BC, economy, Holiday, Open Topic, predictions, prices, rates, supply

Goodbye 2013! Hello 2014!

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87 Comments

Well here we are wrapping up 2013.

The Vancouver market continues to fluctuate in its flat range.

Owners are still paying more than renters, but can paint their walls whatever colour they want.

Renters are still more flexible when it comes to relocation and some of them have more diversified investments, but some of them just want to paint their walls whatever colour they want.

The Vancouver housing bubble is boring.

Not like some of the more exciting housing bubbles around the world.  Remember the Celtic Tiger?  Ireland had a giant boom, but now they’re tearing down brand new homes.

So what will 2014 hold in store for the Vancouver Real Estate Market?  A slump, a dump, a bump or a jump?

What do you think, are we in for an exciting year or another yawner?

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RC

76 Jesse,

Insurance in force is $560 Billion and has been falling over the last year…..$520 Billion by the end of the year. What happened to the chatter of the $600 Billion cap 🙂 ?

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80 N,

said “My place in East Van went from 797K to 789K”…..and from 275K to 789K in 10 years 🙂

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81 Son of Ponzi,

Your post sounds like one from exactly 1 year ago….wait exactly 2 years ago…wait 3 years ago…etc…

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86 jjss:

Ever heard of To Big To Fail?

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oneangryslav2

@92

so assessed value now has something to do with market value? why are ya’ll gett’n giddy over a slight decrease in property taxes for homeowners?

People who live in glass houses should be careful not to throw stones.

You do understand that property taxes have nothing to do with absolute assessment values, right?

Falling assessments do not preclude increased taxes.

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What the

The place I live in (Coquitlam) actually went up close to 80,000 at least according to the property assessment

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skippa_azza

There is no respite from the greaterfools for YVR real estate. A colleague of mine who makes about <60K per annum has bought a home before selling the townhome he bought 3 years ago. Together is on the hook for 900K and trying to manage with 3 different tenants, while he lives in the upper floor. Wonder how he got approval for such a huge sum and two mortgages. Needless to say he is not the brightest of minds and it would be a surprise if this person can keep his job for the next 10 years let alone the whole term of the mortgage. This is a classic example of Ninja loans which the pundits in the mortgage industry says does not exist in Canada. I was thinking of taking the plunge to buy towards end of 2014, but… Read more »

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bitter bear's tears yum yum

so assessed value now has something to do with market value? why are ya’ll gett’n giddy over a slight decrease in property taxes for homeowners?

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Son of Ponzi

Wow,
200 new listings, and it’s not even spring yet.
The suckers who withdrew their listings in hope of a better chance to sell in spring will be in a panic soon.
I predict record listings in the coming months.

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N

My place in East Van went from 797K to 789K, which is to say, the property lost nearly half of the rental income (before costs) due to depreciation. It’s too bad. I like my landlady.

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paulb

New Listings 200
Price Changes 38
Sold Listings 71
TI:11189

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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Johnny-boy

Bad day for bulls today. PaulB will confirm.

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patriotz

@76: “To their credit, the current government has implemented several measures since 2010 aimed at reducing taxpayer exposure to the Canadian mortgage market”

But taxpayer exposure has increased since then, so I’m not inclined to give the government any credit, or indeed see these measures as other than window dressing.

To keep nominal prices steady (which I think is the government’s real intention) requires increasing taxpayer exposure year by year. But bringing prices down (which the government has the full power to do) would bring about defaults and turn the exposure into current expenses.

So just keep moving that king back and forth.

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jesse

“Gentle Ben” Rabidoux is at it again Four changes CMHC needs to make to rein in its mortgage market influence My nomination for the understatement of the year goes to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who in early December observed that “regrettably, CMHC became something rather more grand I think than it was intended to be.” Indeed. The Crown corporation, which originally had a humble mandate of helping first-time buyers obtain favourable financing, now insures $560-billion of some of Canada’s riskiest mortgages, more than double what it insured in 2005. To their credit, the current government has implemented several measures since 2010 aimed at reducing taxpayer exposure to the Canadian mortgage market, but some structural issues remain. Below are four changes that the government should consider making in 2014. Doc requirements, regional caps, no second homes, and better transparency of its… Read more »

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wutwut

THE CRASH IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER. IT BE CAUSED BY PPL BAILING OUT OF THEIR CASHFLOW NEGATIVE PROPERTIES. OK, SURE, IT DIDNT HAPPEN IN 2008… BUT THIS TIME FOR SURE!!!

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UBC in crisis mode

Rent increase in BC for 2014: Max 2.2% The B.C. Residential Tenancy Branch (RTB) has set next year’s maximum allowable rent increase on conventional residential tenancies at 2.2 per cent. Determined annually by the RTB, this figure applies to rent increases that take effect in 2014. Landlords planning to raise rent must give tenants three months notice using the RTB’s Notice of Rent Increase Form. By comparison, the allowable rent increases in B.C. were 3.8 per cent in 2013 and 4.3 per cent in 2012. Landlords wishing for a larger increase can apply to do so through the Residential Tenancy Branch, but must provide the RTB with a valid reason for the intended increase, such as having performed significant renovations on the property. Tenants take note: landlords in B.C. cannot retroactively apply rent increases for previous years during which they… Read more »

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gordholio

#61: I hear you. If I could live and work full time down south I’d have been outta the rainsoaked land of insanity a hell of a long time ago. Couple of things though: Only *some* people call this the BPOE. House salespeople, the government (for awhile), assorted pumpers, the brainwashed, the brainwashERS, a variety of Cams, etc. Also, only *some* people are idiots. Essentially the same ones who claim and/or believe this is the BPOE – many of which seem to be flooding this site in recent days/weeks with their message of lifetime poverty. Note to bull(shitter)s: You know damn well in your corrupt little hearts that it takes years for a fat bastard bubble like this to deflate. In most US cities (including those where it doesn’t rain six months straight and where the price of everything else… Read more »

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Enigma

@Softy: “It’s a soft landing.”

Okay. So let’s say I purchased investment property sometime in the past few years, and I believe your soft landing scenario will play out, I’ll expect relatively flat prices until fundamentals catch up.

If I’m bleeding cash monthly on my property, and without the expectation of further price increases, what’s the smartest choice for me to make: buy more real estate, hold, or sell?

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tedeastside

so it’s 24 degrees in Socal so what? in beautiful Vancouver is 4 degrees and raining and we still have 4 hours of daylight

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tedeastside

@61 how dare you insult a winter olympic city, Southern California never had a awesome winter olympics, Southern California doesnt have skiing and snowshoeing in the same day and they don’t have steam clocks and mountain views and and they don’t have 1-800-got junk

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jesse

“BC Assessment already updated the Assessment Roll last night”

I took a snapshot of the assessed value and sale prices of about 1600 properties sold in the first 3 quarters of 2013, same as I did last year. I’ll DM you the link on vancouverpeak.

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VMD

@65
the better question would be
“It’s not appreciating. How many years will it take for the bulls to accept this?”

IMO bears win in any kind of “Landing” scenario, be it “soft” or “hard”.

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Softy

According to the press release, a 33 fot lot on the west side is only about $100,000 pricier than a 33 fot lot on the east side.

Also, the trend seems to be West side down and East side up.

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Softy

BC Assessment Authority deputy assessor proclaims the second year of flat prices:

“For the second time in as many years, most homes in Vancouver Sea to Sky region are remaining stable in value compared to last year’s assessment roll,” said Dharmesh Sisodraker, Deputy Assessor. “Most home owners in the Vancouver Sea to Sky region will see modest changes in the -5% to + 5% range.”

http://bcassessment.ca/News%20Releases/Vancouver%20Sea%20to%20Sky%202014%20Assessment%20Roll%20News%20Release.pdf

It’s a soft landing. How many years will it take the bears to accept this?

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Ray

Just to clarify — BC Assessment posts the previous year’s assessment but no earlier ones. As a renter it was a damn shame to see my landlord’s East Van condo go -3% this year. Ouch.

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squeako

“Gas was 3.45 a gallon when I left it is 1.33 here and I drove from White Rock to West side and the gas price is exactly the same everywhere, not 1 cent of difference. It always been that way, yet it is so obvious and easy to make a case for price fixing but no one seems to care.” I think what is going on is that so many are already hugely in debt, so what is dime +- going to do? Some may think that “bankruptcy is what is going to “save” them. Debt is not longer a “shame” word, neither seems bankruptcy, it seems more like this is how you play the “game”. But that could be b/c of “stealth marketing” of loans. If I could, I would love to lend money out at 20%30% too, I… Read more »

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