We’re a little late and lacking with this posting.
Please cut us some slack, we were replacing our doorknobs with levers and got trapped in the bathroom.
-links will end up here
But what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
(please limit external links to one per comment to keep your contribution from being held up in moderation)
Ham Solo
I have some historical BC foreclosure data. Would like to collaborate with you. Please contact me equityval at yahoo
Thanks
@FF I’m the wrong person to ask. I moved here from the States in 2006 and, at that point, I expected corrections both north and south of the border. But even in 2006, renting was a better deal, so I went with the better deal. If I had been better at predicting the future, my paper net worth would be higher. That said, if you specifically want to take the money you have now, and put it into RE after a correction, then I would think that you should have it in something that will not go down in price in the event of an external shock, such as an economic crisis in China or higher interest rates in the States. Things like GICs come to mind, but other fixed-income options are safe too. I don’t see an easy way… Read more »
@N
What would be your estimated timeline on a return to a price/rent relationship that represents a reasonable buying opportunity in the Lower Mainland?
One of my concerns is that a major market event, which would result in a significant loss on our current investment vehicles, would also result in a significant pullback in Vancouver house prices. I don’t want to end up in situation where the buying metrics are where I need them, but I’m waiting for the markets to recover so I don’t have to take a substantial loss on our current portfolio.
I feel like we’ll eventually see a buying opportunity in this market. The million dollar question is what’s our timeline, and where should we put our money until them?
You know the wind is changing when even the Start is talking about it.
“The low interest rate trap of the past five years still holds global sway. Is there a new bubble forming?”
“…Chinese property prices have risen so high that rents aren’t covering carrying costs.”
(Wow, scary! Good thing that craziness is only happening in China.)
“The odds are that the world is experiencing a bigger bubble than the one that unleashed the 2008 global financial crisis. When the real interest rate becomes positive again, this vast bubble will burst.”
(Ya think?)
“Just look at the realtors who are buying. Some cannot even speak English”
That’s either laziness or a marketing ploy to convince their target market things are “exclusive”. Some of the platitudes I hear and read about Vancouver real estate comes across as fulfilling certain world views, not least the decline of Western influence in global economics. Selling this view to homeowners must be uplifting and profitable.
Vancouver had the perfect storm. the same forces of low interest rates, CMHC BS and industry manipulation that every other Canadian city had, but we do have a large inflow of non-resident Mainland Chinese cash. Just look at the realtors who are buying. Some cannot even speak English and are their web-sites market to China in Mandarin. To deny the last factor is bury your head in the sand. It is what it is.
@100: Ley said Chinese migration was “undoubtedly” a driving force at the top end of the market in premier districts. But this also had a trickle-down effect. He has this completely backwards. RE markets are supported from the bottom, by entry level buyers, and RE busts happen when this supply of new buyers dries up. Ley said he was surprised there had been no “political pushback” against the effect that various Canadian immigration schemes had had on Vancouver’s property market.” There is no “pushback” because most voters are homeowners who want RE prices to remain as high as possible. And in any case, the “experts”, including Dr. Ley, are unwilling to point out that the Canadian RE bubble is a direct result of federal government policy to inflate RE prices through mortgage guarantees. He is just as big a jackass… Read more »
@99:
For crying out loud, the RE industry has been staging fake “news” stories about Chinese buyers, without any kind of sanctions, and you’re claiming that somehow people aren’t allowed to talk about Chinese ownership?
mayor (Robinson) claimed Mainland Chinese people have nothing to do with Vancouver’s record-breaking property prices.
He’s right. It’s local idiots enabled by government policy.
Dr. David Ley is a well-respected academic who has been at UBC for many years. Is David Ley racist because of these comments?:
“Dr David Ley, a geographer at the University of British Columbia, said 300 sq ft apartments were among a range of “compromises” dictated by high prices.
Ley said Chinese migration was “undoubtedly” a driving force at the top end of the market in premier districts. But this also had a trickle-down effect.
“Anecdotally, [those who sell in Vancouver West] are moving into suburban areas, Langley, Burnaby, Tsawwassen, Ladner. So there are effects in those markets too,” he said.
Ley said he was surprised there had been no “political pushback” against the effect that various Canadian immigration schemes had had on Vancouver’s property market.”
Why is that they can talk about Chinese ownership of Hong Kong real estate but we can’t talk about the same thing when it comes to Vancouver real estate? Does Hong Kong have more free speech and more open democracy than Canada? Is Ian Young in Hong Kong a racist? From the Vancouver Sun: “Unlike in Metro Vancouver, Young says, Hong Kong newspapers run front-page stories almost daily about the fast-rising non-resident purchases of Hong Kong properties. And most of the Hong Kong media coverage zeroes in on the effects of wealthy Mainland Chinese buying up so many Hong Kong condos and houses. Young, an investigative reporter for The South China Morning Post, has been breaking significant stories about similar stratospheric rises in housing prices here in Metro Vancouver. This week Young was picking up on Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson’s… Read more »
Jesse:
Indeed rents are rising. I visited a few pacts this weekend and you only get crap for lower prices. The good rental units are all taken.
Regardless of how people perceive the above fact, rents are rising fast and like you said, this will correct the price to rent ratio somewhat.
It will also help the thousand of homeowners with rental suites.
I am concerned though for families that are currently renting… It will go up.
Canada’s CPI is basically a fixed-weighted Laspeyres index that is updated in weights every two years. There’s a good video explaining the basics of Laspeyres here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFituwiUFXU
NHPI is also calculated using Laspeyres with quality adjustments. Another inaccurate index like the rest of them.
The article is year old still an interesting read
Living large with Mom and Dad
http://www.thegridto.com/life/finance/living-large-with-mom-and-dad/
News on Canada’s real estate market from China’s CCTV: “Canadian Housing Market Losing Steam”
The rental bidding wars are interesting, no doubt that should cause inflation to rise all else equal. In Vancouver rents have outpaced inflation recently but that was not the case 5-15 years ago. Recent strength is interesting, it has the effect of correcting price-rent a few years quicker than would have otherwise been the case.
Naming Problem Says:
Interesting to see how all those concerns about condo overbuilding in Toronto will shake out into the rental scene
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Real Estate Cheat Sheet: what the experts are predicting for Toronto’s housing market in 2014
@88 SOP: Those articles about rental bidding wars are from Toronto.
Haven’t seen the same thing here on the west coast, the rental market seems fairly slow here lately.
Interesting to see how all those concerns about condo overbuilding in Toronto will shake out into the rental scene.
And today in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post: “Vancouver eyes ‘micro-suites’ as Chinese buy up mansions”
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1223121/vancouver-eyes-micro-suites-mainlanders-buy-mansions
Son of Ponzi Says:
My Landlord just offered us a 4 year extension on our lease, with no increase in rent.What bidding wars?
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I am just putting a link to the news article that got to do it with housing .Those article doesn’t represent my opinions unless i say something (see the post #83)
I am happy that you have good landlord who want to keep you.
Vancouver Sun: “In Hong Kong, Metro Vancouver real estate is big news” by Douglas Todd
“Ian Young, an East Asian journalist writing for a Hong Kong newspaper, covers real estate issues in Metro Vancouver with a rare kind of intensity and frankness.”
“Young dug up information that suggested 75 per cent of Metro Vancouver homes in one year were sold to Mainland Chinese”
Snake,
My Landlord just offered us a 4 year extension on our lease, with no increase in rent.
What bidding wars?
Rental condos new bidding-war battleground
Country singer has trouble selling Cdn dream home have reduced the asking price for their Ottawa home
http://globalnews.ca/news/987287/carrie-underwood-mike-fisher-reduce-asking-price-for-ottawa-home/
No vacancy
Tough luck, apartment hunters: The city’s insatiable demand for rental units has outstripped supply, putting landlords on top and sending rent prices skyrocketing
Before and After: a professional renovator revamps