economy, Open Topic, opinion, prices

Who wants to throw in the proverbial towel?

December 10, 2013 admin

Bull! Bull! Bull! had a question in yesterdays comment section, but as usual it was quickly voted down.

Not to worry, we’ll highlight it here:

@vancouvercondo.info
@VMD
there is always a lull in posts during xmas. that lull would provide you a good opportunity to retire from the vancouver bear scene.
most people stop posting during the holidays. all you have to do is not start again. thus you, and this blog would simply fade away.
it seems like a dignified to end your mission. you were wrong. that’s ok. just accept it and fade away into the winter sunset. VHB has already done it. maybe your time is coming too…

Not sure why this was also addressed to VMD, but what do you think? Are you readers getting tired of the Vancouver real estate market yet?

Should we set the site on fire and walk off into the sunset? As suggested we could just shut down for the holidays and never come back.

The only thing that gives us pause is that this commenter also seems to desire rain over dry cold weather. Sorry, can’t agree with that one!

But what do the rest of you think? This site is getting long in the tooth and hey, there really has been no dramatic house price crash yet. Does the current situation prove we’re wrong? It’s only been 19 months since the peak of house prices here and the theoretical buyer of a 2009 condo has only lost $35k.

Time to call it quits?

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The current situation proves that we are right. Anyone buying when the cost is so much higher than renting is making a bet on continuously rising prices, and that bet has now been losing for some years. Even on houses.

Whether prices crash to historical multiples and then increase with inflation along with rents, or prices stay flat and rents rise with inflation to restore historical multiples, the person buying today loses the same amount of money in the end.

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Free-bird Tuesday

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http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/2013/12/09/consumer-confidence-nears-year-high-as-canadians-put-faith-in-rising-house-prices&pubdate=2013-12-10

Uh oh…it looks like bull bull bull will be using the HELOC to buy little Timmy his train set. This is what we call the “wealth effect” where everyone is in la-la land because they think their house is worth a million bucks so they spend spend spend. But the reality is that we’re just twice as much in debt.

I vote that we set bull bull bull’s Corolla on fire : )

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Don Lapre

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I would argue that even if you disregard all of the financial discussion on this blog, it has a lot of appeal as simply a window into the sociological aspects of the Vancouver market. The near total obsession of a single asset class to the exclusion of all others. A city where most people are “all-in” on their bet, with most decisions being made with little financial acumen.

An experiment, that if Bull^3 is right, could re-write decades-old economic wisdom, documenting the first time that the group proclaiming “this time it’s different” (with respect to asset prices detaching from fundamental valuation principles in the long run) was correct.

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Bo Xilai

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You know the old investment maxim… The market crashes when the last bear has thrown in the towel…

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Johnny-boy

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Well we have been wrong for a long time as cheap money has poured into this city from locals and off-shore alike. Bubbles take their own time to burst. The stock-market kept going up even after Bears Stern went bankrupt and only collapsed after the Lehman debacle. So far the local housing market has been like teflon and nothing stocks to it. The small correction we have seen so far is nothing compared to the tripling that came before it. However unless we are to become the Hong Kong of the west coast, then we must get a rebalancing some time.

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koozdra

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This is the best time to be a bear. I liked the media’s portrayal of our situation as a Wiley coyote moment. We’re over the cliff but not aware of the sheer force of gravity acting on us.

Listings are down because sellers still think things are going to turn around. When the realization dawns, down we go.

Just like the bulls love to point out, a broken clock is right twice a day. They seem to think it’s an argument against warning people. To me it means that they admit that a crash is imminent, they just don’t like us talking about the timing.

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Personally, I wonder why we’re headlining a troll. As for me, I’ll be here until the housing market in Vancouver resolves itself into some kind of sanity; it’s a point of major curiosity. Meanwhile I’m in a stable, affordable housing situation so I’m perfectly happy to watch. The Bank of Canada has come out with some extremely clear language on debt and housing. From Bank of Canada says housing, debt still pose stability risks: “In Canada, the high level of household debt and imbalances in the housing sector are the most significant domestic vulnerabilities to address,” the central bank said in its semi-annual Financial System Review. These risks could make Canadians vulnerable to an adverse macroeconomic shock and a sharp correction in the housing market, it said. […] The overall level of risk could fall further with continued progress on… Read more »

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Doomcouver

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Bubbles usually go on longer than anyone could have predicted. Canada is the most house-horny country on the planet probably, so it’s no surprise we have such an epic bubble. We might even break some records when it pops I’d bet. Regardless there will be a paradigm shift one day. A 70% ownership rate when it’s this expensive is lunacy. It’s just the trigger and the timing that are impossible to predict. I would guess when mortgage rates finally return to normal it’ll pop. But it could just as much be unemployment. Found this article this morning:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/kellogg-s-to-close-london-ont-plant-and-lay-off-500-workers-1.1582962

Another one bites the dust!

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mac

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I’m not so stubborn as to refuse to admit Bull Bull Bull has a point and a gracious way to exit. My link yesterday shows Robert Shiller affirming that there is no way to be sure something is a bubble except in hindsight. So far, there is no hindsight for this market, frustrating as that may be, it does not conform to our wishes. Perhaps condos will sink but land, not so much.

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Spacemonkey

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On the radio they said iterest rates are up again.
I rent a house worth 950.000 for 1600. only lived there for a year. Do the math bull bull bull

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mosesupposes

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I admit that I thought the market would be down a lot more than it is by now. But I still 100% believe we’re heading for a 20% or more drop. My theories on why the drop has not yet occurred: 1. The power of cheap money. 2. A social acceptance of taking on massive amounts of debt. 3. “Hot” markets in other Canadian cities (in particular Toronto) that create a broader sense of “real estate is a good investment”. 4. An incredibly influential real estate industry that manages to maintain a constant stream of “real estate is good” stories. Reasons why I think the drop is still coming: 1. Every objective criteria (including price to income analysis and price to rent ratio) for assessing value suggests we are vastly overpriced. The only rational responses I can see to this… Read more »

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Where I differ from some Bears is I’m not really looking forward to the crash. It is going to have an absolutely terrible impact on Vancouver. Like it or hate it, real estate is the economic driver in Vancouver and when it goes down, it’s going to get really ugly.

I think Vancouver will greatly benefit from a correction. If you head south along Puget Sound through Seattle and down into Portland, I think you can see much of what Vancouver could gain if the cost of living were to relax somewhat. Real estate NEVER makes a good economic driver.

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YobiKanobi

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“I think Vancouver will greatly benefit from a correction. If you head south along Puget Sound through Seattle and down into Portland,”

yeah right 50 mil can’t even feed themselves with all the new found prosperity from the low RE prices. and Detroit is booming with their $2.99 houses.

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Blah!

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Amazing what difference a year can make. Last year the glee and excitement over the impending Hindenburgh style crash was palpable. This year, … not so much.

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Romeo Jordan

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as most of you know, i threw in the towel a few years ago and sold at a modest loss. all because of some hot chick with big bazongas….

never again!

unless they are huge. i’m a sucker for huge bazongas.

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Atomic Frog

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How can anyone say that a crash for the condo market not coming in Van? I work in the Newton area in Surrey. There are TONS of new condos and townhouses building there and based on my observation there are brand new condos that are selling for more than one yr with multiple price reduction. There is new townhouse development on 142 st and 60 ave that build at an extremely fast pace. All of these is a sign that the developer wants to get the building done ASAP to sell it and get back the money that got tied up in the land. Even the developers are not optimistic about the market. If they are optimistic that the price of a townhouse in that area is going to go up much higher, why the rush to build as quickly… Read more »

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Son of Ponzi

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# 16
“the developers should work together”.
Remember this is a competitive cut throat business.
Until now there was enough room at the trough, but now with a glut of developments driving prices down it’s everyone for themselves.
What will suffer is quality of workmanship.

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@11: “Flaherty has repeatedly tried to bring the market down and has demonstrated annoyance at his inability to do so.”

I know I’ve commented on this before but I will keep doing it.

Ever since becoming MoF in 2006, Flaherty has been trying to keep prices as high as possible. He has backed off on the extreme stimulation (e.g. 0/40) only because he was warned that if prices became too extreme a crash would be inevitable.

Every regular on this board knows that if the federal government stopped guaranteeing mortgages prices would crash 50% or more overnight.

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@16: “I just feel sorry for all those buyer who bought last yr and saw the developer cut prices by 20K every 6 months”

You need to understand that the people who are responsible for the falling prices are the ones who bought for excessive prices. Developers simply sell for whatever they can get.

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cris

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atomic frog.

I agree the price is softening, but when is the crash coming, you ask? You know the answer to that if you know when the Fed will stop/taper QE. But I talked to Ben, he said he didn’t know, let alone anyone else.

Even prices are sky high, but very few people are late on their mortgages. (200 foreclosed/mo?)

Maybe we will have high price forever. It is close to “forever” as is, relative to the life span of a family.

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UBC in crisis mode

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Will this flipper make money:

Land bought for $1,600,000 in March, 2012 (assessed at $1,674,000). Now brand new place for $2,780,000:

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V1038182&REBoards=All&From=MLS

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VMD@work

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It seemd like my little jabs a few days ago drew someone’s attention. Looks like it’s worth repeating: “the phrase “There is always next year” now applies more to RE bulls than bears. Greater Vancouver SFH has failed to reach its peak in May 2012 again for 18 months now. There is always next year.. Greater Vancouver SFH HPI is currently at June 2011 levels Greater Vancouver condo HPI is currently at January 2008 levels Didn’t the Realtors say RE will appreciate with inflation? What happened? I guess there is always next year…” – I also wonder if my comments on the weakening CAD/USD trend irritated him. It can be a tough pill to swallow for someone holding a depreciating asset in a depreciating currency. – On separate note, spoke with a friend of mine recently who is high up… Read more »

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Snake

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Tenants of New Westminster apartment building living without heat

Brady asked the landlord for help, but was only given a small space heater.“She said to me — in her words — you pay $900 because there’s no heat. I don’t really know what to say to that.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/1019822/tenants-of-new-westminster-apartment-building-living-without-heat/
—————————————–
The landlord is cold heartless motherfuck*ng asshole watch the interview

PS:if she is single she could always snuggle at my place

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Snake

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country’s richest are earning more but paying less in tax

https://www.google.ca/search?q=The+country’s+richest+are+earning+more+but+paying+less+in+tax&oq=The+country’s+richest+are+earning+more+but+paying+less+in+tax&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8#es_sm=122&espv=210&q=The+country%E2%80%99s+richest+are+earning+more+but+paying+less+in+tax&tbs=qdr:d

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Bull! Bull! Bull!

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@VMD

you make a soft landing sound like it’s something scary! you doomers sure have a flair for the dramatic!

Bubble? What Bubble?