FFFA! Economy, Moving, Morale & Helicopters!

It’s that time of the week again!

Its Friday Free-for-all time!

This is when we do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

City employees low on morale
Canada Bubble about to burst?
Too late for warnings?
Harpers investment advice
Interprovincial migration by age
You need $2.3 million to retire
One persons move away experience
Advertorial brings back helicopter meme

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!

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Mr. Wong
Guest
Mr. Wong

House price will go down real fast when Trudu get elected and everybody gets real stoned and burn the house, then renter make tent city where angry owner have to move out and go back to Ontario.

:0

VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work

@Jesse & yvr2zrh

One related news: “BC residents plan to save more money than other Canadians this year:poll
Jan 23, 2014
“Canadians increased their savings last year in response to higher long-term interest rates and with one eye on elevated debt,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital markets.

– With Canadian economy being driven mainly by “consumer spending & business inventory accumulation” as of late 2013, one wonders what will happen to economy when debt-laden people begin to worry and save, instead of spend…

Turkey
Guest
Turkey

@Egg Hunt,

My point is Bike lanes are fine, but I support suing more public transit where available.

You’ve worded this like an either/or proposition — can’t we have both bike lanes and rapid transit? Does one really happen at the expense of the other?

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

The Westcoast Express is the classiest way to go to work if you work downtown and live in Port Moody, Coquitlam or Pt. Coquitlam.
Cruising along the Burrard inlet at high speed is just awesome.
When I used it, about 10 years ago, a monthly pass was about 120 bucks.
Not a bad deal.

Egg Hunt
Guest
Egg Hunt
# 159 Thanks for the info, I didn’t know busiest bike route in East side. So, Adanac is off Hastings, right? Adanac – Downtown route, there is Express bus # 135 (?) On East Hastings. My point is Bike lanes are fine, but I support suing more public transit where available. I live in West side Van, happy bus commuter for last 25 years. My observation, those who use Bike lanes weekedays, they could take transit (lots of access), and most seem ample time for recreational bike ride during the weekend (or even after 5pm after they get home). A friend of mine, lives in Port Moody (that’s only place she could afford), and uses Westcoast Express to commute downtown. It’s tough for her to pay for monthly pass (I don’t remember how much, but it is very expensive), although… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member

#148 – – Jesse

Some really great points there – – I think it needs another read for those who have jumped by it.

1.) Housing is consumption. Vancouverites consume more at the expense of other items – such as those mentioned by you.
2.) Condo prices should be driven by return rates on rental yield. Based on this – we should be over-valued (and thus have had flat prices for more than 5 years).

b5baxter
Member

#140

The busiest bike route in Vancouver is Adanac which runs from East Vancouver into Downtown. It has also received extensive upgrades over the past year. You just don’t hear much about it.

The reason you think all the bike routes are being built in Kits/Pt. Grey is because the people in those area tend to be more vocal and get more media attention.

patriotz
Member

@152:

You seriously think every Chinese immigrant to Vancouver is rich? Why are so many of them working for mininum wage or less?

Honestly I don’t think even the RE industry expects people to believe that every one them is loaded.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

# 155
In the 80s, people actually lived in their homes.
This all changed when the first wave of investors from Taiwan and HongKong started buying property just to park their money.
Now, this noble tradition is being followed by the great people from the Middle Kingdom.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Canada Border Agency will soon implement border exit controls.
It’s time we know exactly how many foreigners with limited time visas are overstaying their welcome.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

Hard to believe that there are folks who think that Metro Van’s population will shrink. Metro’s growing by about 30k people per year. That is slower than growth in the 90’s and 80’s, but still growth.

The bubble was not caused by population growth in the first place; there was more growth in the 80’s (averaging 40k per year) and real estate prices fell during that period. The whole population growth = high prices is just a real estate mantra that is always brought out to scare people into buying.

Ever major city in Canada saw it’s real estate prices close to double in the last decade. Even Winnipeg, where the population is growing a minuscule 4k per year and 2% are Chinese.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jHMVDZS7k0g/UnaTnlWkZBI/AAAAAAAAC7k/uppqpjRqDHY/s1600/winnipeg%2Bhousing%2Bbubble%2Baverage%2Bprice.jpg

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

# 153
Correction: Suitcases full of cash “or” gold.
My buddy, the porter at YVR can always tell which one.

jesse
Member

“Suitcases full of cash will just have to,do”

You state this sh!t with no supporting evidence. Let me guess the rebuttal: I have no evidence to support it’s not true.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#151
“many won’t have a credit history”.
——————–
Suitcases full of cash will just have to,do.

jesse
Member

” No one from China will likely be renters when they arrive Van”

Do you have data to support this? A large portion of PR immigrants from China are between 25 and 35 years old, and many won’t have a credit history.

Rent$385
Guest
Rent$385

I emailed this craigslist ad (3bdr rental for $1350 bby). http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/bnc/apa/4304621021.html

This is the reply I received back. And I’m guessing this is the associated mls listing: http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13673295

“We are planning to sell this house since Sep 2012 nothing happening. The house was vacant for 17 months, now we decided to rent too.
The top will stay unoccupied. The ground is for rent. It is private with a big yard, lots of space for BBQ.”

I can only imagine the carrying costs for that one.

Atomic Frog
Guest
Atomic Frog
@146 Most of this inter-provincial migration out of BC are likely renters, who finds better job somewhere else. No one from China will likely be renters when they arrive Van. Even without the HAM and offshore investors, lots of locals who bought into this bubble will HAVE to sell thus flooding the market with waves of listings. Supply goes up, price go down. How difficult is it for u to understand sth as simple as this? The only exception that I can think of is that more HAM or an endless wave of Chinese buyers will surface and buy every single one of these over-priced houses on the market. That could happen, but I am not banking on it. You have no idea how thinly stretched financially some of the ppl that I know who bought houses in Van. A… Read more »
jesse
Member
“BC residents have the highest non-mortgage debt around; indirect evidence of some cost-of-living strain, I think” That may be true. In a region that is land constrained — or purported to be gentrifying — that necessarily means more heavily investing in real estate, often with higher debt loads. Given the inherent leverage involved in residential property investment and the long time scales of corrections, that leaves many exposed to a once-in-a-generation price correction. IIRC, Vancouver has a higher “consumption” of shelter than other areas, relative to incomes. In other words, people are choosing to consume housing instead of other goods, in part perhaps due to the mild weather and lifestyle: people will accept higher shelter costs because they don’t need to supplement their existences with vacations, fully loaded trucks, cottages and the like. It’s comfortable and comfortable has a cost.… Read more »
jesse
Member

George139, I couldn’t agree more: the region will adapt by hook or by crook to differences in housing costs.

Softy
Guest
Softy
Jeez. Do people really find this anaylsis compelling? If the bear case comes down to this, you will be “patiently waiting” for another 13 years for the “bubble” to burst. Basement rental income will dry up because people are leaving BC? The BC population is still increasing because of international immigration. The “people leaving” statistic only refers to provincial migration. “The locals who bought into this property bubble (say in the last 5 yrs) will suffer when the basement rental income dries up, as a result of ppl leaving BC and more basements become available; the mortgage rate will go up by the time they need to renew their mortgage. The cost of borrowing will eventually go up and the rental income will go down. I am expecting a lot of mortgage defaults, divorces, and eventually bankruptcies for these locals.… Read more »
Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Most of these cars are bought in cash by Mommy and Daddy for their satellite kids.

Atomic Frog
Guest
Atomic Frog
The locals who bought into this property bubble (say in the last 5 yrs) will suffer when the basement rental income dries up, as a result of ppl leaving BC and more basements become available; the mortgage rate will go up by the time they need to renew their mortgage. The cost of borrowing will eventually go up and the rental income will go down. I am expecting a lot of mortgage defaults, divorces, and eventually bankruptcies for these locals. Then, they HAVE to sell the house flooding the market with waves of listings. HAM or any offshore investors have no need to sell. I would wait for another 2-3 yrs before starting to low-ball some of these locals when the above happen. Come to think about it, buying a house in Van in the last 5 yrs maybe the… Read more »
Yunak
Guest
Yunak

Absinthe: BC residents have the highest non-mortgage debt around; indirect evidence of some cost-of-living strain, I think.

No wonder, whenever I get out in Vancouver I have a feeling that I am at the Frankfurt Auto-Show. It looks like anything below BMW 3-series, Mercedes c-class and Audi 4 (all of them max 2 years old) is just not acceptable and doesn’t belong to the street of Vancouver because it ruins the beauty and success of the city.

space889
Member
space889

@Egg Hunt – hate to tell you this but fairness left a long time ago. Basic economic theory says that people are greedy and motivated by greed. Where you have greed, you can’t have fairness. Unless people decides to abolish the current political contribution system, make current sacrifice for future gain, and starts voting in honest politicians, the city hall will mostly work for those who fund the political campaign and friends. It is really simple as that.

As well, I read a few years ago that the % of voters in East Van is much much lower than % voters in Van West. Thus, if most of people in East Van don’t vote then why should politicians care?

VHB is lost in a fog
Guest
VHB is lost in a fog

i haven’t seen VHB around the blog in a long time. what happened to him? did he cut and run?