BC, Canada, data, opinion

Where is everybody moving to?

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For all the talk about urban density, it seems what’s really growing across Canada is the Suburbs.

The Vancouver Sun has an article about the growth of the suburbs that includes an interactive map showing population growth. Seems we’re moving away from the centre.

Indeed, a new national study suggests that despite the boom in construction of condo towers in Vancouver and Toronto, five times as many Canadians are opting for single-family homes, townhouses or apartments on “the suburban edges” of those cities rather than downtown condo living.

This has resulted, the study suggests, in even more auto-dependent suburbs and “exurbs,” areas of large rural properties with single-family homes, across the country. And if the trend continues, it warns, Canada will become even more suburban in the future.

“We have vastly overestimated the number of people who live in the downtown or inner city versus the number of people in the overall suburbs,” said David Gordon, a professor in the School of Urban and Regional Planning at Queen’s University who co-published the new paper, Urban Nation?: Estimating the size of Canada’s suburban population.

“Two-thirds of Canada’s total population live in the suburbs,” Gordon said. “We’re not an urban nation at all, not even close.”

Read the full article here.

In unrelated news, the local real estate focused Sauder School of Business at UBC does NOT encourage chants about assaulting underage girls.

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hardy
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BC builders are catching on. AB & ON are still going strong. Tale of the haves and have-nots?

“…BC had the country’s largest decline in building permits.”
http://www.news1130.com/2013/09/09/big-drop-in-number-of-metro-vancouver-building-permits/

Economic backbone AB should weather higher rates just fine. Backwater BC?…not so much.

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5 years 13 days ago
Softy
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The development programs of the city planners fail to account for one important variable: what people want. They want a house with a yard. If they have kids, they want it to be easy to drive places with the kids in the back and the stoller in the trunk.

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5 years 13 days ago
Loon
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Ibought in West Van, under a mill, sfh – 2 months ago.

I’m still a bear and still convinced prices are tanking for the next 10 yrs at least.

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5 years 13 days ago
condo_day_ftw
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condo_day_ftw
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@Softy While I agree we are currently building a lot of housing stock that misses what people really want, I blame malinvestment caused by the housing bubble far more than I blame city planners (though a lot of the housing talk spouted by city planners is itself a side effect of the housing bubble.) It comes down to different lairs for different bears … personally I am a city bear and could care less about having a yard and would gladly raise kids in the Kits condo I currently rent, only 15 mins from work downtown (and most of my neighbors are doing just this.) However, we are lucky to live in a great building that was built for people and families to live in (before the current bubble.) And I have nothing against the suburbs or rural areas. They… Read more »
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5 years 13 days ago
hyphen
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“Ibought in West Van, under a mill, sfh – 2 months ago. I’m still a bear and still convinced prices are tanking for the next 10 yrs at least.”

is this what the cops call ‘dissonance’?

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5 years 13 days ago
BUYER
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it’s really hard to find a nice house. the ones owned by asians are falling apart.

the ones built for/by asians are really ugly.

i was in one neighbourhood where there were houses built in the 90s that worn torn down and rebuilt by east indians. i assume it’s because the asian houses were too ugly and didn’t have a suite. these houses stood out from the rest of the neighbourhood but at least they looked good.

white baby boomers took care of their houses, so if you want to buy a place you are going to be looking at something built in the 70s or 80s, unless you want to tear it down.

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5 years 13 days ago
Absinthe
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Absinthe
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I must admit I’d much prefer to be urban, even with my kids, but I am living in a family neighbourhood on the outskirts instead. When we lived in the West End I was fine with the parks available, and I loved not having a car. However, the urban densification is all about SMALL. I’ve lived in apartments my whole life, and growing up we lived in 1200 square feet with storage & it worked just fine. One beautiful old building had built in bookshelves and chests of drawers, even. These days, 2 bedrooms is 680 square feet and there’s a second washroom crammed in there; 3 bedrooms includes an extra postage stamp or maybe greenhouse-like solarium that they suggest could work as a bedroom (if you didn’t particularly like your children, I suppose: I have lots of friends with… Read more »
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5 years 13 days ago
hyphen
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Where is everybody moving to?

a few guys I know have found aboriginal wives, and moved to the reserve.
Like a line out of Mad Max… ‘nothing to do but BREED’

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5 years 13 days ago
Rent$385
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From the article:

“Frankly the single-family house is a dinosaur. I’d get rid of single-family zoning in the Lower Mainland, just abolish it,” Harcourt said. “Then you would have a virtuous synergy with transit. We’re moving in that direction, we just have to be more conscious about it.”

Yes, transit is key, but the SFH isn’t a dinosaur. A lot of people consider a SFH as the epitome of real estate success. What’s needed is balance. Decent sized apartments in town where families could actually live and transit from the suburbs/SFHs so that those that want a back yard can commute.

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5 years 13 days ago
hyphen
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there is a strong positive correlation between cheap housing and high birth rates. So, if you iggy #8, then i suggest you’re an ostrich with your head in the ground.

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5 years 13 days ago
apartment_living
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i grew up in richmond in the 80s/90s. i went to school with the first batch of kids that come to canada from HK.

these guys spent their entire lives in a dense urban area living in apartments.

they were physically under developed to an extreme degree. they were so uncoordinated that something as simple as kicking a soccer ball was too difficult for them.

because of my experience i have an extreme aversion to raising kids in a high density area.

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5 years 13 days ago
oneangryslav2
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“i grew up in richmond in the 80s/90s. i went to school with the first batch of kids that come to canada from HK. these guys spent their entire lives in a dense urban area living in apartments. hey were physically under developed to an extreme degree. they were so uncoordinated that something as simple as kicking a soccer ball was too difficult for them.” Oh, for god’s sake! I hope that was snark and not what you really think. People growing up in apartments lack sufficient motor skills?!? Okay, here’s another anecdote. I spent a few years living in the Croatian coastal city of Split, in a high-rise apartment building in a residential neighbourhood with the completely functional name of Split 3. (Here’s a pic–http://www.slobodnadalmacija.hr/Portals/0/images/2009-11-03/Split/ST020404SPLIT3.jpg). Because of the Mediterranean climate, children would play sports year-round. Weekends were almost unbearable… Read more »
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5 years 13 days ago
Saver
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Some things never change:

Carney Cripples Savers for Years With Rates Pledge: U.K.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-08/boe-carney-s-interest-rates-cripples-u-k-savers.html

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5 years 13 days ago
Why the gloat?
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Split is the armpit of hell. A dump and in the summer it is 50c with humidity – don’t think there are many games of handball at that time.

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5 years 13 days ago
patriotz
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five times as many Canadians are opting for single-family homes, townhouses or apartments on “the suburban edges” of those cities rather than downtown condo living. Five times as many Canadians are buying outside downtown than in downtown? That’s supposed to be news? How big is downtown Vancouver (Toronto, etc.) compared to the whole metro? Just over fifty years ago, nobody was buying downtown condos. There weren’t any. Proportionately the “exodus” to the suburbs was bigger than it is today. The population of CoV declined all the way down to the low 400,000’s. “We have vastly overestimated the number of people who live in the downtown or inner city versus the number of people in the overall suburbs,” Who’s “we”? Obviously not StatsCan (loss of long form census notwithstanding). Not the school boards. Not Revenue Canada. Not the motor vehicle departments.… Read more »
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5 years 13 days ago
Melba
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“We have vastly overestimated the number of people who…….”

I will be interesting to count the number of individuals using that catchphrase in the next several months.

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5 years 13 days ago
jesse
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” A lot of people consider a SFH as the epitome of real estate success”

What Harcourt was suggesting based on the quote was not necessarily to eliminate SFH, but to increase MFD zoning. That is, if people want SFH that’s fine but it shouldn’t be a neighbourhood covenant to prevent it. Besides, the whole concept of “SFH” in Vancouver is pretty much a dinosaur given the amount of laneway and basement suites, both with and without permits, incorporated in detached builds.

I’m guessing Harcourt has been around long enough to be cynical of the “maintaining neighbourhood character” platitude.

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5 years 13 days ago
Son of Ponzi
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Angry Slav, 112
HK has about 6 million people. about the same as Austria or Switzerland.
Do you know of any good soccer player (or any team sports player) ever come from HK?

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5 years 13 days ago
oneangryslav2
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@14

“Split is the armpit of hell. A dump and in the summer it is 50c with humidity – don’t think there are many games of handball at that time.”

It’s not the greatest city in the world, for sure. It’s one of the reasons I no longer live there. For the record, however, it’s not nearly as hot or humid as you claim. And kids play handball throughout the whole year.

Quoting from:https://weatherspark.com/averages/32016/7/Split-Split-Dalmatia-Croatia

Split has a mediterranean climate with dry hot summers and mild winters.

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5 years 13 days ago
Son of Ponzi
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Melba # 16
Another phrase that we will soon be hearing as the Condo markets bursts is:
“We have vastly underestimated the number of offshore investors owning condos in Vancouver”.

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5 years 13 days ago
Devore
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@Softy: “The development programs of the city planners fail to account for one important variable: what people want. They want a house with a yard.”

What people want is irrelevant. Wants are like wishes: rainbows and unicorns. The only thing that matters is what people are willing to PAY for. What they’re paying for is what sells, and developers build more.

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5 years 13 days ago
apartment_living
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@oneangryslav2

split 3 looks really nice. there are two sports facilities and a pool right next door. and a few soccer fields not far away.

http://goo.gl/maps/wDsWy

that looks like very smart density. unfortunately i don’t think we have that here.

our high density neighbourhoods seem more friendly to dogs than children.

elementary schools in the westend have to ban dogs from the fields because of all the crap.

kids can’t even play in their own school. how do you think they are going to turn out?

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5 years 13 days ago
Son of Ponzi
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Devore,
“what people want is irrelevant”. correct.
The developers, HGTV and the realtors tell us what we “need”: Granite countertops, stainless steel and 2 bathrooms per person.

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5 years 13 days ago
Son of Ponzi
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Apartment living,
You’re right. The Europeans doing density the right way.
Here we just copy the Asian model of cramping in as many people as can possibly fit.

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5 years 13 days ago
Devore
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My family grew up in a 3 bedroom apartment. It was perfectly fine. The neighbourhood had plenty of facilities and amenities, and everything was close and nearby. It was really down to preference and affordability, what kind of housing you wanted. Sensible planning and zoning can go a long way. As for apartment dwellers being bad at sports, that’s a stretch at best. The areas that produce good athletes have more than one thing going for them, starting right at home, in the toddler stages. Availability of areas (parks etc), facilities and equipment or kids to play. Population density to support team sports. Availability of professional or experienced coaches and experts, not just formally (in a school or a league) but most importantly, in an informal setting. If adults are playing sports, chances are 100% that kids are too; if… Read more »
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