BC Mortgage Applications falling off a cliff

Wow.

Dyugle pointed out this graph on historical mortgage application volume at canequity.

There are some great stats at that site, but the historical chart is remarkable.

It goes back to 2003 and so far 2013 is scrapping along historical lows for that full time period.

I guess homebuyers these days are just using suitcases of cash?

I don’t know how else you would explain this big shift in mortgage applications unless the data is still being updated.

*Anon points out this is percentage of preapproval applications done online. So why are we seeing a smaller percentage of preapproval applied for online than we did for the last ten years? Any mortgage brokers care to comment?

Its even more remarkable when you look at this graph and notice how normally this would be the time of year with the highest volume of mortgage applications.

Check out the full site here for more interesting stats.

british-columbia-mortgage-history

 

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Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Nope. That is % of mortgage applications done online. I love you guys but come on.

Goldmember
Guest
Goldmember

If internet applications are dropping that fast, I bet the total apps are experiencing a worse % drop.

Maybe the Gold Bug graph can help with where house prices are headed?
http://i.imgur.com/1m9mqOO.png
That’s a Tight fit since 2005 ‘foretelling’ price moves 3 months ahead of time.

Barb Rennie
Guest
Barb Rennie

Paul B provides us with the total inventory stats daily. I wonder if he can get the sales stats that may explain the above mortgage application chart. It would make sense that the reduced online mortgage applications would indicate reduced overall sales. Unless the mortgage applications included renewals. Either way, such a drop in activity indicates that the RE market is in for a painful ride.

patriotz
Member

‘Many, many’ Canadian homes could become uninsurable

Of course, uninsurable also means unmortgageable.

George
Guest
George
Most Canadians would probably assume that when they buy flood insurance that includes insurance for “overland flooding”. What a joke our insurance industry is. The article says Canada is the only G8 country whose insurance companies do not include insurance for “overland flooding” of the type experienced in Calgary. Just another example of how Canadians are suckers and get hosed everytime we turn around. The article says that much of Canada’s housing market will become uninsurable if flooding increases due to climate change. I wonder what the implications are for the real estate market, especially in Calgary? From the Globe and Mail: ““In the absence of weather-hardening infrastructure, under the new extremes of climate change and extreme weather events, we are categorically heading towards an uninsurable housing market in Canada in many, many regions.” Feltmate’s project, jointly funded by the… Read more »
china crash is over
Guest
china crash is over

“The acute phase of China’s cash squeeze appears to have ended, with no major casualties to mention.”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e63888aa-de4f-11e2-9b47-00144feab7de.html#axzz2XKsOQHkK

Democrass
Guest
Democrass

“Nope. That is % of mortgage applications done online. I love you guys but come on.”

You miss the point. The graph correlates well with sales volume and price strength in the RE market. It is now back to the late 2012 level of applications, which was a very weak period for prices and sales.

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

There is no question whatsoever as to what this means.

It is the one Chart to rule them all.

NOBODY IS BORROWING MONEY FOR HOUSING ANYMORE because nobody is buying or even trying to buy this asset class. Full stop.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

An Observer
Guest

This graph is kind of meaningless, isn’t it? You could make an inverse graph showing % of mortgage applications that are not done over the internet and it would show that the % is rising.

If it graphed total # of applications then that would be different but in its current form it shows nothing.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

Not sure if I’m reading this graph right. This vertical axis is labelled “% of mortgage applications”. I read that as referring to the amount of online applications as a precent of total applications. Which would mean that fewer folks are applying on-line and doing it in person. It does not tell me the total amount of applications, on-line or otherwise. If, so yes, this only tells us the success of on-line mortgage services versus other methods, nothing else.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

# 6
” The acute phase of China’s cash squeeze appears to be over, with no major casualties being mentioned”
As usual, this being China, the truth is always the first casualty.
Can’t believe everthing you read.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Why would on-line applications as a % of total application be falling?
Given that more and more business Is done on-line, a drop in on-line application would mean an even larger drop in overall applications.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

Ponzi, the graph does not tell us that there has been a nominal drop in on-line applications, only that the percentage of on-line applications versus total applications is less. We have no idea, looking at this graph, what the total amount of applications is, on-line or otherwise. So, no way to infer, whatsoever, any drops, rises, or flatness in either.

crabman
Guest
crabman

Here are total outstanding mortgages in BC by year. The data goes back to 1990, and the past year has seen the smallest increase in that period. Stick a fork in it.

1990: 194,071
1991: 201,583
1992: 221,736
1993: 250,534
1994: 293,203
1995: 307,988
1996: 335,368
1997: 349,346
1998: 359,186
1999: 377,687
2000: 418,777
2001: 452,192
2002: 468,508
2003: 475,999
2004: 488,522
2005: 504,946
2006: 525,357
2007: 537,854
2008: 556,490
2009: 571,988
2010: 590,830
2011: 599,050
2012: 607,791
2013: 608,535

http://www.cba.ca/contents/files/statistics/stat_mortgage_db050_en.pdf

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

crabman, the link you provide is to a chart showing “Number of Residential Mortgages in Arrears”.

“In arrears” means behind in their payments. So this data only tells us how many are behind, not total.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

Sorry, I see the Total Mortgages columnn now. Thank you for the info.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Wow,
If Mainlander is right, then there are over 600,000 mortgages in BC which are behind with their payments.
Attach about 3 residents to each of those mortgages and you have about 1.8 million BC being affected.
That’s about 40% of the population of BC.
And it will only get worse, once rates are going up and these mortgages are coming up for renewal.

Laurey
Guest
Laurey

@Ponzi
Are you taking any heavy drugs? It is only 0.45% mortgages in Arrear for BC.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

No, the data that crabman linked to shows info for mortgages in arrears, but also shows total mortgages. crabman is listing total mortgages (608k). Number in arrears is only 2700.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Lauren # 18.
looks like you are smart and well informed.
Can you explain why on-line mortgage are on the decline?
Thank you.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Arrears = 3 or more months behind in their payments.
From my experience these ones a pretty much on their way to being foreclosed.
Would be interested to see how many are between 30 or 90 days.
Also, remember Banks are now granting “payment holidays” for up to 3 months.
Once you factor all this in, I’ll bet you delinquencies are much higher.

George
Guest
George

What a bizarre state American capitalism is in. Check out this headline on the Globe and Mail right now: “Wall Street rallies as data show US economy weaker than estimated”. The article explains that first quarter GDP grew by 1.8%, which is below the forecasted 2.4%. That means investors are doubtful that the Federal Reserve will pull back on quantitative easing. In other words, bad economic news translates into good news for Wall Street because it means more printing of money.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/us-first-quarter-growth-cut-to-18-per-cent/article12822046/

Manatee
Guest
Manatee

It looks like the original graph on this thread actually shows the Percentage of Mortgage Applications as a percent of the mortgage applications over the time period of the graph, not the percent of mortgage applications done online. It’s a confusing method, but the numbers work out. There are 126 columns, which means the average column should be 0.79% (126/100%) which appears close to the average value. It’s also the method that they used for the 3 graphs in their report where they supplied numbers. The percent values given for the first 3 tables all add up to 100%. This implies that either the monthly volume mortgage applications are decreasing, or CanEquity is rapidly losing market share.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

why is this crap on the first page of The Sun online? with 37 photos to boot!

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/affordability/Photos+Gated+estate+West+Vancouver/8582220/story.html

franco
Guest
franco
I’m surprised that all the alarm bells of higher interest rates that have spooked financial markets have so far been ignored by our housing market. I suspect that most prospective buyers are not that knowledgeable about economic trends and probably not old enough to recall how significant the impact of interest rates has been on the housing market in the past. Probably just as well…if everyone saw the light at once, the market would crash tomorrow. This is serious enough that several economists have recently expressed concern that the housing recovery in the US is already loosing steam and could be heading for round two of the bust. It has been said that the elusive Canadian crash that we’ve been warned about for almost 2 years now has lacked the knock-out punch of some significant event. Anyone who thinks higher… Read more »
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