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BC Mortgage Applications falling off a cliff

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148 Comments

Wow.

Dyugle pointed out this graph on historical mortgage application volume at canequity.

There are some great stats at that site, but the historical chart is remarkable.

It goes back to 2003 and so far 2013 is scrapping along historical lows for that full time period.

I guess homebuyers these days are just using suitcases of cash?

I don’t know how else you would explain this big shift in mortgage applications unless the data is still being updated.

*Anon points out this is percentage of preapproval applications done online. So why are we seeing a smaller percentage of preapproval applied for online than we did for the last ten years? Any mortgage brokers care to comment?

Its even more remarkable when you look at this graph and notice how normally this would be the time of year with the highest volume of mortgage applications.

Check out the full site here for more interesting stats.

british-columbia-mortgage-history

 

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Aggregator

“A number of international buyers put their investment property on the market once development is complete or near completion”

That’s pretty much what I said would be happening and why inventory is not as high. Quarterly completions for both Van and TO are below average while there’s a huge bottleneck of investors ready to flood MLS with units once developers complete units.

The market is very competitive: You now have developers competing with investors to front-run resale buyers with new units, while both are competing against resale sellers that are reducing price, and to make things worse, Van and TO’s total sales (new and resale) are still declining.

Van Sales http://i.cubeupload.com/QL5zsu.png
TO Sales http://i.cubeupload.com/fcx6Nx.png

All I see is major problems ahead.

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Anonymous

Gozilla

This is awesome. A staple for this blog from now on!

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Barb Rennie

Son of Ponzi Says:
June 27th, 2013 at 9:55 pm 144
My Chinese wife just read in a Chinese Newspaper that the Chinese Government will implement a 20% tax on Chinese Nationals who own Real Estate in Canada.

————————-

Please tell me where she read this? What is the publication? Can you provide link?

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Son of Ponzi

My Chinese wife just read in a Chinese Newspaper that the Chinese Government will implement a 20% tax on Chinese Nationals who own Real Estate in Canada.

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Anonymous

@s11, “Let’s be honest guys, I doubt an earthquake will happen anytime soon. They been talking about since I was elementary school, and it hasn’t happened yet.

I’m a housing bear, but this would be devastating for everyone living here. There would be deaths unquestionably, I don’t think this is something we should be hoping for”

1. That doesn’t demonstrate anything. It’s like saying the RE market won’t drop because it hasn’t in one individual’s conscious memory.
2. I haven’t read a single post where somebody seemed to be hoping for devastation.

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Anonymous

From last Fall, published in the Huffington Post, a
map showing Richmond suffering the fate of Atlantis, from an SFU Urban Studies student (not a PhD, possibly not a polymath, and not a self-described rennaissance man).

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Son of Ponzi

Einstein (a German) said:
God does not play dice with the Universe.
Had he lived in Vancouver, he would have exempt Vancouver’s RE market.

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Son of Ponzi

My point is that if the Tsunami would have come ashore about 300 km south about 5 million people would have perished.
Black Swan event.

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Anonymous

You are comparing Osaka’s 3 million to Tokyo’s 30 million?

Tokyo’s population (23 wards) itself is only around 9 million.

Tokyo metro area (Tokyo-Yokohama) is over 30 million. Osaka metro area (Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto) is 17 million.

Get you facts straight before you open your mouth.

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Son of Ponzi

People picture this.
Tokyo has over 30 million people.
Osaka has about 3 million.
I lived in Osaka for a while and at rush hour there are about 500,000 commuters taking the underground subway every morning and afternoon.
Assuming that Tokyo follows the commuter pattern of Osaka, you would have about 5 million commuters using the subway every morning and evening.
Now imagine what would have happened, if the EQ and the ensuing Tsunami would have hit Japan about 300 kms south and rolled over Tokyo.

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Anonymous

In an analyst’s words, “higher rates haven’t filtered down yet”

June is still pre-real-rate rise, and the dropping of commodities is going to hit Vancouver hard. Going forward there are additional headwinds. I’m downgrading my forecast for the rest of the year and I think this is the top for sales.

Preview:2014-2016, things are going to get “real”.

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Where ya gonna run to?

Will you guys piss off already with the fucking GRAPH!
We’re into serious stuff here with quakes, floods and Godzilla sightings.

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Manatee

@Troll #99 “A little more due diligence please.” I’ll try to explain this better. This isn’t the clearest of graphs and the legends can be misread. It’s clearer though if you go to the original site, and I would encourage you do so. http://www.canequity.com/stats/canadian-mortgages/british-columbia/index.phtm Which makes more sense? That on average, less than 1 % of mortgage pre-approvals are done online and that the integral of the applications is approximately 100, or that they are showing the percent of the total applications over the graph’s time period, which should add to 100%? In my opinion, it’s more likely that the each bar is the fraction of the total mortgage applications over the graph’s time period. They used this method on their other BC plots and it agrees with the plots of the other provinces. I assume they do this so… Read more »

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Thank God!

Thank god I rent! If I was a stupid owner I would be at risk for extremely unlikely events!

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VMD

Developers limit exposure to investor buyers 24 June 2013 “A number of developers are requesting higher down-payments from non-Canadian citizens in a bid to create occupied buildings and increase long-term property values, says one industry insider. International buyers – accounting for an estimated 40 per cent of sales in the GTA last year – are now facing down payments of between 25 and 35 per cent by a number of builders, compared to the average 20 per cent required, said Rokham Fard, founder of TheRedPin.com. He characterized the phenomenon as a trend starting late last summer as developers responded to demand by buyers for “neighbourhood-type buildings.” A number of international buyers put their investment property on the market once development is complete or near completion, with Fard suggesting many developers want a “balance of units” to ensure suites don’t remain… Read more »

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canadian

Interest rates will be set by the U.S ,not Canada,which means they’re going up.

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VMD

Fraser Valley June Stats:

18 OF 20 work days
Jun 2013: List:2340 Sales:1143 (-9.5%)
Jun 2012: List:2552 Sales:1263

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VMD@work

Thanks for the great analysis!
It’s worth noting that according to a RBC mortgage specialist (fwiw), people are increasingly looking at 5 year variable mortgages again, as 5 year variable rates are now lower than 5 year fixed.

If Canada’s economy continues to struggle, the prime rate may not go up any time soon. It’ll be worth watching how much banks are discounting the 5Y Variable rates (used to be up to P-0.9 a year or two ago; now it seems to be up to p-0.25)

If the bond yield continues to climb, then it’ll start to impact the 5-year posted fixed rates, which is the Qualifying Rate for both variable and fixed rate mortgages.

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paulb

New Listings 173
Price Changes 118
Sold Listings 139
TI:18469

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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Anonymous

, How much property are you trying to unload in Richmond? And just what is written in the geological record? Or are you merely posturing?

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Anonymous

Post #124

Or if Grouse Mountain turns out to be a super volcano! I see at least 7.3% price drop in the Lonsdale area. God help us all!

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s11

@122,

The US is recovering no doubt, there housing prices are going up and fed is stopping the QE.

Canada is a bigger basket case at the moment with too many consumers in debt, if you take a look at downtown robson it’s no where near as vibrant as it use to be. If you take a look at the best buys and future shops, they’re empty compared to before.

People are only buying necessities now, Superstores, Price Smarts, T&T markets are full of people buying necessities, but not much left for discretionary income, this will be disastrous for the economy, when resources get mis-allocated to one single sector housing, because of CHMC.

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Anonymous

Post #119,

What percent will houses fall if Godzilla only stays in the water but does not set foot on land? and if he does make landfall?

The market is toast if Mothra shows up! You Realturds are really gonna get it!!!

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s11

@121, no recovery the market is slowly decelerating from what I can tell. I have a few friends who are in the mortgage industry and they said it’s much slower compared to previous years.

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