BC Real Estate Market: is the worst behind us?

With the exception of SFH homes in Vancouver, recent years haven’t been kind to real estate investors in BC.

Vancouver condo prices have been pretty much flat for years with miserable cap rates. Victoria has been sinking, the interior is deep underwater since the market peak and Whistler condo HPI is down more than 40%.

But cheer up! At least one economist says the worst is behind us!

“For all the horror stories out there surrounding Canadian residential real estate, the sector is actually holding in very well,” chief economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates said today.

“Note that the worst in British Columbia may be behind us as starts there shot up to 31,000 units from 23,000 in May to stand at the best level in a year,” he added.

Sounds like another one for the bottom call thread!

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New Homes Vista Ca
New Homes Vista Ca
7 years ago

Wonderful !! your blog is very nice. You had provided so much of the information as per I wanted. It was so helpful

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
7 years ago

@pricedoutfornow

Doubtful that the loss of a few months of rent will hurt your landlord in a such a way that it will have a material impact on their lifestyle. More than anything, this is all a big inconvenience for them and they will likely treat you accordingly now that you are leaving. If he were genuinely in panic mode (ie. Defcon 5) don’t you think he would have put the place up for sale (or possibly rent out the t/h for 25% less than what you were just paying)

taylor192
7 years ago

@pricedoutfornow

If you leave a few items in the fridge, and some furniture you were going to throw out anyways, then you can technically keep the until the end of the month. If you leave it completely empty the landlord can take possession of it regardless if you’ve paid till the end of the month.

George
George
7 years ago

Compare Vancouver real estate with real estate owned by celebrities in the US.

In LA, $2.5 million buys you a celebrity home complete with pool, spa, fountains, rooftop patio, outdoor kitchen.

In Florida, $2.5 million bought John Travolta a mansion with its own landing strip for his private jet.

In Vancouver, $2.5 million buys you a tear-down bungalow that must be about half a century old.

http://thethirtiesgrind.com/2013/07/11/absurd-vancouver-property-july-11-2013/

pricedoutfornow
pricedoutfornow
7 years ago

We’re moving out of our old place at the end of the month. I can tell the landlord is getting desperate to rent our old place ASAP, given the number of ads he’s posting on craigslist. Funny how our place went from being a condo to suddenly being a townhouse! And still not too many tenants out looking-guess there’s just too much selection out there right now, for condos. He seems a bit panicky, even posting that our place will be available the day after our big move (not the end of the month) though I’ve never told him specifically we’ll be giving him the keys before the end of the month. And yet, when he comes to show the place, he drives up in a brand new BMW X5, the wife dressed in the latest high end fashions (I… Read more »

CanuckDownUnder
CanuckDownUnder
7 years ago

Update from Sydney where nominal prices are now at a new all-time high, recovering to be 2.1 per cent over the last peak according to RP Data. The unit we are renting would sell for a little more today than it did when it sold early 2011, $530K then about $550K today. In 27 months our rent has only gone from $465 to $475 per week so rents are definitely stagnant at best, any given Saturday we could go find a similar place in the area for no more than we pay now. Still waiting on the 10 per cent per annum rent increases as predicted… The march to ZIRP has definitely helped the market, the only people purchasing still are investors. The scary part is that the number of people investing through Superannuation is surging. This is the Australian… Read more »

Son of Ponzi
Son of Ponzi
7 years ago

Chip,
They may have comprehensive medical insurance, but they use up hospital resources if they need treatment.
Resources that are scarce, witness the long waiting lists.

chip
chip
7 years ago

The super visa for seniors requires that they have comprehensive health insurance.

Better them than the 200,000 other immigrants a year who pay less in taxes than they receive in medical and other benefits.

An Observer
An Observer
7 years ago

@Jasn Kiney

Are you Beavis or Butthead, hehehehehe?

mac
mac
7 years ago

FWIW, Rosie said there was no bubble in Canada after the first mortgage tightening. He reversed his bubble stance back then.

Jasn Kiney
Jasn Kiney
7 years ago

The immigration dept has brought in 20,000 seniors inn the last year under the table….hehehehe. They will not be counted in stats or population statistics because they’re not permanent even though they are here for good…hehehehe. I’m sorry but they there will be 25,000 more seniors coming in as permanents this year…hehehehe…developers just love it…hehehehe

Oh, also, make sure you don’t have to see a Dr. or go to an emrg room…hehehehe

Most Canadians are too dumb to know this even happened…hehehehehe

http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1197533/super-visa-keeps-getting-more-popular-20-000-and-counting-more-than-1-000-super-visas-issued-every-month

Luvig von Mises
Luvig von Mises
7 years ago

I’m an immigrant and not a big fan of the royals or royalty in general (I just can’t accept the whole idea of some people being born special and privileged). But I take the good with the bad and swearing allegiance was a small price to pay to get to live here. Because as we all know this is the Best Place on Earth!

frank
frank
7 years ago

Among the would-be citizens now represented by Mr. Rosenthal is Michael McAteer, 79, a long-time republican who grew up in Ireland but has lived in Canada since 1964. He has never been able to become a citizen because of his refusal to swear the oath. Mr. McAteer, a former journalist at the Toronto Star, calls the monarchy an “anachronistic” institution ill-suited to Canada’s multicultural society. “I obey the law. I’ve probably seen more of Canada than most Canadians. I’ve shovelled my sidewalk, and you know, paid taxes,” he said. “I feel very comfortable here, in Canada. But still, after all that, I still cannot become a Canadian citizen.” …….. I think the oath should be to up-hold the laws of Canada, defend it and to pay taxes. that makes more sense than pledging an oath to a nice, elderly lady… Read more »

damien
damien
7 years ago

David Rosenberg was the guy bullish with gold and CAN$ 6 months ago.Enough said.

canadian
canadian
7 years ago

When the U.S economy does well ,the B.C economy does bad .That’s what happened before when interest rates rose and B.C was complaining to the feds to do something about it ,which they didn’t.I think it all depends on foreign money as for real estate prices in the future.

Herman
Herman
7 years ago

Head shake. Immigrants who want to become Canadian citizens are fighting a court battle because they don’t want to pledge an oath to the Queen. Here’s an idea: If you don’t want to live in a Constitutional Monarchy, then don’t immigrate to one!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/would-be-canadian-citizens-set-to-fight-oath-to-queen-as-discriminatory/article13160104/

Ludvig von Mises
Ludvig von Mises
7 years ago

“Ohh boy listings are cratering and sales are steady”

As much as I like what you’re saying, the truth is listings and sales vary significantly from day to day. Just yesterday we had eighty something sales.

billy
billy
7 years ago

Ohh boy listings are cratering and sales are steady

paulb
7 years ago

New Listings 170
Price Changes 106
Sold Listings 162
TI:18013

http://www.paulboenisch.com

franko
franko
7 years ago

” investors are watching this market very carefully hoping for the slightest uptick in activity so they can cash out ”

You nailed it bullwhip!
Unfortunately (and sadly), with HAM gone the only suckers left are our own young’uns trying to beat the deadline before those higher rates kick in.

VMD
7 years ago

Financial Post:Productive Conversations: Rising Interest Rates
(short, funny educational video)

frank
frank
7 years ago

Is this a HAM flipping?

Loos at the comment on Fish’s site. Trying to make $150 in two months!

http://fishyre.blogspot.ca/2013/07/no-ham-means-no-bacon.html#comment-form

bullwhip29
bullwhip29
7 years ago

@ Photonic

He doesn’t sound very bullish in these articles from 2011, 2012…just sayin…

Before you know it, he’ll be working as Chief Economist for a Howe St bucket shop (assuming there are still some in business)

http://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2011/02/04/housing_prices_to_drop_25_forecaster_predicts.html

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/11/canadian-housing-prices-are-not-sustainable-david-rosenberg/

jesse
7 years ago

Here’s Bill McBride (Calculated Risk) on Rosenberg last year:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/06/david-rosenberg-cracks-me-up.html

Photonic Integration bitchez
Photonic Integration bitchez
7 years ago

@ bullwhip

Rosenberg has been a bull of most things Canadian for quite some time and a vocal bear on most things USA. It has been a fucking horrendous strategy for the last 2 years and anyone following his advice has got to be feeling just about ready to eat their gun