Friday free-for-all!

You know what time it is?

Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

-links to come!

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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popgoesthebubble

What do people think of the US Fed announcing the tapering of stimulus? Will it impact our economy and housing, eventually?
.

total_confusion

@miguel: here’s a link in support of your statement about Japanese housing:

http://www.archdaily.com/450212/why-japan-is-crazy-about-housing/

Some pretty crazy/hilarious stuff in there.

miguel

Houses in Japan actually rapidly depreciate like consumer durable goods – cars, fridges, golf clubs, etc. After 15 years, a home typically loses all value and is demolished on average just 30 years after being built. According to a paper by the Nomura Research Institute, this is a major ‘obstacle to affluence’ for Japanese families. Collectively, the write-off equates to an annual loss of 4% of Japan’s total GDP, not to mention mountains of construction waste.

patriotz

@93: “History is the best guide, and its lesson could hardly be clearer. Japan cut its interest rates to 0.5% all the way back in September 1995. Nearly two decades later, they still haven’t gone back up again”

So how much of your Japanese history lesson is relevant to Canada? For starters, Japan has run a current account surplus over that entire period.

Maybe what’s relevant is Japanese house prices haven’t gone back up again, either.

tedeastside

people who come to vancouver from other parts of canada always comment how people in vancouver are so shady and dishonest ,
i tell them vancouver has no economic base or industry so that’s why everybody’s a hustler in Vancouver, drugs, welfare fraud and slumlords is what drives vancouver’s economy

Reality Check

Psychology changes YVR??

Go to

1) London England
2) Phoenix
Etc.

Psychology change there? No boom times are back in a big way. Try to find a nice detached for less than a million in North Scottsdale. Its boom time again.

Reality Check

YVR:

You’re funny.

You think move up buyers are buying $2-3 Million dollar homes?…”Oh honey, let’s move up from our $1 Million home to a $2 Million one”.

Increase in monthly payment by $5000+.

Real funny.

Snake
Snake

Rich Don’t Pay Most of the Taxes (They Pay All of Them); Reflections on the “Almost Rich

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/12/rich-dont-pay-most-of-taxes-they-pay.html#dJqJi4tIq18bR8pI.99

Snake

History is the best guide, and its lesson could hardly be clearer. Japan cut its interest rates to 0.5% all the way back in September 1995. Nearly two decades later, they still haven’t gone back up again. Nor will they any time soon — in fact, the Bank of Japan keeps on chucking more and more stimulus at the economy.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/central-banks-will-move-goal-posts-to-keep-qe-forever-2013-12-11?pagenumber=2

Snake

Job creation in Canada this year has been the weakest in a non-recession year in more than a decade, and the low quality of the jobs being created is causing some economists to raise concerns about the country’s economy.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/12/11/job-market-canada-2013_n_4421034.html

Snake
Snake

For the first time in more than a decade, Vancouver will reinstate a yearly tradition by ringing in the New Year with a fully-inclusive and family-friendly countdown celebration to midnight. Held in downtown Vancouver, NYE VAN will be a free, public event next year on December 31, 2014 that will include live music, multicultural programming and entertainment, and fireworks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uS72JCaxQk#t=13

YVR

@84 “Having said that, if there is a technical correction of 20%, buyers will come roaring back. Its in our nature in the Vancouver area to buy. Everyone here would buy at the right price.” The problem is after it corrects 20% a large portion of current home owners have negative equity or no equity which means there are no move up buyers regardless of how much they want to buy. Condo prices have been flat for 5 years. Factoring in transaction costs anyone who didn’t put 30% down (almost all condo purchasers over the past 5 years) can’t sell and move up the property ladder. Without move up buyers the market is toast. Then add in the psychology of buying after a 20% correction. The real estate only goes up psychology changes in a hurry after a 20% correction.… Read more »

Snake

VANCOUVER VS. BEVERLY HILLS: WHAT $4.89-MILLION WILL BUY IN REAL ESTATE

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2013/12/vancouver-vs-beverly-hills-what-4-89-million-will-buy-in-real-estate/

Snake
Snake
Snake

1)My Cyprus mortgage repayments went up by 166pc’
Thousands of British investors who were mis-sold property in Cyprus face devastating losses. The Wilkinsons’ repayments went from £300 to £800

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/10516732/My-Cyprus-mortgage-repayments-went-up-by-166pc.html

2)Great housing divide widens as prices in London soar by 40% while homes elsewhere tumble by 20%

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2524053/Great-housing-divide-widens-prices-London-soar-40-cent-homes-tumble-20-cent.html#ixzz2ni9335V7

3)Flaherty to savers: You’re on your own with CPP as it stands

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/flaherty-to-savers-youre-on-your-own-with-cpp-as-it-stands/article15992007/

Softy

“it is interesting to see the sales “strength” continue this far into December (Fixed rates started rising in early-mid June, plateauing in August. A 120 day rate-hold in late July would expire by late November.”

I would not call it “interesting”, I would call it contradictory. It is inconsistent the rate-hold-buyer theory

Is it the perceived (and well-broadcasted) return of “hot market” pushing the last believers of “buy now or be priced out forever” crowd into the market? Or will this be an actual sustained rally?

It has already been a sustained rally. It began in February/March 2013, prior to any hint of rising rates.

Softy

“It is without doubt that 2013 second half’s “hotter” sales #s were buoyed by the expiring rate-hold phenomenon”

There is reason to doubt this. The hot market began in February – March 2013, well before any whiff of rate rate increases. The strength continued and people who like to look for a cause chose the “rate-hold-buyer” theory. But that does not correlate to the start of the hot market.

The more likely reason is simply demand for real estate, even at super-high prices. The demand just came back. That’s all.

Reality Check

One angryslav:

I didn’t say Vancouver real estate won’t Go down. I said the world is awash in money.

Having said that, if there is a technical correction of 20%, buyers will come roaring back. Its in our nature in the Vancouver area to buy. Everyone here would buy at the right price.

Its not likely that if the market crashed in Vancouver that prices woukd remain permannetly low. They will roar back.

VMD

If current December sales trend continue, then we’re looking at ~+66% sales gain vs 2012, but +2.2% vs 10 year Avg. (Dec/12 was -40% vs 10 yr avg). (worth noting Jul/12 was when Flaherty last tightened CMHC rules) Sales Dec 2013 ~1899 2012 1142 2011 1658 2010 1899 2009 2515 2008 924 2007 1897 2006 1686 2005 2332 2004 2065 2003 2434 10Y Avg 1855.2 It is without doubt that 2013 second half’s “hotter” sales #s were buoyed by the expiring rate-hold phenomenon (confirmed by Bank of Canada, TD, Scotiabank, and CIBC). The question now is, does this phenomenon represent “Demand pulled forward” from Spring 2014, and that sales in Spring ’14 will noticeably decline (relative to Spring ’13)? I continue to hold this view, though it is interesting to see the sales “strength” continue this far into December (Fixed… Read more »

Snake