June 2013: YOY sales up, prices down

June REBGV stats are out and compared to last year sales are up and prices are down.

On the bullish side month over month stats are seeing prices rise.

On the bearish side sales are 22.2% lower than the 10 year average for June.

VMD posted the following summary:

June 2011-2013 Greater Vancouver SFH Stats by Region
Richmond
Sales: +51% vs 2012; -27% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 48% vs 24% vs 48% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -5.5% (-8,-9.1,-8.4,-9,-6.3,-6.5,-4.2,-4) (prev months’ YoY % change)

Vancouver West
Sales: +42% vs 2012; -32% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 57% vs 31% vs 65% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -6.1% (-8,-8.5,-9.1,-9.2,-7.5,-5.5)

Vancouver East
Sales: +32% vs 2012; -22% vs 2011.
S/L Ratio: 55% vs 37% vs 73% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -2.2% (-2.8,-2.8,-2.6,-2.7,-0.5,+0.2)

Burnaby
Sales: -5% vs 2012; -34% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 43% vs 38% vs 55% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -4% (-4,-4.7,-4.9,-3.1,-2.3,+0.4)

Coquitlam
Sales: +3% vs 2012; -29% vs 2011
S/L Ratio: 58% vs 51% vs 60% (2011)
HPI $ YoY: -2.4% (-1.8,-0.4,+0.8,+1.4,+2.4,+2.9)

North Van
Sales: +36% vs 2012; -35% vs 2011
HPI $ YoY: -2.9% (-3.3,-2.6,-2.4,-2.9,-2.5,-3.7,+0.3)

 

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RFM
Guest
RFM

The VANCOUVER REALTOR HUNGER INDEX for June 2013 was 60.

Details and comparison data for the last 14 years at: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Vancouver-Realtor-Hunger-Index

Unbelievable Market
Guest
Unbelievable Market

WOW. Richmond sales up a staggering 51% year over year.

WOW!

Boy, we were so wrong. So if falling sales was a good thing for us, what does increasing sales mean? I’m worried about a declining inventory while sales pick up.

paulb
Member

New Listings 287
Price Changes 133
Sold Listings 99
TI:17874

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

has paul sold any houses to these poor bears laterly

George Soros
Guest
George Soros

Wow it looks like we will be having another 18K party soon. That was not much of a drop off.

Unbelievable Market
Guest
Unbelievable Market

George Soros above —> Dude, Fall is just around the corner. Inventory has peaked.

VHB
Member
VHB

Total days 22
Days elapsed so far 2
Weekends / holidays 1
Days missing 0
Days remaining 20
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales 129
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings 250
SALES
Sales so far 249
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2587
Projected month end total 2836
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 578
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 5007
Projected month end total 5585
Sell-list so far 43.1%
Projected month-end sell-list 50.8%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of July 3, 2013 17874
Current MoI at this sales pace 6.30

VMD
Member

@ #6
IMO too early to say inventory has “peaked”
If you look at Jesse’s Inventory graph, you will see that after the typical summer drop-off, inventory usually climbs to form a double-peak in September.

If interest rate rise or other factors come into play, we could see inventory peaking in September.

FWIW, first 2 days of July:
2013: 249 sales
2012: 281 sales

Aggregator
Guest
Aggregator

One thing I’d like to point out for anyone who receives CREA’s monthly reports.

Starting in February CREA added a new footnote under new listings that shows items marked with “‡” include member and non-member data. Quebec is the only province labeled. What this means is listings from MLS members (the boards) excludes listings from sites like comfree, property guys, FSBO, etc.

How significant is this? I’m not sure for Van, but in Toronto there’s quite a few listings with comfree, property guys and other FSBO sites. This site shows 71 FSBO sites for BC http://bc.unlistings.ca/ and by the looks of it, there’s quite a few listings there too.

Sneaky CREA thought nobody would notice. Pfft.

No Noise
Guest
No Noise

These latest June numbers are merely a dead-cat-bounce due to the Liberals undeserved re-election and the threat of increased mortgage rates. All those suckers who were on the fence, found reason enough to jump back in. When those higher rates can’t be avoided, and the beloved Liberals have zero effect, RE bleeding will continue slowly and steadily downward. And dont forget the biggest threat to Vancouver RE – China’s required massive debt deleveraging.

Loon
Guest
Loon

Thanks for the numbers Paul B.
Can someone with some authority define “sold”, ie is it when the deal is closed or the contract signed ? Please back it up with some facts if possible.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Loon, sales are booked in REBGV when subjects are removed, not closed, which can be weeks or months later.

Barb Rennie
Guest
Barb Rennie

Sold date is the date of contract. The subject(s) removal date(s) may be weeks or months later, so the sale may not show up until all subjects are removed and the sale information submitted to the REBGV, but the sale date still shows the date of the contract.

Bailing in BC
Guest
Bailing in BC

The BC foreclosures and bankruptcy graph and the Squamish data has been updated in the forum. Go check it out. If any of you have Squamish data I would love to add it to my spread sheet.

http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Squamish-Data?pid=3132#pid3132

Aggregator
Guest
Aggregator

@Bailing in BC

FYI, we’re in low season for foreclosures. The most active months are Dec-Jan. If Van sales follow trend, we may even see more foreclosures then sales next January. http://i.cubeupload.com/O2Pu8r.png

Bailing in BC
Guest

Any hypothesis as to why foreclosures peak Dec Jan?

Successful Realtor
Guest
Successful Realtor

to Anonymous #4

“has paul sold any houses to these poor bears laterly?”

No, only good, competent, and hard working realtors are able to successfully complete transaction, and collect
Big time commissions. Others reproduce and collect baby bonus checks. Thanks to the tax payers.
Paul is waiting for the BEARs and Renters To turn the market around. Or maybe he should apply for a job at a
Fast food restaurant. This is the advice repeatedly given by BEARS and renters to realtors when housing sales
Are down.

C.Junta
Guest
C.Junta

How about a little awareness campaign against any potential bailout of those who wanted to benefit from the RE madness but did not 100% succeed?

A quick front page sketch:
http://i41.tinypic.com/17fy0y.png

Please post your constructive criticism here.

Sensible
Guest
Sensible

Why are posts that make the most sense voted down here? Is this an entertainment blog only? Thx in advance.

George
Guest
George
In the Vancouver Sun: “While schools in Vancouver are losing about 600 students each year — and the number of students overall in B.C. public schools has dropped by about 10,000 in the past five years — there are some pockets of the Lower Mainland where schools are overflowing. An evaluation of Ministry of Education enrolment numbers has revealed that students are moving east to more affordable suburbs such as Coquitlam, Surrey and Langley. Surrey is the fastest growing district in Metro Vancouver; enrolment there has increased by 4,261 students in the past five years. Other B.C. hot spots include Coquitlam, with an increase of 1,673 students, and three districts on Vancouver Island: Saanich (1,084 students), Comox Valley (820) and Sooke (817). Enrolment in all-French public schools around B.C. also went up by 12 per cent (522 students). In comparison,… Read more »
George
Guest
George

In the Vancouver Sun:

“Condominiums remain the dominant property type in Metro Vancouver’s housing market, but their appeal as a purchase option appears to be on the wane among existing homeowners, according to a new survey from the Bank of Montreal.

The survey, conducted by the polling firm Pollara for BMO, found that one-third of prospective homebuyers looking to buy within the next five years in Canada’s major cities were considering condominiums as an option.

In Metro Vancouver, however, the percentage of potential homebuyers considering a condo purchase had declined to 28 per cent, according to the report, compared with the 33 per cent recorded by Pollara in last fall’s version of the survey.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/Metro+Vancouver+homeowners+ardour+condo+living+cools/8613205/story.html

Successful Realtor
Guest
Successful Realtor

To Sensible #19

Why are posts that make the most sense voted down here? Is this an entertainment blog only?

Because BEARS and renters want to force the housing market to collapse, and badly hurt realtors
such as PaulB. PaulB has 3 kids and not a successful realtor. Just click on his button to visit his website.
Not much activity by himself. Properties mentioned are other realtors effort.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“all-French public schools around B.C. also went up by 12 per cent”

Funny, the francophonie school in Vancouver – Anne-Hebert – has had trouble filling classrooms with francophone kids and have broadened their intake to include children with parents from former French colonies but without French language at home (a prior requirement), so if enrollment is increasing it’s likely outside the core.

Parents are choosing more land for raising children. The urbanists trying to push their “Vancouverist” religion onto others, claiming that healthy cities are those filled with children, are falling a bit short.

Aggregator
Guest
Aggregator
@Bailing in BC I’ve read it a few times from lawyers that deal with foreclosures and consumer proposals. It’s probably more due to the fact that those months are the least liquid of all, so banks foreclose on properties in arrears when times are slow. Speaking of consumer proposals: this will be one of many more stories alike when the market breaks. http://www.bankruptcy-canada.ca/consumer-proposals/2013/04/consumer-proposal-deposit-on-house.html Posted from: British Columbia Question: Hi, I understand I will have to offer more than what my creditors will receive if I filed for bankruptcy. I have a deposit for a pre-construction condo that will be completed 3 years later. The mortgage will start in 3 years when the building is complete and is not under my name, also the deposit was from my parents. The house deed WILL be under my name. Will this deposit be… Read more »
patriotz
Member

“How about a little awareness campaign against any potential bailout of those who wanted to benefit from the RE madness but did not 100% succeed?”

There isn’t going to be any bailout. Where is the money supposed to come from? If the politicians had the money, don’t you think they’d hand it out to someone who might garner some public sympathy (and deliver more votes) – e.g flood victims in Alberta?

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