Canada, debt, economy, Open Topic, west side

FFFA! Foreclosure, stimulus, warning, investors

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256 Comments

It’s that time of the week again!

It’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat!

–Warnings on household debt
–Most popular day for foreclosures?
–GM frets over credit for car sales
–Get rich in RE? be realistic.
–Developers leaving sunshine coast?
–An extended period of overbuilding.
–Flaherty: Fed should wind up stimulus
–PTT is a hardship for millionaires
–3 Gibsons developments in depth
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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fixie guy

2.79% 5 yr. NEVER AGAIN Says: “No doubt dirty offshore money from China is flowing into Vancouver but it isn’t near enough to affect the market over the medium to long term.”

Agreed long term, market fundamentals always win out eventually. How can you be so confident about the medium term?

http://www.gfintegrity.org/content/view/581/70/
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20121220000106&cid=1102

According to WikiP, the second article is from a newspaper that “has been criticized of being “very biased” in favor of positive news about China.” 40000 immigrant from the PRC reached Canada in 2005 alone. $3.79T equates to nearly 4 million homes worth 1 million dollars. Vancouver would be a tiny fraction of that.
Smoke doesn’t prove fire, but there sure is a lot of smoke.

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mls watch

What right do you have to call me a liar?
She does exists, and she also mentioned that she is more and more often victim of racist comments. I agreed with her that the level of racism in BC today has nothing to envy to London or Amsterdam. It might be more hidden, but it is boiling inside. This is a very sad time for her, and for Canada. BTW, she also blames the corrupt Liberals and the boomers for their complicity in letting the market go out of control.

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2.79% 5 yr. NEVER AGAIN

“Was talking to a Chinese Canadian friend today. She is convinced that China is sending over army staff to keep an eye on some mainlanders, especially those who came to hide money. She says most buyers here are just parking money and have no interest in staying…” Really? What does your pretend friend base this on? Is it because she is Chinese and has some insight into the undercover operations of the Chinese Govt? No. Because she doesn’t exist and you are another troll trying to stir up shit. No doubt dirty offshore money from China is flowing into Vancouver but it isn’t near enough to affect the market over the medium to long term. Everyone just chill. Take a month or two off and check back in January. This market is cooked and everyone (even Bull! Bull! Bull!) knows… Read more »

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2.79% 5 yr. NEVER AGAIN

Everyone needs to take a pill.

Yes the crash is not here as Bull! Bull! Bull! reminds us of daily but prices are not going up either. If you are a renter just relax and continue to put your 50% savings in your pocket and bide your time. This market cannot defy basic economics forever. No market ever has and we will be no different.

The glory days of Vancouver RE are long in the rearview mirror.

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mls watch

Was talking to a Chinese Canadian friend today. She is convinced that China is sending over army staff to keep an eye on some mainlanders, especially those who came to hide money. She says most buyers here are just parking money and have no interest in staying…

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2.79% 5 yr. NEVER AGAIN

Chinese stock market has rebounded up and that means more suitcases of red, hot, untaxed money will be hitting our shores. Very depressing.

Actually it means that my beaten down China ETF is rocking and I am making more in the last month than I would in a yr. on Van RE.

There is so many more ways to skin a cat (or eat it if you happen to be from China)

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n.y.k.

Financial Planner: “You cannot put a price on pride”

LOLWTF

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Johnny-boy

Dark days for bears. Our blogs are closing down, the buyers are still buying interest rates and CMHC cut back be damned. List sales are low and we should be seeing a spike this time of year and with pre-approvals gone.

Gold is up and rates are down today which means more money to go round. Meanwhile the Chinese stock market has rebounded up and that means more suitcases of red, hot, untaxed money will be hitting our shores. Very depressing.

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Son of Ponzi

I believe parents should never sacrifice for the sake of securing financial security for their offsprings.
They want appreciate it anyway and can’t wait to pry the house keys from your cold, dead hands.
Remember, live long enough to become a burden for your children.

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Turkey

Portfolio Makeover: In a hot housing market, should Liam and Sophia keep renting or buy?

Financial Planner “A” says:

“You cannot put a price on pride of ownership, control of your environment and stability.”

Actually, it’s trivial to put a price on “pride of ownership” — it’s a factor of 2, right out of the gate. More, when you add the insurance that both of these disinterested consultants are flogging, in order to mitigate financial catastrophe (should one partner die early) by adding another slow-bleed monthly expense. And that still leaves out property insurance, major repairs, et cetera. So, let’s say a factor of 3. I’ll take “pride of not-being-destitute” instead.

Financial Planner “B” says:

1. Meet with a licensed, accredited financial planner.

Great advice — maybe there’s one nearby! Credibility blown.

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It's simple

this bubble is getting bigger and bigger

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paulb

New Listings 150
Price Changes 99
Sold Listings 132
TI:16669

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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condo_day_ftw

In my case owning would only be 86% more than renting. Maybe I need to negotiate a better deal from my landlord! 🙂

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jesse

“typical selfish anglo-saxon”

If you are excusing why parents are sacrificing their quality of life for their children’s benefit, perhaps the children should instead be telling their parents to enjoy themselves more and not feel guilty about it.

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HVM

” Maybe I need to think about my grandchildren’s grandchildren or some such bullsh!t.”

typical selfish anglo-saxon mentality.

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N

Yup, twice my rent. Then and now, based on assessed value.

I have a good deal, but not a crazy good deal. I have looked, and it seems my rent is about 10% below asking for comparable places.

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jesse

“anyone who bought a house in 2006”
…is doing better if they sell. On a cash flow basis I have to disagree, ESPECIALLY for a “house”.

The dilemma I’ve seen with people who have significant appreciated equity in their properties is around if/when they should sell. I mean, having a house that’s valuable is great for brining up at parties, but of limited use otherwise. I suppose one could refinance and “tap” the equity in the asset or some such thing but the endgame is ultimately selling the thing. Or maybe not. Maybe I need to think about my grandchildren’s grandchildren or some such bullsh!t.

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C.Junta

C’mon, it’s gonna be alright. Vancouver is open for business:

http://postimg.org/image/vjiqnzqn5

Sorry, couldn’t help taking a picture this morning.

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Mick Murphy

The Struggles of Affluent East Asian Youth In Canada

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2013/10/12/the-struggles-of-affluent-east-asian-youth-in-canada/

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

the last post on this blog was on October 11th. how long do we wait before we add vancouvercondo.info to the list of casualty list for the great bear blog collapse of 2013?

i predict vancouvercondo.info sees a dead cat bounce of postings in november.

the doom sayers are capitulating!…. i’m starting to get a little bit worried by that, cause we known that all of you are always wrong.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

“That said, I don’t think the stress of carrying a mortgage that would have been twice my rent, even in 2006, would have been compensated by the appreciation I would have seen.”

twice your rent? appreciation wouldn’t have compensated you? are you serious?

yeah, buying condos is stupid, every one knows that. but anyone who bought a house in 2006 is doing WAY WAY WAY WAY better than renters.

again, how is rent twice the mortage? maybe there are isolated instances of this, but if people think this is the norm…. wow… i don’t know what to say…

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jesse

N 229, based on my analysis of the aggregated MLS apartment index, people who bought any time in the past 6 years have not seen meaningful appreciation in nominal terms. At current mortgage rates, buy vs rent is, for lower-priced units, approaching parity on a cash flow basis however once accounting for savings for future capital outlays, and weighing the risks of interest rate and price shocks compared to rental inflation, I think renting is still the better option after accounting for these risks. This is much more true for higher-priced units, where cap rates are sub-3%. If you believe guys like Warren Buffett, when they invest they require an additional discount in place to account for the chance they are wrong in their analysis. From what I see now, buyers have no buffer in place. This is also phrased… Read more »

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Many Franks

The first of probably many reflections on the balanced budget law part of the “bread and circuses” throne speech. Canada’s Balanced-Budget Law Plan May Mean Easy Monetary Policy As far as I’m concerned, it’s about as toothless as they come: Details in the speech were scant, revealing only that the legislation will “require balanced budgets during normal economic times, and concrete timelines for returning to balance in the event of an economic crisis.” It’s not clear whether the legislation will be introduced in the 2014 budget or later. If we take “normal economic times” as “times when the budget is balanced,” and “economic crisis” as “times when we couldn’t balance the budget,” it’s tautology. However, the author of this article is speculating that it’s another indicator of ongoing low rates and potentially commensurate policy tightening (think: lending restrictions rather than… Read more »

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dyugle

The market does seem to be changing at the margins. The listings and inventory appears to be holding. The shift is in market make up. I track West of Main Street including Main Street and there is still about 3050 =/- 50 listings. This has been fairly constant. What is not constant is that the number of SFH has dropped from over 1000 to about 920. The number of low priced houses (under 1.5 million) has fallen from over 100 to about 72. My take is that SFH owners are not that desperate and will pull listings and/or the lower priced houses are in demand and will sell. Condos appear to be a much tougher sell as any sales in SFH are being made up for in condo listings. I will watch the condo market (new builds) for the first… Read more »

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VMD

(OOT) 2 days after my friend at a major accounting firm auditing mining compaines told me about the gold miner’s troubles: OCTOBER 17, 2013 Tight money and tough market take toll on BC mining firms Tough market conditions for raising funds have forced many B.C. junior mining companies into survival mode until markets improve, according to a KPMG study released today. The study noted falling stock prices and rising transactional costs for structuring deals have “diminished” the cost-effectiveness of public financing. Some junior companies have worked together to cut costs by sharing office space and administrative staff, freeing up a significant amount of office space in downtown Vancouver. The findings came from interviews with executives from 15 B.C.-based junior mining companies. “Much of the funding (raised today) is survival capital – being used to keep the company operational until such… Read more »

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