TD: Houses 10% overpriced nationally

Somebody over at TD bank looked in their crystal ball and saw interest rates rising.

They say that a combination of factors including increasing supply, softening demand and the expectation of rising interest rates mean that home price across the nation are overvalued by about 10%.

It says markets such as Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa are likely more overvalued than markets in the Prairie and Atlantic regions, and will likely see more of an impact.

The national housing market and worries about a real estate bubble have been key concerns for policy-makers for several years.

Recent indicators have suggested the market may be headed for a soft landing instead of a bubble bursting, but concerns have persisted.

Full article here.

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Guest
UBC in crisis mode
2 years 4 days ago

In January, 2014, 117 detached sold in Van West, average $2.14 millions. This is the separate market which has nothing to do with local economy, income, interest rate, etc. ALL HAM.

More are coming to North Van, as it is cheaper there (< $2 million).

jesse
Member
2 years 4 days ago

“Recent indicators have suggested the market may be headed for a soft landing instead of a bubble bursting”

So what was the last 5 years for Vancouver condos, and pretty much everything in BC outside of the near-burbs of Vancouver? Chopped liver?

kabloona
Member
kabloona
2 years 4 days ago

If it doesn’t impact Tamara Taggart, it’s not important.

Who cares about Abbotsford….? Tamara doesn’t live there….

😉

Guest
Snake
2 years 4 days ago
Guest
Van Coffee
2 years 4 days ago

I post here infrequently, but read the comments here daily. 10 years ago I was a HAM denier. Now I have little kids, and one of them is in a private pre-school in the west side and I have spent the last few years living on the west side. Unless you live over there or spend considerable time over there, I can see how people would still deny the existence of HAM. I was at an event recently for my daughter’s pre-school. Not all parents are HAM, don’t get me wrong, however it is probably close to 50%. I was… Read more »

Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 days ago

#5
I’m in a similar situation here in Richmond.
My wife is Chinese, too.
In my opinion, the boat has left, and the only way is to adjust or move.

Guest
Van Coffee
2 years 4 days ago

SOP –
you think so?
The Mainlanders I know are mostly transient. They are here for the kids’ schooling, and then they pretty much leave. They don’t put down roots. Wouldn’t stopping new ones help to end the cycle?

VC

Guest
Egg Hunt
2 years 4 days ago

#5 Van Coffeee

I hear you. I live Van West, children goes to
schools in West side.

>strong independent lobby group

This unfortunately in City of Vancouver or B.C., I know are
R/E Developer supporting, therefore, welcoming immigration
and like bike lanes to make gated-community to pump up house prices,
no matter what if they pay tax or no-tax.

Guest
Snake
2 years 4 days ago

Vancouver home sales jump 30% in January from a year ago, board warns people to ‘price’ home right

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/04/vancouver-home-sales-january-2014/

VanRant
Member
VanRant
2 years 4 days ago

“Ottawa to give IRS information on Americans living in Canada.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ottawa-to-give-irs-information-on-americans-in-canada/article16710461/

Will China be next?

Guest
Collie
2 years 4 days ago

Re Van Coffee.
This is Vancouver so the last thing people will listen to are facts.
Here is a great idea though from Mish:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2014/02/barcelona-to-fine-owners-of-empty-homes.html

Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 days ago

# 7
I agree, but while they are here the want the comforts of home, like Chinese food, mani and pedicures, and manservants.
Which all means more service type immigrants will come, and so on and so on.

Guest
Joe Mainlander
2 years 4 days ago

@#1

117 sales out of 2532 in Metro Van in January. That’s 5%. Not influential.

You did not cite any source for your info on these being all HAM, by which I assume you mean foreign investors, not the 30% of Vancouverites who happen to be of east asian descent.

Lots of anecdotes, but when you add up the data, so far, it is insignificant.

Guest
born a Vancouverite
2 years 4 days ago

@5 Van Coffee I agree with all your comments as I too, was born here. I don’t know if there is a strong independent lobby group that will tackle some of these issues but if you start one, I will support you. This parent at your preschool with the son at Shaughnessy – the only reason she is not sending her son to a private school is because he would not pass the English requirement test. That is why she is concerned about his English language ability. You should have asked her if BC medical premiums are subsidized or not… Read more »

Member
tedeastside
2 years 4 days ago

Abbotsford´, God’s chosen people don’t live in Abbotsford…
God’s chosen people live in Vancouver, according to proud vancouverites

Guest
UBC in crisis
2 years 4 days ago

“Sales of detached properties in January 2014 reached 728” according to the RE Board. So 117 detached over 2 million is 16% of all detatched sales in January, 2014 from such a small area.

Even a few 10 million property sales will screw the average.

Guest
wcth
2 years 4 days ago

re: #8

“…and like bike lanes….”

It is a bit odd ot throw bike lanes in here. After all, HAM tend to view bikes negatively. In that culture they are symbols associated with poverty and get in the way of the big SUVs. It seems that if you believe the whole HAM narrative you would welcome bike lanes.

Member
mac
2 years 4 days ago

Too late Van Coffee. A small group coming and going is one thing. Catering to the free healthcare and education needs of a billion people won’t end soon. And you can’t count on the government to stop it because they can charge an entrance fee to pay for their stupid pet projects be it Olympics, social housing, or whatever, left or right. Australia now moves wealthy investor immigrant visa to four point three MILLION DOLLARS and the Chinese are lining up. And the government knows it’s the Chinese too. That’s why the investor visa is called either 188 or 888.… Read more »

Member
mac
2 years 4 days ago

Going to get some bristle board n’ write up some signs

Clean = 清潔

More clean? = 更乾淨

My wife cleans too! = 我的妻子也清理

patriotz
Member
2 years 4 days ago

@8: “I am against this “economic immigration”.” Sorry if this sounds like a nitpick but officially an economic immigrant is someone not admitted as family class, refugee, or on other humanitarian grounds. That is skilled workers are offically economic immgrants (as they are in fact). What you are talking about is investor and business class immigrants. No political party is in favour of eliminating investor immigration. Not even the NDP, which on the other hand wants to give priority to family class. The Cons are experts at giving the impression that they are going to do something and then doing… Read more »

Member
tedeastside
2 years 4 days ago

hams love small towns with cold rain and nothing to do like vancouver

does anyone know if ham parents want their kids to start their careers in vancouver…..as vancouver isn’t exactly known for it’s job opportunities

Guest
Yunak
2 years 4 days ago

Differences and disaffection will grow, tensions will rise until the point when this idiotic experiment of artificially inhabiting Canada with Chinese and creating monster-society falls apart and escalate to socio-ethnic conflict. After all someone will ask “How come we didn’t see it coming?”.

jesse
Member
2 years 4 days ago
Guest
Jedi Master
2 years 4 days ago

You are racist!!!!! Just say stop economic immigrant period (or letting people in the country because they have cash!!!!!! The word HAM should not be used (because you are targeting a group of people). I disagree with the economic immigrant program too. We need more working people, not rich people. I don’t care where them come from. It is not a factor to me. Van Coffee Says: February 5th, 2014 at 12:49 pm 5 I post here infrequently, but read the comments here daily. 10 years ago I was a HAM denier. Now I have little kids, and one of… Read more »

Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 days ago

Crusty Clark has hitched her economic agenda on China.
So, she’s not gonna piss off the rich Chinese.
The Minister for Multiculturalism is Chinese.
I wonder what the south Asians think about that.
Also, BC was the first non Chinese jurisdiction to issue “dim sum bonds” which were denominated in yuan.
the first issue was so successful, that they are contemplating more.
Sorry, folks, but the Pecking Duck has laid its eggs

paulb
Member
2 years 4 days ago

New Listings 251
Price Changes 56
Sold Listings 89
TI:13603

http://www.paulboenisch.com
http://twitter.com/BoenischPaul

Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 days ago

I’ll bet we’ll be celebrating 16,000 by the end of February.
Any takers?

Guest
yukon
2 years 4 days ago

Ponzi you crack me up man

Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 days ago

BTW,
Vancouver Price Drop is back in business.
Check it out and show your support for the efforts of The Observer.
http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

Member
space889
2 years 4 days ago

@Van Coffee – Sorry but I don’t think the problem is the one you cite. Frankly I think having lots of these rich people coming here is good for local biz and economy. Do you realize how much money are being made off these people from – car dealerships, RE, private school, luxury goods store, local restaurants, etc, etc, etc?? While they may not pay income tax but they do pay a lot of local sales taxes and generate service jobs. The problem and I think this is really what you are gripping about is that they also take advantage… Read more »

Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 days ago

For those Caucasians who need a primer on Chinese culture:
Read this book:
http://www.kimwongkeltner.com/books/tiger-babies-strike-back/

Guest
Bartleby
2 years 4 days ago

I don’t often comment. But appreciate VanCoffee’s note tonight, and thought I’d add an anecdote, and a question. I’m looking at rentals these days because we can’t afford to buy. Even rentals seem crazy expensive–either too ugly, or too small, or in the wrong location for the money. Sometimes I find something in my Goldilocks zone, and when I call to talk to the landlord, most of the time, I encounter HAM. Take this UBC Duplex on Chancellor Blvd for example: Listed for 2.1 million on MLS (V998687), but was advertised for rent on Craigslist for $5000/month. Compared to the… Read more »

Guest
UBC in crisis
2 years 4 days ago

This duplex was purchased only few years ago for about $2.3 millions, and has been on the market for more than a year, asking $2.18 millions. No takers as it is too over priced. A similar duplex next door reduced to $1.89 millions, sold in a few weeks (months?).

I assume this duplex is not mortgaged.

If I need to wash $20 millions clean in a rush, do I calculate the returns of investment? No. Just buy a few houses in Vancouver, whatever the price. Forget about ROI!

Guest
Son of Ponzi
2 years 4 days ago

#33
Bang on.
Vancouver West.
One Giant Washing Machine.

Guest
Barb Rennie
2 years 4 days ago

I really appreciated Van Coffee’s comments – your comments really resonate. So sick of our government sucking up to all this dirty money. It will never end. Aren’t they talking about opening up the floodgates to more foreign students because they pay a higher tuition? Vancouver’s mayor just went to China to create BETTER relationship – just in case they didn’t know that Canada is a doormat for China. This has gotten out of hand for quite some time. I would welcome anybody to put a stop to it. BTW, I am a banana – can’t call me a racist.

Member
tedeastside
2 years 4 days ago

is Donald Trump a racist because he doesn’t like China …..

can you imagine a Vancouver realtor dissing China like the Donald does… never

Guest
gah
2 years 4 days ago

Are you impressed by Donald Trump? Here’s a tweet by him:
How amazing, the State Health Director who verified copies of Obama’s “birth certificate” died in plane crash today. All others lived

Guest
What's with the ski season?
2 years 4 days ago

Space889 @Van Coffee – Sorry but I don’t think the problem is the one you cite. Frankly I think having lots of these rich people coming here is good for local biz and economy. Do you realize how much money are being made off these people from – car dealerships, RE, private school, luxury goods store, local restaurants, etc, etc, etc?? While they may not pay income tax but they do pay a lot of local sales taxes and generate service jobs. __________________________ You are incorrect. Half of our government’s revenue comes from personal income tax. A few dollars of… Read more »

jesse
Member
2 years 4 days ago

“BTW, I am a banana – can’t call me a racist”

I think the post that has 100+ “likes” was the one to present the “racvism” statement, then goes on to say, well I know some will call me racist, somehow that allows him to continue unimpeached.

I’ve commented for a while here, that comment is extremely problematic. Alas I think I finally understand now, and will bid you all the best. Thanks for everything, Pope!

Guest
Wow
2 years 4 days ago

Wow. In one day this blog becomes HAM believing anti-Chinese. What happened?

Maybe they’re right, I better buy now before I get priced out by the hordes. What’s Cam Good’s number?

patriotz
Member
2 years 4 days ago

@30: “Do you realize how much money are being made off these people from – car dealerships, RE, private school, luxury goods store, local restaurants, etc, etc, etc??” Virtually all of the business owners and employees thereof being not-so-rich ethnic Chinese. Which goes back to my original point. Politically, it’s not just about the rich ones. This is just another variation on an old theme. Interest groups which are organized, share a common identity and can be brought out to vote get catered to at the expense of the general population. Exhibit ‘A’, Crusty’s “EthnicGate”. The lower the voter turnout,… Read more »

Guest
George
2 years 3 days ago

@Van Coffee #5: I just want to chime in and say I also really appreciate the comments of Van Coffee. I agree wholeheartedly with what you are saying. I really like how you are focussing on economic immigration as the problem and it wouldn’t matter where people are coming from or what race they are. I haven’t had time to give a more thoughtful response or to comment on possible strategies because I have been very busy over the last few days. So I may come back and give you my thoughts in that regard. But I just want to… Read more »

Guest
Dyugle
2 years 3 days ago

Luxury tax on high end houses with an offsetting rebate on income taxes. Levels the playing field and if you pay no income taxes well too bad!

Member
2 years 3 days ago

@jesse: Please don’t let yourself get chased off by a large number of up-votes on a comment you disagree with. I would miss the analytic perspective you bring to this blog — we need more of it.

Member
2 years 3 days ago

Jesse #39

I’m not sure to if I should vote your comment up or down. Don’t leave us. You are the meat in our sandwich.

Guest
mister
2 years 3 days ago

Dont leave us jesse

Guest
Boy from Brazil
2 years 3 days ago

Every economically troubled time needs a scapegoat.

/: #]

VanRant
Member
VanRant
2 years 3 days ago

10 ways Ottawa is changing how to become a Canadian citizen

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ten-ways-ottawa-is-changing-how-to-become-a-canadian-citizen/article16724611/

About time but is it tough enough?

Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
2 years 3 days ago

looks like we can add jesse to the growing list of capitulating bears. Van Coffee is obviously not racist. it’s hilarious that you are quiting the blog on such a phony high horse.

if people who are always wrong, like jesse, are starting to capitulate then i am honestly and truly starting to get a little bit concerned about this market.

Guest
Softy
2 years 3 days ago

Differences and disaffection will grow, tensions will rise until the point when this idiotic experiment of artificially inhabiting Canada with Chinese and creating monster-society falls apart and escalate to socio-ethnic conflict. After all someone will ask “How come we didn’t see it coming?”.

Canadians are too polite for that to ever happen.

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