It’s that time of the week again!
And yes, we’re a little slow on the draw this time..
This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.
-Links to be added later…
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
More grist for the mill. This U.K. chart of residential activity and diverging earnings caught my eye as well as Mark Carney’s new “Value for Money” initiative
http://www.chpc.biz/2/post/2014/01/redundancies.html
At an open house last weekend in Vancouver, a realtor said the same thing to me as an explanation to why the List price was so much greater than the BC Assessed value. It’s the new meme.
i don’t hear much talk about price movements. i wonder why that is.
So the consensus is another ho-hum year this year?
I was expecting a bit of action with the continually weakening CAD eventually pushing up bond yields.
Not sure what’s going on with the mass layoffs in Canada recently as well. Are we no longer a prime selling target now that our money worth less?
Will TSX eventually caught up with commodity price?
# 2.
Price drops are averaging about 60 a day.
Not enough for you?
Not slow after this:
Check out this nifty calculator someone called Vancouver Falling created for Garth over at the greaterfool blog. It’s a nice way to envision the bottom line, inflation adjusted price of any home you might be considering buying.
Thanks Vancouver Falling, whoever you are, and wherever you are:
http://www.findyourworth.org/vancouver-housing-bubble#.UuxBg_3fZZh
me: keeping RE prices level requires increasing amounts of debt
“@patriotz – really?? Care to share some math to back that up?”
Simple. Even if prices stay flat, the average price paid for RE will keep increasing, as older owners who bought when prices were lower become a lower % of total owners. Higher average price paid at first purchase requires higher average debt. It doesn’t balance out on the sell side because much of the seller’s proceeds go to consumption.
New Listings 221
Price Changes 42
Sold Listings 97
TI:13539
Sales for January should come in about 25-30% higher year over year.
For weekly sales intel on a specific neighbourhood/city email me and I will add you to my Friday list. I send this info to a lot of VCI members and it’s no problem. http://www.paulboenisch.com
Guys I have been following vci for a long time and read the posts every day. Unfortunately my wife convinced me to buy a house. I know that the correction is coming and I have tried so hard over the years to make her believe it but now I have lost the battle. I do like all of you and I hope I will come back and visit again but will be stressful to see that we bears were right and I bought at the peak. Goodby my friends correction is coming, sorry for giving up and buying now.
ouch, hope your wife has a good job.
Piklish,
Hope you got a good deal (under current market conditions).
There is no known entity in the entire universe stronger than the biological forces of a nesting woman.
Turkey? Argentina? Save your worry for China
The Soros quote at the end of the article is messed up. What Soros actually said:
There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/05/george-soros-chinese-slowdown-biggest-worry
ulsterman it says in the vancouverites bible… House Flippians 5:13 ,
thou shall flip thy house in the name of thy god world-class vancouver
it`s all in the bible son, it’s the vancouverites bible
Guys stop blaming women for your real estate problems. The fact is if your wife had made the decision when she first wanted to it would have been a smart decision. Stop blaming it all on biology. You didn’t buy because you had predictive models that didn’t turn out right, which is fancy speak for she was right and you were wrong.
Garden of Eden adaption was the funniest thing I have read in a while! Thank you! And it is humor people, not academic analysis – get over it. I don’t see people get all upset every time a commercial or TV show (ever seen Modern Family?) portrays husbands as fumbling idiots
@ Mac “The fact is if your wife had made the decision when she first wanted to it would have been a smart decision.”
That depends. Obviously if that decision was made before the great gains in prices (2003-2007) or perhaps in the dip of 2008/09, then it would have been a smart decision. I would think most here were not in the period of there lives where they could do that. If you bought in the last 3-4 or so years, while prices have been flattish, depending on your earnings and rent costs you would have been better off saving more toward your down payment.
For every $100k you put away your save $60-80k on interest depending on term of the mortgage.
I probably shouldn’t post this, at the risk of potentially offending some of the female readers (for which I apologize in advance), but it’s a pretty funny “take” on the nesting stereotype.
Just hours after arriving in Vancouver, the scandal-plagued Toronto Mayor Rob Ford found himself once again the subject of controversy,received a ticket for jaywalking early Saturday, and denied reports that he had been intoxicated.
@ #20 Yalie,
Ha Ha Ha (groan).
Yes, maybe a little over the top, but it’s the exadduration of reality that makes it funny.
I’m guessing the for every woman that insisted on purchasing a house, there is a man that came home with an expensive car or barbeque or table saw or something.
“You didn’t buy because you had predictive models that didn’t turn out right”
It takes balls of steel to be “wrong” ex post yet have been statistically “right” ex ante, and do nothing more than shrug. Don’t take it personally that others have figure this out.
I don’t take advice from people much, but one piece I took, and will now pass on to you now, courtesy Tim Russert and others, is, “Never look back.”
Admission: I’m so optimistic about the future it confounds my mind that I’m still “bearish” on Vancouver real estate. But the numbers simply don’t work for me.
@19: “Obviously if that decision was made before the great gains in prices (2003-2007) or perhaps in the dip of 2008/09, then it would have been a smart decision.”
Not obvious at all. Someone buying 2005 or later (before that we weren’t calling a bubble) would have been paying more in ownership costs than rental value for most or all of the time up to today. That deficit compounds in present value and requires similarly compounding price to break even at time of sale. As well of course, any rise in interest rates going forward would make that break even harder to achieve.
What’s obvious is if you sell now you will come out ahead.
There is a new Driving School in Richmond, catering to rich Chinese Satelite kids.
It’s called “Benz Academy Driving School”.