Guess the market trend

Is the market picking up after last years slide?

Troll shared these numbers in the previous thread:

Here’s some facts for the navel gazers to vote down:

Apr 1-15: 115 sales/day
Apr 16-30: 127 sales/day
May 1-8: 137 sales/day

Sales are strengthening during a time that they usually begin to fall off. MOI is also falling. Like it or not bears, this market is beginning to show some signs of strength. Not so simple to just dismiss as a bull trap.

Then frank pointed out we’re still pretty high on the inventory front:

Here’s VMD‘s interpretation of the trend:

Been on vacay in remote areas without internet..
to further Troll #103′s stats:

So far in May: 137/d vs 133 (2012) vs 160 (2011)
Apr 16-30: 127 (2013) vs 140 (2012) vs 159 (2011)
Apr 01-15: 115 (2013) vs 154 (2012) vs 147 (2011)

Look at May vs Apr sales in last few years:
2012: 2853 2011: 3377 2010: 3156 2009: 3524

The statement that “Sales are strengthening during a time that they usually begin to fall off” is incorrect. Sales almost always fall off in June (except 2009), not May.

and here’s Trolls response to that:

I don’t like using monthly numbers because they are skewed by the number of business days, one or two extra days can skew the numbers. I think a better measure is sales/day. For example you show increasing sales for 2012 from April to May, but if you break it down by sales per day, you get the following:

Apr. 1-15: 154 sales/day
Apr. 16-30: 144 sales/day
May 1-8: 133 sales/day

Falling just as I said.

So what do you think? Are we seeing enough of a trend reversal yet to say the market is strengthening or is it a normal spring bump on a long hill down?

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Short'em High
Guest
Short'em High
@mclovin#118(previous thread). C$ short, long, or flat per Canadian unemployment 5:30AM Friday, I don’t know yet. I can’t do anything until there is a price move to follow – which may come as late as Friday 5:30AM plus one second if anything happens at all! I don’t predict or forecast. Unfortunately, this idea is foreign to 99% of people who have ever watched business media for investing tips. For a different perspective about developing scientific signals for the problem of “Guess the market trend”, refer to David Harding’s remarkable interview clip below. He doesn’t make forecasts or use fundamentals either – much to the irritation of the CNBC talking head left wanting for the usual gimmicks. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000015574 [I should also point out that moving around a “few bucks” in the markets for quick profits has a different list of priorities… Read more »
Short'em High
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Short'em High

I think Troll is correct about using sales per day comparisons. Here is a chart I did that not only compared sales per calendar day, it also used that number to seasonally adjust the 13+ years of sales data in an equitable way – by peak annual sales per day.

http://postimg.org/image/u21a1xymx/

Earlier years were adjusted to match the current years’ peak sales per day month thereby enabling previous years to be accurately superimposed for a simulation of what would happen if 2013 proceeded in the scenarios of 2008, 2010, and 2012.

The rationale for using calendar days instead of business days is that RE sales decisions can happen any time including weekends, holidays, and days away on vacation. When people are house horny, they think about it 24×7.

patriotz
Member

Master of doom Marc Faber is feeling gloomy about Canada

The real estate market is key to his sour outlook on Canada. He thinks the Canadian housing market may very well be in bubble territory, and not just in Toronto and Vancouver, but also in other major cities such as Calgary where there has been significant price gains in recent years. He’s not necessarily calling for a crash, but suggests there certainly could be significant depreciation in real estate values ahead.

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Aggregator
Guest
Aggregator

“Is the market picking up after last years slide?”

If there is a slight pick-up in resales (if any), then it’s more likely due to the expiration of first-time home buyers credit for newly built homes (presales). So basically resale realtors are taking sales from presale realtors, as a whole, both markets are still declining.

Q
Guest
Q
Vancouver homeowners with laneway homes who think their properties are worth more than $1 million are burning themselves on HST/GST rebates. From the Vancouver Sun: Mark (Skip) Taylor tells me he was aware, through his builder, of dozens of homeowners who successfully applied for HST rebates and none who failed to be approved. So he applied to get some money back on the laneway home he and his wife, Paula Blanchet, built two years ago. Yet, instead of a CRA cheque in the mail, they got a bill for $26,000… “The GST/HST new residential rental property rebate is limited to rental units that are less than $450,000 at the time of substantial completion of construction,” CRA said. Determining the structure’s value is easy — just add up the construction costs. But guesstimating the value of the land it sits on… Read more »
An Observer
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I’m tracking million dollar detached sales in Burnaby, Coquitlam, North Vancouver, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Vancouver East, Vancouver West and West Vancouver. As of the end of April here are the aggregate results:

Jan to Apr 2011: 2378 sales
Jan to Apr 2012: 1538 sales
Jan to Apr 2013: 1205 sales down 49% from 2011

West Vancouver, Richmond and South Delta lead the way down 65% in sales and have much higher inventory. Will be posting a full breakdown on the site this week

Aggregator
Guest
Aggregator

@An Observer

Just curious. Would you have any estimation of how many of those MLS resales are actually presales on non-exisiting units? Would be interesting to see.

Q
Guest
Q
China’s economy is in trouble. Bearish for Vancouver real estate? From The Telegraph “The world’s tallest tower should have been built by now. Officials said last year that the great edifice with 220 floors would be erected in three months flat in China’s inland city of Changsha by March, snatching the crown from Dubai’s Burj Khalifa. The deadline has come and gone, yet the wasteland sits untouched. It now looks as if the fin d’époque project – using prefab blocs – may never be approved. Even China knows its limits. … China’s Development Research Council (DRC) expects growth to drop to 6pc by 2020. It could be much lower. The US Conference Board says it will average 3.7pc from 2019-2025 as the ageing crisis hits. Michael Pettis from Beijing University thinks it is likely to slow to 3pc to 4pc… Read more »
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

China’s CCTV on Canada’s Housing Bubble. Not sure how recent this clip is;

Concerns over potential bubble in Canada’s housing market.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDRAWgDTiWA

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Prices down = Sales up.

No?

Q
Guest
Q

Just following up on The Telegraph article I linked to earlier… I think the most interesting part of that article is that the IMF is saying that by 2030 China will have a labour shortage of about 140 million workers. That is a stunning prediction. It’s hard to imagine the most populous country on Earth with a labour shortage! (Although by 2030, India may be the most populous country on Earth. Could a labour shortage in China put some upward pressure on wages in China, and by extension, the rest of the world? Maybe not. The multinational corporations may just find a new source of cheap labour in other countries.

Yellow Helicopter
Guest
Yellow Helicopter

Thanks Observer. In the areas I’m tracking, the houses listed around $700-900k have been selling in a few days, a couple in bidding wars – so the work that you do gives me a lot of hope for the future… Think the trickle down affect, price-wise, will start from June / July…

Yellow Helicopter
Guest
Yellow Helicopter

(I should add that most of these houses that I’m watching are listed and selling for below assessed.) Still think they need to come down much further though. My spouse and I earn $175k combined and we can’t afford a SFH… crazy.

Skook
Member
Skook
I sometimes think that with the daily sales figures, it comes down an issue of “not seeing the forest for the trees.” In other words, it is the overall picture that is most important and what is happening on the periphery may give the best indication of what awaits the lower mainland. I have just updated my SC April sales figures with the REBGV April Sales and Listing Data and not only were April sales half of those in April, 2012 but nothing sold in April beyond the $800,000-$899,000 price point. http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-SC-Listings-Sales-2011-2013?pid=929&mode=threaded#pid929 ********** Last night, there was a comment on Whispers’ site from the island and Anonymous had this to say: Comox Valley: VIREB summary: Building Lots: 4 sold; price this year $130k, price last year $249k. VIREB reports 113 active listings for building lots but I know from searching… Read more »
Many Franks
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Many Franks

The Economist on Stephen Poloz and Canada’s near future:

At the same time Canada still has a dangerous level of household debt and a housing bubble (although the property market has shown signs of softness recently). The Bank of Canada’s low interest rates have aggravated the problem, creating a bit of a dilemma: the bank needs low rates to get growth and inflation back up, but those low rates are feeding the excesses it worries most about.

If “recent softness” (read: continued poor market performance) is the silver lining on a housing bubble turd — I believe that’s what Troll is also arguing — then consider me a happy renter in the meantime.

I hate the NDP & their taxes!
Guest
I hate the NDP & their taxes!

There is no doubt that relentless lower interest rates are driving afforabililty and likely sales. You can’t blame people for thinking they are getting money for free becuase they are. Buying a house with 2.65% money is almost like a lease.

I think until rates start to move higher which could be still a couple of years we will see a slow melt.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Everytime I see an article in the MSM on housing nowadays that seems to not take an impartial view, I have to search the author to see if they have any hidden agenda (thanks Whispers, you’ve made me into a tin-foil hat wearer). So, what is the deal with Ross Andrews at the Financial Post who penned this gem:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/09/canada-housing-correction/

I search for Ross Andrews online and get…nothing! Is this a real name or a pen name???

Anonymous1
Guest
Anonymous1

Some news for the delusional Bears:

The following is prices (what counts) ,not sales:

Phoenix up 23% in 1 year

Even Seattle is up over 9%!!!

Now tell me how are renters winning out there??

You may not want to hear this but I think the next thing to go up in Metro Vancouver will be rents. Especially the valley!

Anonymous1
Guest
Anonymous1

I hate the NDP & their taxes! :

Rates can’t go up! Why?

1) Bond holders (“The Very Rich”) won’t allow it. Note the yields for the past 30 years.

2) It would Obliterate stocks.

3) It will stall US housing and piss off the majority of voters.

In Canada, they will follow the USA. Our currency will drop to 80 cents.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks

@YLTNboomerang: Hard to say with such a common name, but there is a numbered company owned by a Ross Andrews in Ontario:

121757 Ontario Limited is a private company categorized under Real Estate Management and located in Dundas, ON, Canada.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks

Many Franks: Scratch that. A common name and a passing interest in Real Estate is hardly enough to go on. Regardless, that article is the most innumerate string of gibberish I’ve seen in a while… and even so, he barely manages to make an argument.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
Another fund manager taking a short view of Canadian RE: http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/05/steve-eismans-sohn-conference.html Quote Short Plays on Canadian Housing He says that if a housing slowdown comes in Canada, the Canadian banks will really get hit. “Misaligned incentives and poorly understood housing finance market.” Canada has their own Fannie Mae- called CHMC, which stepped in during 2008-2010 to do almost ALL the loans. Now CHMC is not doing loans, so banks must do it. Says these banks are all over-priced and “over-earning” because the boom from issuing insured loans is over. Canadian banks: Bank of Montreal (BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto Dominion Bank (TD). Short Idea: Home Capital Group (HCG.CA). Listed only in Canada. Largest non-prime mortgage originator in Canada. Carries $8.8B on their balance sheet. Has less than… Read more »
Bull! Bull! Bull! @ YLTNboomerang
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull! @ YLTNboomerang

“I search for Ross Andrews online and get…nothing! Is this a real name or a pen name???”

what do you find objectionable in that article???

s1
Guest
s1

@Anonymous1

The difference if you haven’t noticed is the US housing prices dropped significantly and are now worth buying based on economic fundamentals, while Van RE is still way out of whack.

Van real estate will fall, I have no doubt.

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