FFFA! Slump, no bubble, price drops, etc.

Well, well, well.

Looks like it’s that time of the week again!

Friday Free-for-all time!

Yep, It’s Friday and that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Van prices fall for 13th month in row
SunLife: expect 10 – 15% drop ‘over time’
Vancouver Peak community guidlines
New forum reputation system
West side spec houses
Richer? Poorer? Make up your mind!
Whats up with the banks?
A debt averse home hunter?
A housing slump in India

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Clockbike
Member
Clockbike

Tax Sale Notice was just given in my community newspaper. This one caught my eye:

“Block S, Plan VAP12695, DL 4261 008-814-121 38261 CLEVELAND AVE”

Which is registered as RE/MAX SEA TO SKY REAL ESTATE

patriotz
Member

UK property surveyors urge BoE to cap house price growth

British property surveyors called on the Bank of England to limit the rise in house price, joining a chorus of concern about the risk of a new boom-bust cycle in the country’s housing market.

The proposal by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors – an unusual one from an industry group that typically benefits from rising prices – is for the central bank to take measures to slow mortgage lending if house price growth exceeds 5 percent a year.

Wow, looks like someone got the message from Ireland. The final outcome won’t be quite the same though, as the UK has its own currency which will likely tank even more against the Euro – which I think is the BoE’s plan in the first place.

JBL
Guest
JBL

Latest total government (federal, provincial, and municipal), business, and household debt statistics for Canada (to the end of June 2013)

http://stateofthecanadiannation.blogspot.ca/2013/09/latest-total-government-federal_13.html

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

Remember when bears thought that prices would collapse under their own weight?

Now they expect prices to go down as rates creep up. News flash bears: you are no longer describing a bubble. The bubble theory of Van RE is dead.

patriotz
Member

@4:

Investors are prepared to buy houses they will rent out at a loss, just because they think prices will keep rising—the very definition of a financial bubble.

http://www.economist.com/node/4079027

True in Vancouver? Yes or no?

Softy
Guest
Softy

“True in Vancouver? Yes or no?”

No. Houses are bought mostly to live in or to launder black money or to house foreign students while they get a free education, or to house local kids because rich boomer parents have been burned too much by the stock market so they figure, “why not put some money in a condo – at least junior can live there”.

I’ve been to lots of open houses in Vancouver West over the last two months. Half are on sale by old people who have already downsized and the houses are now vacant. The other half are vacant because the chinese people who own the house moved back to china after the kids finished school.

Go to open houses in Vancouver west and I expect that any of you will observe the same thing.

registered
Member
registered

@4 “Remember when bears thought that prices would collapse under their own weight?”

I always thought prices would collapse when the federal government reversed the policies instituted to juice the market. That appears to be happening.

Softy
Guest
Softy

Another very popular reason to buy houses in Vancouver is to redevelop the land for higher density.

Softy
Guest
Softy

“True in Vancouver? Yes or no?”

Except it has not resulted in a crash. Bears always say that bubbles crash 100% of the time. That means there was no bubble in Vancouver.

It’s a soft landing.

Softy
Guest
Softy

By the way, do you have any data to support the idea that this is happening to a large extent in Vancouver?

“Investors are prepared to buy houses they will rent out at a loss, just because they think prices will keep rising—the very definition of a financial bubble.”

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

>Investors are prepared to buy houses they will rent out at a loss, just because they think prices will keep rising—the very definition of a financial bubble.

in other words, investors expect a return on their investment. yes, patriotz, that is the definition of the world investor. more tautologies, more ‘bear speak’, more ‘bear logic’.

to the rest of the bears, if you want to be an astute financial analyst like patriotz read The Economist. it’s the magazine that’s written by a bunch of no-name interns from oxford. they are so proud of their writing they don’t even put their names on their articles.

patriotz, your record speaks for it’s self.

VanRant
Member
VanRant

Not even 9 and Softy and Bull! Bull! Bull! have posted 6 comments (out of 11) so far. Real Estate must be slowing.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

at least Madashell can count, that puts them miles ahead of most of the wannabe analysts on this blog.

hey, Madashell, since you’re so good at counting, can you tell me how many months in a row we’ve had month over month price increases?

people like fixieguy still think that there is a crash going on. maybe you can be a dear and set him straight.

softly
Guest
softly

i do love the spam i do

VanRant
Member
VanRant

@ Bull! Bull! Bull!

I do have a live. Why don’t you get one.

Many Franks
Member
Active Member
On the debt front… Congratulations everybody! Canadians’ household debt climbs with rising mortgage costs: Statistics Canada said Friday the ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income increased to a new high of 163.4 per cent in the second quarter compared with 162.1 per cent in the first three months of the year. That means Canadians owe just over $1.63 for every $1 in disposable income they earn in a year. On housing: Tighter mortgage rules implemented a year ago by Ottawa in an attempt to cool the market led to a downturn in number of house sales, yet house prices continued to rise. …except in Vancouver. The higher value of homes helped push up household net worth — it rose 0.7 per cent in the second quarter, led by a 1.6 per cent gain in the value of… Read more »
Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

Canadian debt to disposable income ratio reaches new all time high.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/09/13/business-household-debt.html

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

Sept 11 – Sept 13

New Foreclosure Cases:

-Vancouver: 17
-Nanaimo: 6
-Kelowna: 3
-Chilliwack: 2
-Victoria: 1
-Other BC: 10

“Countrywide Cup” Foreclosure Lenders League Table

-TD Bank: 11
-Street Capital Mortgage Corp: 5
-First National Financial: 3
-HSBC: 3
-Royal Bank: 3
-Canadian Western Trust: 2
-Prospera CU: 2
-CIBC: 1
-BNS: 1
-Other: 8

Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

Holy crap, the median family income in Metro Vancouver is around $6,700.

http://www.news1130.com/2013/09/13/incomes-not-just-real-estate-prices-cause-housing-unaffordability-report/

We really have turned into China.

dyugle
Guest
dyugle
Softy thinks that housing crashes take less than 6 months to happen but in reality they take 3 years and the first year always looks like a soft landing. Even the second year is not very exciting. The big drops start in the third year and at the end of the third year it is obvious to everyone. Year one credit curtailment and sales drop. Year two building slump and layoffs mount. Year three E.I. runs out and forces sales bring down the market. Of course a serious credit expansion can stop the process if it happens before the psychology of the market breaks. However, the government seems determined to break the market psychology so I do not expect them to ride to the rescue until it is too late; especially since the Realtor’s keep painting a rosy picture requiring… Read more »
jesse
Member

” is around $6,700″
Can’t tell if bad typing from News1130
Or BC Business council didn’t validate their data

Bailing in BC
Member

I believe that this is bad punctuation. What they said was

“Metro Vancouver is around $6,700, behind the average for all Canadian cities.”

The comma after $6,700 should not be there.

They mean that the median family income is $6,700 less that the Canadian average

Clockbike #1 I was speaking with my pet realtor in Squamish the other day and the topic of how many realtors have sold their houses came up. That topic was too broad so we narrowed it down to how many realtors had not sold their house, which was a much more manageable number!

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

To Bull Bull Bull #13

According to my file http://www.chpc.biz/scorecard.html
Vancouver combined residential real estate
M/M price changes last 12 months:

AUG -0.1%
JUL 0.0%
JUN +0.6%
MAY +0.2%
APR +0.7%
MAR +0.5%
FEB +0.4%
JAN -0.5%
DEC -1%
NOV -1.1%
OCT -0.9%
SEP -0.6%

Out of 12 months there was +2.4%
Out of 12 months there was -4.2%

On the Vancouver Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver_chart.html
Average strata unit prices are in a flat 5 year pricing range and SFDs are down 13.3% from the peak.

My new post here: http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/09/inflation-not-hyper.html
…suggest that a continuation of the rise in the USD/CAD ratio may cause “investors” to rethink their value perception of real estate in Canada. Vancouver being the giant that it is has more downside risk than up as the last 12 months have shown.

jesse
Member

region Median household income $ (2010)
Canada (01) 61072
Montréal (462) 53024
Toronto (535) 70365
Calgary (825) 83220
Edmonton (835) 79075
Vancouver (933) 63347
Victoria (935) 61553

I dunno about this
Guest
I dunno about this

MLS V1027213

Is it a sign of desperation when Sotheby’s takes on a bottom market listing like this? I thought they focused on high-end luxury listings?

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