FFFA! Richmond, Detroit, Builders, Stats, OV losses

Hey! You made it to the end of another work week, and this time the reward is a long weekend!

Let’s do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

July 2013 daily stats
The gradual declines of Richmond
How much will you pay for the OV?
We build condos, its what we do
Chinese buyers move to Detroit
Housing will cost our economy
Recession not so bad
Stumbling in Strathcona
July 2013 on the Sunshine Coast

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent long weekend!

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jesse
Member

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/08/01/bc-hootsuite-funding.html

Hootsuite gets $165mill in funding. They’re looking for “A level” engineers. Shouldn’t be a problem. Never is. Ever.

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

Detroit has a better economy than vancouver….friendlier people too!!

Vancouver will never have the NBA or MLB because its a bush league town with no economy

frank
Guest
frank

“City of Vancouver taxpayers facing upwards of $300-million loss on Olympic Village: Expert”

Some developers and speculators and insiders made a killing off the Olympics and all the big contracts that were awarded. ‘It was their time to shine”

Unfortunately it was the tax-payer that got killed.

Who's making money?
Guest
Who's making money?

According to Yatters site

2000 average detached price $400,000
2013 average detached price $1,144,952

Gain of 286%
Assuming 20% down-payment in 2000 gain of 1431% on down payment
Inflation over the past 13 years – who the fuck cares

Again I ask, who’s making money?

AnonNoMore
Guest
AnonNoMore

Who is making money?

Presumably anyone who just sold a house they bought 13 years ago.

No one is suggesting that selling an overvalued asset is a bad idea, it’s the idea of buying now that’s a bad one.

bubbly
Member
bubbly

@jesse: There is a shortage of good engineers in Vancouver and the few top engineers that may be available will not be attracted to HS, because the company pays relatively low salaries even for Vancouver standards.

George
Guest
George

From the Vancouver Sun:

July’s record sunshine didn’t hurt home sales in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s region. In fact July was the hottest real estate month of the year so far, the board says.

Sales reached 2,946 in July, the board reports. That’s a 40.4 per cent increase compared to the 2,098 sales recorded in July 2012, and an 11.5 per cent increase compared to the 2,642 sales in June 2013.

Those numbers make July 2013 the highest selling July since 2009, the board says.

REBGV president Sandra Wyant said in a news release this morning: “Demand has strengthened in our market in the last few months, which can, in part, be attributed to pent-up demand from the slowdown in sales activity we saw at the end of last year.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/July+hottest+month+home+sales+Vancouver/8741722/story.html

RFM
Guest
RFM

The VANCOUVER REALTOR HUNGER INDEX for July 2013 was 55.

Details and comparison data for 15 years at: http://vancouverpeak.com/Thread-Vancouver-Realtor-Hunger-Index

New; Improved! Now with monthly and yearly averages.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“Demand has strengthened in our market in the last few months, which can, in part, be attributed to pent-up demand from the slowdown in sales activity we saw at the end of last year.”

No, demand has picked up due to record low rate holds being exercised before they expire.

Let’s revisit Sandra’s theory in September, shall we?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Stats package is here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/157672797/REBGV-Stats-Package-July-2013-Mike-Stewart

July prices were up 0.0% from June.

Spring bounce over. Summer/fall/winter doldrums begin.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

According to my wife, who reads the Chinese newspapers, the Chinese buyers are shunning Richmond and moving to South Surrey.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Son of Ponzi

Are they moving there by helicopter or by high speed through the tunnel?

Skook
Member
Skook
Some of you will know that I have posted about some RE developments in Sechelt in the VanPeak forum. One of those is the ‘Watermark at Sechelt’ – an expensive condo complex that grabbed the last open waterfront land in the heart of the town. The complex will have two 6-storey buildings each with 52 units and the most expensive of those units are the ten in each building that directly face the water. Those ten units in Phase 1 (5665 Teredo) sold out back in 2011 when presales commenced. If you bought your unit outright between April 1 – June 30, 2011, you received a 5% discount. The first “investor” flip was listed yesterday. It is #401 – 5665 Teredo St – the building that I think should be move in ready this month. So, that unit was purchased… Read more »
paulb
Member
Active Member

Stats are out: http://www.paulboenisch.com/REBGVStats.ubr

Decent July overall.

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley

A little removed from our usual area of interest but can someone in the know tell me what 579 Lowry’s Rd in French Creek/ Parksville v9p2r8 recently sold for?

Gratzi

Turkey
Guest
Turkey

@RFM,

I’m a little hesitant to treat this data series too seriously, since it’s pretty synthetic. I’ve posted a plot at vancouverpeak.com anyway. Broadly speaking, there’s a clear split between “bad” years (2008, 2012) and “good” years (2003, 2005). Apart from this month, 2013 was a distinctly bad year.

As BPOM said, we’ll have to see what happens when the rate-increase bolus has passed through this colon of a market.

VanRant
Member
VanRant

Hey Best Place on Meth; your prediction of sale will not go over 3000 for 2013 remains in tact. 2,946 sales on the Multiple Listing Service®.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@VanRant

WOOOOO!!!!

sillybear
Guest
sillybear

what, no crash? back to mama’s dark wet basement.

Kratos
Guest
Kratos

@Skook, first of all, compounded annually, its 6.47%, not 6.2%.

Second of all you also conveniently forgot all the carrying costs (taxes, PTT, realtor fees, lawyer fees, etc.).

Third, that is a horrible return when you include everything. The S&P 500 has been up over 50% (depending on when you bought in 2011) since that period, not including re-invested dividends.

Sorry, but I put my money where my mouth is. I put about 15K into the market every month since before the financial crisis and stuck to my guns. I’ve made out quite nicely and can retire by age 40.

As for my 1.3 million dollar home I bought in 2010 in Vancouver west? The value of the house hasn’t changed much since I bought it.

Now you tell me what is the better investment.

Aggregator
Guest
Aggregator

TREB GTA dollar volume posted a 21% y/y gain trending with REBGV at 60% y/y in July. This implies July’s unexpected surge is macro as opposed to locality.

Although it’s not clear what the catalyst may have been, rising mortgage rates is certainly an impetus factor that may have moved those waiting on the sidelines to act now.

If that’s the case, this was no trend reversal.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Aggregator,
Completely agree with your conclusion.
Vancouver and Toronto RE rarely move in tandem, therefore the buyers rushing to redeem their rate holds are the explanation for the increase in sales in July.
And, as BPOE mentioned, this will soon come to an end, and the downward trend in sales and prices will continue.

Who's making money?
Guest
Who's making money?

“2000 average detached price $400,000
2013 average detached price $1,144,952

Gain of 286%”

It was a great time to buy. How many people here bought then?

Thank you for making the point that we are in a bubble and its a terrible time to buy.

Kratos
Guest
Kratos
@whos making money That’s still not a great investment. Even in the best of times (the last 13 years being the best of times), Vancouver real estate still only produced a 8.4% average annual compounded rate of return. This is not even including all the carrying costs (taxes, maintenance, etc.). Compare this to the S&P500 index, where over a much longer term (from the 1920s to now), the average annual compounded rate of return is 9.6%. And I don’t have to worry about the headaches of maintenance, paying taxes, etc. (I’ll give you the fact that had you bought into the stock market at the peak in 2000, it would’ve taken you a decade to break even but nobody, at least nobody who’s smart, would just dump all their money into stocks at once… it’s called dollar cost averaging and… Read more »
Kratos
Guest
Kratos

Sorry I didn’t mean to say not paying taxes (yes there are capital gains tax to be paid and taxes on dividends but you also pay this for investment properties). I meant to say, not paying property taxes yearly, not paying maintenance or condo fees. Not paying realtor fees, PTT, lawyer fees, etc. I also don’t have to deal with squatters or tenants who destroy your property or call you in the middle of the night

space889
Member
space889

The Richmond assessment was actual quite good in my view. Pretty much just stick to the facts and facts only.

@ Kratos – you put $15K a month into the market?? That means you must be making $300K/year? Not many people make that much $$.

Kratos
Guest
Kratos

I’m a doctor. I invest mostly inside my corporation with the occasional RRSP contribution from me that is matched by my employer. (Of course my partner also works but we were not married at the time)

But yeah, I can afford a 3 million dollar home, and had I not bought could’ve had a million dollar dp right now. I would not touch real estate in Vancouver with a ten foot pole though. My purchase in 2010-I regret immensely. I would’ve been a lot more ahead had I bought a smaller condo to live in or bought a cheaper house or better yet, continued to rent.

Take it from me, I bought into the craze in 2009-2010 before I discovered the existence of these forums. Real estate is a lousy investment right now. Rent, and save up your dp.

Kratos
Guest
Kratos

Sorry not my employer; the BCMA

Aggregator
Guest
Aggregator
jesse
Member

@bubbly: ” the few top engineers that may be available will not be attracted to HS”

My experience has been that companies, once into the hundreds of employees, have trouble growing workforce to meet their growth targets if set too aggressively.

I’ve opined a few times about applicants not only for job openings but also for rental suites: where do the people I summarily reject end up, anyways?

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