Canada, data, debt, economy

Getting out of debt too hard for some

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60 Comments

When it comes to getting out of debt, Canadians have the best intentions.

But habits are hard to break.

PWC ran a survey last year where 64% of the people intended to cut their debt levels.

Unfortunately the follow up this year shows that only 23% had any success in doing so, 26% reporting that they were ‘completely unsuccessful’.

Noting that the current debt-to-income ratio sits at more than 160 per cent, the consulting firm called the trend to higher debt levels “unsustainable” for consumers.

“Similar with any diet, saying you’ll cut back and make better choices is one thing, while actually doing it is quite another,” said John MacKinlay, a national financial services consultant at PwC.

“We advise Canadians to take a hard look at their discretionary spending and prepare to make some tough choices on where to trim the fat.”

Read the full article here.

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emmi

, the bank has already matched the loan to a debt instrument though. Rising rates are good because they make more on the *next* loan. They are set up now to make money on churn and only a little for ongoing management of debt.

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DamienC

Bull bull bull #57

With the inventory of last year, prices went down. Today we have even more inventory and lower sales. Do you see prices going up? lol

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rp1

Nice comment #54 by Short’em High. If by chance you haven’t read it, you may like the book Fortune’s Formula by William Poundstone. It sounds like it’s right up your alley.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

wow! you really made me eat my words! maybe at this rate may 2014 the inventory will reach 17,700! wouldn’t that be something?! and may 2015 could be 18k party in may! SURELY the crash will happen then.

Makaya Says:
Bull, here is the inventory for last year: May 1, 2012: 17,122
Sucks to be a bull, eh?

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Short'em High

@#55. In Victoria, apparently the Earth now circles the Sun every 6 months. Still, that may be more transparent than BCREA Muir’s mysterious “seasonal adjustment” which is never disclosed for method or consistency of application.

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DamienC

VREB stats are out.

http://www.vreb.org/mls_statistics/current_statistics.html

Notice the 6 months average price comparison from March to April 2013 (WTF !) to hide a DECLINE Y/Y

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Short'em High

@VDTF#48. Re: “All gambles are not worthwhile.” Forgot to reply to that point, which is an important one that I think many don’t properly understand. What I meant to say was “all WINNING gambles are not worthwhile”. For once I am glad @VDTF caught a missing word in my comment. It is possible to win in a lucky streak despite long odds, poor payout, or both. For those gambles it is better to be the house than the player in the long run because luck runs out long before the player realizes it has run out. The main point is that those who believe that successful trading or gambling is about knowing the future instead of knowing your edge never last. This gets back to the original point about the significance of Friedberg’s outlay on the short bet against Canadian… Read more »

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patriotz

The real cost of home ownership

The sucker’s analysis of whether it’s affordable to buy a first home is to compare the cost of rent and a mortgage payment.

Any veteran homeowner can tell you that mortgage payments are only a portion of what it costs to own a home. First-time buyers may be familiar with additional costs such as property taxes, but there’s a whole range of other expenses that are sporadic and thus hard to quantify.

Of course in Vancouver, it’s obvious that buying doesn’t make sense just by comparing the rent and mortgage payment alone.

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someguy

@VDTF 47

What the 300 listings means is that inventory continues to remain higher than last year in the height of the selling season while sales remain lower. Having the inventory lower would be a bit of a chink in the bear’s armor.

It will be interesting to see if May can find a way to change a few indicators from red to yellow.

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Anon7823498723

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Short’em High.

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Short'em High

@VDTF#48. No, I’m not a chartist. For a general treatment on that particular cognitive deficit see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia

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Short'em High

Hey, a Q&A session. http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=TMC.TO&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=FC.TO&ql=1 One problem with small cap firms in Canada I remember from the days of shorting income trusts is that securities without institutional shareholders can be in their own reality distortion bubble. It’s funny to think about it, but there are people who hold small cap shares that don’t seem to have access to any form of communication with the outside world for months or even years at a time. LOL! I guess they start wondering months after the dividend cheques stop arriving. That being said, and not knowing anything about the particular exposures of these firms, I would apply a simple and conservative volatility allocation rule. If the price can rebound by from a low by a maximumm 5%, then your short should be sized small enough so that it can withstand say a 10%… Read more »

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Vote Down The Facts

“All gambles are not worthwhile.”

Well, duh. But it sounds like you’re a chart reader anyway?

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Vote Down The Facts

Makaya, please don’t tell me you consider the 300 inventory difference between May 2012 and May 2013 to be significant? It’s 2-3 days of sales – big deal.

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Anon7823498723

What do you think of shorting TMC or FC (listed on TSE)?

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Short'em High

@gokou3#28. Unfortunately, I really don’t pick them that way, but I do like Ben Rabidoux’s narratives. Truth be told, I will trade anything liquid that’s “on the ropes” so to speak. My actual trades are very technical with respect to price, volatility, and allocation rather than fundamentals. I also pay attention to indexes, currencies, commodities, and interest rates to know if I’m trading the company or the macroeconomic situation. I prefer to trade derivatives or currencies but I’ll wade in there to give somebody a punch in the face that desperately needs it. Facebook comes to mind as an example. LOL! That being said, I do like those NYSE USD listed Canadian financials given the situation where our central government thinks it can shelter a financial bubble from being popped. If those financials drop as smoothly as they went up,… Read more »

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Groundhog

@bull,bull,bull

yes, i think long term

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Ford Prefect

“MLS inventory figures” should read “VIREB figures”

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Ford Prefect

I am not sure how accurate the inventory figures put out by the real estate boards are. Example: if you search MLS for “Denman Island” you will get 47 matches. If you search the real estate list put out by John Cooper at http://islandlifestyle.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Aprilforeclosure.pdf (and kindly provided by Yellow Helicopter a few days ago) you will find four foreclosures on Denman Island, each with an MLS number. If you enter one of those numbers you will get a full MLS blurb on the property. But that is the only way they appear. They do not appear on the MLS Denman Island list even although they are described in the blurb as being on Denman Island. It seems that realtors have access to a different list from that of the public. It is too long to cover here but I have… Read more »

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mac

Why do you guys even reply to bull, bull, bull? You vote him down then revive his comments by quoting them in your own posts that get voted up thereby enshrining his comments? Strange.

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Makaya

Bull, here is the inventory for last year: May 1, 2012: 17,122
Sucks to be a bull, eh?

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Short'em High

That’s 567 expired listings! Listing counts in the next couple days should be interesting…

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JR

Ah Bull, don’t you love the smell of a sub 40 sell list ratio in the height of the season!

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Short'em High

@VDTF#27. All gambles are not worthwhile. In fact there is a formula which tells one the exact bankroll fraction to bet on every wager in order to maximize bankroll growth over the long run.

By knowing the present outlay of a successful trader on a particular bet with respect to their total assets, one can get a very good idea how big the payout really is, probability held constant. Every player has a limited bankroll, even Warren Buffett. They all have to use the same formula to stay alive in the game.

So no, a speculation that pays off because of luck is not worthwhile – this point is obviously lost on a person who bets everything on an overpriced home mortgage with the idea that it might pay off.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

is the 18k party postponed again? awww.. shucks!

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