FFFA! Holiday weekend for the neighbors

It’s that time of the week again!

Free – for – all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

school enrolment declines
Squamish data
less interest in condos
banker anecdote
Realtor hunger index
coastal millions decline
growing a mortgage

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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VanRant
Guest
VanRant
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

HEY U GUYS!!!

were’s the crash?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Good jobs report out of the US which keeps the winding down of QE on track for September.

Bond yields rocket to fresh 2 year highs.

Denial is more than a river in Egypt.
Guest
Denial is more than a river in Egypt.

@ Bull 3. Crash in progress. REBGV benchmark for Metro Van down 12% since peak of April 2012.

Softy
Guest
Softy

“Crash in progress. REBGV benchmark for Metro Van down 12% since peak of April 2012.”

It’s more like 4% down. That is a soft landing.

daveraver
Member
daveraver

Who says we’ve landed? This is going to unravel slowly…

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

bears don’t even have a grasp of the basic stats… i’d laugh if it wasn’t so sad. no wonder they’ve been wrong for 10 years.

daveraver
Member
daveraver

We hardly consider you an expert either.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

they hide under their wet beds, havent been out much to enjoy this best place on earth even in this kinda weather.

Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...

@Softy

That is a soft landing.

We haven’t touched down yet.

Many Franks
Member

Well, it’s in my news feed so I guess I’ll post it here. Metro Vancouver homeowners’ ardour for condo living cools: survey:

In Metro Vancouver, however, the percentage of potential homebuyers considering a condo purchase had declined to 28 per cent, according to the report, compared with the 33 per cent recorded by Pollara in last fall’s version of the survey.

…and then…

Nationally, the accuracy margin is plus or minus 3.1 per cent 19 times out of 20; however, the margin increases to plus or minus 8.5 per cent for Metro Vancouver results.

In summary: the headline and focus of the article are based on data that is statistically insignificant, but let’s publish it anyway.

Not to mention: “I would like to buy a house” does not mean “I am able to buy a house.”

Many Franks
Member

Go East: Families leave Vancouver for suburbs Surrey, Coquitlam, Langley school enrolments rise while more expensive areas see decline:

An evaluation of Ministry of Education enrolment numbers has revealed that students are moving east to more affordable suburbs such as Coquitlam, Surrey and Langley.

Moving on to the requisite anecdotal part of our story…

Would Cowan move closer to the city core if she could afford it? “I wouldn’t change it for anything. I love it here. We live on a mountain and I can walk to the ocean. Vancouver is always, always busy.”

Mountain Meadows is a short walk from the brackish, foul-smelling estuary that puts Burrard Inlet out of its misery. But it’s salty, so yes, I guess it’s technically the ocean.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

So much for mayor nut-job’s assertion that people, including families, want to live downtown

PCinWA
Member
PCinWA

The shares of US homebuilders have been getting crushed in recent weeks, in anticipation of higher mortgage rates meaningfully reducing demand for new homes. The homebuilder ETF (ticker: ITB) is off 16% since May 15, and the stocks of big homebuilders like D.R. Horton, KB Home and Pulte are now 25-30% below their highs.

While Canada is dissimilar from the US in many respects, laws of basic supply and demand are the same. Demand for homes in Canada WILL decline meaningfully in the coming months, which will do nothing but push prices downward.

@Not much of a name
Guest
@Not much of a name

“We haven’t touched down yet.”

looking at this graph one can argue that we have touched down yet. who are you to say different? the track record on this blog sucks balls. no one can predict the future.

http://vancouverpricedrop.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/capture.png

daveraver
Member
daveraver

That also includes you.

slurker
Guest
slurker
@Anonymous,11 People including families do want to live downtown. Unfortunately families and people in general cannot live in the type of apartments available downtown. 1 or 2brs that are built are just too small for any kind of reasonable living. A family of 4 requires at a minimum 1600 sq. ft. of living space – the number of dwellings this size in downtown Vancouver are very, very few. All that greenest, liveable, family friendly fluff spouted out by city hall is just that, fluff. Just because city hall decides to put in a few bike lanes and compost organic waste doesn’t make Vancouver green or liveable or family friendly. City hall is basically a pawn to two interests, the people who already own houses and want keep ‘their’ neighbourhoods static and the developers that build tiny condos in the areas… Read more »
Van Coffee
Guest
Van Coffee

@ slurker –

Good points.

Will be very interesting to see what the result of the massive proposed rezoning for Marpole will bring about.

I have lived in many parts of Vancouver, and by coincidence ended up in Marpole with my family for the last few years.

I have to say, it is probably one of the best, most family orienter parts of town. It has been changing with more Mainlanders recently, but they are not an overwhelming majority.

I think the fact that I had like 200+ kids come to my door speaks volumes about the family oriented nature of the area. Anyway – who knew?

Anyway – I am keenly interested in the City Hall & Developers vs. The Marpole Resident battle that is happening right now.

Cheers,
VC

Van Coffee
Guest
Van Coffee

Oooops …..200+ kids come to my door at Halloween….

Democrass
Guest
Democrass

This comment is correct:

“Crash in progress. REBGV benchmark for Metro Van down 12% since peak of April 2012.”

The decline in the “HPI benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver” has fallen 12% (or 11.977% to be exact).

Below are quotes copied straight from REBGV press releases.

From April 2012:

The MLS® HPI benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $683,800

From June 2013:

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is currently $601,900.

Van Coffee
Guest
Van Coffee

@ Democrass

YUP

Democrass
Guest
Democrass

Detatched benchmark as declined 13.6% since April 2012

From April 2012:

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in April 2012 reached 1,126, a decline of 19.7 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in April 2011, and a 17.8 per cent decrease from the 1,370 units sold in April 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 6.3 per cent from April 2011 to $1,064,800.

From June 2013:

Sales of detached properties reached 1,102 in June 2013, an increase of 19.7 per cent from the 921 detached sales recorded in June 2012, and a 25.1 per cent decrease from the 1,471 units sold in June 2011. The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 4.3 per cent from June 2012 to $919,900.

Democrass
Guest
Democrass
If you compare from May 2012 to June 2013, using the recalculated HPI you get a much smaller decline of 3.4% for the “The MLS® HPI benchmark price* for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver”. And you get much smaller decline of 4.4% for detached properties. If it can be trusted, the recalculated HPI indicates soft landing. This is from the May 2012 press release: The MLS® HPI benchmark price* for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $625,100, up 3.3 per cent compared to May 2011 and up 2.4 per cent over the last three months. The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland** is $558,300, which is a 3 per cent increase compared to May 2011 and a 2.3 per cent increase compared to three months ago. Sales of detached properties on the… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

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Barb Rennie
Guest
Barb Rennie
Today I drove into the Seafair subdivision of Richmond, which the locals refer to as the “Monds”, because the street names all end with m-o-n-d, ie diamond, oakmond, etc. My last visit was just over 1 year ago. I was shocked to say the least that the entire streetscape changed seemingly overnight. Monster houses sprouted everywhere, along with real estate signs on every single one of them. When you look down the street, it appears that almost every other house is for sale. I remember that this neck of the woods had larger lots with old style split level shabby built bungalows for the working/lower class in Richmond. A couple of years ago, these lots sold like hotcakes to Mainland chinese buyers. From the looks of the situation, they bought these lots not intending to live in the houses (which… Read more »
Van Coffee
Guest
Van Coffee

Barb –

It kind of makes me sick.

So many of these houses sit empty for years at a time.

This poor treatment of precious capital disgusts me.

Oh well.

A fool and his money are soon parted.

VC

patriotz
Member

“People including families do want to live downtown. ”

People including families do want to live in the British Properties too. But the great majority of them are outbid by people with higher incomes.

And it’s the same situation with downtown. Downtown is not affordable for families because people with higher disposable incomes outbid them. That’s the reason why 3-bedroom condos aren’t built. The developers aren’t out to get families, they are just responding naturally to demand.

This situation is not the fault of greedy property owners or City Hall either. It’s just the market. Other Canadian cities are the same. As are US cities with desirable central areas such as San Francisco. But it’s seen as a problem in Vancouver because the inner city is separately incorporated.

@patriotz
Guest
@patriotz
wrong. the situation in vancouver and the lower mainland is a direct result of policy, not free markets. policies that are designed or tolerated to enrich developers. the policy of having people “live where they work” results in high demand for central real estate and crappy transportation. if people should live where they work, why would you invest in transportation? the policy of having an agricultural land reserve results in less available land. richmond is half unoccupied. this despite it being across the river from a city where a house costs $1 million dollars. the anti-car policy. the region has a policy to get people out of their cars. this effectively means that the region wants to make it harder for you to get around. parking tax, translink fuel tax. removing left turn lanes. removing viaducts. they are pushing the… Read more »
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