Hardships for BC Realtors

The Globe and Mail has a ‘financial facelift‘ featuring a realtor couple from BC.

If you thought real estate was always the road to riches you might be surprised by some of the numbers in this article.

She is 52, he is 66. With commission income sagging, they are revisiting their retirement plan, which is to pay off their real estate loans and sell their two rental properties when the market recovers. The rentals are operating at a loss.

This couple has a cash flow problem, and this while the market has been flat as Dave would say.

What happens if we see a sharper correction in our high prices and how many other salespeople are in the same boat?

Read the full article here.

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RFM
Guest
RFM

The June 2013 Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index, at 60%, is the second highest since my record keeping began in 1999, bested only by the 64% in 2012. Comparing the ‘recovery’ year of 2009 with 2013 so far, the first two months of 2013 saw better numbers for realtors than 2009, but since March, the 2013 numbers are much worse. I keep waiting for the REBGV website (http://www.rebgv.org/about-rebgv) to change their claim of more than 11,000 realtor members. Details and comparison data for the last 14 years at: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Vancouver-Realtor-Hunger-Index

chilled
Member
chilled

This article is less to do with Realturds than it is to do about baby boomers living large.

Generally, the most entitled generation in the history of the Western World.

Dave
Member

Yup, flat as it can be:

http://www.rebgv.org/home-price-index?region=all&type=all&date=2013-06-01

Lower volume is what you expect in a balanced market, which obviously hurts realtors, who got used to fast and easy sales during the bull market. They have to work for those commissions now.

George
Guest
George

Headline on Zero Hedge: “Hot Money Escapes China at Fastest Pace in 7 Months”

“For the first time since November, PBOC data indicated banks, including the central bank itself, sold a net CNY41.2 billion in June. This compares with the huge average CNY315.2 billion in net purchases by banks during the first five months of 2013. While some claim this outflow as ‘transitory’ due to Bernanke’s ‘Taper’ talk in June (that has been walked back since), as MNI reports, China’s ongoing economic slowdown has market participants continuing to brace for a return to capital outflows.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-22/hot-money-escapes-china-fastest-pace-7-months

My question: Might some of the capital flowing out of China find its way into Vancouver RE?

Softy
Guest
Softy

“My question: Might some of the capital flowing out of China find its way into Vancouver RE?”

The article is talking about banks moving money – not rich party offcials with black money. The latter is obviously not tracked by PBOC data. The outflows generally into US dollar assets- that’s why the dollar was going up when emerging markets were falling.

You don’t need stupid-talk like this to support the local RE market. It is doing very well without it. It just makes bulls look like fools.

taylor192
Member

I don’t understand how the rental is operating at a loss with only a $28K mortgage…

Even adding the $93K LOC any decent rental property should come out ahead…

Unless it is a cottage only partially rented a few months of the year, then it needs to go.

As for the “hold till the next boom” they might want to know the cycles are usually 5-10 years long, so they could be waiting a decade for prices to climb again, losing out on inflation over that decade. Sell the rental, harvest $400K of equity, pay off the LOC and invest the rest.

registered
Member
registered

@chilled

They arrived at their predicament through ill-advised investing of their dual incomes and aren’t asking for bailouts, loan assistance, subsidies or more than financial planning advise. Nowhere in that breakdown is there anything about them living the high life. How you reached that conclusion is an open question, but you might consider a looser tinfoil hat or a little Lansinoh on that rash.

widening gyre
Guest
widening gyre

I was speaking with the coordinator of the local food bank a week or so ago. I asked her where most of her volunteers came from and she told me that her latest recruit was a local realtor who was volunteering as a thank you for the help that the food bank had given her. RFM it seems that your hunger index has some truth to it, there are literally hungry realtors looking for handouts. Almost all of the realtors around here have other jobs to tide them over and many have sold or are trying to sell their properties.

Aggregator
Guest
Aggregator
Well, what I presumed was happening with recently completed units being hidden on MLS (shadow inventory), now appears to be true. @Jesse http://www.truecondos.com/million-dollar-condo-market-facts/ Fact #3 “The scariest part of the high-end condo market to me is all the inventory of $1M+ units that are NOT on the MLS but are still available for sale. All of the recently completed 5-star condo hotel buildings as well as many other ‘ordinary’ buildings with penthouse suites have unsold inventory of larger units that are not advertised on the MLS. ***It’s common practice that if a builder has say 20 units left to sell when a building finishes, they only put about 4 or 5 on the MLS.”*** Trust me folks. Take every stat being spewed out by the boards with a grain of salt. They are not accountable to anyone and will do… Read more »
Dave
Member

Aggregator, you are looking for conspiracies where none exist. It’s not possible to fake prices. The reality is that prices have been flat for 5 years.

Aggregator
Guest
Aggregator
@Dave “It’s not possible to fake prices.” Realtor Group May Have Overstated Number of Existing Houses Sold Since 2007 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704476604576158452087956150.html “The National Association of Realtors, which produces a widely watched monthly estimate of sales of previously owned homes, is examining the possibility that it over-counted U.S. home sales dating back as far as 2007.” The group reported that there were 4.9 million sales of previously owned homes in 2010, down 5.7% from 5.2 million in 2009. But CoreLogic, a real-estate analytics firm based in Santa Ana, Calif., counted just 3.3 million homes sales last year, a drop of 10.8% from 3.7 million in 2009. CoreLogic says NAR could have overstated home sales by as much as 20%. — If average price is comprised of total dollar volume divided by sales and total dollar volume is comprised of prices times sales,… Read more »
Dave
Member

Gator, do you have any idea of how sales are tracked and recorded in BC? The real estate associations can’t ‘cook the books’. It’s not possible.

arit
Member

Hi All,

Posted this question at Garths but I think I might get more relevant responses here:

————-
A question for all experts,

Assuming we wanted to ‘buy’ a house in Richmond BC in 2016, but were afraid of flooding.
A brand new barge made of aluminum and plastic barrels costs 15-20K.
A nice prefabricated house, like the ones from http://www.bluhomes.com/ goes for 200-300K.

Can I buy land, lay the barge on the ground, order a house and put it on the barge?
Then when the flooding comes, the whole thing will rise (assume some anchoring system in way of pile drived posts), and return safely to the bottom after the flood passes?

Is there any bylaw forbidding that?

Thanks

arit

bears
Guest
bears

this realtor couple were not happened to be paulp couple, were they? they need to go out and hunt for real business, not just to sit here and provide useless number to the wrong targeted market hoping to earn some business from bears. diapers are just getting more expensive.

Softy
Guest
Softy

“Gator, do you have any idea of how sales are tracked and recorded in BC?”

Do you have any idea, Dave? If so, please explain how sales are tracked and recorded in BC.

shock_minus_control
Guest
shock_minus_control

@arit – that is officially the craziest thing i’ve seen on this forum, which is a feat unto itself. Kudos.

arit
Member

shock_minus_control

Thanks, appreciated. It’s nice to know I still have it 🙂

Cheers

One Migrant Economy
Guest
One Migrant Economy

Arit, I think that your idea is valid and wise, and totally in keeping with the power of Hades (Uranian astrology), its position in Cancer the next 3 decades.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
Dave
Member

Softly, I’m sure MLS is faking the numbers and giving the Land Title Office false information on transactions. I’m sure buyers are all faking their purchase prices when they file for the PTT. If that conspiracy seems plausible to anybody, then life is going to deliver more pain than my words ever could.

VanRant
Member
VanRant

Dave @ 20
We all know the Real Estate industries has not been honest with us, like sending out misleading stats that distorts the market. Oh don’t forget the Lee sisters at mac.

jesse
Member

Applying basic math should reveal that there is hardship. From a Realtor’s perspective there has been a recession since 2011.

If sales continue at current levels (which are measurably improved compared to this time in 2012) they will be about the same as 2012. That means the “recession” will have at least temporarily ended. But that necessarily means people need to exit the industry without marked improvement in sales back to levels seen before 2012, or everyone will need to take a huge pay cut going forward. Not pleasant.

Dave
Member

jesse, I think the herd will get thinned out. It’s no longer easy money and that element will walk away, but some will come back once volume picks up again in a number of years. This is all a good thing IMO.

Dave
Member

Madashell, have you heard about chemtrails?

Softy
Guest
Softy

“Softly, I’m sure MLS is faking the numbers and giving the Land Title Office false information on transactions. I’m sure buyers are all faking their purchase prices when they file for the PTT. If that conspiracy seems plausible to anybody, then life is going to deliver more pain than my words ever could.”

WTF? Who implied a conspiracy? I simply want to know how sales data are tracked an collected. I guess you don’t know. I suppose your arrogant rhetoric is just that.

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