Goodbye 2013! Hello 2014!

Well here we are wrapping up 2013.

The Vancouver market continues to fluctuate in its flat range.

Owners are still paying more than renters, but can paint their walls whatever colour they want.

Renters are still more flexible when it comes to relocation and some of them have more diversified investments, but some of them just want to paint their walls whatever colour they want.

The Vancouver housing bubble is boring.

Not like some of the more exciting housing bubbles around the world.  Remember the Celtic Tiger?  Ireland had a giant boom, but now they’re tearing down brand new homes.

So what will 2014 hold in store for the Vancouver Real Estate Market?  A slump, a dump, a bump or a jump?

What do you think, are we in for an exciting year or another yawner?

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chilled
Member
chilled

I can deal with walls of any colour, just not beige or brown.

Natcho
Guest
Natcho

I can deal with walls of any color as long as they are white. Funny thing, when I moved into my current rental I specified that the Walls all be painted white instead of the previous beige and that was all taken care of at the landlords expense.

Thank goodness for professional property managers, my heart goes out to any renters dealing with amateur landlords in 2014.

ILoveCharts
Guest
ILoveCharts

I think it will be a yawn and that’s ok with me. There are many exciting things in life to invest my time and money in. Vancouver real estate doesn’t need to implode for me to feel satisfied as a renter.

jesse
Member
I am watching a few (admittedly bearish) things in 2014 1) Will last year’s rate hikes reduce sales in 2014? 2) Will mortgage rates continue to climb? 3) Will housing starts continue at current levels, increase, or fall? 4) Will population growth put in a local minimum or drop more, and will Vancouver continue to outperform the rest of the province? 5) Will China’s growth hit another downdraft? And then there is the least satisfying observation, that there is an inherently random component to market fluctuations that are more to do with recent price history, trends, and sentiment, that cannot be known. Nothing moves in a straight line, and while I think the balance of probabilities is lower prices, I don’t put 2014 as “the” year for a big drop as likely. But a year of flat or slightly down… Read more »
Softy
Guest
Softy

We are now well into the second decade of the Vancouver real estate boom. For the bears, “there is always next year”. I predict that all bear hopes for 2014 will be dashed by February.

It is also the time for predictions: which month do you think will end bearish hopes for 2014?

To A New Year
Guest
To A New Year
“I don’t put 2014 as “the” year for a big drop as likely. But a year of flat or slightly down prices would get us 3-5% closer to “balanced”. It is truly disheartening to see the same year end predictions from bears. Every year, there is a degree of giddiness as sales decline slightly, or prices are no longer rising, or construction starts go through the rough, or the feds announced some new measure to ‘tighten’ the market. And then by year’s end, the much anticipated melt, decline, crash, or whatever term you want to use, fails to materialize – and modified predictions are made for the next year. Is this a good time to buy? No. Will the market implode or start the drop that will snowball into houses becoming more affordable here? No. I have followed bear logic,… Read more »
b5baxter
Member

I think I will have to agree with Barry Ritholtz’s predictions for the coming year:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/12/my-annual-predictions-for-the-coming-year-2014-edition/

noname
Guest
noname

unlike many of the silly bears here, i dunno what 2014 will bring. one thing i know for sure, life is still tortured in the best place on earth for those arm-chair economists with graphs and charts.
Happy new year to all of you!

enough already
Guest
enough already
If you wish this upon Vancouver, you are wishing this upon the entire country .. the grass is not greener (no pun intended). Choose where you want to live and make the most of it. Stand up to the bullies – the developers, the sketchy real estate agents, the slum land lords and corrupt government officials who wish only to line the pockets of themselves and their friends. Think about what something is actually worth to you in real terms versus what the market says it’s worth and if this is seriously out of line just forget about it. I have lived in several provinces and I can tell you that problems abound in every locale. If you want to live and work in Vancouver, think outside the box. If you feel the need to invest in real estate, buy… Read more »
jesse
Member

” the much anticipated melt, decline, crash, or whatever term you want to use, fails to materialize”

Who’s predicting that?

Based on the balance of data, I think prices are too high. If they stay high so be it; it means my capital is elsewhere.

Having read this blog for over six years now, I can attest that your diatribe is as tired and repeated as the “bearish” views you purport to reject.

Oh, and Happy New Year.

It's Time
Guest
It's Time

the region is changing. it’s time people accepted the coming cultural shift. when a strong wind blows bend like the reed or you’ll break like the oak tree.

http://i.imgur.com/px9loGI.gif

patriotz
Member

@6: “It is truly disheartening to see the same year end predictions from bears.”

OK, here’s something different.

Buying will not become cheaper than renting without a double digit decline in prices.

condo_day_ftw
Guest
condo_day_ftw
The only prediction I can safely make for 2014 is: a) Vancouver real estate will continue to be a highly speculative place to put your money based on the amount of rent it earns. It is always possible that future rent increases will one day justify today’s high prices, however at the moment this seems very unlikely. The rest of my “predictions” are really just guesses: a) The Olympic Village area will become a draw for young professionals – and will largely be taking them out of the West End. Rents in the West End will experience significant downward pressure as a result and the area will return to being a bit more transient and “Bohemian.” (Note: Prices do not justify rents in either neighborhood, so this should not be considered as “bullish” for the OV area!) b) “Help to… Read more »
Burt
Guest
Burt
The equites and tech bubble in the States will go into full swing next year, and likely have time to continue growing. Commodities will continue to lag, and so will Van RE. For parallels look to Vancouver in the 1990’s. The US had a minor blip of recession in the early 90, only to rally back with a massive decade of growth and topped off with the bust of the dot.com bubble. How did Vancouver RE do in the face of a strong US economy? Down 20 or so percent over the later half of the 90’s. I think we are living through the same thing in BC again, a “lost decade.” Construction boom will begin to slow, cranes will come down, rates will edge up, prices will ever so slowly grind down. Our major infrastructure projects won’t be ready… Read more »
Gone Wrong
Guest
Gone Wrong

Who’s predicting that?

Based on the balance of data, I think prices are too high. If they stay high so be it; it means my capital is elsewhere.

_______________

Seriously? This site and all the main posters were/are predicting, declines, melts, crashes. About 6 or 7 years worth of predictions.

And the whole ‘prices are high and if they stay that way I will be happy to (insert your flavour) rent / invest in other asset classes” is the tired fall back position of a continuously wrong arm chair analyst.

Ah, the qualified bearish ve

jesse
Member
Why It’s a Good Thing If Your City Is Ugly When it comes to cities, the best thing about ugly is nobody’s attracted to ugly. Rich people won’t buy apartments they’ll spend two weeks a year in and leave empty the rest of the time. Young dreamers won’t move to your city just to be a part of the culture, with some of them eventually staying and being a part of an oppressive NIMBY-istic culture. Tourists won’t come year-round and congest your city, creating the demand for trinket shops and faux local cuisine. When it comes time to tear down ugly nobody’s going to object — in fact, they might rally around the idea, feeling that it’ll make way for new opportunities for the city. If you don’t like, nay loathe, all that Vancouver has become and presents to you,… Read more »
patriotz
Member

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/ottawa-cracks-down-temporary-foreign-workers-39-bad-171421969.html

Tough new regulations kick in today aimed at quelling fears that foreigners are snatching jobs from Canadians.

Well I think that opening sentence got it right. What the government is trying to do, once again, is focus on optics rather than actually doing anything. Without resources for enforcement the regulations mean nothing.

Judging from the comments, I don’t they are “quelling” anybody.

jesse
Member
“‘prices are high and if they stay that way I will be happy to (insert your flavour) rent / invest in other asset classes” is the tired fall back position of a continuously wrong arm chair analyst” You mean someone who listened to my “position” and invested their money elsewhere is worse off? I suppose if the investment were cash I can see how that might be true. I can only hope relatively few “renter bears” have remained in cash over the past five years. That would have sucked. I sense you’re angry, but I think, if you did take the prevailing bearish advice here but failed to take risks elsewhere, you’re more angry at yourself than the likes of me. But hey, it’s the end of another fruitless year for those solely focused on the demise of a single… Read more »
VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work
Interesting to see how RE bulls who used to gloat about 10% annual appreciation being “the new paradigm” are now seeking solace in a “soft landing”. The “buy now or be priced out forever” preachers are now touting the “resilience” of RE market growing at sub-inflation levels (and still below the peak of Summer 2011/12). I still hold the view that the peak HPI benchmark prices in Summer 2012 (or 2011, depending on neighborhood)will not be reached again for several more years. Like early 2013, I continue to be bearish CADUSD and will accumulate more USD when favourable. CAD already depreciated against USD by 8% since Jan/13 (-9.5% since Sep/12). We’ll probably see this trend continue through 2014 (export-focused Poloz will be happy about it too). It’s too bad that home “owners” have their equity largely stuck in CAD (tigher… Read more »
noname
Guest
noname

of course you hold the view. otherwise, how can you look your parents in the eyes and say you convinced them from homeowers to be renters. dont tell us that you put your parents’ retirement money into USD too. did they invite you over for Chistmas dinner?

VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work

@noname
Ah, so you’re a old-timer on this blog with a new handle eh?

FYI my parents still own a couple properties east of the Rockies, where RE had had a very good year (thanks in part to the large migration from BC). They are still glad they didn’t buy in Vancouver 1-2 years ago.

There will come a time to sell in Alberta and buy in BC. The time to sell AB is approaching but the time to buy BC is not quite yet.

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

In Vancouver:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html
…total residential sales peaked in 2009 and have been stair stepping down since. Listings have been putting in progressively higher lows. Strata prices trade, depending on location and condition, at 2007 price levels. The only real standout sector is single family dwellings and its attempt to detach from reality fizzled out in early 2012.

In a broader context when you leave the large metro areas, real estate in high unemployment or low wage Canadian small towns is valued far less… because it’s the people inside the houses that create value.

Nationally, Canada has a lot of work to do if the Current Account is a significant measure:
http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2013/12/2014-resolution.html

paulb
Member

Happy New Years everyone!!

Sales this month will come in about 65-70% higher than last Dec.

My guess is the 2014 Vancouver real estate market will mirror 2013. Prices +/- 1-3 % and sales inline with the 10 year average.

New Listings 32
Price Changes 16
Sold Listings 51
TI:12537

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

Immigration consultants from Vancouver are on the plane to Ottawa as we speak carrying thousands of applications.

The current moratorium on parents and grandparent immigration ends at the stroke of midnite. When the current backlog is cleared in 2 years time, hundreds if thousands will be in the que.

Make sure you have a Family Dr. Make sure you have a property. Make sure you demand people speak English.

This is bullish for the Single Family Home. This is the fed gov at work for you.

The worst part is these people will claim GIS in old age even though they will have tons if assets overseas.

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

You said it Paul B!

No correction in 2014 even as rates rise slightly.

People just don’t understand that gov policies control everything. Concentrated Immigration, CMHC, BoC Interest Rates, Land Use Restrictions.

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