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BC Real Estate Market: is the worst behind us?

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With the exception of SFH homes in Vancouver, recent years haven’t been kind to real estate investors in BC.

Vancouver condo prices have been pretty much flat for years with miserable cap rates. Victoria has been sinking, the interior is deep underwater since the market peak and Whistler condo HPI is down more than 40%.

But cheer up! At least one economist says the worst is behind us!

“For all the horror stories out there surrounding Canadian residential real estate, the sector is actually holding in very well,” chief economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates said today.

“Note that the worst in British Columbia may be behind us as starts there shot up to 31,000 units from 23,000 in May to stand at the best level in a year,” he added.

Sounds like another one for the bottom call thread!

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George
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Vancouver may be getting its own bike-gate scandal. Mayor Robertson’s new home is believed to be at Point Grey Road near York Avenue, at the very end of the controversial, proposed bike path on Point Grey Road. This creates a potential conflict of interest for the mayor, as it looks like he was negotiating the sale during the public consultation process on the bike lane. From Village Whisperer:

“What no one told the public was that the dedicated bike path that would lead to the front door of the Mayor’s new house. A house which – at the time of the meetings – Robertson may have already bought (or was under negotiation to buy).”

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/07/housegate-when-did-mayor-buy-and-when.html

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4 years 10 months ago
southseacompany
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Global says,”As wealth grows across Vancouver, have-nots get squeezed out”

http://globalnews.ca/news/707984/most-lower-mainland-families-incomes-increasing-in-past-10-years-map/

““By definition it sorts out who is allowed to come and play here: You better be well educated, you better have yourself a pretty good family income, because boy, you can’t get into this market otherwise,” said Lindsay Meredith, professor of marketing at Simon Fraser University.”

With video.

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4 years 10 months ago
Many Franks
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@George: Oh, for crapping out loud.

Are we really proposing that the mayor, who may or may not want to cycle to work, is now going to strong-arm a bike route onto it for his own personal use?

Point Grey Road is in desperate need of change. Ever notice those 30km/hr signs all along it? Right, neither does anyone else, and city hall can only pretend for so long.

The municipal bike network is in need of a dedicated east/west connector (you can argue that if you like). But c’mon, there’s a lot more going on at city hall than Dastardly Mayor Gregor crushing the little guy under the (bicycle) wheel.

There’s a survey article at the Georgia Straight about this. Believe it or not, the discussion was going long before Gregor decided to move west. And he’s recused himself from decision-making about this.

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4 years 10 months ago
Melba
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“By definition it sorts out who is allowed to come and play here: You better be well educated, you better have yourself a pretty good family income, because boy, you can’t get into this market otherwise,” said Lindsay Meredith, professor of marketing at Simon Fraser University.”

That’s exactly what they said about Whistler 10 years ago and look what’s happening there. This is nothing more than more pumping disguised as social commentary. Soon enough, those ‘Haves’ will be at the centre of the crater and the ‘Have Nots’ at the periphery will be the new ‘Haves’. Everything is unfolding as it should.

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4 years 10 months ago
crabman
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If by “worst” they mean the bubble which has caused Vancouverites to take on too much debt or move, then yes, it’s probably behind us.

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4 years 10 months ago
Many Franks
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(Stuck in moderation hell — reposting.) @George: Oh, for crapping out loud. Are we really proposing that the mayor, who may or may not want to cycle to work, is now going to strong-arm a bike route onto Point Grey Road for his own personal use? Point Grey Road is in desperate need of change. Ever notice those 30km/hr signs all along it? Right, neither does anyone else, and city hall can only pretend for so long. The municipal bike network is in need of a dedicated east/west connector (you can argue that if you like). But c’mon, there’s a lot more going on at city hall than Dastardly Mayor Gregor crushing the little guy under the (bicycle) wheel. There’s a survey article in the Georgia Straight about this. Believe it or not, the discussion was going long before Gregor… Read more »
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4 years 10 months ago
b5baxter
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@George

A greenway along Point Grey and Cornwall was recommended way back in the 1995 Greenway Plan almost two decades ago. That was back when Phillip Owen was mayor.

The idea of the Point Grey bike route has most recently been highly promoted by Peter Ladner – former NPA mayoral candidate.

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4 years 10 months ago
Turkey
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@b5baxter,

The idea of the Point Grey bike route has most recently been highly promoted by Peter Ladner – former NPA mayoral candidate.

…and you can see Peter slugging it out in the comment-section trenches here.

Don’t read it if you’re low on faith in humanity: if the article’s out-of-touch NIMBYism isn’t bad enough, the loutish comments at the bottom are the maggoty icing on a pungent turd cake.

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4 years 10 months ago
ex-kitsie
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The original greenway proposal (dating back to the ’60s) was a socialistic ideal that all citizens should have a view of the ocean. The city set up a fund to buy houses as they came up for sale on the north side of Point Grey Road. If it wasn’t for this fund there would be no “pocket” parks along the road such as the green spaces at the foot of Trafalgar or Macdonald. Sadly, house prices skyrocketed and after a few houses were purchased and then torn down (the house that used to be at Trafalger & Point Grey Road was barged up to Powell River as I recall) the city shelved the plan. What we have now is coddle the rich and to hell with the rest. And we mustn’t forget George Puil, ex-NPA councillor, who managed to have… Read more »
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4 years 10 months ago
Many Franks
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@Turkey: Ever notice that Facebook-based social commentary with real names actually manages to out-dumb anonymous or pseudonymous commentary? You’re a trump card, Facebook.

It’s fun to watch Peter Ladner go “purveyor of death and orphanmaker” on a defenseless cigarette marketing rep.

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4 years 10 months ago
bullwhip29
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RE: Rosenberg Another classic example of a bruised and battered perma-bear turning bullish at precisely the wrong moment. Too many examples of RE flippers in Vanc starting to get their a$$es seriously handed to them in recent months for this to be anything close to a bottom in the market. IMHO, hundreds, if not thousands of “investors” are watching this market very carefully hoping for the slightest uptick in activity so they can cash out (or at least exit with most of their limbs intact). For the most part, would be sellers have been reluctant to show their hands in the last couple of years, but that is beginning to change now as the clock ticks away, tenants become much harder to find, the umpteenth mortgage payment gets processed and property owners get whacked for a few grand more in… Read more »
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4 years 10 months ago
jesse
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“Lindsay Meredith”

One of my favourite local business professor commentators. Also in the running are Sauder’s Tsur Somerville and Tom Davidoff. You may hate their messages but they’re entertaining to listen to.

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4 years 10 months ago
Photonic Integration bitchez
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@ bullwhip

Rosenberg has been a bull of most things Canadian for quite some time and a vocal bear on most things USA. It has been a fucking horrendous strategy for the last 2 years and anyone following his advice has got to be feeling just about ready to eat their gun

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4 years 10 months ago
jesse
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Here’s Bill McBride (Calculated Risk) on Rosenberg last year:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/06/david-rosenberg-cracks-me-up.html

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4 years 10 months ago
bullwhip29
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@ Photonic

He doesn’t sound very bullish in these articles from 2011, 2012…just sayin…

Before you know it, he’ll be working as Chief Economist for a Howe St bucket shop (assuming there are still some in business)

http://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2011/02/04/housing_prices_to_drop_25_forecaster_predicts.html

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/11/canadian-housing-prices-are-not-sustainable-david-rosenberg/

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4 years 10 months ago
frank
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Is this a HAM flipping?

Loos at the comment on Fish’s site. Trying to make $150 in two months!

http://fishyre.blogspot.ca/2013/07/no-ham-means-no-bacon.html#comment-form

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4 years 10 months ago
VMD
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Financial Post:Productive Conversations: Rising Interest Rates
(short, funny educational video)

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4 years 10 months ago
franko
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” investors are watching this market very carefully hoping for the slightest uptick in activity so they can cash out ”

You nailed it bullwhip!
Unfortunately (and sadly), with HAM gone the only suckers left are our own young’uns trying to beat the deadline before those higher rates kick in.

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4 years 10 months ago
paulb
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New Listings 170
Price Changes 106
Sold Listings 162
TI:18013

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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4 years 10 months ago
billy
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Ohh boy listings are cratering and sales are steady

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4 years 10 months ago
Ludvig von Mises
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“Ohh boy listings are cratering and sales are steady”

As much as I like what you’re saying, the truth is listings and sales vary significantly from day to day. Just yesterday we had eighty something sales.

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4 years 10 months ago
Herman
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Head shake. Immigrants who want to become Canadian citizens are fighting a court battle because they don’t want to pledge an oath to the Queen. Here’s an idea: If you don’t want to live in a Constitutional Monarchy, then don’t immigrate to one!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/would-be-canadian-citizens-set-to-fight-oath-to-queen-as-discriminatory/article13160104/

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4 years 10 months ago
canadian
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When the U.S economy does well ,the B.C economy does bad .That’s what happened before when interest rates rose and B.C was complaining to the feds to do something about it ,which they didn’t.I think it all depends on foreign money as for real estate prices in the future.

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4 years 10 months ago
damien
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David Rosenberg was the guy bullish with gold and CAN$ 6 months ago.Enough said.

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4 years 10 months ago
frank
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Among the would-be citizens now represented by Mr. Rosenthal is Michael McAteer, 79, a long-time republican who grew up in Ireland but has lived in Canada since 1964. He has never been able to become a citizen because of his refusal to swear the oath.

Mr. McAteer, a former journalist at the Toronto Star, calls the monarchy an “anachronistic” institution ill-suited to Canada’s multicultural society.

“I obey the law. I’ve probably seen more of Canada than most Canadians. I’ve shovelled my sidewalk, and you know, paid taxes,” he said. “I feel very comfortable here, in Canada. But still, after all that, I still cannot become a Canadian citizen.”

……..

I think the oath should be to up-hold the laws of Canada, defend it and to pay taxes. that makes more sense than pledging an oath to a nice, elderly lady 3000 miles away.

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4 years 10 months ago