BC, data, Open Topic

Lets talk about the weather

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123 Comments

Remember this next November when you’re bitching about the grey skies and rain.

Vancouver is wrapping up the sunniest month on record.

The only month on record this city has ever ever EVER had without rain.

It’s a beautiful thing, n’est-ce pa?

Assuming there is no rain on Wednesday, this July will also be first time on record a whole calendar month was completely dry in Vancouver.

Although a few showers have been noted on the North Shore today, none have reached down to the Vancouver International Airport weather station, where the record run is underway.

After that, the next record to shoot for is the longest dry spell. The record of 58 days was set in 1951.

So far this summer the city of rain has had no preciptation for 33 days in a row, Environment Canada confirmed on Tuesday morning, but there is rain in the forecast for the end of the week.

All this sunshine has got to help sales at open houses right?

Read the full article over at the CBC.

 

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Son of Ponzi

Think about this.
There are 220,000 people living in Richmond.
Which is in a flood-plane and earthquake zone.
No insurance would touch this with a 10 foot pole .
S

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b5baxter

“…. Paris. When have those cities had a real estate crash? Never….”

Really what about the 1340s, or the 1420s, or the 1620s or the 1930s and 1940s or 1995?

http://www.cgedd.fr/auguste-hollande-prix-immobilier-paris.pdf
http://www.cgedd.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/doc/house-price-france-1840-2001_cle5a8666.doc

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Son of Ponzi

Softy,
You Are right about the dismal state of RE in Richmond.
Friends of ours just sold and are happy renters.
Buyers are realizing that you can’t get earthquake and flood insurance in Richmond.

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Softy

And just so there is no mistake, as my name suggests, I am here to say that there will be a soft landing. There already is a soft landing.

You can wait and wait but there will be no benefit to waiting. There is no rational basis to say that Vancouver real estate will crash. It will be flat. At worse it will be like 1990’s flat.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

>You would have “made” 5.1% not 50%.

so, it’s an inflation adjusted 1% return then? i think that answers your question “who’s making money”.

even you’re contrived example proves you wrong.

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Softy

“Another wrong statement. 5 Years ago was 2008. Houses have skyrocketed since then. Only condos have been flat.”

Please define skyrocket?”

Just look at the graph. Below is the average price graph, because its easy to find. 2008 average price was around 900K. Today the average price is $1,144,952. That’s a 27% increase over five years. That is a big increase.

http://www.yattermatters.com/2013/08/vancouver-average-price-measures-twice/#more-35218

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Bally

“Realtors are too busy counting their money after a red hot July for sales.”

Haha. Average is the new red hot.

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Wacky Math

@@Who is making money? #110

“so, assuming i put down a 20% deposit $225,000 i would have made a 50% return over 2 years and gotten a nice place to live?”

Thank you for showing me who is still buying – People whose abacus is missing a bead.

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Who is making money?

“so, assuming i put down a 20% deposit $225,000 i would have made a 50% return over 2 years and gotten a nice place to live?”

Well prices are up $11,600 on your $225,000 over 2 yrs. Even using this stupid math (not including any expenses see 112)

You would have “made” 5.1% not 50%.

You must be a Realtor?

People as stupid as you should not be allowed to post.

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Who is making money?

Actually Softy this was your point

“houses have been a lousy investment for the past 5 years”

Another wrong statement. 5 Years ago was 2008. Houses have skyrocketed since then. Only condos have been flat.”

Please define skyrocket?

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Yalie

so, assuming i put down a 20% deposit $225,000 i would have made a 50% return over 2 years and gotten a nice place to live?

Nice “math”. Who are you, Brad Lamb? Maybe if you lived in Bradlambistan you’d get a “50% return”, but here in the real world, you’d have a number of costs you’ve conveniently excluded, like PTT (20k), interest (110k), property tax & maintenance (15k), opportunity cost on your 225k (70k assuming you put it in the S&P) plus if you sell there’s that pesky commission (30k).

So your “50% return” is actually a loss of around 130k over that time.

But you got a nice place to live. So there’s that.

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Softy

You have proven my point: it’s a soft landing. Nothing will bring prices down. This notional loss due to inflation is the best the bears have to hope for.

This means that anyone who bought Vancouver real estate made a good investment. It’s not going to crash 50% like the stock market does every 5-6 years of late.

So I ask you, “what are you waiting for”?

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@Who is making money?

so, assuming i put down a 20% deposit $225,000 i would have made a 50% return over 2 years and gotten a nice place to live?

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Who is making money?

Hey Softy, Chew on this dumbass:

From Yatters site:

DETACHED Avg Price
July 2011 $1,133,357
July 2013 $1,144,952
2yr return +0.97%
2 yr return with inflation -4.03%

So I ask again, who is making money?

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emmi

question, the crisis will come from somewhere unexpected

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Softy

High prices = high prices
Will never crash = will never crash

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Softy

I thought I’d help you bears make some bearish points because you are not very good at it yourselves. Unlike you, I have an open mind and am receptive to contrary opinions that are well thought out.

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Softy

From Richmond realtor James Wong: How much lower? So far, after 2 years of lackluster demand, Richmond detached home prices remained at lofty level. The drop in median price in Richmond according to data from the real estate board of Greater Vancouver registered a mere 5% decline. But, in Seafair neighborhood, older homes with lot sizes between 7,000 to 8,000 sq ft had dropped in price from $1.0 million in 2011 to the current level around $850,000 – a drop of 15%. Some recent sales showed that sellers were taking offers below $800,000. Tracking the rise in detached home prices in Richmond By the middle of 2005, Richmond’s detached home median price surpassed $500,000 and reach the peak in 2011. In 3 short years, Richmond’s detached homes gained 49% from $504,000 in 2005 to $749,000 by mid 2008. The credit… Read more »

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Best place on meth

“Face it bears, as much as you deny it, Vancouver is now in the league of London and Paris.”

Now THAT is some world class trolling.

Champs-Élysées = Robson Street
Eiffel Tower = Harbour Centre
Louvre = Vancouver Art Gallery
Notre Dame = Christ Church Cathedral
Arc de Triomphe = this thing http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4069/4617183873_34a9140c73.jpg

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Softy

Realtors are too busy counting their money after a red hot July for sales.

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Bally

Must be a slow sales day given the number of REALTORS hanging out here today.

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paulb

New Listings 233
Price Changes 83
Sold Listings 105
TI:17441

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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Softy

Face it bears, as much as you deny it, Vancouver is now in the league of London and Paris. When have those cities had a real estate crash? Never. When will have Vancouver have a real estate crash? Never.

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Softy

“As the US and Canadian economies continue to recover does anyone really think that mortgage rates will not be on the rise? And when that happens does anyone really think that many homeowners and speculators are not in really big financial trouble. Cheap money is coming to an end and time is on the side of the bears.”

Pie in the sky. Hope and dreams. Great depression II did not stop Vancouver real estate. Tighter mortgage lending did not stop Vancouver real estate. Lower amortization periods did not stop Vancouver real estate. Tighter CMHC oversight did not stop vancouver real estate. The CMHC cap did not stop vancouver real estate.

I think you get the idea. Higher mortgage rates will not stop vancouver real estate.

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question for the bears

@Dan

It seems as though the bears are more worried about homeowners’s finances than the homeowners themselves.

Anyone who has bought recently won’t have to renew for 5-10 years, at which point they’ll have plenty of equity/higher salaries/lower payments to offset potentially higher rates.

Either way, according to statscan, some 45% of homeowners don’t have a mortgage, while those that do, have lots of equity.

Where is the crisis?

This isn’t rocket science.

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