Oops *thrice

I summarized August 2012 sales here
http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-August-2012-Stats

Daily sales broke 100 twice last August.

“the government can make the real estate market do anything they want it to do”

The irony of central planning from a government seemingly obsessed with the superiority of free and open markets.

I’m sure they know what they’re doing.

Did you hear that guys?

According to Shifty, the government can make the real estate market do anything they want it to do.

They can make it go up, they can make it go down or they can make it lie perfectly flat.

If only they had these magic powers back in the 80’s.

@Softly “Changes like this are just a drop in the bucket. They are calculated to keep the market flat.”

A single national policy will keep market flat? Which market? When? How long? Home owners on the island will take exception to your assertion.

@jesse “Rising rates produce more headwinds than just an increased monthly payment.” Of course that is the risk in big loan-small interest vs small loan-big interest when you’re just looking at the monthly payment, as most mortgaged buyers are. The “common wisdom” for taking on massive debt at low rates was that the monthly would be the same as smaller debt at higher rates. Two problems with that: 1. Smaller debt is easier to manage and retire. This is why, regardless of interest rates, up to 3x income is the rough guideline. It is not just meaningless numbers after all. 2. We don’t have 30 year mortgages in Canada. At the end of your term you have to renew at prevailing rates. In fact, you might find yourself at the mercy of your lender if you do not have sufficient… Read more »

PS Blast, did you see the next comment from that March 2008 thread?

crabman Says:
March 31st, 2008 at 12:02 pm
——————————————————————
“Also, the prediction for Seattle and Portland are -16% and -15% for prices from now until the bottom. This would result in Seattle and Portland being about 1/2 the income multiple of Vancouver.

Seattle – $317,100 – 4.8x
Portland – $247,000 – 4.2x”
——————————————————————

Here are the actual numbers from the 2012 Demographia survey (Seattle and Portland both bottomed last year):

Vancouver – $621,300 – 9.5x
Seattle – $310,000 – 4.8x
Portland – $239,200 – 4.3x

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

@Blast – Yes, I was convinced the bubble was bursting in March 2008. For a while, it looked like I timed it perfectly – prices fell 15% in the year after that comment was made. Then Ottawa and the local media pulled out all the stops and it worked.

Since then, prices are up about 9%. So real estate in this city is still just as overvalued as it was then – about 50%. The reckoning has only been delayed, not cancelled.

@softy said “I never talk about condos. I would never buy one. I only talk about houses.”

Have you ever seen the URL in your browser window?

” They have made around 6 adjustments to mortgage lending over the past two years”

And interest rates have fallen 100bps over that time. Please try harder.