Is the Vancouver market falling apart or taking a breather?

There’s an article over at CNBC talking about the National real estate market, it’s warning signs and various slumps.

They revisit Vancouver Real Estate agent Keith Roy’s very public decision to sell his house last year and say prices have dropped 3.9% in Vancouver, 5.6% in West Van.

They also talk about lending practices in Canada and recent efforts to return CMHC amortization terms to their historical norm.

Some of the loopholes people use to avoid the mortgage restrictions are quite extraordinary. For example, although the government requires buyers to purchase private mortgage insurance on mortgages with 100 percent loan-to-value ratios, eHow says this can be avoided just by getting two mortgages, each for 50 percent of the home value.

Canadians are also allowed to borrow against pensions and life insurance policies to fund their down payments. Even credit cards can be used to fund down payments. So it’s very possible that the total housing debt is actually much higher than the official mortgage debt numbers.

If this sort of thing is being openly discussed even after the government has launched its efforts to curb lending excess, just imagine what kind of shenanigans were going on before the crackdown. The quality of the mortgages made in 2011 and 2012 may turn out to be much worse than is commonly suspected.

Read the full article here.

So is the Canadian market falling apart at this point?  Vancouver has certainly fallen over the last year and this is starting to have an effect on developers as well – the Alba has been put on hold due to a ‘challenging real estate market‘.

 

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JD
JD
7 years ago

Pope:really liking the mobile site on android. Thanks,
I can read the hidden comments now, and vote. Need to deal with the seo posts somehow.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

The Liberals split the Green party vote. 🙂

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Franco
Franco
7 years ago

Not sure why the opinion polls were so wrong, but here’s a possible reason from an old fart. While watching a few newscasts throughout the day of traffic at neighbouring polling stations, couldn’t help noticing a lot of elderly voters, and wondering if they were included in those opinion polls that I assume are conducted via the latest online gizmos or confined to starbucks oulets in trendy locations. I’m sure the NDP has evolved into a more responsible party and may have changed for the better, but stubborn old voters who remember the tenacious labour policies of Dave Barret and Glen Clark may not be so ready to forget and forgive, however irrelevant such policies may be today. In any event, the oldies were obviously not swayed by those polls, nor are they likely to “thumb” their way (up or… Read more »

Loud Howard
Loud Howard
7 years ago

@#97 Says “…he searches for sales posted today only, not sales posted from 5pm yesterday.”

That sucks. What’s the point if sales aren’t since last sample? If is doing what you say, his numbers are not accurate to begin with.

If would tell us what he does, it would clear this up.

Very Little Gravitas Indeed
Very Little Gravitas Indeed
7 years ago

Rob Chipman’s numbers corroborate Troll’s:

2013-05-14 207 $824,034 $786,504 $37,529 4.55 57

http://www.robchipman.net/

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Best place on meth
7 years ago

@Loud Howard

It’s my understanding that when Paul posts the daily sales he searches for sales posted today only, not sales posted from 5pm yesterday.

If that’s the case it’s most likely those extra sales posted after 5 yesterday will be lost from the monthly total.

Days like this are rare, usually Pauls numbers are accurate but this time they came out early and missed a lot.

If you’re keeping a personal set up numbers on file then feel free to ignore those extra sales, it doesn’t matter to me or anyone else one bit.

Loud Howard
Loud Howard
7 years ago

If @troll had a genuine interest in accuracy he/she would post a full set of alternate numbers every day. As it stands, using @troll’s occasional number in a series of mostly numbers only inflates the sales count. ’s next day number obviously includes the “missing” sales which means the composite series will be double counting sales.

Sky Pilot
Sky Pilot
7 years ago

But, it’s overcast and the ceiling has dropped a few thousand feet. Better come in for a landing while you still can Anonymous # 94

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

the sky is still above us, silly bears. it’s not falling!

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Best place on meth
7 years ago

@Troll

“Funny you should mention, we hit 200 today.”

Thanks for the heads up, today I’ll use your numbers for my records in the interest of accuracy.

Please let us know if you see any more huge disparities in the daily numbers.

space889
space889
7 years ago

Looks like Garth or at least his assistant does read this site as today’s post is about the special mortgage program banks have available for new immigrants that I posted 2 days ago.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

“Without proportional representation we will continue to have extremely skewed election results.”

With proportional government you end up with Italy. I’ll risk leaving things just the way they are thank you very much, even if I don’t like the results for years at a time.

southseacompany
southseacompany
7 years ago

Another interesting article from CNBC:

“Full Recourse Loans Won’t Save Canada’s Housing Market” Tuesday, 14 May 2013
By: John Carney, Senior Editor, CNBC.com

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100736121

“Full recourse loans may also exacerbate the economic downturn that accompanies a slump in housing prices. Rational borrowers will reduce consumption to save when falling housing prices put them at risk of deficiency judgments. As consumption spending falls, the economy contracts—which puts more homeowners at risk of default. This can prompt a recessionary downward spiral.

So even though Canadian mortgages are different than many here, that difference may not prevent a housing bust, a wave of defaults or a consequent recession. It’s possible the recourse laws could make a recession even worse.”

Democrass
Democrass
7 years ago

From the Financial Post:

One major factor behind Canadian banks being the envy of the financial world is that they get so much help from the federal government.

But there may be strings attached to that security — one analyst is predicting that the big banks could actually get hit with the bill in the unlikely event that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., which insures about $560-billion worth of the country’s mortgages, ever needs to be bailed out.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/13/the-price-of-taxpayer-support-for-canadian-banks/

Democrass
Democrass
7 years ago

I’m glad that the Liberals rather than the NDP will be blamed for the Real Estate bust and the resulting poor economy. If the NDP had won this election, they would never win another in this province.

Ford Prefect
Ford Prefect
7 years ago

First past the post only works with a two party system. We have a clearly established 3 party system in BC and a 4 party system in Canada. Without proportional representation we will continue to have extremely skewed election results.

Joe Mainlander
Joe Mainlander
7 years ago

@ #77

If a house has three suites in it, then it has three households Two would be households in rental units, one would be a household in an owner occupied unit. 65% of households in Metro Van are owner households according to Metro Van stats.

http://www.metrovancouver.org/planning/development/housingdiversity/HousingDataBookDocuments/MV_Housing_Data_Book.pdf

patriotz
7 years ago

“The Green party is essentially a fiscally conservative party who supports the environment” The GP and its supporters claim it is fiscally conservative, but I don’t see much in its actual positions to support this view. For example, the GP did not take a position on the HST referendum. Fiscal conservatism means being willing to take unpopular stands. Jane Sterk said she would personally vote “no” (i.e. pro-HST) after much dithering, but how a party leader can take a stand when the party itself doesn’t is a bit of a mystery to me. Here’s a real clanger from Sterk: Under HST, new homes costing over $400,000 will pay an additional seven percent on the amount over $400,000. Greens are concerned about adding new costs to housing. Which of course shows a total misunderstanding of what determines housing prices. http://www.straight.com/news/jane-sterk-hst-wont-help-bc-adapt-climate-change The… Read more »

patriotz
7 years ago

“Polling companies/media are big businesses. They are behind the Liberals. They purposely released polls with the NDP in the lead.”

You hear this a lot and it’s wrong.

Polling companies do not make money on election polls. So why do they do them? It’s because election polls are the only polls which have a guaranteed check on them – that is, the actual election. They do the polls because it’s an opportunity to demonstrate to their commercial customers – who pay for their bread and butter work – that their methodology is accurate. I heard Angus Reid himself describe this.

I’m as surprised as anyone else by the results – I thought it would be 45/40 the other way. Well, I hope the RE bust looks good on you, Christy.

Anonymous1
Anonymous1
7 years ago

To all the people voting down my posts: You were probably stunned by election results! Yes? Thought so… Let me explain what happened or you can stay bewildered about what happened (just like RE). Polling companies/media are big businesses. They are behind the Liberals. They purposely released polls with the NDP in the lead. NDP voters got complacent thinking the NDP are going to win so they never went out and voted. Hahaha. N: post 70 –> It’s the newcomers who will occupy and raise rents. The 30% native population will have to do with less while still paying more for a roof over their heads. Think! Anonymous Post 78 –> For the last time Quit mentioning and comparing canada with japan!! they have had a declining population for 20 years. What’s your real agenda? Oh, the polls done were… Read more »

Peter
Peter
7 years ago

I voted for Dix but did not trust him one bit. Why? I am sick and tired of all the corruption by the Liberals, and I think the province deserves a change. Oh well, I hope this is a good time to dump Dix and Sihota, which will give the NDP a chance to get elected.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

“Seems the board is working late these days, when PaulB. pulls the data at 5 or earlier he is missing a number of entries.”

Hah! So much for PaulB’s superior work ethic!