The Central Bank That Cried Wolf.

There once was a central banker who was bored as he sat on the hillside watching the village sheep. To amuse himself he took a great breath and sang out that some property prices were “probably overvalued“.

The Canadians came running out of their homes to try to pay down their debt and get their finances in order. But when they arrived at the top of the hill, they found record low interest rates and rising property prices along with stagnating incomes. The central banker laughed at the sight of their angry faces.

“Don’t cry ‘high debt loads” said the Canadians, “when there’s no interest rate increases!” They went grumbling back down the hill and signed up for some more mortgages.

The banker was replaced with another, but he played the same naughty game, singing out “The elevated level of household debt and stretched valuations in some segments of the housing market remain an important downside risk to the Canadian economy”

By this time though the Canadians were wise to these pranks and they wisely held their place in the line up for the latest greatest condo pre-sales opportunity.  The banker retired with a gigantic pension and everyone lived happily ever after.

MORAL: Load up on more consumer debt, invest in hot real estate. What could possibly go wrong?


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Canada, Australia and the UK all have bears in common.


“What a uniquely Australian phenomenon”

It’s no phenomenon. Just think what Canada, Australia and the UK have in common and you’ll get it.


@81 I don’t know what the purchase price was back in 08 (if it was sold then), but this was the listing back in 2008, the year it was built.

It was called “San Marc Tuscany Villa” and was “previously owned as a second residence“.

If the original owner paid anything close to the original asking price of $5.9M back in 2008 for this vacation home, he’s short $2.4M, a lambo, and “$450k worth of furniture & art.”


45% drop, but that is still expensive for our resident bears.
but thanks for posting.

Barb Rennie


How much did the seller pay for the property? And when was it purchased?


From one of my contacts:
This luxurious Kelowna mansion was auctioned off today (see Auction Site Here)

Built: 2008
Listing Price (2008): $5,900,000
Listing Price (2013): $4,350,000 (May/13)
Assessed Value (2013):$3,780,000
Auction Date: Oct 24, 2013
Winning Bid: $3,500,000
Winning bidder got “house, a free Lamborghini, $250k of furniture, and $200k of beautiful art as part of the deal!”


come on bears, you can buy a surrey two bd condo at $140k. the reason you cant afford anything in this town or in the burb is that you keep sitting on your fat arses all day whinning, and hoping someone is gonna give you a royal suite in coal habour.



What a uniquely Australian phenomenon, the vomit-inducing property auction. If you think real estate agents are greasy you can imagine what the property auctioneers are like.

I’m having a hard time following the logic of the winning bidders – “Sydney prices are just nuts at the moment so I know we’re never going to lose money here.”


Who’s seen the Sixth and Willow townhouse on West 6th lately? I swear it is the ugliest piece of work i have ever seen, the rusted iron slats should be illegal, you swear its a prison in the making, these toilets start at 989,000, woooo me thinks the few suckers who have bought are now suicidal . Unfnbelievable


Here is a link to a short news story about the currently heating Australian market.

After I watched it, I found this story from July.


“is the crash being postponed yet another year”

(Don’t tell anyone, but the market has already partly corrected. The debate should be when it stops correcting.)



is this hot or not for this time of the year? what armchair economists have to say?


New Listings 201
Price Changes 101
Sold Listings 144

Bull! Bull! Bull!

how have sales been lately? is the crash being postponed yet another year?


Housing prices are going to stay stable at worst going forward. They will rise 10+% at best.

I know this detaches them from the so called ‘fundamentals’ but this is totally a new era. Low rates for a long time and 50,000 people coming here per year for decades.

I’m just hoping for a small sudden shock to the system so I can get in before it all starts taking off again.

Worst decision I ever made was listening to ‘bear’ websites. They will continue to be wrong. What trend is going to stop home prices from increasing?? None.


“beggars and the homeless”

tell me a city of 2 mil in north america that does not have those?

The difference is that elsewhere in Canada (I won’t speak for the US) they are confined to downtown and the crappy areas adjacent to it – not everywhere from UBC to Abbotsford.


“Don’t bet money with the doomers

Some anonymous guy prognosticates about future currency movements. Best of luck to you.

Mortgage Borker

” His bet against the loonie is already starting to look good.”

if you put money with them you are going to loose. As long oil is around $100 expect parity with US$. Don’t bet money with the doomers.


“The Financial planner course is on par “

I think it’s more that the finance industry does not self-select for intelligence. No offence to anyone here — I’m sure there are a lot of smart finance people — but intelligence doesn’t seem to be a meaningful arbiter, in other words the type of work doesn’t require you to be smart.

I expect being money-grubbing and greedy will be assets (if you love money, and indeed who doesn’t, why not do a job you love?) but I might be wrong on that one and I’m sure there are exceptions.

Best place on meth

Speaking of that US hedge fund betting against our real estate by shorting the banks and the loonie, the Q&A with the manager of the fund is fascinating.

Mr. Mohan has clearly done his homework. His bet against the loonie is already starting to look good.


…Some people here will be the first ones to tell you that managing other people’s money doesn’t require being bright as a prerequisite….

Isn’t that the truth! The Financial planner course is on par with the Realturd course.


“They haven’t paid off, yet”

Gamblers gonna gamble. Some people here will be the first ones to tell you that managing other people’s money doesn’t require being bright as a prerequisite.