FFFA! Richmond, Detroit, Builders, Stats, OV losses

Hey! You made it to the end of another work week, and this time the reward is a long weekend!

Let’s do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

July 2013 daily stats
The gradual declines of Richmond
How much will you pay for the OV?
We build condos, its what we do
Chinese buyers move to Detroit
Housing will cost our economy
Recession not so bad
Stumbling in Strathcona
July 2013 on the Sunshine Coast

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent long weekend!

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@shifty

Loyal Cadre, surely our masterful engineers in the politburo have taught the puppets in Ottawa well!

push button a, pull lever b, keep 10 mistresses in malibu and the wife and kids in vancouver

Vmd@work


And not once did new listings break 260, let alone 300 last August. ; )

jesse

Oops *thrice

jesse

I summarized August 2012 sales here
http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-August-2012-Stats

Daily sales broke 100 twice last August.

jesse

“the government can make the real estate market do anything they want it to do”

The irony of central planning from a government seemingly obsessed with the superiority of free and open markets.

I’m sure they know what they’re doing.

Son of Ponzi

Let’s have a closer look at P.B’s recent numbers.
New listing are outpacing sales about 2:1 (301/118).
Price reductions are 137, easily surpassing sales (118).
Which tells me that sellers are panicking.

@crabman

Have you seen the URL in your browser window? This isn’t Seattle or Portland condo info deary.

Best place on meth

Did you hear that guys?

According to Shifty, the government can make the real estate market do anything they want it to do.

They can make it go up, they can make it go down or they can make it lie perfectly flat.

If only they had these magic powers back in the 80’s.

Softy

“Even if there were no CMHC, and even if interest rates were at 10%”

You realize that you have unwittingly admitted to yourself that it would take these unlikely events to sink the housing market.

Devore

@Softly “Changes like this are just a drop in the bucket. They are calculated to keep the market flat.”

A single national policy will keep market flat? Which market? When? How long? Home owners on the island will take exception to your assertion.

Devore

@jesse “Rising rates produce more headwinds than just an increased monthly payment.” Of course that is the risk in big loan-small interest vs small loan-big interest when you’re just looking at the monthly payment, as most mortgaged buyers are. The “common wisdom” for taking on massive debt at low rates was that the monthly would be the same as smaller debt at higher rates. Two problems with that: 1. Smaller debt is easier to manage and retire. This is why, regardless of interest rates, up to 3x income is the rough guideline. It is not just meaningless numbers after all. 2. We don’t have 30 year mortgages in Canada. At the end of your term you have to renew at prevailing rates. In fact, you might find yourself at the mercy of your lender if you do not have sufficient… Read more »

crabman

PS Blast, did you see the next comment from that March 2008 thread?

crabman Says:
March 31st, 2008 at 12:02 pm
——————————————————————
“Also, the prediction for Seattle and Portland are -16% and -15% for prices from now until the bottom. This would result in Seattle and Portland being about 1/2 the income multiple of Vancouver.

Seattle – $317,100 – 4.8x
Portland – $247,000 – 4.2x”
——————————————————————

Here are the actual numbers from the 2012 Demographia survey (Seattle and Portland both bottomed last year):

Vancouver – $621,300 – 9.5x
Seattle – $310,000 – 4.8x
Portland – $239,200 – 4.3x

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

crabman

@Blast – Yes, I was convinced the bubble was bursting in March 2008. For a while, it looked like I timed it perfectly – prices fell 15% in the year after that comment was made. Then Ottawa and the local media pulled out all the stops and it worked.

Since then, prices are up about 9%. So real estate in this city is still just as overvalued as it was then – about 50%. The reckoning has only been delayed, not cancelled.

Phil

B from the P,

Gold, dot.com, China stocks, Vancouver homes…they eventually all turn out the same 🙂

http://thesuccessfulboomer.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/vancouver-as-one-of-9-trendy-bubbles1.jpg

Blast From The Past

it’s been 5 years. what does the Van RE price chart look like crabman? are we down 40% from the peak like the Shanghai stock market. Ouch!

crabman Says:
March 31st, 2008 at 11:59 am 73

Here’s a graph of Shanghai stock market. Ouch! This is what Van RE price chart will look like in 3-5 years:

http://bp2.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/R_EoldDCIfI/AAAAAAAABx4/dIZD7rMOfsY/s1600-h/Shanghai.jpg

lolzlolzlolz

in 2035 when minimum wage is $30 an hour and the average detached house in Vancouver costs 2.5M, be sure to remember that prices will still eventually return to pre-bubble pricing and tremendous vulching will be had for opportunistic bears..

what goes up must come down. it’s not differnet here. Just ask Miami

lolz

crabman

@softy said “I never talk about condos. I would never buy one. I only talk about houses.”

Have you ever seen the URL in your browser window?

lolzlolzlolz

Conclusion

Vancouver’s housing must be 3X overvalued

What comes up must come down. The bulls are in denial.

lolzlolzlolz

Fact

Hamilton Ontario is 3X cheaper (300K versus 1000K)

lolzlolzlolz

Fact

Hamilton Ontario has higher salaries than Vancouver

lolzlolzlolz

Any day now all the baby boomers will die and people will flood out of Vancouver and prices will revert to their historical averages, not before they overshoot and houses will be 50% off.

All the bears will line up and vulch!

Vancouver is not different, just ask the Americans. What goes up must come down. Bulls are in the “denial stage”

lolzlolzlolz

It’s a fact housing is in a bubble, since in 1965 the average price of a detached house in Vancouver was $12,000 and now it’s $1,000,000

That’s a 8,300% increase! Hear that bulls? 8,300% over 48 years!

It’s not different this time. What goes up must come down. The bulls are in the “denial stage” – it’s not different here. Just ask the Irish.

lolz

Son of Ponzi

You gotta talk condos.
Because many SFH owners “owe” also condos as an investment, financed through an second mtg or HELOC on the SFH.

jesse

” They have made around 6 adjustments to mortgage lending over the past two years”

And interest rates have fallen 100bps over that time. Please try harder.