FFFA! Rentals, Repairs, Indexes

Hey it’s the end of another work week!

And if you’ve been here before you know what that means: It’s Friday Free-for-all time!

This when we do our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Why don’t you buy already?
Marketing! Buzzwords!
Record debt, but no worries
Include transportation costs
And maintenance costs
Toronto beats Vancouver in crazy?
Vancouver island buyer or seller market?

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Snake
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Snake

Many Franks Says: March 31st, 2014 at 4:42 pm 237
Barbara Yaffe discovers renting. Contains a few groaners. Renting a place may be the last, best real estate bargain and a majority of the city’s residents are taking full advantage
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Barbara+Yaffe+Rising+cost+Vancouver+houses+means+worthwhile+rent/9683256/story.html

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2013 Greater Vancouver Apartment Building Market Review full report

http://goodmanreport.com/content/The%20Goodman%20Report_email.pdf

anon321
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anon321

By contrast, condos in SF are now over 1k a square feet. In NYC, in the nicer parts of town, you can barely rent a 2 br for 10K a month. In SF, rents are similarly sky high (now they’re about 4.50 per sq foot, or for a 800 sq foot apartment, about 3600 a month).

You are full of it. A simple search on Craigslist in the desirable areas shows the same rent prices as Vancouver or lower.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

# 247
in the early 90s, Vancouver City Savings went almost into bankruptcy due to the same reckless lending practices that bankrupted Orange County.
Now they are given it another try.
Where is the fricking FICOM?

blah-blah-blah
Guest
blah-blah-blah

“I think a lot of you are missing the point about the real source of developers’ influence and especially Gillespie’s. What matters far more to council is what that developer can do for them. Gillespie brought the Telus head office to Vancouver and made the Vision council look good — like it was reviving what had been a downtown in a slump. He made the previous COPE council look good by making Woodward’s work, according to their complex set of goals (social housing, save heritage, provide a public space etc etc).

The whole money thing is a distraction from understanding how mayors and councils interact with developers and why their interests often converge.”

http://www.francesbula.com/uncategorized/developer-ian-gillespie-this-is-going-to-sound-arrogant-but-no-one-else-is-willing-to-do-what-im-doing/#comment-2434062

CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder

Sorry that should have been Sydney prices up 13% since last June, the rest of the country will catch up soon.

CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder

This may just be a coincidence, maybe the IIP cancellation isn’t shifting Chinese investment money from Canada to Australia, but RP Data just released their March price results… and Australian real estate saw the biggest monthly price increase in the 18 years of the series, up 2.3%. Prices are now up 13% since last June, onwards and upwards to infinity!

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/04/full-rp-data-march-house-price-release/

Of course with all this frothy activity the bubble warnings are coming out, the big story in the media yesterday was that prices may fall 10%. What a disaster, that would wipe out the last 7-8 months of price gains…

Foreigner
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Foreigner

@Rockets Star

I also make a lot of money in my profession. I also invest the money I make as I don’t spend much but yeah, investing isn’t rocket science. Buy big blue chip stocks. Reinvest dividends. Keep costs low.

@minotaur

That’s my point. Rents are low here because people have low incomes here (relative to prices). This is why there is a big problem in the market, a fundamental disconnect. It’s fine if people keep buying from overseas. But if that money dries up, we are in trouble.

No Noise
Guest
No Noise

Now 4 white swans – according to Global news, Vancity is offering CMHC guaranteed loans to cover half of downpayment requirement. Good god. Black swan please just to knock some sense into these people..

minotaur3
Member

@240

By contrast, condos in SF are now over 1k a square feet. In NYC, in the nicer parts of town, you can barely rent a 2 br for 10K a month. In SF, rents are similarly sky high (now they’re about 4.50 per sq foot, or for a 800 sq foot apartment, about 3600 a month).

And what are the median incomes in those areas of SF and NYC? I assume you’re referring to Silicon Valley and Manhattan.

paulb
Member

New Listings 289
Price Changes 119
Sold Listings 163
TI:15494

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley

@Fixie#184

“Vancouver has been pushed … by three ‘white swans’ in a row.”

Racist prick.

Rockets Star
Guest
Rockets Star

….When I first bought here I had a dp of about 300K on a property worth 1.1 million a few years ago. If I had invested that instead and rented, I could’ve had a downpayment of over a million dollars now….

Wow, you could have turned that $300k into over a million in after tax dollars in 6 years. You really shouldn’t be wasting your time posting on this blog, you should be giving investing seminars.

Joe Mainlander
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Joe Mainlander

@242. Very true re property taxes. In CoV they are very skewed with businesses and higher density resi areas taking more of a hit in comparison to the space/infrastructure they take up. It’s a 9 to2 business to resi ratio, one of the highest in North America.

No doubt low density single family areas, taking up more roads/transit/pipes/services etc. per hectare, and are subsidized by businesses and more efficient higher density resi.

If these single family folks, especially in low density Point Grey areas, would pay full value for services per hectare they take up, that would certainly shake things up. However, they vote and have more influence so I doubt it will hapeen.

But, some folks are on this issue;

http://fairtaxcoalition.com/property-tax-basics/municipal-tax-rates/

Melba
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Melba

…. can tell you that Vancouver real estate is considered dirty cheap compared to real estate in other major world class….

I had to stop reading there. Things must be slow: Bob Rennie is posting again.

What I’d like to know is how Vancouver prices compare to other ‘OK’ cities in rainforests.

The Deal
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The Deal
Vancouver isn’t experiancing immigration from Asia. Vancouver is experiancing an economic arbritage. People make money in a lowe income tax, no social saftey net enviroment. They take that money, move to vancouver and retire early, enjoying a social saftey net paid for by others. Their children get a subsidized university education, and then go back to Asia to work. (Thousands of Chinese-Canadians lured back to Hong Kong by better job prospects than Vancouver can offer http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/27/chinese-canadians-lured-back-to-hong-kong-by-better-job-prospects/) For these people, integration is a hinderance, because becoming Canadian will only hold you back when you seek oppertunities in a completely different culture. This isn’t immigration, it is exploting an arbitrage of income tax and social saftey nets in two different juristictions. It is a cold, calculated ecnomic move. But, “The Deal”, what about all those Canadians who go to the USA to… Read more »
foreigner
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foreigner
Hi all, interesting discussion. Here’s a perspective from an outsider. I moved here in 2008. I can tell you that Vancouver real estate is considered dirty cheap compared to real estate in other major world class cities. It’s NOT affordable (local incomes are low), but for a wealthy person, 2-5 million dollars buying a HUGE lot and a HUGE house is considered cheap. By contrast, condos in SF are now over 1k a square feet. In NYC, in the nicer parts of town, you can barely rent a 2 br for 10K a month. In SF, rents are similarly sky high (now they’re about 4.50 per sq foot, or for a 800 sq foot apartment, about 3600 a month). The interesting thing I noticed when I moved here was how cheap property taxes were. I was paying only 3800 a… Read more »
Joe Mainlander
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Joe Mainlander
Spell it Out
Guest
Spell it Out
@231 If we are going to start claiming that it’s people getting > 10 x income then a little bit of data to support this would be nice. Otherwise it theory and supposition like anything else. @232 Immigration per se DOES NOT cause ‘house price madness’ as you put it. Immigration per se HAS NOT caused ‘house price madness’ in Vancouver. @231 Of course cheap credit has been in effect. I simply question our ability / historical ability to obtain cheap credit at the large levels and amounts necessary to sustain our SFH housing market – given our poor median income. I’d like a little more evidence of the large scale > 10 X income mortgage approvals, of which you claim existed. And what about recently? If the above were true, why have prices or at least sales not U-turned… Read more »
Many Franks
Member
Active Member
Barbara Yaffe discovers renting. Contains a few groaners. Renting a place may be the last, best real estate bargain and a majority of the city’s residents are taking full advantage Vancouver rents have remained reasonable in part because of a 2.2-per-cent limit on annual increases imposed by the provincial government. NO! Bad Barbara. In a recent bulletin, [David and Mark Goodman] report Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation numbers that demonstrate it’s 32.5-per-cent cheaper to rent rather than own a one-bedroom unit in Vancouver. “The gap increases considerably once strata fees, maintenance costs and taxes are taken into account.” WTF kind of buy/rent comparison EXCLUDES strata/maintenance and tax? Apartment building owners in Vancouver since 2007 have faced a municipal moratorium on the demolition of rental housing stock, and are reluctant to evict tenants in order to do needed upgrades. Renoviction. When… Read more »
Joe Mainlander
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Joe Mainlander

My post seems to be stuck in moderation. So I will try again without the data links.

Re; comments on folks in Van unable to afford $1 million plus homes, those high end sales only make up a small percent of home sales. Home sales over $1 million only make up 10% of total Metro Van sales. It’s the other 90% of sales below $1 million that is driving the market.

In fact, between 2007-2011, 30% of sales north of Fraser, and 55% of sales south of Fraser considered ‘affordable’ ($355k-$385k). (GVRD’s – Metro Vancouver Housing Data Book)

There are lot more low end sales driving this market than high end sales.

space889
Member
space889
btw, the reason multi-factors model exists is because not everything in the world boils down nicely to a black and white interpretation of a -> b, or (a, b) -> c. If it were that simple then a lot of people would be out of jobs cuz you wouldn’t need all the brain and computing powers to solve various problems. Also, there is absolutely no reason why cheap credit should affect Winnipeg or Toronto housing prices the same way or to the same degree as Vancouver housing. Simple analogy, a 1% increase in short term interest rate has different effects on Fed, Provincial, and corporate bonds. Even Fed bonds with maturity of 5 years vs 30 years will be affected differently. If you base your bond investment decision on the assumption that low interest rate affects all bonds the same,… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@207: “This BC Stats document (on page 2) states that Vancouver’s Visible Minority population was 16.9% in 1986”

That’s Vancouver CMA, which can be confirmed from the text just below the chart:

Of the 230,000 net new Vancouver residents between 1991 and 1996, 4 of 5 were visible minorities.

I don’t have a number, but having lived in CoV in 1986 I’m sure the visible minority population was a good deal over 16.9%.

space889
Member
space889

All this math is getting complicated…can someone rephrase all this stuff in CommonCore understandable math and English steps?? Thanks 🙂

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

@#220 & 222.

The thing is, home sales over $1 million only make up 10% of total Metro Van sales. It’s the other 90% of sales below $1 million that is driving the market.

2500 homes sold over $1 million in Greater Vancouver.
http://www.vancouversun.com/mobile/business/news/Housing+prices+continue+rise+fourth+quarter+Lepage/9369086/story.html

1600 homes over $2 million sold in Greater Vancouver during 2013.
http://remaxoa.com/14/PR/UE/UE_RPT_2014.pdf#20288645

28,500 homes were sold in Greater Van in 2013.
http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports?month=December&year=2013

Royce McCutcheon
Guest
Royce McCutcheon
@220: In all sincerity, how do you answer the following questions based on your position? – It’s been noted here that the % of visible minorities here has tripled in ~30 years, yet the real housing price madness is a product of the last ~10 years in particular. If memory serves, immigration rates (which we’re assuming are related to this visible minority figure) have not spiked on that 10 year timeline (in fat, they may have been lower over the past decade in comparison to the decade before). How do you explain the absence of such steep year-over-year price increases for many years for the first two decades after the mid-80s before the last decade’s run-up (which coincides with mortgage lending changes, record low interest rates, record debt levels, and huge price run-ups across the country)? – And if Vancouver’s… Read more »