FFFA! Canada, Construction, Condos, Confidence

Wake up!

Grab some coffee and some left-over halloween candy, it’s Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Ready to count BOC out of rate hike?
Consumer confidence falling
‘red mitten’ benefit from winter games
Flaherty to give market a talking to
Housing Analysis construction activity
Buying Genworth?
Preparing for a stock market correction
Can we have some accurate data?
The foreclosure cup
Where’s the next property bubble?
Best places to retire

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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VMD
Member

Estimated October 2013 Stats: (official #’s due Monday)

2013 vs 2012
Sales 2480 vs 1931(+28%)
Lists 4140 vs 4323 (-4.2%)
Ratio 61% vs 46%

Est Month end Inventory: 15340 vs 17370(-11.7%)
MOI:6.2 vs 9.0 (Oct/12) vs 6.5 (Sept/13)

Historical Oct Sales: (2003-2012 10Y Avg=2700)
2002: 2866
2003: 3765
2004: 2734
2005: 3099
2006: 2722
2007: 3028
2008: 1364
2009: 3704
2010: 2337
2011: 2317
2012: 1931
2013~2480 (-8.1% vs 10 year average)

VMD
Member

Oct vs Sept (same year) Sales: (2003-2012 10Y Avg = +4.4%)
2003: +12%
2004: -3.9%
2005: -7.3%
2006: +8.1%
2007: +9.1%
2008: -14%
2009: +4.1%
2010: +5.3%
2011: +3.2%
2012: +27%
2013: 0% (Oct sales flat vs Sep)

2013 vs 2012 YoY Monthly Sales:
May: +1%
Jun: +12% (Fixed rates started rising, last chance to get 5Y 2.79% preapproval)
Jul: +40%
Aug: +52%
Sep: +64%
Oct: +28% (declining YoY gain)(Running out of low-rate-holds?)

2013 Monthly Sales vs 10Y Same-Month Avg Sales
Jan: -18.7%
Feb: -30.9%
Mar: -30.2%
Apr: -20.9%
May: -19.4%
Jun: -22%
Jul: +0.1%
Aug: -4.6%
Sep: -1%
Oct: -8.1% (are 120 day preapprovals starting to expire now?)

CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder
Interesting article in Forbes on the massive amount of overbuilding that has occurred in China: “Over the last two years of traveling constantly in China, I can say that I have not seen a single city, town, or hamlet without massive empty housing stock. A colleague, on two trips crossing about 1,500 kilometers overland, said that he was not out of sight of empty buildings even once. Up by the Siberian border, the town of Manzhouli has decided to become a tourist resort and built thousands of empty “villa” developments. In the southern mountains of Yunnan, a colleague took video footage of 15 kilometers unbroken of empty highrises. The ghost developments stretch along Beijing’s southern Fourth Ring and through Shanghai’s Pudong and Xuhui. The East District Zhengzhou looks like a post-apocalyptic landscape. The new districts of Harbin could earn some… Read more »
patriotz
Member

Someone in the previous thread was talking about what one could retain in bankruptcy. Here are the numbers:

British Columbia – Exempt Property
Food and fuel: none.
Clothing: no dollar limit.
Household goods: up to $4,000
One motor vehicle: up to $5,000 (or $2,000 if you behind on child support payments).
Health aids: no dollar limit.
Tools of your trade: up to $10,000.
Farm property: none.
Principal residence: up to $9,000 (or $12,000 in Greater Vancouver or Victoria).

http://www.bankruptcy-canada.ca/what-i-keep-or-lose-in-bankruptcy-in-canada/bankruptcy-exemptions-in-canada.htm

The last line does not contain a typo. Also exempt are pension assets including RRSP contributions make up to 2 years previously.

registered
Member
registered

“Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is taking on the responsibility of averting a housing bubble in Canada that could destabilize the economy…”

Flaherty can’t get any slimier. The link below is an inflation adjusted graph (Teranet) of the Canadian housing market they’re trying to ‘prevent’ from a becoming a bubble:
http://i41.tinypic.com/t7cpdk.gif

patriotz
Member

Understandable that Flaherty is a personal friend of Rob Ford – both are experts are projecting alternate realities.

Saul Goodman
Guest
Saul Goodman
@#4. Yup. Many have way too much home equity as prices go up. They should all refinance and buy rental properties using the CMHC loopholes for second properties. Poloz is not going to fight the Fed. He is such a fucking spineless weasel, rates may even go down in Canada! As I pointed out, the cost of going bankrupt is very low. So using more leverage when rolling the RE appreciation dice is a no brainer. Worst case you keep what you started with and can start flipping mortgages again in as little as two years after bankruptcy with all your bad investments wiped clean. The goal of course is that properties levered into to your portfolio go up dramatically – you sell them and pocket the cash before the inevitable crash in a few years. One thing I forgot… Read more »
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

VMD you should start your own blog. this site is full of nut jobs, permabears, and eternal pessimists who ignore reality, stats and facts.

good-format
Guest
good-format

@VMD

According to PaulB’s daily number, the total sales for Oct is 2672 (Missing one day’s data but I took the sales number from RobChipman).

Sales number is about 40% higher than last Oct in 2012. And is 1% lower than 10-year average.

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

Bloomberg had a good story on Halloween with respect to big U.S. money moving into depressed Spanish real estate. I have reprinted some choice quotes here:
http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/10/spanish-inquisition.html

Example: “While Spain traditionally has a lower percentage of renters than the U.S., the (Spanish) government last year introduced measures to increase demand in the rental market by abolishing tax breaks for individual home buyers, passing legislation to protect landlords by speeding up evictions of tenants who don’t pay, allowing owners to raise rents above the annual inflation rate and reducing the duration of leases.”

Big money loves government subsidy. Trick or Treat.

VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work

@9 good-format
Thanks for data! Upon adding the one day of missing data (Oct 18) from Chipman’s site, and adjusting data into estimated-REBGV data (official data almost always lower than sum of paulb’s/chipman’s data):
Estimated REBGV data:
Oct/13 Sales ~2635
vs 10Y avg: -2.4% (slightly worse than last month)
vs Sept/13: +6% (much less monthly gain vs 2012)

glut
Guest
glut

oil down under $95, oh shiet

regards
AB oil camp job janitor, commuting from Vcr Island

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

Oh ya… I started a new page with charts showing Monthly Absorption Rate and Months of Inventory for the 6 biggest Canadian cities:
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

Montreal appears to be an outlier confirmed also by the price series:
http://www.chpc.biz/canada_chart.html

lauderdale lakes emergency locksmith
Guest
lauderdale lakes emergency locksmith

I’m no longer positive where you’re getting your information, however great topic. I must spend some time learning more or working out more. Thanks for great info I was in search of this information for my mission.

VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work

1. “High home ownership linked to high unemployment
High levels of home ownership are strongly linked to subsequent rises in unemployment because labour mobility becomes reduced, according to new research.

Home ownership unwittingly impairs the labour market by deterring people from moving in search of work, a process that is time-consuming and expensive; long commuting times might also discourage a householder from taking a particular job, his research suggests.

Another theory is that home owners are opposed to new businesses opening up in their neighbourhoods – a phenomenon known in Britain as NIMBY, or Not In My Back Yard.

“This suggests that, without politicians being aware of it, high home ownership may slowly erode a country’s industrial base.”

2. Canada’s property market renews easy-money bubble fears

Saul Goodman
Guest
Saul Goodman
Here’s that lesson on getting around the 5% down government backed mortgage rule changes. Kudos on the use of air quotes regarding “investment property” as this guy does his best Saul Goodman impression. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYExdCm_fMo The governments of North America are out of ideas on how to grow the economy. The only “growth” game now is tapping into reckless money printing. In the US, 85 billion a month being printed to keep bond yields low. This money doesn’t know about the border. It will flow everywhere and rates will be lower in Canada too. The good news is that CMHC is also, in kind, still printing money and the cost of bankruptcy in Canada is very low. How many times can one go bankrupt before it causes permanent problems getting credit? Everone gets at least two bankruptcies before the “life event”… Read more »
No Noise
Guest
No Noise

@VMD

To really know what’s going on we need price data. Higher sales are to be expected with preapprovals expiring but also with dropping prices which is what I am seeing.

Saul Goodman
Guest
Saul Goodman
More lessons. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bankruptcy-claimant-protected-despite-spending-spree-1.1307463 She should move to BC and declare bankruptcy here. The goal is wealthy or bust and BC is the place to do it. She should get over her jealous moralizing about her previous fuck buddy blowing through money and using bankruptcy to skip the bill. The lesson she should take away is hide any cash and then get with the program. The government wants this sort of activity to goose the economy. If this outcome was not desirable, interest rates would be higher. She did get one thing right though. Shacking up with a fuck buddy in high a leverage home and using the combined pay stubs as surety for home equity credit is the place to start. Two people can generate more credit than one and that increases the available pool of properties that can be… Read more »
Saul Goodman
Guest
Saul Goodman

Public figures doing it right.

http://globalnews.ca/news/940773/rcmp-alleges-wallin-committed-fraud-breach-of-trust/

RCMP can make all the allegations they want. All that matters is that free money keeps coming and doesn’t have to be paid back.

So, if you lose a job that helping servicing the mortgages on your RE portfolio take heart from the example of public figures who stick to their story. Once you qualify for EI, stick to your story:

The correct answers for the standard Service Canada EI audit are “NO NO NO YES NO”.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOTK23QmWkQ

VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work

Speaking of Services Canada:
Oct 31, 2013:
Court grants request to bar sale of Richmond penthouse

– key words: Services Canada financial analyst, Richmond Penthouse, Drug bust, Mercedes GLK, ML350.

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

local boosters will tell you Vancouver is the best place on earth to retire because access to skiing skiing skiing but does vancouver have any activities where you won’t be cold and wet

Saul Goodman
Guest
Saul Goodman

@#20. Condo properties held back from the market indefinitely by judicial order of frozen crime proceeds is good for higher prices. Let’s hope this success emboldens BC authorities to come up with more invasive investigative tests having high false positive rates for drug activity which hold back still more Vancouver RE.

VPD and RCMP should get one of those drug residue testing machines from Border Services that gives false positive reading on every item tested.

http://natgeotv.com/ca/border-security

This is vaguely reminiscent of that “bomb detector” scam. Toy parts were adapted to make a credible looking technical device that was sold to governments as a “bomb detector”. From a Keynsian economist point of view it almost worked because it boosted public confidence, gave security minded busybodies something to do, and increased the payroll outlay.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2397903/Businessman-sold-useless-5-fake-bomb-detectors-10-000-jailed-seven-years-fraud.html

Melba
Guest
Melba

….This is vaguely reminiscent of that “bomb detector” scam. Toy parts were adapted to make a credible looking technical device that was sold to governments as a “bomb detector”. From a Keynsian economist point of view it almost worked because it boosted public confidence, gave security minded busybodies something to do, and increased the payroll outlay.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2397903/Businessman-sold-useless-5-fake-bomb-detectors-10-000-jailed-seven-years-fraud.html….

They should have jailed the idiots who were stupid enough to purchase the detectors without testing them first.

Saul Goodman
Guest
Saul Goodman

@#23. I’m sure they were promoted. Even if a decisionmaker knows they have a bad hand, their adversaries both inside and outside the organization don’t know that. A credible looking and highly visible bomb detecting device based on unknown principles operated by government officials at every checkpoint would tend to have a deterrent effect on the widespread movement of vehicle bombs if everybody believes the detector might do something.

hey buddy
Guest
hey buddy

is it ok for a Real Estate company to set up shop in a Charter Bank?

i walk into the bank today, and the RE guy is promoting the banks Real Estate newsletter. ’10 questions asked by first time home buyers’

isn’t there suppose to be a separation between these two entities? If so, i didn’t see it today…

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