June 2013: YOY sales up, prices down

June REBGV stats are out and compared to last year sales are up and prices are down.

On the bullish side month over month stats are seeing prices rise.

On the bearish side sales are 22.2% lower than the 10 year average for June.

VMD posted the following summary:

June 2011-2013 Greater Vancouver SFH Stats by Region
Sales: +51% vs 2012; -27% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 48% vs 24% vs 48% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -5.5% (-8,-9.1,-8.4,-9,-6.3,-6.5,-4.2,-4) (prev months’ YoY % change)

Vancouver West
Sales: +42% vs 2012; -32% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 57% vs 31% vs 65% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -6.1% (-8,-8.5,-9.1,-9.2,-7.5,-5.5)

Vancouver East
Sales: +32% vs 2012; -22% vs 2011.
S/L Ratio: 55% vs 37% vs 73% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -2.2% (-2.8,-2.8,-2.6,-2.7,-0.5,+0.2)

Sales: -5% vs 2012; -34% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 43% vs 38% vs 55% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -4% (-4,-4.7,-4.9,-3.1,-2.3,+0.4)

Sales: +3% vs 2012; -29% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 58% vs 51% vs 60% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -2.4% (-1.8,-0.4,+0.8,+1.4,+2.4,+2.9)

North Van
Sales: +36% vs 2012; -35% vs 2011
HPI $ YoY: -2.9% (-3.3,-2.6,-2.4,-2.9,-2.5,-3.7,+0.3)


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Jesse, your pics don’t show up on your website, last couple posts.


Poor jobs report!

Keep the 1000+ immigrants per day coming in. They will keep housing and rents high.

No need to worry about the locals, they have been brainwashed through public schooling.


“bullish July so far”

for 3 days. Sad statistician is sad.


“it can be argued the unprecedented stimulus effort helped keep a lot of people in their jobs and in their homes.”

This is correct, but it comes at the expense of a lot of other people. The government can distort markets and influence who wins and who loses. But people leveraging into this do not have fundamentals on their side. They are speculating that government intervention will be followed by even more distortion which will benefit them in exactly the same way as the previous group. And the costs are easily hidden by falling interest rates.

They have one playbook, and it may have run up into some resistance.


#66 “Bond yields cratering.”

Is this some kind of joke?


Be Glad For Your Fake Job

“it can be argued the unprecedented stimulus effort helped keep a lot of people in their jobs and in their homes.”


Get your fake jobs while they last because Bernanke’s our man. Keep printing those fake jobs we love so we can load up the mortgage by paying triple. Price is no object. Everybody’s doing it and it’s all insured anyway. Lalala, I can’t hear you… lalala….

Be Glad For Your Fake Job

In June, employment was virtually unchanged and the unemployment rate remained at 7.1%. In the first half of 2013, employment growth averaged 14,000 per month, slower than the average of 27,000 in the last six months of 2012.


A voice of reason

Funny… After two days in we were trending bearish and now three days in we’re trending bullish. Guess two or three days doesn’t really indicate any discernable trend. We will see how the next month/year/rest of decade plays out. I think I know where the smart money is on this one ;-/


No housing bubble in China for sure: http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/04/world/asia/china-jackson-hole-jiang/index.html. Good lord, $1 million for some of them?


“Stock Markets rocketing HIGHER in Asia and Europe.”

Wouldn’t it make more sense to be investing where markets are ‘rocketing higher’ rather than a place where housing is dropping the stock market is trending down?


In 2011:

04-Jul 148 309 47.9%
05-Jul 115 325 35.4%
06-Jul 166 275 60.4%
379 909

In 2012:
03-Jul 116 304 38.2%
04-Jul 165 324 50.9%
05-Jul 112 281 39.9%
393 909

In 2013:

02-Jul 150 291
03-Jul 99 287
04-Jul 154 239
403 817

Pretty bullish July so far.

Anonymous Dichotomy

Let’s all be called Anonymous. That’s right. Just ignore that first field. Don’t trouble yourself to type anything meaningful into that box.

Pope needs to make that field mandatory and reject the post if the field is filled with the word “Anonymous”.

Please geo-identify those “Anonymous” computers so they can be eliminated with a cruise missile.


“Bears will be Bears…”

Yes and fools will be fools.


And also,

Stock Markets rocketing HIGHER in Asia and Europe.

The major economies said “NO, WE AIN’T HIKING RATES ANYTIME SOON!”

Bond yields cratering.

—> hate to say it but told you so…..


Bears will be Bears…

…enjoy the next decade on this blog. I know it makes the collective bunch feel happy….like animals herded off a cliff…

It boggles the mind that you guys don’t see that detached homes will become less and less percentage of the total housing stock in Metro Vancouver over time. The detached home price has already detached itself from incomes. Right now, incomes should be compared to townhome prices. They are not relevant when it comes to detached homes.


“What is more significant than this is Potential THE GAME CHANGER IN INDIA.”

Yes except Indians for the most part are broke. The few rich ones in India aren’t leaving to live in Surrey. May as well stay in the slums of India.

#59 Harminder
Brian Ripley

Ham Solo #35 said “Maybe the bond sell-off of June was the catalyst (for a big housing correction amongst other things), maybe it wasn’t.”

I have updated my real estate charts with the June data http://www.chpc.biz/charts.html and have added a new chart focusing attention on the “real” 10 year yield: http://www.chpc.biz/real_10yr_chart.html

The steady rise of momentum in real rates looks to have triggered a selloff in the TSX cash market real estate index.

UBC in Crisis Mode

Hong Kong Builders Seen Slowing Home Sales to Control Prices


Builders including Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. (16) and Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd. (1) sold about 4,320 new units for HK$40 billion ($5.2 billion) in the first half, both the lowest since the second half of 2008, according to figures compiled by realtor Centaline. A total of 7,183 units were sold for HK$66 billion in the second half of 2012, Centaline said.

Developers are holding off sales after property transactions in the city plunged to a two-decade low in the second quarter in response to a doubling of stamp duties on buyers and sellers, and tightened regulations on marketing material of new apartments. Home prices have dropped 2 percent from a historic high in March, after having more than doubled since early 2009. … …




have you seen the Indian Rupee? Lost 35% since 2009 to the Loonie.


Post 51 said


Relaxed financial controls – does this mean more foreign investment in Vancouver in the future?

What is more significant than this is Potential THE GAME CHANGER IN INDIA. There are about 300,000 Indians here in Metro Vancouver. 5 years ago, they could get $50,000 out of India without any major taxes. It crept up to $200K recently but the taxes are high. NOW THERE IS A push to have reasonable tax rates on amounts up to $1 Million.

Have you checked what farmland goes for in and around small cities in the Punjab?? If this money is allowed to leave India, Panorama Ridge may just turn out to be the most expensive place in the lower mainland.

Downvote or upvote. It doesnt change the fact that this may happen.


18K party in time for the week-end
100 a day increase should put us easily over 19k before the end of the month.
Fingers crossed


New Listings 239
Price Changes 106
Sold Listings 154