Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again!

And yes, we’re a little slow on the draw this time..

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

-Links to be added later…

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

 

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

More grist for the mill. This U.K. chart of residential activity and diverging earnings caught my eye as well as Mark Carney’s new “Value for Money” initiative
http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2014/01/redundancies.html

At an open house last weekend in Vancouver, a realtor said the same thing to me as an explanation to why the List price was so much greater than the BC Assessed value. It’s the new meme.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

i don’t hear much talk about price movements. i wonder why that is.

RaggedyRenter
Member
RaggedyRenter

So the consensus is another ho-hum year this year?
I was expecting a bit of action with the continually weakening CAD eventually pushing up bond yields.
Not sure what’s going on with the mass layoffs in Canada recently as well. Are we no longer a prime selling target now that our money worth less?
Will TSX eventually caught up with commodity price?

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

# 2.
Price drops are averaging about 60 a day.
Not enough for you?

mac
Member
mac

Not slow after this:

Check out this nifty calculator someone called Vancouver Falling created for Garth over at the greaterfool blog. It’s a nice way to envision the bottom line, inflation adjusted price of any home you might be considering buying.

Thanks Vancouver Falling, whoever you are, and wherever you are:

http://www.findyourworth.org/vancouver-housing-bubble#.UuxBg_3fZZh

patriotz
Member

me: keeping RE prices level requires increasing amounts of debt
“@patriotz – really?? Care to share some math to back that up?”

Simple. Even if prices stay flat, the average price paid for RE will keep increasing, as older owners who bought when prices were lower become a lower % of total owners. Higher average price paid at first purchase requires higher average debt. It doesn’t balance out on the sell side because much of the seller’s proceeds go to consumption.

paulb
Member

New Listings 221
Price Changes 42
Sold Listings 97
TI:13539

Sales for January should come in about 25-30% higher year over year.

For weekly sales intel on a specific neighbourhood/city email me and I will add you to my Friday list. I send this info to a lot of VCI members and it’s no problem. http://www.paulboenisch.com

piklishi
Guest
piklishi

Guys I have been following vci for a long time and read the posts every day. Unfortunately my wife convinced me to buy a house. I know that the correction is coming and I have tried so hard over the years to make her believe it but now I have lost the battle. I do like all of you and I hope I will come back and visit again but will be stressful to see that we bears were right and I bought at the peak. Goodby my friends correction is coming, sorry for giving up and buying now.

midnight toker
Guest
midnight toker

ouch, hope your wife has a good job.

UBC in crisis
Guest
UBC in crisis

Piklish,
Hope you got a good deal (under current market conditions).

The Man
Guest
The Man

There is no known entity in the entire universe stronger than the biological forces of a nesting woman.

Ulsterman
Member
The Man…as a renter who has a sneaky suspicion that the landlord may be planning on selling this summer, I sympathize with the biological forces of the nesting woman. Waiting for a correction since 2006 when i started reading bear blogs, and telling all my owner friends that the correction is right around the corner, got old about five years ago. The thought of uprooting my wife and three small kids a second time in five years is really the pits. If i were single or part of some dynamic downtown couple, maybe i wouldn’t give a shit. Renting houses that are forever being sold out from under you is just tiresome and demoralizing. I’m really fighting the MLS urge! But i will fight on because I feel that with all the recent poor economic data coming from Canada and… Read more »
patriotz
Member

Turkey? Argentina? Save your worry for China

The Soros quote at the end of the article is messed up. What Soros actually said:

There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/05/george-soros-chinese-slowdown-biggest-worry

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

ulsterman it says in the vancouverites bible… House Flippians 5:13 ,
thou shall flip thy house in the name of thy god world-class vancouver

it`s all in the bible son, it’s the vancouverites bible

jesse
Member
On China, this economist has been bearish the investment growth model for a while now: he impact of reform on growth The Chinese growth model is a version – in probably its most extreme form – of the investment-led growth model described by Alexander Gershenkron fifty years ago. To simplify tremendously, growth in “backward” economies is supported by policies that subsidize investment while suppressing consumption (usually by constraining household income growth). These “backward” economies are ones in which the level of capital stock is much lower than the country’s social and institutional ability to absorb investment efficiently. Early on, many years of high investment allowed China to catch up. Once it did, however, continuing to invest in the same way and to the same degree was no longer wealth enhancing. At this point the economy needed institutional and social reforms… Read more »
The Man
Guest
The Man
Now the ReMax agent was more crafty than any of the wild animals. He said to the woman, “Did the Garth really say, ‘You must not eat from the homeownership tree in the garden’?” The woman said to the serpent, “We may eat from the rental trees in the garden, but the Garth did say, ‘You must not eat from the homeownership tree that is in the middle of the garden, and you must not touch it, or you will be indebted.’” “You will not certainly be indebted,” the Remax serpent said to the woman. “For the Garth knows that when you eat from it your eyes will be opened, and you will be like Garth, knowing granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances.” When the woman saw that the fruit of the homeownership tree was good for entertaining and… Read more »
mac
Member
mac

Guys stop blaming women for your real estate problems. The fact is if your wife had made the decision when she first wanted to it would have been a smart decision. Stop blaming it all on biology. You didn’t buy because you had predictive models that didn’t turn out right, which is fancy speak for she was right and you were wrong.

crikey
Guest
crikey

Garden of Eden adaption was the funniest thing I have read in a while! Thank you! And it is humor people, not academic analysis – get over it. I don’t see people get all upset every time a commercial or TV show (ever seen Modern Family?) portrays husbands as fumbling idiots

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

@ Mac “The fact is if your wife had made the decision when she first wanted to it would have been a smart decision.”

That depends. Obviously if that decision was made before the great gains in prices (2003-2007) or perhaps in the dip of 2008/09, then it would have been a smart decision. I would think most here were not in the period of there lives where they could do that. If you bought in the last 3-4 or so years, while prices have been flattish, depending on your earnings and rent costs you would have been better off saving more toward your down payment.

For every $100k you put away your save $60-80k on interest depending on term of the mortgage.

Yalie
Guest
Yalie

I probably shouldn’t post this, at the risk of potentially offending some of the female readers (for which I apologize in advance), but it’s a pretty funny “take” on the nesting stereotype.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEVU-YLpM8A

Snake
Guest
Snake

Just hours after arriving in Vancouver, the scandal-plagued Toronto Mayor Rob Ford found himself once again the subject of controversy,received a ticket for jaywalking early Saturday, and denied reports that he had been intoxicated.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/rob-ford-admits-jaywalking-ticket-in-vancouver-denies-public-intoxication/article16649281/

Seafair dweller
Guest
Seafair dweller

@ #20 Yalie,

Ha Ha Ha (groan).

Yes, maybe a little over the top, but it’s the exadduration of reality that makes it funny.

I’m guessing the for every woman that insisted on purchasing a house, there is a man that came home with an expensive car or barbeque or table saw or something.

jesse
Member

“You didn’t buy because you had predictive models that didn’t turn out right”

It takes balls of steel to be “wrong” ex post yet have been statistically “right” ex ante, and do nothing more than shrug. Don’t take it personally that others have figure this out.

I don’t take advice from people much, but one piece I took, and will now pass on to you now, courtesy Tim Russert and others, is, “Never look back.”

Admission: I’m so optimistic about the future it confounds my mind that I’m still “bearish” on Vancouver real estate. But the numbers simply don’t work for me.

patriotz
Member

@19: “Obviously if that decision was made before the great gains in prices (2003-2007) or perhaps in the dip of 2008/09, then it would have been a smart decision.”

Not obvious at all. Someone buying 2005 or later (before that we weren’t calling a bubble) would have been paying more in ownership costs than rental value for most or all of the time up to today. That deficit compounds in present value and requires similarly compounding price to break even at time of sale. As well of course, any rise in interest rates going forward would make that break even harder to achieve.

What’s obvious is if you sell now you will come out ahead.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

There is a new Driving School in Richmond, catering to rich Chinese Satelite kids.
It’s called “Benz Academy Driving School”.

wpDiscuz