Canada, CMHC, debt, economy, opinion, predictions

The popping of the Canadian bubble

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53 Comments

Another day another Canadian housing bubble story,  this one in the star.

Some of the themes may be familiar to you.

High debt loads,  out of whack ratios for debt to income and rent to buy variables.  Government guarantees.

Etc.

Housing in Canada is unaffordable. International experts are unequivocal in their concern, and Canadian lawmakers are taking measures to deflate slowly rather than crash. Ironically, only Canadian homebuyers seem to think the market is sustainable. Sale prices are still rising. So when does it all start to unwind? Right about now.

Since the Great Recession, the Canadian economic model has basked in international reverence for its conservative banks and rich commodity sector. So when Wall Street rumblings about a Canadian housing bubble started becoming louder about a year ago, as a card-carrying Canadian, I took notice.

Read the full article here.

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ブルガリ 時計

How will i see exactly who present links from a sites to help myspace? ブルガリ 時計 http://www.bvlgarisshop.asia/

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Devore

“So what happens when all those super low rate holds are used up Mr. Economist?”

Probably back to blaming summer weather conditions during summer.

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emmi

@31, any of them empty? That’s a good secondary measure.

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Son of Ponzi

Frank #48
It’s a Ponzi scheme.

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Harvey

oh my god 18k. we are are crashing.

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frank

What are HAM up to?

V1017219

Mentioned by a poster on Fish’s blog

Sold in April for $1.85 looks like a HAM buyer.

Relisted almost immediately and another (probable) HAM looks to have bought it ASAP for $1.9 Million

No real profit in it for the first HAM buyer. Wonder what’s up?

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Best place on meth

Ok look, 18K inventory is back.

Never saw that coming.

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bestplaceonearth

come on people; only a real realtor can change your live. Act now! only a realtor can get you out of your wet and smelly mama’s basement.

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Son of Ponzi

Uptick in Sales.
Where, When?

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It's simple

bull’s r shitt’n their pants
2. mortgages r almost done

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It's simple

spoke to soon, paul’s back

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Who is making money?

38,39, 40

Please see 28

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Who is making money?

HAPPY 18K DAY!

I was worried cause some Bull said yesterday we would not see it again this year!

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bearsheadinthesand

paulb
try to use your time to sell a few houses, it would make your wife happy! you will not earn any business from the people here! need to buy more diapers man; otherwise, east coast is calling again!

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It's simple

no paul b today?

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bearsheadinthesand

ok stupid bears, are we crashed yet?
Some of the stupid bears might even argue, vancouver did not have flood, so the RE market would crash…hahaha!
by the way, who are going to protest at the restaurant in DTES tonight? but please, dont steal their signs, stupid bears.

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paulb

New Listings 203
Price Changes 95
Sold Listings 106
TI:18041

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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n.y.k.

I just read that PIMCO article. So this guy Ed Devlin says he doesn’t anticipate “any sort of recession in Canada, and certainly not a housing crash.”

Great! No recession, no crash.

Then he predicts this: “Our secular view is that housing in Canada is overvalued and due for a correction. We believe a 10%–20% real decline in national housing prices over a five-year period is very realistic, with much sharper corrections in some local ‘hot’ markets such as Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal.”

So bears are wrong and there will be no crash, just 10-20% off nationwide and much sharper corrections than that in all the biggest cities where 1/3 of the country lives and invests significantly more money in real estate.

I dunno, kinda sounds crashy to me.

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commercial foreclosure

July 11, 2013 commercial property foreclosure

http://www.timescolonist.com/court-orders-sale-of-former-traveller-s-inn-properties-in-victoria-1.520520

not as impressive as the 18 million Duncan mall and place, but still, 5.39 million is nothing to sneeze at.

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Some Guy

@22 “I wonder who voted it down – Carney, F or Kinsley?”

I voted it down (and no I’m not one of the folks listed above 🙂

I’m not a huge fan of the CMHC, especially the RE-pumper version we’ve seen in the past couple of decades, but putting politicians in jail for bad (as opposed to corrupt or illegal) decisions is a bad precedent, in my opinion.

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commercial foreclosure

http://www.cowichannewsleader.com/news/215711661.html

“July 8 saw Duncan court foreclosure action, concerning TCC (Trez) Mortgage Holdings Inc.’s $18-million mortgage to a group of borrowing firms.”

“Those borrowers now have a six-month redemption period, expiring Jan. 10, 2014, for repaying $17.148 million.”

GOOD LUCK.. in a downturn, commercial property when it croaks, takes three turnovers before the Price Is Right

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mosesupposes

The apparent uptick in sales has had no impact on the areas that I’ve been monitoring (basically East Van). I’ve seen about 10 non-crack shacks listed in the last few months and I don’t think a single one of them has sold yet. They’re all priced too high and they’re all sitting there gathering dust.

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Dan

You know, it really doesn’t matter how long it takes for house prices to drop back to the sustainable Case-Schiller formulas where house prices are in reasonable relation to household income or rents. Whether there is a crash and we get there in six months, or whether it is drawn out over three years. We will end up in the same spot. Only for some people it will be like a slow and painful death. Either people can see the writing on the wall or chose to bury their heads in the sand. I mean, didn’t the Governor of the Bank of Canada today advise that the next interest rate move will be a hike? Obviously. Take heed of the news or be prepared for the consequences.

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Son of Ponzi

Who is making money?
The developers and the banks, The foreclosure and collection agencies.

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