FFFA! Stats, Lies and Videotape

Friday is here!

And that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread. HOORAY!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Condos and casino together
House prices rising, condos keep dropping
Red hot or recovering?
Time for more transparency?
A petition if you think so
So are these stats right or not?
Foreclosure challenge leaderboard
Vancouver Island stats
The wealthy sleep just fine
We love taxpayer insured mortgages
Realtor Hunger Index at 62%

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a fantastic weekend filled with sunshine, tropical beaches and good times!

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ILoveCharts
Guest
ILoveCharts
I don’t really care if there is a crash in the next few months or not. The only thing that matters to me is that Vancouver real estate does not provide good value for your money. No one can really predict what will happen in the coming years. The price of housing will be determined by factors that are far beyond our control and that are very difficult to predict. Will F or the OSFI clamp down on the rules? Or maybe F or the OSFI will sit still until the correction begins and then loosen lending rules to help ensure the landing is soft? Will the US get their sh*& together? Will BC see a boom of natural gas development? etc. etc. Life is long and the world is large. No need to lock myself into a single huge… Read more »
CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder
Bubble watchers may want to keep an eye on developments in New Zealand where the only sane central bankers seem to be in charge. While their colleagues around the world twiddle their thumbs, occasionally lecturing on high debt loads, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is taking a proactive role in cooling their property market. New measures were brought in effective October 1, banks are now restricted to having no more than 10 per cent of new housing lending issued towards loan-to-value ratios of more than 80 per cent. Both major political parties opposed the broad-based measures, wanting first home buyers and cheaper properties exempted but the Bank basically told them to piss off. Governor Graeme Wheeler even came out with a statement this week and said “if the loan-to-value speed limit is unable to slow house price inflation, larger… Read more »
GP
Guest
GP

I think you people should consider switching this blog over to a google blogspot blog.

patriotz
Member

@2: Those measures that the RBNZ is taking are beyond the powers of the Bank of Canada. The power to impose such regulations in Canada lies with OSFI and CMHC, which means Flaherty, which means Harper.

George
Guest
George
Concord Pacific unveiled plans this week to build more condo towers on False Creek in the parking lot by the viaducts and BC Place. The area is being named “False Creek Central”. I got a chuckle when I read this line in the Metro rag newspaper: “The area will help the city shed its “no fun” label, B.C. Lions president Dennis Skulsky said at the event.” More condos are going to help us shed the no fun label! Give me a break! The article goes on to talk about how the development will include a pharmacy, grocery stores and a new bike path! Stop it! This is too much fun! Now I can ride my bike to pick up my prescription for anti-depressants in this sick city! As for the new casino and going to BC Place to take in… Read more »
George
Guest
George

Why is my comment awaiting moderation? What did I do wrong? This site has really been slow lately. I couldn’t access it all for about two days this week. I hate moderation. If I wanted my comments moderated, I would makes comments on Garth Turner’s blog or CBC.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

GreaterFool 大傻的温哥华房市分析站 Vancouver RE Blog is back.

http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.ca/

VMD
Member

@#6 Joe, thanks for the announcement, I was on vacay and google/blogspot suspended my account due to ‘suspicious sign-in from several countries’ by my mobile device sync’ing. Just noticed that when I tried to check on my blog a few days ago, for a minute I thought The Cartel has caught up with me ; )

Many Franks
Member
Active Member
Since laneway houses are the new black, anyone want to see a photo gallery along with prices? Vancouver Laneway Houses For Rent, From Most To Least Expensive Homeowner expectations for these seem to be off the charts. With 1,000 permits out since 2009, the experiment is well under way. I’m not convinced owners can rent a glorified treefort out for thousands of dollars a month — seriously, $3k/mo for the opportunity to hit your head on the gable ceiling? I’ll be less than shocked to start hearing horror stories about construction costs. Having to meet code on a free-standing 600 square foot building is about the worst concentration of costs also for infrastructure and heating, not just construction. I wonder why they didn’t include this one: it’s incredibly cheap ($350/mo), includes all the mod cons (gas cooktop, no word on… Read more »
Bailing in BC
Member

I’ve just updated my spread sheet on the forum.

It contains Squamish data as well as BC bankruptcy and foreclosure data and RFM’s realtor hunger index in graph form.

http://vancouverpeak.com/showthread.php?tid=479&pid=5716#pid5716

Of note this month is the inventory page (see tabs on bottom) There is something very fishy in regards to the inventory. The number of listings in total does not even vaguely resemble the sum of all the housing types, SFH+TH+Condos…Etc

Bailing in BC
Member

Hey Many Franks, how about this one

http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=260527678

Vancouver’s first laneway foreclosure?

Me thinks someone spent a little too much money on construction (and then added a million)

space889
Member
space889
@BPOM – well you have a reputation for rudeness and arrogance and frankly I wouldn’t be surprised if you throw the first insult in that exchange. You have a reputation and frankly don’t be so shocked you are blamed for things you didn’t do. Anyways, regarding inflation rate, here is one source – http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts The website calculates the alternative/shadow inflation rate using the official methodology that US government itself used in the 1980s. So it is not some methods came up by tinfoil hat gold & guns doomers. Yes, you can say the 80s methodology has issues but so does the current method. There is no perfect method. What is known is that each change to CPI calculation method results in a lower CPI number which in turns lowers government payout. So CPI is biased towards low numbers. Unfortunately there… Read more »
Laurey
Guest
Laurey

so who owns the land on the laneway house? For example that foreclosed one do they split the land between principal building and laneway house?

inkits
Guest
inkits

Its a strata couch house. The main house is a duplex — so a total of 3 units in the strata. Think of it as a ‘detached townhouse’.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

@ Bailing

That’s great history on the new cases for foreclosures. I’m starting to pluck the data a little. See below.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

New BC Foreclosure Filings for Oct 3-4, 2013

Two day total / (Today’s new filings)

Vancouver: 16 (4)
Victoria: 6 (4)
New Westminster: 4 (1)
Nanaimo: 3 (2)
Kamloops: 2(0)
Cranbrook: 2 (1)
Golden: 1 (1)
Salmon Arm: 1 (0)
Kelowna: 1 (0)

Not going to do the lenders today … suffice it to say CIBC is the winner this week.

So, using the case numbers, it is possible to extract just the new cases. Now the case numbers are loaded, it will be easy to pull off just the new filings. There is a possibility that the two day number overstates actual two day filings if some cases stay on the list longer than two days, which might be happening in some locations.

ILoveCharts
Guest
ILoveCharts

This Globe and Mail article seems to hint that tougher regulations may need to be applied.
Will we hear from the OSFI soon?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/home-sales-surge-in-september/article14675391/

@ILoveCharts
Guest
@ILoveCharts

if you really don’t care why do you keep posting? shouldn’t you just move on after determining that real estate isn’t a good place to put your money?

ILoveCharts
Guest
ILoveCharts

I never said RE isn’t a good place to put my money. I just said LOCAL RE isn’t a good place to put my money TODAY. I watch local RE to provide context compared to other markets that I am looking at and to provide context over time in the event that I do decide to make a purchase here in the future.

VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work

Speaking of OSFI, Euroweek just had an interview with Julie Dickson
“OSFI a rare beast: a financial watchdog with real teeth” Sep 30, 2013

– focus on the section “Does OSFI share the concerns of Fitch that ‘the main domestic threat to the stability of the Canadian banks is the record level of consumer indebtedness and the risk of overvaluation in the housing market’? Is there anything a regulator can (or should) do to help address these threats?”

patriotz
Member

@12: “Also, I seriously doubt Zambabwe’s interest rate hit anything over 1.0 * 10^100% when its highest annualized hyperinflation rate is way over that.”

It was infinite – nobody was willing to lend money. On the open market that is, i.e. excluding sweetheart loans to friends of Mugabe.

That is what always happens under hyperinflation. People either spend money immediately or convert it to hard currency. Nobody saves it so nobody lends it.

patriotz
Member

@13: “so who owns the land on the laneway house? ”

It’s a condo – just horizontal rather than the usual vertical. Note the maintenance fee. Same as foreclosure of any condo, the land actually belongs to the strata.

Laurey
Guest
Laurey

interesting. thanks patriotz.

VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work

City planner who moonlights as developer reassigned after community complains of conflict Oct 2, 2013
– btw, her husband is an investment officer at CMHC.

Lenny
Guest
Lenny

New Westminster has turned from a shithole into a very hip spot…people everywhere..new restaurants and businesses opening and house prices are half what they are in Vancouver…but hey keep bitching and complaining and miss out on the opportunity to live in a nice place.

Lenny
Guest
Lenny

Says Ilovecharts….”Life is long and the world is large. No need to lock myself into a single huge overvalued investment in this small town.”

Life is not “long” it’s extremely short…I refuse to live in some dump and pay someone else which is what renting gets you these days.Everyone I know that retired somewhere else sold their house in the city to do it.

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