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FFFA! Stats, Lies and Videotape

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124 Comments

Friday is here!

And that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread. HOORAY!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Condos and casino together
–House prices rising, condos keep dropping
–Red hot or recovering?
–Time for more transparency?
–A petition if you think so
–So are these stats right or not?
–Foreclosure challenge leaderboard
–Vancouver Island stats
–The wealthy sleep just fine
–We love taxpayer insured mortgages
–Realtor Hunger Index at 62%

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a fantastic weekend filled with sunshine, tropical beaches and good times!

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Dan

proud Vancouverite…

have you ever been to Venice Beach in june?… point taken, but as a

“vancouverite” for 52 years,its sept.,oct.,nov.,dec.,jan.,feb.,mar.,

apr.,and the last half of may and usually june that we have to deal with!

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mac

The Paris burbs are beautiful? No one has a long commute? Only Vancouver has massive immigration and people gaming the system? No one leaves Paris to live elsewhere? This is the dreamscape of the tourist. Maybe go to Montreal and speak to the thousands of Parisians who have invaded Le Plateau and ask them why they’re there. They’ll tell you l’insecurite and a host of other facts that go along with life in Paris that includes astronomical costs of living, impossibility of being hired in a good job unless you’ve been on track for that your whole life, obnoxiously horrific failure at integrating minorities, dangerous banlieus which people avoid living in if they can at all help it, cost of living that forces workers into long commutes into the city, long, long working hours that spurred the motto: metro, boulot,… Read more »

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realist

@ 120 Jesse & @ 121 Son of Ponzi:

Both very well said. For the record, I have in recent years attempted to engage two “very senior, distinguished, etc.” academic Canadian economists in a discussion of credit markets & asset bubbles, & got no where. On both occasions I sensed there was little knowledge & no interest.

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Son of Ponzi

Jese,
Political insiders may not have the knowledge to predict, but they have the power to make sure that predictions come true.

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jesse

” requires insider political knowledge to predict”

I often wonder if that’s even possible. From what I’ve been reading from speeches and off-hand remarks it’s far from clear even the most senior of government economists fully grasp how credit markets develop.

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N

@ ILoveCharts “Prices could stabilize for a long time until the fundamentals catch up.” This is unlikely. Basically all properties on the market in Vancouver at current prices are cash flow negative. (The same consideration holds true if you are buying to live in it, because you could rent for less somewhere else, so you are still losing money.) This is offset by the expectation of future appreciation. For ages now, people have bought houses for more than they would rent for, and still ended up ahead of the game (at least on paper) because of appreciation. As soon as houses stop appreciating for any length of time, the calculation will shift. People will not expect that the monthly loss (or loss compared to renting) will be offset by appreciation, and so they will not be willing to buy. At… Read more »

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Son of Ponzi

#117
“incomes could go up”.
Like this will ever happen.

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ILoveCharts

@115 fixie guy: I agree with what you have said. My point is that we might not see a crash in the short term. There are a lot of other possible scenarios: – Things could still go up a little and last for a while longer before they go down. – Prices could drop very slowly over a very long period of time. – Prices could stabilize for a long time until the fundamentals catch up. With any of those scenarios, I’m still happy with my decision to not buy today because it is an overvalued asset. Of course, there is also a small chance that there will be additional frustrations for us bears on the horizon: – The Canadian Dollar could drop in value compared to the USD and that would help to eliminate one of the fundamental imbalances… Read more »

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YVR

Tedeastside: There are some things in life you can control and some things you cannot. For example you can’t control the weather in Vancouver but you can leave at anytime to enjoy ‘better’ weather. You can’t control the available jobs in Vancouver but you can control if you get one of the better ones or not. You can’t control housing prices but you can control if you buy or rent.

Personally I like Vancouver but that does not mean housing prices make sense. At some point the housing prices will correct. If it is more than housing prices you don’t like about Vancouver then my suggestion is to leave. Those things are not likely to change anytime soon even if you complain about them ad nauseam.

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fixie guy

@1 ILoveCharts Says: “No one can really predict what will happen in the coming years..”

Predictions with a very high degree of probability are still possible.

If:

– housing prices are at multiples of historic norms going back generations
– during a period of historically lax mortgage standards
– propped by a costly, risky and unsustainable government policy

then:

– it’s a safe bet prices will eventually fall.

‘What’ is the easy part, ‘when’ is the question. Price timing is currently decoupled from market forces and requires insider political knowledge to predict.

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jesse

“Why stop there? Rent the top and bottom”

Ahhh…. Stop there and ask the simple question, is the lender willing to lend against this property without income? Funny that as an investment this property is having trouble standing solely on its own revenue stream.

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patriotz

Submit doesn’t work. Instead of submit box displays [tdomf_form1].

Firefox and IE.

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ILoveCharts

“Families ‘scarred’ from financial crisis hold tight to cash, shun risk 5 yrs later”
http://www.news1130.com/2013/10/07/families-scarred-from-financial-crisis-hold-tight-to-cash-shun-risk-5-yrs-later/

Vancouver families would do well to read this report carefully and learn some lessons from others.

Or…. we can just wait and learn things the hard way.

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tedeastside

hey proud Vancouverite please compare career opportunities in Los Angeles vs. Vancouver…since your so good at comparing

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Devore

““if the couple was willing to live in the basement suite themselves and rent out the rest of the house”

it is my opinion, that once a landlord goes this route, he’s lost.”

Why stop there? Rent the top and bottom, and live in a trailer in the driveway. Then you can get your mortgage with $0 income.

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crikey

@#108

>>Its like 2 hours from LA….way past Malibu.
And that proves what exactly, that you can tell time?

>>and that gives you the right and knowledge to say Vancouver is worst than LA??
Um, I never even mentioned LA. You sure do have a weird fixation with that city though.

>>Only thing famous [in Santa Barabara] is the pier (in the movie “Taken 2″ at the end).
Now famous things are the measuring stick for where you should live?
Yes, I have lived there, not just driven by (which is what you think makes you an expert)

I grade you 2/10 for your post. So obviously trying hard to troll now, but 2 points for satirizing the stupidity of bulls so well.

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Proud Vancouverite!

Crikey, Thanks for proving my point. Yes I’ve been to Santa Barbara. Only thing famous there is the pier (in the movie “Taken 2” at the end). Its like 2 hours from LA….way past Malibu. and that gives you the right and knowledge to say Vancouver is worst than LA?? Hahahaha…like I said Capital “L”! Have you been to Venice Beach in June and Kits Beach In June? Guess which one has sunny skies? Live there and then you can say one is better than the other. Vancouver IS world class. We’re going to welcome 500,000 new residents eery 10 years for the foreseeable future. Hope you have your SFD home! ———————————————————————-@#101 “Only a few areas are decent to live in and that’s if you have money.” Have you ever been to Santa Barbara? For the price of a tear… Read more »

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N

@ Laurrey

Yes, I did. We were living in NYC and thinking of moving to Toronto, and my wife noticed an article saying Vancouver was ranked high, which made us both want to check it out. Obviously, we did our research before moving, so the ranking was very far from the only factor, but it’s what started the ball moving.

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Laurey

Do anybody knows anyone that moved to a city based on one of these rankings?

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mls watch

“best city” depends on what you do.
For example:
http://www.dgdr.cnrs.fr/drhchercheurs/concoursch/chercheur/carriere-fr.htm
I would say UBC profs make 1.5 times more. But for a prof with 3 children, the taxes are much lower in France.

Everyone should make their own research and not follow the headlines/international rankings.

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jesse

Of those I have known moving to coastal cities in the US, what they can, or rather cannot, buy comes somewhat of a shock. Don’t believe everything you read in the news.

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FATHER

Crikey you are right I am born and raised in Vancouver and seen a lot of changes here, I have seen and been to the US & I loved it, I have never imagined life any where else but I still have a couple of years left to retire so until then I can’t move to the house I bought there so until I’m ready I will sell my businesses & move

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crikey

@#101 “Only a few areas are decent to live in and that’s if you have money.”

Have you ever been to Santa Barbara? For the price of a tear down POS in Vancouver West you can get a home with twice the lot size in year-round paradise.

There are many examples, here is just one:
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/762-Juanita-Ave_Santa-Barbara_CA_93109_M25657-05132?source=web

Seriously, Vancouver prices are a complete ripoff in comparison.

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Proud Vancouverite!

People with no money saying that NYC, Los Angeles, and London is better than Vancouver. All on the premise that Vancouver’s house prices are overpriced.

The funniest thing was where one poster said LA! LOL. have they even lives there? probably not. Only a few areas are decent to live in and that’s if you have money.

This from a bunch of renters who have no money AND have never visited those cities. What a bunch of losers…Capital L! I second his blog as having the “lowest IQ members”. Too bad they are the ones defending the “Bear argument”.

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crikey

“There is nothing sadder than someone who hates where they live, yet continues to live there, while routinely complaining about it. It’s not healthy! So go find a better lifestyle elsewhere and you’ll be happier for it.” It is one thing to hate where you live — I totally agree, those people should go elsewhere. BUT I equally have no time for people who pompously proclaim Vancouver to be far better than it actually is, the “Best Place in the World” , etc — anybody that has lived in a semi-decent climate outside Canada knows that is ridiculous, and only exists as a marketing gimmick and to dupe the dimwitted. This conversation is timely. A very good American friend of mine has a contract that is well into six figures per annum, for which he has been working here for… Read more »

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