Friday Free – for – all!

It’s the end of another week!

Let’s do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend!

housing boom pushes 1 in 10 to deep debt
Inventory graph update
Home prices suffer smallest increase since 09
Are we getting richer?
Absurd property comparison
Vancouver island historical data
putting the ‘rust’ in ‘trust’

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links,  thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Don Lapre
Member
Don Lapre

First!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

VMD
Member

Fraser Valley RE Stats:
Sales: (7 out of 22 business days)
Jul 2013: 351 (-11%)
Jul 2012: 393

(in line with June’s -9.3% YoY sales decline)

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Remember way back when Squamish was to become boom city thanks to the Olympics.
Now thinks look not so rosy.
http://www.squamishreporter.com/2013/07/06/coming-to-terms-with-unpaid-bills/#.UeAuGqN5mSM

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

http://www.squamishreporter.com/2013/04/06/with-industry-gone-tax-burden-falls-on-residential/#.UeAvLqN5mSM

Exactly what’s going to happen in Richmond and happen as more and more commercial units are replaced by residential.
Get ready for some big property tax increases.

Yalie
Guest
Yalie

Teranet data are out for June. Vancouver is +0.93% MOM and +1.53% YTD. Before you bulls get too excited at the YTD increase, remember that in past years the majority of price increases happen in the first 6 months, and this year has been extremely weak in comparison to previous years:

Year June-YTD
2003 +5.6%
2004 +9.1%
2005 +6.5%
2006 +10.1%
2007 +6.0%
2008 +4.5%
2009 -5.1%
2010 +5.1%
2011 +7.5%
2012 +2.4%
2013 +1.5%

This is the smallest increase in the past 10 years with the exception of 2009. It’s likely all downhill for the next 6 months.

Whose making money?
Guest
Whose making money?

#4 – That is very sad

Seafair Dweller
Guest
Seafair Dweller

Mornin’ bears, bulls, and “unsures”,

Has anyone heard anything lately about the future of the immigrant investor program? Last winter, Jason Kenney was quoted as saying there would be an announcement by the end of June.

@Son of Ponzi
Guest
@Son of Ponzi

Squamish needs a monorail!

Softy
Guest
Softy

#5 gives the bears a nice lesson in crashes and soft landings.

June 2009 YTD -5.1% is a crash.

June 2013 YTD +1.5% is a soft landing.

Wait another two years if you want, prices will not be meaningfully lower. They will probably be higher.

Bailing in BC
Guest

Son of Ponzi. Many of those people in construction were also living large on that boom and building themselves fancy houses on the hill. Unpaid bills become their unpaid mortgages. Check out the number of listings on Jay Cres and Amblepath. Something has to give there soon one would think.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

what happened to VHB? is he still in hibernation? the fact that VHB is still in hiding is the clearest signal that we are not crashing.

i wonder how much longer jesse and patriotz can hold out. they are defiantly slowing down.

maybe the three amigos have decided to join the flat earth society?

oh, well…. there’ll be another generation of bears. like they say, “there’s a sucker born every minute”.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

vancouver real estate bears, welcome to the dustbin of history. say hi to communism for me.

franko
Member
franko

From BNN:
“Scotia Bank drops bid to enter China because of changing conditions”

Resource sector in BC will be hit hard by China’s faltering economy.

HAM is rapidly changing to CAM.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi
The fact is that RE in Richmond in going down, and going down fast. This is a true story: An aquantaince of mine put their house on the market for 788,000 this week. Which is 60k below assessment. They had it on the market 2 years ago for 1.08 mill, but by then the market had started to sour in Richmond and they withdrew the listings, waiting for better times. Now they have to sell because they are moving. They just told me that their agent told them that a similar house has come on the market down the road, listed for 719,000. The agent advised them because of the slow market that they should lower their price to 709,000. The property is in the Seafair area, which is particularily hard hit by the downturn. HAM used to drive prices… Read more »
gokou3
Guest
gokou3

@ Yalie #5,

These are great stats. I wonder if you also have the historical stats for the other halves, namely July-Dec periods?

Year June-YTD
2003 +5.6%
2004 +9.1%
2005 +6.5%
2006 +10.1%
2007 +6.0%
2008 +4.5%
2009 -5.1%
2010 +5.1%
2011 +7.5%
2012 +2.4%
2013 +1.5%

Barb Rennie
Guest
Barb Rennie

Son of Ponzi,

Your friend in Richmond is in the same boat as many Sellers, took their house off the market and relist this spring thinking they will fetch a higher price. This boat is getting really crowded, standing room only. If they HAVE to move, they will be selling a little bit lower than market. Their sales data will move the market a bit lower, and by September we will see another 10% off the price. Soft landing = 10% discount every 6 months?

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

More bad RE news in Richmond.
More leaky condos. Asbestos involved. Yikes.

http://www.richmondreview.com/news/215165521.html

CAM
Guest
CAM

@13
HAM Bad, CAM Good..

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

CAM, short for Cameron Muir.
Have not heard from him for a while.

Democrass
Member
Democrass

HPI has a YTD increase (described as the 6 month change in the latest stats) of 1.9% for both Greater Vancouver and Lower Mainland.

Teranet is up 1.5% in the last six months.

HPI is 30% higher than Teranet. That is big difference.

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV%20Stats%20Package%2C%20June%202013.pdf

patriotz
Member

Families devastated as rent-to-own company owes millions

Rent to own is at best a bad deal and at worst a scam. Always.

kabloona
Member
kabloona
What an idiot….. http://www.timescolonist.com/news/b-c/premier-clark-looks-for-non-smoking-no-pets-home-in-new-kelowna-b-c-riding-1.519886 Quote: “In Kelowna on Thursday, Clark said she has already been on the Internet looking for a home but would also like to hear from anyone in real estate about a home that requires low maintenance. “I have a cat, but I won’t be bringing her. So no pets, no smoking and low maintenance,” she said. The premier told reporters at her victory party on Wednesday night that she didn’t want to be “presumptuous” and start looking for a house while she was campaigning, but she’s getting serious now. “I think the market’s good, it’s a buyers market. And you know the riding is really getting stoked again, so I want to make sure I get in before prices start to rise.” Yeah, buy now or be priced out forever. 🙂 Oh, and by the way… Read more »
Yalie
Guest
Yalie
@gokou3 Here are the price changes for Jan-Jun and Jul-Dec (all data is available for free from the Teranet site btw): Year Jan-Jun Jul-Aug 2003 +5.6% +5.3% 2004 +9.1% +2.1% 2005 +6.5% +6.6% 2006 +10.1% +9.8% 2007 +6.0% +5.5% 2008 +4.5% -5.9% 2009 -5.1% +10.8% 2010 +5.1% +0.0% 2011 +7.5% +0.7% 2012 +2.4% -4.3% Excluding 2009, price growth averaged 6.3% in the first half of the year, but only 2.2% in the second half of the year (excluding 2009 is fully justifiable in my opinion given how anomalous that year was – i.e. that’s when the world financial system was imploding and interest rates were artificially slammed to the floor). You get a more interesting picture when you put the data in a scatter plot. I did a linear regression to see if a given year’s first half price changes… Read more »
chilled
Member
chilled

kabloona Says:
July 12th, 2013 at 2:13 pm 22
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Earlier, she described the Westside-Kelowna riding as the “cradle of free enterprise”…..

http://www2.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=8c098af7-b202-49a0-832f-0c724660735c

Wacky-Bennett style free enterprise, I guess.
🙁

====================================

She’s right. With all the thugs, bikers and criminals in Kelowna, what BC region better defines “free enterprise”??

Yalie
Guest
Yalie

Oops – the “labels” above should have read:

Year Jan-Jun Jul-Dec

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