October 2013: Vancouver house prices stalled out.

After last years abysmally low number of home sales, some people will be glad to know that sales have climbed.

Unfortunately that hasn’t done anything for prices.

The REBGV has released their october stats package and the composite benchmark price for all properties has actually dropped slightly from where it was a year ago, dipping a tiny half a percentage point.

The Province see this as a big rebound for the most expensive real estate market in Canada.

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VanRant
Member
VanRant

We’ve been seeing sub 100 sales for the last 3 of the 4 sales day. Let the crash continue.

sequel
Guest
sequel
the sequel link on the previous thread is worth a critique first off, you’ve got the example of people making $50,000 buying RE, but just be a whisker. I’m sure just about any of us can do this chicks job for half the salary. Second example is a guy that works at the former Woodward building.. anyone see the irony in this? Here you’ve got a person making good dough performing social work to homeless types, who in turn is buying real estate (and a mortgage)..This is not the first time i see this irony. In fact you see it everywhere. Civil Servant types making their ‘career’ out off the homelessness industry, presenting a Conflict of Interest by, in turn, buying RE, or more specifically, chaining themselves to a mortgage, and co-opting themselves to the status quo. Third example is… Read more »
Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

The province makes me cringe.
I feel a little dumber whenever I look at it.

jesse
Member
In terms of estimating November sales levels, one analytical approach is to take the average change in November sales from October and apply it to this October’s value to “predict” November sales this year. Since 1999 November sales/working-day have averaged 93% of October’s. October 2013’s sales/working-day was 121. That means November 2013 would be estimated at 113, or monthly total of 2264. You can argue how November this year will be better or worse than past years if you like, and certainly it’s possible this year will see November sales worse due to rate holds from the spring petering out. It looks like prices are weaker this year because there is a combination of high inventory and muted (though recently historically average) sales. The correlation between months of inventory and price changes is high, above 0.8. MOI has “flatlined” at… Read more »
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

“stalled out”? does that mean prices aren’t going up and aren’t going down either? they are going sideways?

so it’s a soft landing? we know that every bubble is followed by a crash. since we are experiencing a soft landing we know there was never a bubble.

condos have been experiencing a soft landing for how long? where is softy?

jesse
Member
From the previous thread: “I’m not claiming that HAM is a primary driver of the market but it is definitely not negligible or immaterial and anyone who denies the impact that it has on local markets will be confounded by the how, why and who when things start to unravel.” “Hot money” (not just HAM, this is a common refrain in many cities worldwide and not limited to immigrants/nationals from Asia) does affect prices, it is self-evident that if a source of capital is involved in setting market price it necessarily affects it, and in some specific areas this will be more apparent than others. The complaint many raise with the “hot money is driving up prices” argument is that it’s unclear foreign capital creates enough scarcity that drives up prices for everyone region-wide. If scarcity were occurring then real… Read more »
Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

A month back, I predicted that September 2013 will be the last hurrah for RE in Vancouver.
Turns out, I’m only a month out.

sunny day in vancouver
Guest
sunny day in vancouver

what, still no crash?
havent bears learnt already that pipelines, and LNG will become the golden eggs of this best place on earth? bears live in heaven and they dont know how to appreciate it.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Folks, it’s simple.
If one HAM buys a teardown for 1 mil, then builds a McMansion and sells it to another HAM for 2 mil,
The HPI for that property will have increased by 100%.
Even if there is only a small fraction of transactions like this, average HPI will be severely distorted to the upside side.

patriotz
Member

@8: “havent bears learnt already that pipelines, and LNG will become the golden eggs of this best place on earth?”

How many people will these employ in Metro Vancouver? The city has oil and gas pipelines from the Interior and an oil terminal right now, how many people do they employ?

Where do you think the head office jobs will be? (Hint: where are the head office jobs now?)

Many Franks
Member

@Son of Ponzi: “The HPI for that property” is an oxymoron. “The upside side” is redundant. The rest of what you wrote doesn’t make much sense either.

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

you’ll notice immigrants to America are educated and work at companies like Boeing and Lockheed Martin …..while immigrants to Vancouver are all low skilled, looking for handouts here to collect welfare cheque’s and free healthcare, Vancouver really is different

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Frankie,
It makes sense if you realize that the market is made up of single transactions and the prices are set at the margin.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi
Thanks Garth. Re : #171 nemesis comment. Comment 180 on the current Garth Turner’s thread. A view of offshore money of All Kinds was made very evident to me last few weeks. It relates to this article and the above comment between Nemesis & Garth. Client I was working with was Not mainland HK, and not in the “medical field”, but sophisticated , and indicated that bringing money into the country via ever escalating real estate was easy! Call the bank for funds transfer, Buy a $3 mill vancouver property , renovate to an astounding level, say $2 million and growing, and then sell to another client, or your own offshore company for $5. Bathrooms had $40 k in glass walls! 200sq foot master shower, Ouch! Even if they lose 10% , it’s the cost of business, I was told.… Read more »
neverywhere
Guest
neverywhere

Regarding HAM, it seems like all we have are endless anecdotes.

Off the top of my head I can think of two verifiable HAM stories in the local media:

1. Free helicopter rides to wealth asian investors to view white rock from the air. Huh, turns out these were all local realtors, not actually HAM.

2. Wealthy Chinese Sisters who were shopping for a condo in Vancouver for their parents to buy them. Huh, turns out they were actual local real estate marketers, not sisters after all.

You’d think that if this was such a huge factor the local marketers wouldn’t have to construct such clumsy fake stories.

neverywhere
Guest
neverywhere

SOP: no offense, but wealthy people buy big expensive houses, like they always have. What’s this got to do with the price of a leaky condo in fairview?

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

# 16
Leaky condo in fairview is a loss leader in the store called RE Vancouver.

mac
Member
mac

The vast majority here Ponzi won’t believe you. That’s why their calculations don’t add up. We’re reverting to mean + laundered money.

mac
Member
mac

Lang & O’Leary on TV right now… O’Leary says the consensus is that prices will not fall but stall for 5 to 10 years. Although, I’m not sure he’s right, he’s pretty confident despite Lang’s anxious-looking face trying to box him in a corner with ‘You wouldn’t call fire in a theatre.’ He also hedges his respect by saying young people should wait 5-10 before buying. Why would they bother? If interest rates go up, prices will too. If they stay flat, they’re paying their landlord’s mortgage? He’s all over the place.

mac
Member
mac

Poor Amanda Lang. I can hear them still bickering in the background. It’s like a bad marriage where both have to stay in for financial reasons.

kabloona
Member
kabloona

Lang and O’Bleary…. flip sides of the same coin. Both shilling for the 1-percenters on the taxpayer’s dime.

Hey Amanda…whatever happened with your bogus “skills shortage” argument….??

😉

Ray
Member
Ray

After nearly 11 years on and off the market (mostly on), 3810 Marine Drive sold today for $8,300,000, a good price for a waterfront lot with 400+ ft of frontage. However, when you consider that this property was listed for $37,900,000 back in January of this year, then a different story emerges. That’s a $29,600,000 price reduction! That has to be some kind of record…

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

Marine drive in beautiful world-class Vancouver bc or Cliffside Drive in un-worldclass Malibu California….where would u rather live? (Los Angeles is not super world-class and super livable like vancouver)

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi
Interesting sparing much over at GT’s blog. http://qz.com/143017/beijing-goes-hunting-for-overseas-real-estate-by-corrupt-officials/ Toronto and Vancouver get mentioned. Garth, I don’t know why you think Chinese real estate investment isn’t much of an issue. It’s pretty obvious that our taxation and government are based on the assumption that a prime urban house costing x is inhabited by a family that can afford it (whether owning or renting, in which case the landlord should be earning a return), is paying income taxes on that income (or did when it was earned) and is spending an amount commensurate with that lifestyle in the local community. Tales abound of high end households with no local primary breadwinner, or abodes which are vacant for most of the year. And it’s obvious that every downtown condo that is owned but not occupied, there’s someone working downtown who can’t live nearby,… Read more »
Johnny-boy
Guest
Johnny-boy

Wow

Son of Ponzi. Everyone needs to read that link

Especially the +HAM deniers.

We need a judge like the UK judge here. If you cannot prove HOW you can afford it it, you lose it!

http://qz.com/143017/beijing-goes-hunting-for-overseas-real-estate-by-corrupt-officials/

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