Cult of ownership in trouble?

The Globe and Mail has an article about shifting perceptions on home ownership in Canada.

Based on a very small sample size, they are predicting that young people in Canada are becoming less willing and able to buy property.

“Last year, in a class of 29 students, a clear majority said they would buy,” Prof. Harris wrote me in an e-mail. “I was surprised because I had spent a lot of time speaking about the dangers of price bubbles, and about the opinion of most experts that the markets in many Canadian cities had moved, or were moving, into bubble territory.”

This year, only five of 23 said they’d buy and 18 chose to rent. “Although the assignment was the same and the content of my lectures pretty much the same, the pattern of response was very different,” Prof. Harris wrote.

Its certainly not what you’d call a wide ranging survey, so what do you think?  Are attitudes towards home ownership changing in Canada or do all the kids still want real estate?

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oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

I suppose it depends on what the Professor means by “a clear majority.” For the sake of argument, I assumed that to mean 20 of 29 want to buy. (It doesn’t make much difference if it’s 20, or 18, or even 16, which is about as low as I would go and still consider it to be a “clear majority” from 28.

Anyway, here’s the answer, from a statistical perspective, as to whether that is a significant difference. The answer is yes. See below:

Welch Two Sample t-test

data: yr1 and yr2
t = 3.8084, df = 49.21, p-value = 0.0003887
alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
95 percent confidence interval:
0.2230933 0.7214345
sample estimates:
mean of x mean of y
0.6896552 0.2173913

CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder
I found out this week that one of my colleagues just sold their apartment, they have a young child and were outgrowing their old place. They had only bought thanks to a down payment from one of their parents but they’ve managed to book a $300K profit and are now going to rent for a while because they think the Sydney market has gone mad! The property euphoria in this country does provide moments of humour, there are real estate porn shows on all the time and this evening I caught an episode of Fantasy Homes in the City. A woman from London was looking to buy an apartment in Barcelona, the host/pimp mentioned in the intro that Spanish property prices were starting to dip although in Barcelona they had simply plateaued. The places this woman looked at were barely… Read more »
Johnny-boy
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Johnny-boy
Turkey
Guest
Turkey

Shared property owners in North Vancouver can force sale, B.C. Supreme Court rules

Frances Bula has written about end-of-life scenarios for strata properties before (see, e.g., “What happens when your Vancouver condo gets old and you have to decide whether to pull the plug?“.)

This time, the BC supreme court has decided a simple majority can force a sale, even if the minority will be seriously inconvenienced.

The article also mentions a 2012 ruling on Cypress Gardens, also in North Vancouver. In that case, the BCSC refused to grant the sale in similar conditions.

For those keeping score, that’s one “yes”, one “no”. It’s not clear to me what to expect next time around.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
David Madani of Capital Economics featured in today’s National Post: “Canada’s Lonely Housing bear” http://business.financialpost.com/2014/01/21/why-is-this-economist-at-odds-with-most-the-street/ “Mr. Madani, who covers Canada for Capital Economics, an independent economics research firm based in London, believes the housing boom and the accompanying surge in personal mortgage debt has created a huge risk for the overall economy, leaving the country vulnerable to a serious and painful correction. “For lack of a better word, I think it’s a bubble,” Mr. Madani says cheerfully.” “Interestingly, he’s not a contrarian when it comes to the international stage. Over the past few months, the International Monetary Fund, Deutsche Bank and other organizations have delivered similar warnings, basically taking the position that soaring real estate values combined with record consumer borrowing have created a major problem and unless we’re very lucky, a day of reckoning is in store.” “One reason… Read more »
Many Franks
Member
Active Member

As expected, Stephen Poloz continues to energetically do nothing.

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

Noncommital milquetoast millenials won’t engage in anything blargh!

Or

Maybe it’s just so obvious now that not even children can be convinced otherwise.

Emperor. Not wearing clothing. It’s happening. I can see scrotum.

sPoloz
Guest
sPoloz

@ManyFranks: It may look like I’m doing nothing, but in reality I’m actively waiting for the problem to go away.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Here’s the article in the Richmond News regarding the earthquake study.
http://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-could-be-shaking-all-over-1.797146

PizzaEater
Guest
PizzaEater

@1 – if you were looking to clarify things I think UR DOING IT RONG. If you were looking to prove you are smart, well I’m not smart enough to determine if that worked or not. Could kind of use a laymans summary after all that math.

Turkey
Guest
Turkey

Bank Of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz Fields Questions From The Press:

[D]eflation would be a killer; wages going down while the size of your mortgage remains unchanged.

What do you mean “your”, white man?

White Man
Guest
White Man

Deflation = value of my huge savings I’ve been putting away for years will go up!

I will be spending yesterday’s high earnings in tomorrow’s low price world.

Bring it on!

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

@#5: Re: Madani. “most other economists who regularly appear in the media are employed by one of the big banks”

Of course, here in BC the local media don’t even bother with bank economists, they just go ask real estate agents.

Turkey
Guest
Turkey

While you’re here, @White Man, I have to ask: Why do you guys like Coldplay so much?

chilled
Member
chilled

And the tenured, baby boomer Professor, permanently parked in a job that the Generation X & Y’s can only fantasize about, sees no generational culpability. How amusing.

Randy Randerson
Guest
Randy Randerson

CAD broke through $0.90 USD today. Welcome to the new “New Normal.”

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck

The dumb fucks at the Bank of Canada keep making us poorer. The con’s need to get kicked out of office…

79¢ dollar, here we come.

m
Guest
m

I don’t like the Poloz guy, the world is global now. A weaker Canadian dollar will only hurt most people making purchases.

Dr N
Guest
Dr N

79¢ dollar? Bring it on!

patriotz
Member

@4: “Seymour Estates, built in 1970, is not a strata under current B.C. law, but has an ownership model similar to a strata.”

Real stratas are governed by the Condominium Act (as I think it’s now called). I wouldn’t read too much for stratas into a court ruling for a property not governed by statutory rules.

patriotz
Member

@17: “The dumb fucks at the Bank of Canada keep making us poorer.”

Canadians have been making themselves poorer by living beyond their means, and the falling CAD is an outcome of that.

The last thing the BoC should try to do is to buck that by trying to prop up the CAD. That’s the sort of thing that just makes money for people like George Soros.

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

“Canadians have been making themselves poorer by living beyond their means…”

But we’re hewers of wood and drawers of [gooey, black] water! Whaddaya mean we can’t afford, on average, to purchase a $380,000 home?

Softy
Guest
Softy
VMD
Member
2 articles in a couple days re: Canada’s fading status as “safe haven” 1. Bloomberg: Canada Loses Haven Status as Dollar Doesn’t Spark Exports Jan 22, 2014 “Canada was the envy of developed economies following the global recession, boasting the world’s soundest banks and a robust housing market that helped push its currency above parity with the U.S. Those days are gone. The dollar plunged to the lowest in more than four years today and returns on Canada’s benchmark stock index were less than half of U.S. equities last year, underscoring an economy beset by the slowest rebound in exports since World War II. Consumers are tapped out with record household debt and governments are more focused on erasing budget deficits than providing stimulus. With the outlook for other major economies improving and “the lack of job growth and economic… Read more »
Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#21
the dumb fucks at the Bank of Canada are making us poorer.
———————
Just transfer your money to the Scotia Bank.
Then you’ll be richer than you think.

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