Risk Management Experience? The CMHC needs your help.

We’ve talked recently about the shift in management over at the CMHC.

Bloomberg has an article about the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation seeking a CEO with risk management experience.

Canada’s housing agency said it’s seeking a president and chief executive officer with risk management experience to oversee its C$563 billion ($544 billion) mortgage insurance portfolio.

The next CEO should have “knowledge of the financial management requirements, particularly risk management, of a large financial services organization,” Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. said today in an advertisement in the Globe and Mail newspaper.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said last month the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will continue to monitor CMHC “very closely,” because it must operate like the country’s largest lenders. The government-backed agency, which had C$563 billion of insurance in force at the end of March, covers most Canadian mortgages and helps commercial lenders securitize home loans.

Read the full article here.

Hat tip to VMD.

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Record low mortgage rates

” with a hint of record low mortgage rates thrown in ”

Those record low mort rates could soon be toast…according to stock markets the last few days. Haven’t heard that much rate fear from the financial media in years.
Will probably be a slow upward move to suck in a few more home buyers. Too bad, I’d rather see a big rate spike to squeeze some of those obnoxious bulls who are in debt up to their nuts.


Poor woman

This is what happens when RE becomes crazy in a city.


Lets hope they nail the bastard.


“Richmond & Van West bucked the trend to record sales gains”

I think this is more than “HAM”, there are “non-HAM” areas that are doing better (better, not necessarily great) as well (eg Main/Cambie).

Smells like relative valuation bias and some tangible discounts off peak sales prices, with a hint of record low mortgage rates thrown in.


‘Can you imagine something so ridiculous happening in real life??’

Remind anyone else of a 1929 jumper yelling it’s going to recover all while accelerating at 9.8 m/s^2?


Fraser Valley May Stats:
SFH Sales: -12.9% YoY
Condo Sales: -12.6% YoY
TH Sales: -13.9% YoY

Looks like tighter mortgage rules have the most impact on “non-HAM” areas, while Richmond & Van West bucked the trend to record sales gains (but they already had the most price drops ~8-9% YoY).

The “HAM areas” probably are more sensitive to Immigration rules (recent+future changes) and CRA anti-tax-evasion policies (fully effective 2015). I still feel May was a “Bull Trap” and Van West + Rmd will approach -10%+ YoY HPI price drops by year end. Time will tell…


Here’s a chart that matters http://i.cubeupload.com/RRSsTF.png

Hence the right chart showing a spread between Landcor and REBGV sales indicating that presales and whatever else is considered a residential sale has been on a continuous decline since 2006.

What’s that saying again? If you build it, they will come.

Wouldn't it be funny...

If someone made a website about how the housing market was going to crash and people came on that site, for 8 years, and talked about how the crash was just around the corner and it never happened?

For 8 long years?

Can you imagine something so ridiculous happening in real life??


” Cities that really want others to think their humble little burgs are really happening should say: they’re ‘Vancouver Class’”

Kind of like when ‘Whistler Style’ homes were all the rage everywhere (except in Whistler). ‘Whistler Style’ home – a home that’s overtaxed, unoccupied for 9 months of the year and occupied by drunken, stoned Aussie lifties for the other three months, all while the value is dropping like the Hindenburg on May 6th, 1937.


So many cities are now using the ‘World Class’ moniker to describe particular attributes or initiatives related to their cities. It’s only a matter of time before the expression gets a bit passe. Cities that really want others to think their humble little burgs are really happening should say: they’re ‘Vancouver Class’.

Canary in the RE mine

One month not a trend make!


Here is a quote from that article:

Home prices in Toronto, Canada’s most-populous city, rose 5.4% in May from a year ago, the biggest increase in five months, the Toronto Real Estate Board reported Wednesday.

5.4% YOY price increase is a hot market. I wonder if they will bring in another round of mortgage credit tightening. The measures so far have not cooled the market for SFH in Toronto. As this quote demonstrates, maybe F needs to do more:

The impact of Flaherty’s policy changes are beginning to fade, Toronto Real Estate Board President Ann Hannah said in Wednesday’s release.

“A growing number of households who put their decision to purchase on hold as a result of stricter lending guidelines are starting to become active again in the ownership market,” Hannah said.


Evidence mounts of a soft landing in Canada’s real estate market.
Is the media making too much out of typical spring real estate seasonality?



Guess Flaherty got a pre-print, and Kinsley isn’t able to fix it:

OECD reported in CBC Business news:
“Canadian homes among most overvalued in the world –
OECD report ranks Canadian real estate 3rd-most overvalued among developed countries

CBC story here.

Canary in the RE mine

To quote Winston Churchill:
We will beat them in POCO, We will beat them in Burnaby. We will beat them in Surrey.
And then we will fight them house to house in Vancouver and Richmond.

Best place on meth

The battle map is inspiring.

It looks like Europe in the spring of 1945.


May sales across the entire GV area are only slightly better than last year – and still very low compared to historical averages.

2007 – 1,805
2008 – 1,203
2009 – 1,402
2010 – 1,256
2011 – 1,570
2012 – 1,180
2013 – 1,212

2007 – 1,789
2008 – 1,244
2009 – 1,458
2010 – 1,354
2011 – 1,228
2012 – 1,156
2013 – 1,136

Year-to-date sales are about 14% lower than last year:
Jan through May 2012
SFH – 5,249
Condo – 5,214

Jan through May 2013
SFH – 4,455
Condo – 4,506

Many Franks

@Canary in the RE mine:If $33,840 gross rental income on an $1.7M investment is what the remorseless, steely soul of capitalism looks like, then go for it, Rockefeller!

Canary in the RE mine

Parts of Vancouver are becoming 3rd World country Shanty Towns.
I guess house is full of temporary foreign workers, which can be easily exploited.

Canary in the RE mine

Sales up in Vancouver West and Richmond.
Does this mean HAM is back?


May 2011-2013 Greater Vancouver SFH Stats by Region Richmond Sales: +26% vs 2012; -6% vs 2011 S/L Ratio: 42% vs 26% vs 39% (2011) HPI $ YoY : -8.0% (-9.1,-8.4,-9,-6.3,-6.5,-4.2,-4) (prev months’ YoY % change)    Vancouver West Sales: +53% vs 2012; -18% vs 2011 S/L Ratio: 58% vs 27% vs 67% (2011) HPI $ YoY: -8.0% (-8.5,-9.1,-9.2,-7.5,-5.5) Vancouver East Sales: +4.6% vs 2012; -25% vs 2011. S/L Ratio: 64% vs 45% vs 79% (2011) HPI $ YoY: -2.8% (-2.8,-2.6,-2.7,-0.5,+0.2) Burnaby Sales: -15% vs 2012; -48% vs 2011 S/L Ratio: 37% vs 37% vs 74% (2011) HPI $ YoY: -4% (-4.7,-4.9,-3.1,-2.3,+0.4) Coquitlam Sales: -12% vs 2012; -30% vs 2011) S/L Ratio: 51% vs 46% vs 70% (2011) HPI $ YoY: -1.8% (-0.4,+0.8,+1.4,+2.4,+2.9) North Van Sales: -3% vs 2012; -20% vs 2011 S/L Ratio: 56% vs 49% vs 74% (2011) HPI… Read more »


Many Franks that’s awesome.