Guess the market trend

Is the market picking up after last years slide?

Troll shared these numbers in the previous thread:

Here’s some facts for the navel gazers to vote down:

Apr 1-15: 115 sales/day
Apr 16-30: 127 sales/day
May 1-8: 137 sales/day

Sales are strengthening during a time that they usually begin to fall off. MOI is also falling. Like it or not bears, this market is beginning to show some signs of strength. Not so simple to just dismiss as a bull trap.

Then frank pointed out we’re still pretty high on the inventory front:

Here’s VMD‘s interpretation of the trend:

Been on vacay in remote areas without internet..
to further Troll #103′s stats:

So far in May: 137/d vs 133 (2012) vs 160 (2011)
Apr 16-30: 127 (2013) vs 140 (2012) vs 159 (2011)
Apr 01-15: 115 (2013) vs 154 (2012) vs 147 (2011)

Look at May vs Apr sales in last few years:
2012: 2853 2011: 3377 2010: 3156 2009: 3524

The statement that “Sales are strengthening during a time that they usually begin to fall off” is incorrect. Sales almost always fall off in June (except 2009), not May.

and here’s Trolls response to that:

I don’t like using monthly numbers because they are skewed by the number of business days, one or two extra days can skew the numbers. I think a better measure is sales/day. For example you show increasing sales for 2012 from April to May, but if you break it down by sales per day, you get the following:

Apr. 1-15: 154 sales/day
Apr. 16-30: 144 sales/day
May 1-8: 133 sales/day

Falling just as I said.

So what do you think? Are we seeing enough of a trend reversal yet to say the market is strengthening or is it a normal spring bump on a long hill down?

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Stephaine
7 years ago

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asiaman
asiaman
7 years ago

like it or not in the two step crash, the first step will be interest rates, until then, there will be greater fools, i dont expect anything dramatic before then, but then again this ting is so screwed, it might just explode before then. just talking to people around me 90% still dont have a clue whats around the corner. they dont want to know and the ones that do are not that vocal, im not; when i hear some poor sap just bought a house I dont say anything, hes already signed his/her death warrant. why be the one to mention it and set the anxiety going let him wonder around in foolish bliss as long as possible….

good-format
good-format
7 years ago

Average daily inventory increase this week is 87, if the same trend continues, the inventory at the end of the month is 19,265

taylor192
7 years ago

I’m disappointed with Kenney reopening family reunification. I am curious how they will impose the costs on the families, and ensure the families don’t claim some sort of hardship to get out of paying.

Aninymous1
Aninymous1
7 years ago

Breaking news:

Kenney will reopen the floodgates Jan 1st with the new Parents/Grandparents immigration stream. This is in addition to the recently introduced Supervisa ( which is like a temp program ).

What this means is longer wait times at hospitals (they ain’t building more) and more pressure on detached housing.

Enjoy.

Very Little Gravitas Indeed
Very Little Gravitas Indeed
7 years ago

These new link-in-name spammers are starting to get worse. It might be time to either hide the website link if a comment is voted under, or just disable the Website field in the comment submission form.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

Troll has access to the daily numbers hahaha whudasurprise.

It should not be much of a surprise that sales are picking up a bit. There have been comments before that 2013 will be somewhere between 2009 and 2012. Maybejustmaybe that’s coming to fruition…

Mr Qwality
Mr Qwality
7 years ago

“people who bought 10 years ago are sitting pretty and don’t have to worry about a ‘crash’.”

yes they do. Because the Vast Majority of those people who captured Real Estate gains the last few years Also took out a HELOC, and spent the money frivolously. Huge swaths financed their travel this way. (apologize for generalizing, would like to know the stats on this).

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s1
s1
7 years ago

@anonymous1

If you take a look at PaulB’s number with the released numbers by REBGV at the end of the month they’re pretty identical and PaulB’s numbers are usually slightly a bit more.

good-format
good-format
7 years ago

Last week the CEOs of the monster banks were given a clear message that 30-year mortgages need to be wiped away. Completely. In fact, they’ll be banned.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/

Anonymous1
Anonymous1
7 years ago

Why the huge difference in reported sales numbers.

Are Paul B’s numbers credible or are we being mislead??

Anonymous1
Anonymous1
7 years ago

Not much of a name..said regarding:

–>I would blame the government because they have purposely created these imbalances. They alone should be held accountable.

“What about personal accountability? The government hasn’t forced anyone to buy RE.”

So why are you so worried and care about high house prices????

YLtn
YLtn
7 years ago

@troll, PaulB grabs the numbers at the same time everyday, if you grabbed later, wouldn’t that be taking from activity that he would normally pick up tomorrow? Or maybe I just have no clue how MLS works because the cartel guards the data so fiercely.

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barb rennie
barb rennie
7 years ago

Inventory of 17,911!!! Will it be an 18,000 party tomorrow?

Troll
Troll
7 years ago

I think Paul pulled the numbers too early today, the sales numbers are too low. Here’s the actuals from today:

New Listings: 269
Price Changes: 113
Sold Listings: 144

Inventory: 17911

Dead Give Away is best song of 2013
Dead Give Away is best song of 2013
7 years ago

On a long enough time line the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. In the mean time, lets lighten the mood a bit. All this real estate talk gets me down. This video made my day. It’s an auto tune remix of the interview with Charles Ramsey, the guy who rescued the three girls trapped in the house in Cleveland.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nZcRU0Op5P4

BWilson
BWilson
7 years ago

I thought Troll’s comment yesterday was a little misleading – picking May 1 through 8 (a full week + another wednesday) and comparing it to larger time periods on a sales/day basis isn’t really fair because Tuesday and Wednesday typically generate more sales than the other days of the week. Also, it should be noted last week was a very strong week for sales, but now it’s looking like a one off. Not sure about this but that might have been the only week all year where there were more sales than the equivalent week in 2012. So far this week (May 6-9) there have been 499 sales. The equivalent last year was May 7-10 2012 (Mon-Thurs) there was 571 sales, so we’re down about 12.6% year over year which is more or less consistent with the average in March… Read more »

Not much of a name...
Not much of a name...
7 years ago

@Anonymous1 #43

If someone were to put $300,000 down on a $600,000 house and that house were to go down in value to $400,000. Then what?

The purchasers have now lost 67% of their dp. Smart move.

I would blame the government because they have purposely created these imbalances. They alone should be held accountable

What about personal accountability? The government hasn’t forced anyone to buy RE.

Not much of a name...
Not much of a name...
7 years ago

So with today’s sales of 80, my rough back of the napkin math now shows that the average sales per day is about 128. So, that is pretty close to the same as the last half of April. What does this mean for the market trend?

dyugle
dyugle
7 years ago

It’s very interesting to see the sales bounce around but simply put the sales need to double in a hurry to bail out the builders. These guys were very quick to stop during the great financial crisis. Only the ones who kept building were rewarded with larger market share and a pick of the trades as they kept people employed and didn’t burn any bridges. Since the market came back they are heroes and feel that they can do no wrong. Others wish they had kept building. Thus, they all have kept building during this slump in sales but this must be eating up their cash reserves. My estimate is that they can keep it up for about 1-year before they will start to be cut off one by one. This cutting off process should start this year and carry… Read more »