What’s going on with inventory?

At the beginning of the month we saw a sharp drop in inventory, moving away from a near record high to a more moderate level for the season.

There are still a lot of properties for sale in Vancouver, but not the crazy highs we saw in the spring after the month end flush.

B5baxter has updated his inventory chart over at VancouverPeak.com and it looks like the last week has seen most of those properties come back on the market.

So we’re at a lower inventory level, but there is a sharp recent increase.

Any theories on what’s going on with listings?  Looks like there was a similar jump in July 2006:

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Joe
Joe
7 years ago

Maybe because interest rates are starting to creep up and sellers think that this will motivate wannabe buyers who have locked into pre approved mortgages.

bull! bull! bull!
bull! bull! bull!
7 years ago

TO VCI I HAD ALOT OF GOOD COMMENTS BUT ALSO ANNOYING COMMENTS BUT AN IP BAN GIVE ME A BREAK. HOW WOULD YOU LIKE THE REALESTATE CARTELS MESSING THIS SITE OR R U CHINA NO FREEDOM OF SPEECH. GARTH, WISPERER, PRICE DROP VANCOUVER(OBSERVER), VREAA, VMD AND FISH WOULD LET PEOPLE SPEAK FREE

patriotz
7 years ago

“No one here is debating that 2004-2008 were good times to buy”

I am. Maybe not 2004, but most people who bought from 2005 on are going to lose money. It isn’t possible for more than a few of them to sell high enough and soon enough to make up for the deficit on owning versus renting. And those who do sell are just passing the loss on to someone else.

That is, I think someone who has been renting since (say) 2005 will be able to buy at some point in the future and have spent less money in total (present value) than someone who bought in 2005.

patriotz
7 years ago

“While it’s true that Krugman’s Nobel was awarded for work having nothing to do with housing”

You might want to note that Einstein’s Nobel was awarded for work having nothing to do with the theory of relativity.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

space1999: With kids and you don’t want to move school zones, it’s even harder. Yeah, you can say just sign a multi-year lease! But seriously, how many landlord go for that? Not that many. Without it, you can potentially be forced to move across school zones or into sub-optimal alternative housing choices when the lease is up and you have to move. Say what you want about owning, as long as you pay all the cost, you get to stay where you are. Not so with renting….if the landlord don’t like you, he doesn’t have to renew the lease, or really jack up the rent. With owning, you at least can lock in mortgage rates for 5 or even 10 years now and banks can’t kick you out as long as you are paying the mortgage. You sound like your… Read more »

Mortgageslave
Mortgageslave
7 years ago

You’re clueless. 1%/month is crashing. heck .5%/month is crashing. This shit doesn’t happen overnight people. The psychology is changed, rates are going up, put a fork in it..

Receding Gains
Receding Gains
7 years ago

in post 14 nailed it: mortgage brokers are passing along the news that interest rates are heading up and this is dragging fence-sitting suckers to buy now.

I recall this from prior melt-downs – interest rate increases cause a small bump in activity before things drop off.

But the bull psychology of Vancouver is so ingrained that only one thing will change it: foreclosures. Lots and lots of sad stories about foreclosures. Until that happens there seems to be enough fools around to keep this market from collapsing.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Bull! Bull! Bull!
7 years ago

Me too! 😀

BULL! BULL! BULL! Says:
June 17th, 2013 at 8:46 pm 72
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

I THINK I RESPECT VMD THE MOST ON THIS BLOG

southseacompany
southseacompany
7 years ago

So, last week Global had this piece on” Vancouver to set construction record in 2013!”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wVjIv38mlE (Clip thanks to Greenhorn RET)

Today I read, “Vancouver’s falling housing starts drag on province. Starts have decelerated over the past six months and were below same-period levels from 2012” (Edmonton Journal.)

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/real-estate/Vancouver+falling+housing+starts+drag+province/8528579/story.html

So which is it, construction boom or falling starts? Somebody’s not truthing.

space889
space889
7 years ago

Let’s see: $6K+/month to own a SFH in a so-so part of Van, or $3K+/month to rent the same SFH, or $3K+/month to own a SFH in a better location in another big city, with better job opportunities too, I can see a lot people choosing option 3 rather than option 2 of staying in Van and renting. Also, renting a whole house for $3K in Van that isn’t a total tear down with no other tenants is not exactly easy. With kids and you don’t want to move school zones, it’s even harder. Yeah, you can say just sign a multi-year lease! But seriously, how many landlord go for that? Not that many. Without it, you can potentially be forced to move across school zones or into sub-optimal alternative housing choices when the lease is up and you have… Read more »

RE Canary
RE Canary
7 years ago

155 price reductions.
Getting dizzy but must go deeper still.

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

“my point is made”

You said 1-5 years. 2008 is 5 years ago. Your point is not made.
BTW they bought before the 2008 crash. If they bought in 2009 it would have been a better return.
I know it sucks but truth is most people are still in speculation mode and have gains on the table especially SFH. Condos I think are more grim but not carnage.

BULL! BULL! BULL!
BULL! BULL! BULL!
7 years ago

I THINK I RESPECT VMD THE MOST ON THIS BLOG

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Bull! Bull! Bull!
7 years ago

@Best place on meth

it’s hard to believe that some people are taken in by the impostor, but on the other hand, this board isn’t known for it’s rock solid analysis and reasoning abilities.

An Observer
7 years ago

There are definitely people who have made money buying in the last couple of years but they are the minority – if you include transactional fees, opportunity cost and inflation then it’s a very tiny list. Still, bears need to watch the rhetoric too!

George Soros
George Soros
7 years ago

“E van house bought $550k incl. transaction costs in 2008, sold this year $680k incl. transaction costs.”

My point is made:

We have to go back 5 years as an example of someone who made money.

No one here is debating that 2004-2008 were good times to buy were:

2009, 2010, 2011, 2012?

I repeat again, virtually no one who bought a SFH in the last 2-3 yrs has made any money. 5 yrs for the people who bought condo’s.

I don’t know why the Bulls are gloating.

SHOW ME THE MONEY!

pricedoutfornow
pricedoutfornow
7 years ago

@bonjovi I agree. Why buy when you can find a decent rental and nearly half the cost of what it would cost to own? Our family has just found a suitable rental for the 4 of us-finally after months of searching! We’ve found a whole well-maintained SFH to rent (no suites) in our neighbourhood in COV with landlords who have owned the property for decades (thus, don’t have a mortgage, and have no desire to sell, and the rent is not too bad either). I believe there are many landlords like this in Vancouver-we’ve run into a few in our search-people who bought houses as investments when prices were lower, and are now just choosing to hold onto the property for the rental income (lord knows why, but well, that’s their problem). We feel very fortunate, but we were very… Read more »

Nanon
Nanon
7 years ago

The single biggest trigger for me to leave Vancouver (soon!) will be the ever-increasing number of residents who choose not to speak english as their primary language and the detrimental effect that has on knowing your neighbours and feeling a sense of belonging to the community (and let’s not forget the bad service in stores/restaurants from difficulties crossing the language barrier).

Higher pay and cheaper housing are just a more politically correct bonus.

VMD
7 years ago

and the Chinese media just started reporting Krugman’s blog post

The article’s title is “Nobel Laureate: Canadian economy is extremely fragile. Housing bubble about to burst”

Not the best image of Canada to portray to the “HAMs”

bon jovi
bon jovi
7 years ago

what is the main trigger for people to move out of Vancouver? For me it was better paid job. I am puzzled when people say it is the price of housing. You can always rent cheaper.

paulb
7 years ago

New Listings 278
Price Changes 155
Sold Listings 131
TI:18412

http://www.paulboenisch.com

BULL! BULL! BULL!
BULL! BULL! BULL!
7 years ago

#58
AND YOUR BEGGING FOR A ASS WHOOP’N

remarkable co-relation
remarkable co-relation
7 years ago

“hole lotta political economy”

Fantastic work. Do you have evidence of the Influenza/1918-19 and stock market crash 1929? I’m aware of the China famine, but didn’t realize that there is an age when people invest the most (age 54).

Anonymous
Anonymous
7 years ago

Shriller:

As for the pecuniary, renting is exacting a psychological toll on some family members.

As a former owner I can tell you if are not happy renting you will not be happy owning. A house is just a house. The grass may seem greener but it isn’t. The ONLY reason to own in my opinion is because it is cheaper.

But it is not just housing prices/ownership that is making us move (which is what I was trying to say). Vancouver just doesn’t seem the best place for us to live right now.

But you said you were going to move back at some point. Are you expecting something to change?