FFFA! lawsuits, investing, bidding wars

Hey, looky here!

It’s Friday o’clock!

That means it’s time for our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Friday Free-for-all time!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

22 Months since the peak
34% of Canadians ready for bid war
A good investment?
Good luck with that
Fake CMHC on twitter
Maybe a bit too much debt
Ping Pong Pricing Protocol
The sunshine coast in 2014
Richer yet poorer?!?

So what are you seeing out there? Post you news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
cris
Guest
cris

or lives in Abbotsford.

SS
Guest
SS

@space889

All your arguments seem to boil down to this. X and Y are bad. But you can’t criticize X unless you also criticize Y.

Sorry, but that’s invalid. We can criticize just X, just Y, or both. It doesn’t matter. If someone is a selfish parasite they better be prepared for what comes. It doesn’t matter if they are alone or not.

And calling people racist isn’t going to stop them from hating on these bastards. No matter how many times you post the same rant.

space889
Member
space889
@crikey – I’m sick and tired of the BS nad racism rants dressed up as some sort of social justice crusade here…. We let in a lot of bad immigrants – rich and poor, Chinese and non-Chinese. It is what it is. Nobody likes corrupt officials here but they are here, welcomed by governments and house sellers who are more than happy to take the money, no question asked. If people are blaming the corrupt for lack of moral fiber, what about the moral fiber of the sellers who take the money? If a thief is wrong to steal, are you not also guilty in this for buying the stolen goods at a low price and providing a market for the thief? And if 80% of thieves are say race X, does that mean all race X people are thieves… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@178: “Ben’s analysis does not factor in torn down homes.

Sure one new build is counted as 1 unit. But it shouldn’t be as one was destroyed.”

But almost every new build “SFH” has 2 or more units, while the previous structure likely only had one.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander
@ 178 I doubt that 168k homes were torn down to make way for the 168k new units. That would be like leveling every dwelling unit in Surrey (at 153k units), and then some. Think of the magnitude. However looking at Metro stats; 2001 Total Metro occupied dwelling units = 758,715 2011 Total Metro occupied dwelling units = 891,340 Additional dwelling units = 136,625 http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/Census2011-Dwellings.pdf 2001 Households = 758,175 2011 Households = 891,335 Additional households; 133,160 http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/HousingStarts-Total.pdf Housing starts; 2001-2011 = 160,437 http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/Census2011-Families.pdf So the number of new housing starts (168k) Ben cited is close. Not sure if the difference between housing starts and occupied dwellings (24k) is the result of tear downs or empty units. But, point is, we are building new supply to meet new population, maybe more. BTW, an argument stands on it’s own merits. The charts… Read more »
Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander
@ 178 I doubt that 168k homes were torn down to make way for the 168k new units. That would be like leveling every dwelling unit in Surrey (at 153k units), and then some. Think of the magnitude. However looking at Metro stats; 2001 Total Metro occupied dwelling units = 758,715 2011 Total Metro occupied dwelling units = 891,340 Additional dwelling units = 136,625 http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/Census2011-Dwellings.pdf 2001 Households = 758,175 2011 Households = 891,335 Additional households; 133,160 http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/HousingStarts-Total.pdf Housing starts; 2001-2011 = 160,437 http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/Census2011-Families.pdf So the number of new housing starts (168k) Ben cited is close. Not sure if the difference between housing starts and occupied dwellings (24k) is the result of tear downs or empty units. But, point is, we are building new supply to meet new population, maybe more. BTW, an argument stands on it’s own merits. The charts… Read more »
tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

Texans have way better values than Vancouverites….Vancouverites need to stop thinking everybody else in the world is inferior to them

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

BPOM… its not a crowding thing, it really is a Vancouver thing

Chicago is crowded, Tokyo is crowded but they’re not unfriendly stressed out miserable angry pushy rats like Vancouverites are….

Reality Check
Guest
Reality Check

Ben’s analysis does not factor in torn down homes.

Sure one new build is counted as 1 unit. But it shouldn’t be as one was destroyed.

hope you understand what I’m saying here.

plus Ben has a boss to answer to… his analysis has to fit their goals. No offence Ben.

Reality Check
Guest
Reality Check

airborne canine:

Abby is down or flat because no immigrants are moving there.

Chinese, Filipinos etc. (oriental) don’t move there.

newly arrived Indians don’t move there because they like surrey better (reminds them of their homeland) plus only one major school for foreign students.

so the prices there reflect low interest rates, lax CMHC rules, etc.

west of there is supercharged via immigration and HAM and soon HIM.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

According to Ben’s stats, we built 168k units last decade and added 145k households. So, we’re 15% over on units. There’s room for some empty units.

minotaur3
Member

#171
Ben’s analysis assumes that every completed unit goes into inventory for rent or sale.
That’s the problem in a market were 30% of the units are bought by flippers and speculators, who keep the units empty.

Keeping units empty is a loser’s game.

It can only ever “work” in a rapidly rising market, and even then the lost income eats away most of the purported gains.

The more units kept empty, the more incentive developers have to build new units, which then requires speculators to keep even more units empty to maintain the illusion of scarcity, which gives developers even more incentive to build. It never ends. That’s a great way for speculators to transfer money to developers.

For example, China tried stockpiling cotton. Predictable results:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2014/01/china-abandons-disastrous-cotton.html

paulb
Member

New Listings 336
Price Changes 115
Sold Listings 151
TI:14756

http://www.paulboenisch.com

airborne canine
Guest
airborne canine
FVREB Feb., 2014 press release: Fraser Valley’s condo market, moderately busier in February, continues to favour buyers offering excellent opportunities due to higher levels of inventory and prices comparable to what they were eight years ago.” Condo prices are crashing in Abbotsford: ABBOTSFORD 136,100 115.3 -1.1 -3.5 -18.5 -21.3 -15.0 -17.4 benchmark price index (HPI) 1 mo. 3 mo. 6 mo. 1 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. Townhouse prices are not far behind in Abbotsford: ABBOTSFORD 213,100 115.4 1.7 1.4 -10.1 -8.9 -12.1 -10.3 Why is no one talking about this more than 20% drop in one year in the 3rd biggest population centre in BC as per Wilkipedia; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_population_centres_in_British_Columbia Does this not remind of you the distant suburbs of LA circa 2007 and 2008? For those who don’t know, there are a lot of condos in Abbotsford and they… Read more »
oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

#171 “Ben’s analysis assumes that every completed unit goes into inventory for rent or sale.
That’s the problem in a market were 30% of the units are bought by flippers and speculators, who keep the units empty.”

So that patriotz doesn’t have to say it…if that were the case, why haven’t market rents gone up beyond inflation, then?

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#170
Ben’s analysis assumes that every completed unit goes into inventory for rent or sale.
That’s the problem in a market were 30% of the units are bought by flippers and speculators, who keep the units empty.

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

Yes, there has been no restrictions on supply, as Ben Rabidoux pointed out in the last 10 years Metro has added 1 new dwelling unit for every 2.24 persons of growth.

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/debunking-supposed-drivers-vancouvers-crazy-real-estate-market

Household size averages about 2.6.

http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/PersonsinPrivateHouseholdandAverageHouseholdSize.pdf

So we are balancing new growth with housing supply. So, we are building a little more units than household size, as Patriotz says.

So, this restriction of supply is definitely not the cause of high home prices. Neither is immigartion, as we are building more homes than new population growth.

Link to Ben’s article “Debunking the Supposed Drivers of Vancouver’s Crazy Real Estae Market”;

http://archive-com.com/page/2633306/2013-08-16/http://theeconomicanalyst.com/content/debunking-supposed-drivers-vancouvers-crazy-real-estate-market

patriotz
Member

@166:

I should also add I’m pro-ALR, the simplest reason being that almost all of it in the Lower Mainland is floodplain.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Pro.
And don’t get me started with that we need more land or more bridges or roads.

patriotz
Member

@168: “What about starting a thread about restrictions on housing supply, such as transportation or the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR)?”

If there were an actual restriction on housing supply rents would be outpacing incomes, which they aren’t. Also statistics show that building of new units exceeds household formation.

This is another variation on the “running out of land” theme which comes up in almost all bubbles. There is only one cause for prices being out of line with rents and that’s buyers willing and able to pay them.

Seafair Dweller
Guest
Seafair Dweller

OK guys, so I think we’ve exhausted the immigration debate for now.

What about starting a thread about restrictions on housing supply, such as transportation or the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR)? Would opening more land for building, or making it easier to commute from longer distances reduce the pressure on housing prices?

Here’ a link to a map of ALR land in the Lower Mainland. There is even ALR land in Vancouver!

http://www.alc.gov.bc.ca/mapping/alr_maps/Metro_Vancouver/Index_Map_Metro_Vancouver.pdf

Are you pro or anti-ALR? Debate please!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

#162

Good article, I agree 100% with this assessment.

“Finally, we’ve become jerks. We used to be a pretty friendly town, but now we cut each other off in traffic, nearly run down pedestrians in crosswalks and everyone is angry all the time. It’s part of what the late U.S. ethologist John Calhoun called “behavioural sink” — the decline in civility that results from overcrowding. I’ve taken to calling the city of my birth the “City of D-bags,” not that I’m proud of it. And I never thought I’d say this growing up here, but one day I’ll probably leave.”

City of D-bags is spot on.

crikey
Guest
crikey
@space889 #160 “Is that about sum it up???” If your point was that different people think differently, congratulations and eureka, I think you’ve got it! Thank you for collecting many of the varying opinions and thoughts in one place, even if tongue-in-cheek. There is no one single collective groupthink on this site (or in any place for that matter). Indeed there is quite a variation of opinions here. Nobody here agrees with everybody else all of the time. But your tone seems to suggest that you think everybody here moves together in their opinions.(but yourself, perhaps?). Can you show me a single person here who has bounced around the many opinions you have listed? Not that you should care about the downvotes, but that tone is what probably has people voting that comment down. There isn’t a single person here… Read more »
Suki
Guest
Suki

@space889

You should get laid or go for a massage in some of local parlours, to much tension, relax.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi