vancouver
    Inventory: 32920
    Sales: 3288
    MOI: 10.0

    I’ll try to catch up to the present over the next little while. Next weekend I’ll have April stats up, followed shortly by May. Have a great weekend all!

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 46 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    112

    crikey: “Though I would guess that the effect you are talking about is mostly felt by the business sector with bigger-ticket items like renovations, vehicles, furniture. Those are what people HELOC for, not for a $40 meal at the local restaurant.”

    Correct, but all those businesses you named that are booming due to the bubble have owners and workers who are spending money they wouldn’t have if there was no bubble. So it is still good for the retail sector while the bubble is inflated. That is why the government did it here and around the world. It temporarily stimulates the economy. The problem is what happens after the bubble.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

    vangrl Says:
    113

    “One reason a lot of businesses are closing on West 4th is the rent is going up substantially. West 4th used to be a low rent area for retail and it is now a high rent area. When the lease expires a new lease rate is set based on the market rate. When many businesses are faced with this rent increase they decide to close”

    this is correct, that is the case with some of the businesses on 4th, but there are some available for sub-lease as well.
    There are also some blocks on 4th where the new agreements aren’t much higher than the old ones, (one guy owns a bunch of retail along the 2200 of west 4th), the businesses that have come and gone along that one block in the last few years are crazy! they only last a year or two, and two of them (cupcake shop and flower shop) only lasted about 6 months. These aren’t companies that are ending a cheaper lease and can’t afford the newer one, these are companies going in knowing what there lease will be.

    But i agree that there are some 10 year leases ending on 4th and that’s why they are moving or closing down

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

    vangrl Says:
    114

    I give “Spa on the rocks”, and “urban outfitters” about a year…those places are dead as a doornail during the week.

    I wish them no harm, and i find it really sad, but there is just so long that any company can warrant staying open.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    vangrl Says:
    115

    there is however a new Craft Beer & Tapas place going in the space that Room18 was in…pretty excited about that!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    vangrl Says:
    116

    oh and “Peaceful Restaurant” is going in where Mandala was….REALLY excited about that!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

    vangrl Says:
    117

    “Correct, but all those businesses you named that are booming due to the bubble have owners and workers who are spending money they wouldn’t have if there was no bubble. So it is still good for the retail sector while the bubble is inflated”

    all’s i know is that a lot of my friends that bought in the last 5 years, do not have as much free cash to meet-up with me for dinner..

    They aren’t really feeling the wealth effect. These are friends working in the post office, retail, receptionists, etc.. that felt the need to have to jump in the market (you know why) and buy a $400,000 550 sqft apartment in Gastown or O.V or just off main. These friends all make about $45,000 – $55,000 a year, and of course have super low interest rates on their 5% down mortgages. I don’t even want to talk about my friends that work in film, they don’t even know when their next paycheck is coming in.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

    Anonymous Says:
    118

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 15

    crikey Says:
    119

    @Anonymous #112

    At the very least we can agree on what I was saying earlier:

    Our governments’ support of the housing bubble is helping kill our local economies and doom countless suckers to many years of barely getting by (if that)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

    UBC in Crisis Mode Says:
    120

    In today’s Globe and Mail “Done Deal” section:

    Unit 3503, 33 Smithe St.

    List Price $1,698,000
    Sale Price $1,600,000

    Previous Sale Price: $1,798,000
    Days on market: 175

    I guess the owner/seller did not make money.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 1

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    121

    @Anonymous # 92
    My wife spends 1 hour in the bathroom to “get ready”.
    Sorry pal, but you left yourself wide open.
    But I’m gentleman, so I won”t go there. :)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 13

    Anonymous Says:
    122

    Haha density increases jack up values, yes, and the new owners get to be part time amateur landlords at low return, and get little more than a glorified multi unit dwelling, with all the overhead to boot.

    Sounds like a winner. I’ll stick to my basket of stocks. I won’t share the returns out of respect.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    123

    vangrl: “they only last a year or two, and two of them (cupcake shop and flower shop) only lasted about 6 months. These aren’t companies that are ending a cheaper lease and can’t afford the newer one, these are companies going in knowing what there lease will be.”

    These are just amateur business owners thinking they can copy a business idea that looks fun and make money. The problem is the business they are copying likely isn’t making money. I see these cupcake shops going up everywhere because there was one successful cupcake shop on Denman. None of them last. It is more to do with there just is not enough demand for overpriced cupcakes. You can buy cupcakes at Safeway for 1/4 the price. Flower shops also look like fun but never last. Again the grocery stores sell flowers for half the price. The product expires in a few days. Just a bad idea to start with.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 21 Thumb down 3

    Anonymous Says:
    124

    vangrl: “all’s i know is that a lot of my friends that bought in the last 5 years, do not have as much free cash to meet-up with me for dinner..They aren’t really feeling the wealth effect. These are friends working in the post office, retail, receptionists, etc.. that felt the need to have to jump in the market (you know why) and buy a $400,000 550 sqft apartment in Gastown or O.V or just off main.”

    Yes but for each of those friends who bought now there is $400,000 put into the economy (that your friends borrowed). Someone got that $400,000. That more than makes up for your friends spending less in the short term. The problem is in the long term like in 5 years when your friends are still paying half their wages towards housing that $400,000 is long gone from the economy.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 11 Thumb down 9

    Anonymous Says:
    125

    The wealth effect is supposed to describe consumption versus saving. If someone has excess earnings they either spend it or save it. If they have an increasing or already large home equity cushion they are more likely to consume. This effect doesn’t apply for those who don’t have excess earnings, like house poor money renters.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 5

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    126

    Wow,
    517 open houses in Vancouver West this weekend!
    Gotta be a record.
    Sure sign that sellers are getting desperate.
    And the realtors, again, are putting in extra hours for little to show for.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 3

    Ford Prefect Says:
    127

    MOI #111: I am based in Comox Valley. I find that the MLS numbers put out by VIREB do not coincide with my numbers taken from MLS – April 2013 VIREB inventory figures are low by around 220 units. I also know that there are at least 113 lots for sale in the Comox Valley through realtors but not on MLS. So the total inventory is around 1,300 units not the 982 given by VIREB. And MOI is around 18 months for all properties (SFH appear to be selling slightly more rapidly).

    It appears to me that all figures put out by any real estate board have to be taken with a large grain of salt – they are never audited or even reviewed because no one except the real estate industry has access to them. And we know that they show raw sales data that mysteriously gets revised downward by the time y/y comparisons come out the following year. Thus the true sales figures are probably lower than shown and the true inventory is higher.

    Overall I think the true MOI is probably far worse than the figures given in your posting.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 2

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    128

    “If someone has excess earnings they either spend it or save it. ”

    The “wealth” effect as experienced during bubbles doesn’t have much to do with whether people save or spend excess earnings, but with people borrowing and spending against their perceived “wealth”. In other words negative savings.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 23 Thumb down 3

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    129

    Simple put,
    The wealth effect makes homeowners “think” they are richer than they are.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 2

    Yalie Says:
    130

    Scotiabank’s new slogan:

    You’re poorer than you think! ™

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 2

    crikey Says:
    131

    The wealth effect one applies to people whose property value has risen measurably since they bought, no? And even then, only a fraction of those people are stupid enough to start HELOCing a bunch of big ticket items.

    So the wealth effect does not effect all those people with low-paying jobs that were barely able to drag themselves into a mortgage but have not much of any rise in their property values. These are the people that can no longer afford to support the local restaurants, cupcake places, and other various small businesses. Though I do agree, the cupcake businesses probably had their fates baked in ;)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    I laugh every time I see a new cupcake business opening up. They’ve sprung up all over the place in the past few years–and they rarely stay in business longer than a year. Only people with money to burn would pay for over-priced cupcakes. If I want a really good cupcake, I’ll make my own for the fraction of the price they charge at these cupcake businesses.

    The cupcake businesses have been a fad across North America recently. There was even a reality TV show about them called Cupcake Wars! The cupcake businesses have had a lot of press too. It’s feeding into memes about entrepreunerialism and women’s empowerment through business. The reality is most of the people opening up these cupcake shops have no idea about business and how to make a profit. They’re just living out some fantasy about wanting to run their own business. It turns out to be a very expensive fantasy when the business goes bankrupt. There’s more to running a business than being able to make a mean cupcake!

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 19 Thumb down 2

    Van Coffee Says:
    133

    Re: Cupcakes (and amateur landlords)

    Lots of bankruptcies and low returns because…….wait for it…..

    THERE ARE ZERO BARRIERS TO ENTRY…..

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 17 Thumb down 2

    Groundhog Says:
    134

    “Lots of bankruptcies and low returns because…….wait for it…..

    THERE ARE ZERO BARRIERS TO ENTRY…..”

    Applies to Real Estate as well?

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

    UEL rare found Says:
    135
    Anonymous Says:
    136

    For about 300K you can own your own cupcake franchise. How many cupcakes would you need to sell to cover overhead and pay that off? It makes buying a condo in Vancouver look like a shrewd investment.

    http://cupcakesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/franchise_capital_investment1.pdf

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

    Coming to Richmond BC in 3,2… [Richmond Hill approves policy to avoid street number 4]
    May 15, 2013
    If you don’t like the number 4, you don’t have to live with it.
    That’s the decision of Richmond Hill councillors, who this week agreed that no new number 4s will be used in street addressing and those with a current 4 can apply to change it with a letter suffix such as 4B, with costs borne by the resident or business owner.

    The Chinese word for death sounds similar to the number 4. This has led to superstitions surrounding that digit (known as tetraphobia). In China, for example, floor numbers often skip the number 4.

    Ward 3 Councillor Castro Liu seconded his motion, saying he has received “non-stop calls and e-mails” on the issue.

    One resident, who bought a home 20 years ago with an address of 44, has been unable to sell the home after 10 months on the market, Mr. Liu said, while others in the area are selling quickly.

    Councillors Nick Papa, Lynn Foster and regional councillors Vito Spatafora and Brenda Hogg disagreed, raising concerns over emergency responders and safety.

    Shane Baker, commissioner of community services, said any deviation from the normal progression in street addresses has potential to create confusion and a delayed response by emergency services.

    Ms Foster referred to a medical emergency in her neighbourhood last summer at 401 Tareyton Rd., which recently changed its number.

    “We saw fire trucks circling. They were about to break the door down on 410.”

    A neighbour helped them find the home, but it could have been a serious problem, she said.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 2

    gokou3 Says:
    138

    ““Lots of bankruptcies and low returns because…….wait for it…..

    THERE ARE ZERO BARRIERS TO ENTRY…..”

    Applies to Real Estate as well?”

    Yes, and that’s why RE prices always go back to equilibrium, however the bulls like to dream otherwise.

    Btw, the cupcake business makes me think of Beard Papa, the cream puff business. In the beginning, it has one store at aberdeen centre and there was half-hour lineups for their stuff. Now several stores have sprung up in several prime locations (metrotown, denman, etc) and there’s no line and little business.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    140

    Called a guy today about a house he has for rent. Turns out he’s only renting the upper (for more than what the market will pay, I think, considering I’ve seen it advertised for awhile). Since we really don’t want to rent half a house and live in fear about who lives in the basement (and share laundry), we asked why he doesn’t just rent the whole house. He said he can’t, it wouldn’t cover his mortgage-he’ll get more to rent it out as two suites. These new landlords are hilarious, thinking that rent will cover their mortgage!
    By running the numbers, it looks to me like he put $400k down (he told us how much his mortgage payment is). I also think it’s a failed flip-I’ve been watching it awhile and when I googled the address two weeks ago, it was for sale and there was an open house that weekend-though another google search tells me the Vancouver sun featured it in their real estate section as being bought in December 2012. This guy must be panicking….I think our time has come, bears! Anyway, it’s a nice house, maybe we’ll be able to buy it for $400k one day (lol)

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 36 Thumb down 1

    kabloona kabloona Says:
    141

    VMD….thanks for the post #137. Richmond Hill…that’s my old ‘hood. And by the way, my old Ward 5 City Councillor Nick Papa is an illiterate idiot.

    I used to get his incoherent ramblings in my mailbox at regular intervals. Wrote him a letter once to ask his position on a particular issue (about my Municipal taxes being re-directed from York Region to the coffers of the GTA) and of course I didn’t receive a reply. Probably couldn’t comprehend the message….

    Did I mention he’s a REALTOR™….?

    Moron….

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    142

    VMD # 137
    Those superstitious Caucasians should be able to change their house numbers with a 13 in it. For a fee, of course.
    Also, superstitious Chinese should be able buy extra 8s.
    This extra income should help the cash starved municipalities.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 16 Thumb down 6

    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    143

    Or we could just tell people who are superstitious for any reason to grow up, and that they should stop expecting others to cater to their stupidity.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 45 Thumb down 1

    kabloona kabloona Says:
    144

    Damn right. Wearing no. 13 is killing Pavel Datsyuk…it’s just killing him!

    ;-)

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    145

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

    Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 17

    crikey Says:
    146

    “The Chinese word for death sounds similar to the number 4.”

    I can respect that.

    While we’re at it, there are many Christians that live here.
    3 is sacred to Catholics — it represents the Holy Trinity. So let’s respect that by keeping it out of addresses too please.

    40 has recurring significance in the Holy Bible. That one is now off limits too please.

    Jesus Christ had 12 apostles. So it is offensive to see the number 12 used anywhere but in the holiest of places.

    Equal rights for everyone, let’s ban all these numbers please.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 18 Thumb down 3

    kabloona kabloona Says:
    147

    Are you serious….then what are they?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

    gokou3 Says:
    148

    “let’s ban all these numbers please.”

    While we are at it, ban all languages too. Feels so discriminatory every time I don’t understand what another person says.

    /sarcasm

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    149

    Kabloona!
    Forgot the :).
    Canadians have no sense on humour when it comes to talking about different races and cultures.
    Must not offend anyone. We are nice Canadians.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 6 Thumb down 4

    @Real Estate Pimp #143

    It’s the only the older buildings that don’t have a 13th floor. All the new condo towers include a 13th floor.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

    Bally Says:
    151

    REP # 149:

    I don’t think it was a lack of sense of humour so much as not being able to identify anything funny in the original statement.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

    Real Estate Pimp Says:
    152

    A,
    Thanks for the clarification.
    Do they have a 4th floor, though?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    153

    “Canadians have no sense on humour when it comes to talking about different races and cultures.
    Must not offend anyone.”

    Except Americans, of course. It’s OK to make fun of our original colonial masters too.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

    Anonymous Says:
    154

    Richmond Hill…
    I remember mayor Duffy from the early 80s, sold farmland to developer friends for huge profits, it used to be a sleepy hamlet, then they started rezoning farmland and eventually environmentally sensitive areas.

    I know BC gets a bad rap but what I saw there was worse than anything I’ve seen in Vcr

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    Devore Says:
    155

    @Turkey

    “There’s also a tendency for otherwise sane landlords to consult Craigslist for comparables when pricing new rentals; they get stuck in the same trap. When an asking price is reduced to match market rates, it becomes occupied, and invisible.”

    Over long term, Craigslist is a repository of units that have NOT rented, like MLS is a repository of houses that have not sold, so by definition everything there is overpriced relative to market.

    However, it is difficult as a potential renter to know what the market price is. There are stats from Stats Canada and Sauder and the like that show aggregate rents for the region, but no granular data. Then you have landlords not raising rents on existing long term tenants as quickly as new rentals; and why should they, they’re renting a depreciating asset.

    In the end, if you feel someone is asking too much rent, give them your offer, or move on. Walk the neighbourhoods you are interested in looking for vacancy signs, and be the first to view new well priced listings.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Devore Says:
    156

    @Real Estate Pimp

    “Agree, never understood the fascination with the number of bathrooms.
    Probably just another marketing ploy, like the granite counter tops which I hate.”

    Granite countertops are definitely not what they’re hyped up to be.

    But the bathroom thing… it’s just part of a trend of changing tastes and lifestyles. Houses used to be chopped up into little rooms, the kitchen was in the back of the house, closets were the size of a door, and there was one bathroom for the whole house. Basements were for storage and workshops, and attics for keeping old pictures and xmas decorations.

    Now we have walk in closets, ensuites, half-baths for guests and entertainment areas. Basements are for man caves and “mortgage helpers”. Attics are for master bedrooms and home offices. Open floor plans are preferred.

    The trend is now to his and her closets with a sitting/dressing/make-up area. The master bathroom is now an expansive spa with dual sinks. Every bedroom gets its own bathroom. Walls? What walls.

    Some of it is fine. For example, houses are much more energy-efficient now and we don’t need to seal off parts of them to save on heating and cooling costs. More usable floor space is freed up where previously there was a boiler and furnace in the corner, and open areas are multi-use and flexible. But a lot of it is HGTV-style one-upmanship marketing and over the top faux affluence.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

    The absolute best way to truly get rid of acne is through a natural, healthy, and happy lifestyle.

    Other treatments have promises of skin looking young.
    Deep conditioning or hot oil treatments from a salon can help combat the problem but it
    is also expensive and time consuming.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 4

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