FFFA! Renting, Towers, Market, Bubble, Depreciation

Well looky here!

You made it to the end of another work week!

And that means on this particular website that it’s Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Can the media predict a bubble?
EI numbers up 10% in BC
Is ‘Depreciation’ a dirty word?
Signs of overbuilding?
Toronto prices to double in 25 years
Get drunk with the kids
Put your face on a bus stop
The cheese loophole
Not pasta sauce, the Eiffel Tower
Is US housing set for another crash?

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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ILoveCharts
Guest
ILoveCharts
2 years 4 months ago
Xhdh
Guest
Xhdh
2 years 4 months ago

@1: haha, it’s like a time machine, only 30 years ago you’d replace the word ‘china’ with the word ‘japan’.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck
2 years 4 months ago

Have a good holiday weekend everyone.

We will battle after the 25th.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck
2 years 4 months ago

ILoveCharts:

To that link to the story you provided I say WOW!

If anyone still denies HAM after reading that then….

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside
2 years 4 months ago

in Vancouver hope the rich kids like the cold rain and general lack of anything to do,

while some poorer kids are stuck at Orange County beaches or hanging out at Times Square

Many Franks
Member
2 years 4 months ago
Will Dunning’s out with some bearish predictions: Vancouver’s real estate market faces a rough ride in the coming years, says a new report from Royal LePage. The report foresees a dark period for Vancouver housing due to factors such as low job creation, rising interest rates and changes to federal mortgage policy. “The Vancouver housing market is clearly in a state of transition, from an environment of very rapid growth of house prices to a period in which price growth will provide much less impetus to housing demand … and to job creation,” the report by market economist Will Dunning… Read more »
Loon
Guest
Loon
2 years 4 months ago

@Ilovecharts

LOLd my pants, what are they teaching the kids back home ?:

“Most schools are recruiting [Chinese] students for whom the difference between a $20,000 and a $40,000 education is a rounding error,” Krommenhoek says.

N
Guest
N
2 years 4 months ago
Everyone has been asking for a chance to short Canadian housing. Well, here it is folks! “Investors in Canada are to get the chance to bet against their own real estate market as one of the first short-focused funds is set to launch in the country, where concerns have grown that there is a housing bubble ready to burst.” ““The thesis behind the fund is that the Canadian housing market is one of the most overvalued in the world,” said Mr Brown. “A lot of things people observed in the US in the run-up to 2007-8 crisis are happening here.”… Read more »
Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 months ago

# 8
the simplest form to short Canadian housing, particularly in Vancouvsr, is to rent.

patriotz
Member
2 years 4 months ago

@9:

Renting is not a short position. If you rent in a building owned by a REIT are you short the REIT?

@8:

“Investors in Canada are to get the chance to bet against their own real estate market”

Which is not the same as selling short. In a short sale you are making a bet against the buyer of the actual asset.

This fund provides the opportunity for RE bears to bet against RE bulls. But you need both sides of the bet. If no bulls are willing to take a position there will be no positions available to the bears.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 months ago

I’m renting until house prices have fallen to a point were I’ll buy again.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander
2 years 4 months ago
Now you can invest in the coming housing slump. If you’re a wealthy investor. “The hard-landing hedge fund: A new way to bet against housing”, Globe & Mail http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-hard-landing-hedge-fund-a-new-way-to-bet-against-housing/article16063936/ “A Toronto financial firm is creating a hedge fund that will allow Canadian investors to bet on a housing slump, a move that underscores the skepticism that exists about policy makers’ ability to engineer a soft landing for the real estate market.” ““I think it’s a tough slog going forward,” said Michael Brown, the portfolio manager of the new fund at Spartan… “It may not be a fall of 50 per… Read more »
Softy
Guest
Softy
2 years 4 months ago

Ok, so all you bears should take the proftis you have made in stocks and saved by not owning and plow it into this product. Put your money where your mouth is and bet against housing.

How confident are you that there will not be a soft landing?

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander
2 years 4 months ago

‘Cause it’s a hedge fund, and they are limited to very wealthy investors, not common folk like us.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander
2 years 4 months ago
More bubble talk; CBC, “Why a housing bubble is good (but maybe bad for you)” http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/why-a-housing-bubble-is-good-but-maybe-bad-for-you-1.2470614 “We’ve had another year of foreboding on global property prices from very respectable sources. New homes in big Chinese cities are up another 20 per cent despite attempts by the government to cool the market. In London, prices are rising at six times the rate of inflation. Even Mark Carney, the Canadian-born head of the Bank of England, can’t keep a lid on it. Canada comes in for special treatment. The latest of the doomsayers, Deutsche Bank, said in a Scrooge-like pre-Christmas superlative that… Read more »
i have become vaguely numb
Guest
i have become vaguely numb
2 years 4 months ago

http://www.investing.com/analysis/2013:-10-shocking-charts-196557

There are only seven oilfields in the world that produce one million barrels per day (bpd) or more of oil. Three of them are now in the United States – the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford and the Bakken.

http://english.pravda.ru/business/finance/17-12-2013/126406-oil_market_collapse-0/

The expectations of some Russians and foreign experts are similar, but their goals are different. “People heard something vague about the so-called “Dutch disease…”

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley
2 years 4 months ago
Real Estate is a good investment if it produces an acceptable yield. That’s the rub eh? (for instance property taxes in Vancouver are going up 1.9% in 2014) Bloomberg has a graphic out that shows Blackstone’s model and I notice if I have done the math correctly that their income statement allows for 58% of gross income to allocate to the expense side before debt service and that includes a 10% vacancy rate: http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/12/buy-low-sell-high.html My May 2013 Vancouver Condo Study in its most conservative scenario allocated only 39% of gross income before debt service: http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/05/vancouver-condo-yield-case-study.html I wonder what real Vancouver… Read more »
patriotz
Member
2 years 4 months ago

@12: “Mr. Brown declined to discuss specific trades, but the fund will short stocks or other securities in a bet that their values will fall. He said he’s looking at financial companies, insurers, real estate and consumer firms.”

So the fund is actually going to short stocks whose performance they think is tied to RE.

UBC in crisis mode
Guest
UBC in crisis mode
2 years 4 months ago
From MoneyGeek.com Housing Market Update If you’re like most young professionals, you either own, or dream of owning a home one day. On every half month update, we’ll provide you with news and commentary that relates to the housing market. Below are November’s changes in the Teranet House Price Index (reproduced with permission). The index gauges the state of the housing market. (Region): (Change since last month), (Change since last year) National Average: -0.1%, +3.4% Calgary: -0.3%, +5.9% Edmonton: -0.2%, +3.0% Halifax: +0.6%, +0.8% Hamilton: +0.3%, +5.2% Montreal: -0.6%, +0.8% Ottawa: -0.2%, +1.2% Quebec: -0.2%, +3.7% Toronto: -0.2%, +4.2% Vancouver:… Read more »
JoJo
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JoJo
2 years 4 months ago

The Vancouver Peak post about the new building on Bidwell needing to stoop to rentals has incorrect info. Rentals were always part of the plan, which was as a “mixed-use development
containing rental and condominium housing and at-grade commercial uses”.

http://former.vancouver.ca/ctyclerk/cclerk/20091103/documents/p3.pdf

Skook
Guest
Skook
2 years 4 months ago

Hey JoJo, Re: #20

Why not head to VanPeak and post that info as a ‘Reply’ in the thread. VanPeak is a forum and its wide-open for yours and everyone’s comments regarding anything you read there.

Jenna
Guest
Jenna
2 years 4 months ago

Can’t wait for RE to crash. The municipal governments are making a killing with siatung property values. Wait until prices go down. Mayors are going to be crying.

paulb
Member
2 years 4 months ago

New Listings 68
Price Changes 23
Sold Listings 88
TI:13297

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Snake
Guest
Snake
2 years 4 months ago
N
Guest
N
2 years 4 months ago

@ Jenna 22

Actually, assessed property values only influence what share of the total property taxes a given property will pay. If your house is worth two million and my house is worth one million. Then you pay, say, two thousand bucks and I pay one thousand. If there is a crash and your house is now worth one million, while mine is worth only half a million, you will still pay two thousand and I will still pay one thousand.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth
2 years 4 months ago

Christmass is almost here, and you people are so sad! what happened? your mamas dont give you milk anymore?

Johnny-boy
Guest
Johnny-boy
2 years 4 months ago

Two hefty HAM buys in West Van today. Combined 13 big ones. Just in time to juice the averages for December. Bless their souls, they probably wanted something special to put under the Christmas tree.

Bailing in BC
Member
2 years 4 months ago

God bless them, everyone!

crikey
Guest
crikey
2 years 4 months ago

@N # 25
“assessed property values only influence what share of the total property taxes a given property will pay.”

Thank you for pointing this out, N. So many people out there simply understand this.

In a given year, the city calculates how many dollars they have to make from property taxes; generally speaking it is from this number it is determined what everybody’s property tax will be. The relative amount that you and your neighbour pay will stay proportionally the same… but how much higher or lower your property assessment changes (assuming the city is changing with you) does not matter.

Snake
Guest
Snake
2 years 4 months ago

Vancouver sex-trade help group receives city funding

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2013/12/19/vancouver-sex-trade-help-group-receives-city-funding
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I wish they pay me to send me on sex trips

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 months ago

#27
please provide more information about the properties.
Thank you.

Snake
Guest
Snake
2 years 4 months ago

Interesting Foreclosure in vancouver

1)Condo for $1 million – 2202 1495 RICHARDS ST
http://www.carros.ca/listings/mls/V1039385/vancouver-west/yaletown/2202-1495-richards-st

2)House for 2.5 million – 6188 ALMA ST

http://www.carros.ca/listings/mls/V1039384/vancouver-west/southlands/6188-alma-st

3)Condo for $4.8 million – 601 499 DRAKE ST
Looks like it sold for $3,900,000 seven years ago

http://www.soprovich.com/home1255.html

Snake
Guest
Snake
2 years 4 months ago

Anybody know what’s going with these houses in Richmond looks like lots of foreclose on this street ?

http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/search?q=Scratchley+Crescent

3411 SCRATCHLEY CR
3431 SCRATCHLEY CR
3451 SCRATCHLEY CR
3471 SCRATCHLEY CR
3491 SCRATCHLEY CR

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside
2 years 4 months ago

everybody wants to live in Vancouver because of the outdoor activities or something,
icey cold rain and 3pm sunsets never stop a proud vancouver from golfing and boating in the same day

Bo Xilai
Guest
Bo Xilai
2 years 4 months ago
Johnny-boy
Guest
Johnny-boy
2 years 4 months ago

Chinese Stock market weakens and the Bank of China pours Billions into Banks after hours. How much will end up here?

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1203&MainCatID=12&id=20131221000013

Jenna
Guest
Jenna
2 years 4 months ago

N and crikey are you Realtor?

crikey
Guest
crikey
2 years 4 months ago
@Jenna #37: Wow, and what did I do to insult you? 😉 First of all, I don’t use the term you used. Let’s call that profession what it is: Used House Salesperson The title they want you to use (which you use) is an attempt to improve the optics of the mundane job that it is their reality, and a way to inflate their egos and hope the public follows along. To be sure, candy sprinkles on top of shiat should still be called what it is: shiat. If used car salespeople insisted on being called “Vehiculors”, not only would… Read more »
Snake
Guest
Snake
2 years 4 months ago
Debbie Cox . But when it rains hard, the smell of sewage outside her home has sometimes been overwhelming.She gave away her garden furniture because it kept sinking into the mud in her backyard. Her water pipes, buried too close to the surface, have frozen in very cold weather. Mrs. Cox paid about $255,000 for her semi detached house in 2005 doubts she could get more than $95,000 for her property today. Debbie Cox have been renting for about $500 a month, while she pays about $1,100 a month just for her mortgage. It’s been such a huge disappointment,” she… Read more »
YVR
Guest
YVR
2 years 4 months ago
Softy: “How confident are you that there will not be a soft landing?” I actually hope there is a soft landing. Softy I hope you understand even with a ‘soft landing’ real estate prices are going down to meet fundamentals. The only difference between a soft landing and a hard landing is a soft landing avoids a recession in the general economy. The fact there is a landing required means prices are significantly above where they should be and are about to go lower. If you own real estate it does not matter whether there is a recession caused by… Read more »
patriotz
Member
2 years 4 months ago

@40: ” The only difference between a soft landing and a hard landing is a soft landing avoids a recession in the general economy. ”

Well the closest we’ve seen to a “soft landing” in a major economy is Japan and that just resulted in a longer recession.

The more people who buy at excessive prices, the more the long term damage.

Skook
Guest
Skook
2 years 4 months ago
@Bo Xilai #35 @Snake #39 That New York Times article is an amazing read especially when viewed in light of a BBC online story posted on two days ago on the 19th. The NYT piece hints at that BBC story with: “Not all the news about Ireland’s real estate market is bad. As Ireland becomes the first euro zone country to officially emerge from an international bailout program later this month, experts say that demand for homes is up in Dublin, particularly for houses in certain neighborhoods.” The BBC piece, title ‘Irish GDP growth helped by construction, figures show’ offers… Read more »
crikey
Guest
crikey
2 years 4 months ago
@YVR #40 “The only difference between a soft landing and a hard landing is a soft landing avoids a recession in the general economy.” In theory wouldn’t a soft landing be a very long and drawn out process, as opposed to a quick hard landing? Real estate industry people should in fact pray for a hard landing, because it would at least be over quickly and they could start their brainwashing attempts on the general public again before long By comparison, a long and drawn out mult-year (decade long?) process will cement more strongly into the public perception the fact… Read more »
N
Guest
N
2 years 4 months ago

@ Jenna,

I’m just a curious observer of the madness that surrounds me.

Snake
Guest
Snake
2 years 4 months ago

North Vancouver RCMP have arrested two people accused of misappropriating funds while working at an apartment rental agency.

https://www.google.ca/search?q=Unique+Real+Estate+Accommodations+Inc.+of+North+Vancouver&oq=Unique+Real+Estate+Accommodations+Inc.+of+North+Vancouver&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8#es_sm=122&espv=210&q=Unique+Real+Estate+Accommodations+Inc.+of+North+Vancouver&tbm=nws

Snake
Guest
Snake
2 years 4 months ago

Vancouver man receives “random act of kindness” after encounter with homeless man

http://globalnews.ca/news/1044621/vancouver-man-receives-random-act-of-kindness-after-encounter-with-homeless-man/
——————————
we need more stories like this coming from Vancouver

jesse
Member
2 years 4 months ago

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25476662
A Chinese billionaire is feared dead in a helicopter crash that happened as he was surveying his newly-purchased vineyard in south-west France.

Occupational hazard for those who might be called “Cam”

noname
Guest
noname
2 years 4 months ago

another christmas in rental for all chart and graph experts. meanwhile, vhb and vreaa probably cheer each other in their own homes.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck
2 years 4 months ago

Fundamentals:

In the sub $600,000 Vancouver market, the only “fundamental” that matters to people is the monthly payment amount.

If they can afford it, they will buy.

And the Bank of Canada’s hands are now tied and in solidified concrete with respect to any interest rate hikes in the next 5-10 years.

N
Guest
N
2 years 4 months ago

@49

Do you understand that, even if the BoC leaves rates where they are, mortgage rates are set by the bond market?

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