FFFA! Speculations, Vacations, Credit and Collectables

Hey, you know what time it is?

It’s Free-for-all time!

This is when we do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

BOC says cooler market still at risk
BOE warns against rate increase risk
Developers limit exposure to investors
Do you vacation on credit?
Brokers see lost revenue
Many homes uninsurable?
BOC warns of mortgage securitization moves
Hong Kong developer shares tumble
Beanie Baby Values

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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I’m guessing #120 is a comment from whomever said sales are picking up on the coast in May.. In any case, don’t listen to their crab-spasm skook. They certainly aren’t speaking for me when they say nobody cares about the coast.

A BC environment with a calmer pace, llower cost of living and fewer people than Vancouver? Count me in! I’m just trying to figure out how to make a living in a less ‘location dependent’ way and then I plan on moving in that direction so I’m very interested in hearing about whats happening on the coast.

Keep letting us know what’s up and ignore the bitches please 😀


“Lets face it, if you had money, would you rather retire in Winterpeg or Des Moines or a more temporate city. So we will always be competing with their money too.”

Lets face it, if you were in a position to retire comfortably, with enough money to buy a skybox in Vancouver or Victoria with money left over, would you rather live close to your family and lifelong friends and connections, traveling the world at a whim, or a strange city where you don’t know anyone?

But we don’t have to wonder, because the statistics speak for themselves.


“Now, who was it in May that said sales were picking up on the coast, hmm?”

Pretty much no one here cares about “the coast” so please just tell us. You’re getting up-voted because you’re bearish, not because you’re popular.


The June sale stats for the Sunshine Coast are now up in the VanPeak forum.

June sales dropped 8.2% (-8.2%) from May and and are down 22.8% (-22.8%) compared to June, 2012. The year-to-date total for 2013 dropped 15.2% (-15.2%) compared to 2012. Now, who was it in May that said sales were picking up on the coast, hmm?


Happy Canada Day!


Has anyone with MLS access every counted how many presales are counted as resales in any given month?

There was a huge jump in average apartment prices http://i.cubeupload.com/eixJ8n.png but sales rose by 4% y/y while dollar volume is up by 17% y/y. This is a pretty big gap similar to Feb ’11 when average apartment prices also rose quickly and then declined back to trend. http://i.cubeupload.com/nUIf7K.png

Something is going on there.

Barb Rennie

I bet you will see the avalanche of “new” listings at a lower price, which will trickle in throughout July. This will begin the cycle of significant price drops. Anxious sellers want to be the first one to head out the door. Wait-n-see sellers won’t worry until late into 2013/ early 2014.

Barb Rennie

July 1st and active listings have dropped significantly due to expired, cancelled, terminated: 17654 active


Total Sold June 2013 – 2646*
Detached: 1106*
Attached: 472*
Apartment: 1068*

June 2012 – 2365*

*from Larry’s site


Faux Bulls:

Good you figured that out. Why would homeowners want to come to this blog unless they have something to sell?

The Bulls on this blog are renters as well..

Faux Bulls

Is there even one self identified bull on this board who owns? For sure they’re all transaction pumpers. Not a one has any skin in the game. They’ll tell others to buy for sure, but they rent. The only owers today have rocks in their head. Oops, did I type “owers”. I wrote owners and fingers gave “owers”. LOL!

Hey, “Bull” asshole pinheads. Do you really own, owe, etc or is it all about good business for your RE transaction profits?


Starbucks’ first store in mainland China closes due to high rent http://tinyurl.com/kfcurdr

Solution: lower rates, stimulate and build more.


“Off-shore buyers are two factors but so are the migration of aging boomers to retire in San Diego, San Francisco, Vancouver, Victoria etc. They price out locals.”

If you follow House Hunt Victoria you will know that the over-55 market (restricted) there is crashing big time. It’s far weaker than the market as a whole which is already the weakest in Canada.


I agree that the household survey is crap but population counts are based on the short form which is mandatory.

There are no objective measurements – CRA filings, MSP, school enrolments, telephones, hydro, auto registration, and yes rents – that contradict the official figures for population.


Just for the record regarding StatsCan net migrants data.

– From 1971/1972 to 1975/1976, estimates were based on Family Allowance data. From 1976/1977 to 2010/2011, estimates were based on Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) tax data. For 2011/2012, estimates were based on Child Tax Benefit data from CRA.

– The number of interprovincial migrants is final up to 2010/2011 and preliminary for 2011/2012.

Canada needs a proper census http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/editorials/canada-needs-a-proper-census-and-its-not-irresponsible-to-say-so/article12793625/

“Wayne Smith, the chief statistician of Canada, is going to have to do a lot better if he wants to convince the public that Statistics Canada’s new surveys are a suitable replacement for the mandatory long-form census that was cancelled in 2010.”

It’s all guessing and models from here on. I’d take those numbers with a grain of salt.


Why China loves to build copycat towns.

Hey maybe they could built a fake Vancouver – but I guess Vancouver itself has already beat them to it.


“You got it, pretty close numbers, true story, and the small town in BC is in the Kootenays/Boundary area.”

Ah yes, the region where “BC Bud” was supposed to keep prices in the stratosphere indefinitely.


“The stats are misleading. They don’t include PNP immigrant programs where someone first lands in Quebec, sign immigration papers, and are in Vancouver the next day”

These people would be included in the domestic migration statistics since on paper they are moving from one part of Canada to another.

And net domestic migration to BC is negative.

Joe Mainlander

2 # 104 True.

I think that the Census is pretty accurate in counting the number of residents in Greater Vancouver during the census year, since they actually come around to everyone’s home. I hardly think there are 100’s of thousands of illegals hiding in basements. You can see Vancouver’s growth rate quite clearly in between censuses, as per the link, and it has been lower the last 10 years than in previous decades. I hardly think anyone can make this up nor are these figures, in any substantial way, misleading.


“The numbers are misleading because StatsCan has no way of accurately tracking provincial inflows and outflows.”

The stuff people pull out of their arses to try to justify a bubble is amazing.