Slumping into the Future

The economist Dave Madani is at it again.

He’s got nothing good to say about the Canadian real estate market.

According to Dave it’s a bit early to claim there will be a ‘soft landing‘.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has acted four times in the past five years to make mortgage-lending rules more restrictive amid concern that the Vancouver and Toronto markets were overheating. Flaherty has said he welcomes a slowdown of condominium construction in the two cities and has warned consumers, who have a record debt-to-disposable-income ratio of 165 percent, not to become overextended.

Madani, a former senior economist at the Bank of Canada, was the only person surveyed by Bloomberg News during the past two years who consistently predicted the central bank wouldn’t raise borrowing costs. Madani previously forecast home prices in the country would fall by 25 percent in the next few years.

Read the full article over at Bloomberg.

85 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
patriotz
7 years ago

“As for babies dying in the US, their infant morality rate is high because they classify many preemies as alive before they die whereas most other countries state they were born dead.”

Can’t speak for the whole world, but Canada certainly doesn’t.

The US has high infant mortality by developed country standards because many uninsured mothers do not receive adequate prenatal care.

Devore
Devore
7 years ago

Poor Troll, still getting excited over daily stats?

Chip
Chip
7 years ago

NICU beds have had shortages for years. I remember when there were no spaces in all if western Canada and they were being sent south.

It’s simply bad management, which is inevitable when you try to centralize such a complex industry.

As for babies dying in the US, their infant morality rate is high because they classify many preemies as alive before they die whereas most other countries state they were born dead.

Real Estate Pimp
Real Estate Pimp
7 years ago

Anon,
Sounds like you are an Immigration Lawyer.

Many Franks
7 years ago

More from Reuters:

Flaherty said Canada would have had a housing bubble had he not intervened and he welcomed signs of softening in the worrisome condominium market, where too many units had been built and prices had soared.

Really, Puffy Jim? Yeesh. Usually I’ll cut the guy some slack but here the arsonist firefighter is singing his own praises a little too loudly.

Real Estate Pimp
Real Estate Pimp
7 years ago

Chinese manufacturing is in a slump.
Does not bode well for BC commodities exports and Vancouver Real Estate.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-manufacturing-swings-to-contraction-hsbc-2013-05-22?siteid=yhoof2

BWilson
BWilson
7 years ago

We may be up ~77 sales vs. last May but the month isn’t over yet and we’re still down over 1000 year to date vs. 2012 and how did 2012 work out?

rp1
rp1
7 years ago

#42 JR – that hit home. Did it end up ok?

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

REP: ‘Most of them live in countries with limited or no health and pension programs (yes this includes the USA). Tney will be back once they need expensive medical treatment or pension benefits.”

Do some research before commenting. You have to live in Canada 6 months per year to qualify for medical. If you have a pension you get it regardless of where you live. No need to come back to collect it.

Real Estate Pimp
Real Estate Pimp
7 years ago

My focus is on the number of expired and cancelled listings.
They are about 80 each day.
Most of them represent unrealistic sellers, who can’t adjust to the reality of declining sales and prices.
They will spent a few months in purgatory, then come back humbled and willing to accept lower prices.

Real Estate Pimp
Real Estate Pimp
7 years ago

Offshore or abroad!,
What’s the diff.
The point is that there are 2.4 million people with a Canadian passport and dual citizenship living
outside of Canada.
Most of them live in countries with limited or no health and pension programs (yes this includes the USA).
Tney will be back once they need expensive medical treatment or pension benefits.

minotaur3
minotaur3
7 years ago

My guess is that there weren’t really 82 sales yesterday or 222 today. Instead, the guy who enters sales into the database went home early yesterday and entered the rest of the sales this morning.

JR
JR
7 years ago

Let’s see. That’s 88+222 = 310/2 = 155 sales per day during the hottest selling time of the year. This is somehow a bull case?

emmi
emmi
7 years ago

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States
920,000 canadians in the u.s. Most likely few are helicopter children. Or if they are, that would be pretty funny.
44k in Australia.

real_professional
7 years ago

@ Bull! Bull! Bull!

Hey you surrey punjab developer – buy any lots yet? Remember buy everything that you see, use a lot of leverage… everything goes up.

Trust me, I heard it on Red FM.

real_professional
7 years ago

@CullBull

Don’t confuse luck with strategy. Likewise, don’t confuse your bravado for intelligence.

VMD
7 years ago

not unexpected post-long-weekend sales-entry back-log.
perhaps the REBGV staffs took it easy yesterday (88 “sales”).

Averaging 155 sales/d for the first 2 days after this long weekend.

While last Monday + Tuesday: Averaging 177 sales/d.

Granted this week’s sales so far is better than last year’s (Avg 128/d). We’ll see how the rest of the week turns out.

More interested in the end-of-month HPI numbers and the sales distribution of SFH/Condos.

George Soros
George Soros
7 years ago

“Each is facing one count of mischief over $5,000. If found guilty, they face a maximum of six months jail time and $5,000 in fines.”

I am sure the view improvement is worth 20 x’s the fine. They should do an assessment of the improved value and charge 2 x’s the amount in fines.

frank
frank
7 years ago

Very bad boys. Lets hope they get the 6 months in the slammer if they are guilty.

The ‘arborist’ should be put in the longest

Charged are homeowners Hooman Bozorgnia, 41, and Roger Mulloy, 54, as well arborist Jeff Hoff, 33, owner of Hoff Tree Services.

Each is facing one count of mischief over $5,000. If found guilty, they face a maximum of six months jail time and $5,000 in fines.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

(222+82)/2=152. Market rebound! Buy now or be vci dweller forever !!!!!

Many Franks
7 years ago

@Reality Check: Yup, it’s fear-mongering. It started the moment Garth broke wind — uh, broke the news — that the Fed was considering intervening in the uninsured market (as reported in CMT). My comment there:

I expect the housing industry to cry about the injustice done to the first-time buyer like they’ve done for the last mortgage changes, when frankly the first-time buyer needs what the Fed is trying to arrange: lower prices.

…which is exactly what happened.

paulb
7 years ago

New Listings 293
Price Changes 158
Sold Listings 222

TI:18315

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Troll
Troll
7 years ago

@mosesupposes

Go back to your cave and leaving the trolling to the Troll.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

Makes up for the 82 yesterday. Good thing Paul ain’t reporting the FV numbers

mosesupposes
mosesupposes
7 years ago

“Hey bears, get ready for the biggest sales day of the year today.”

Simple Bulls – when sales are slow they yell it doesn’t mean its a weak market – only prices matter!

But when sales are good (even for a day) suddenly its a strong market – price, what prices?