FFFA! End of boom, TFW, Teranet, Banks

It’s the end of another week!

That means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all. This is our news round up and open topic discussion thread for the long weekend.  Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Scotiabank: bubble warning
BMO: bubble warning
TD Bank: bubble warning
RBC: bubble warning
CIBC: data warning
Pimco: bubble warning
Teranet stays flat in march
Open houses – true or false?
Import workers for $11/hour?
More complaints over TFW
Ka-shing dumps china property
New Zealand targets affordability
Sunshine coast sales challenge

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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patriotz
Member
LL
Guest
LL

Probably why dead pigs float down their rivers. The place is the most disgusting hell hole on the planet. USSR was civilized.

RFM
Guest
RFM

If the ‘official’ Environmental ‘Protection’ Ministry admits that 16.1% of China’s soil and 19.4% of its arable land is contaminated with cadmium, nickel and arsenic, what REALLY is the situation? I stopped buying any produce or food products of any type from China some time ago. You should too, if you want to live to see the bust of the Vancouver real estate market :)!

RealityCheck
Guest
RealityCheck
Patriots said: “The true cause of this bubble is government policies (CMHC, banking, taxation) as they have been everywhere else.” Actually no. Its concentrated immigration. Here’s why: 1) Mulroney dramatically increased immigration numbers in 1986 and prices in Vancouver and Toronto started their ascent. 2) in 2003, temp immigration programs were brought into the mainstream and resulted in even more people (not counted by stats can) coming in and houses started going up even more. 3) in 2005, immigration brought in Provincial PNP immigration programs and prices in Calgary, Saskatoon, etc. And prairie farmland went vertical. 4) Montreal did not experience a boom because most immigrants leave there after getting their passports stamped. 5) the run up in prices from 2003-2008 and from 1986 to early 90’s was at a time of high interest rates. I can go on but… Read more »
Johnny-boy
Guest
Johnny-boy

In case you missed last night’s late night post. Some more brave souls are speaking out
http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1372813/born-china-joy-mo-blames-rich-mainlanders-vancouvers-housing-woes

Jin Won Choi
Guest
Jin Won Choi

I run a financial site myself, and one of my readers sent me this rent vs. buy calculator. It’s the most comprehensive rent vs buy calculator I’ve ever seen.

http://www.moneygeek.ca/weblog/2014/04/17/ultimate-buy-vs-rent-calculator/

anon321
Guest
anon321

#5 – could not agree more with this article. Immigration needs serious strict moderation and policing. Too many corrupt opportunists have made their way into Canada and provide absolutely nothing in return.

patriotz
Member

@4: “Mulroney dramatically increased immigration numbers in 1986 and prices in Vancouver and Toronto started their ascent.”

Toronto peaked in 1988 and went into the biggest RE crash in post-WWII history.

Had the immigrants stopped coming?

Johnny-boy
Guest
Johnny-boy
Reality check. You and Patriotz are both right. Fact housing gone up across Canada and even in areas where there is near zero immigration. That must be due to low rates and CHMC being doubled and 5% down Fact with an aging population we do need immigrtion, and that will put pressure on areas where there is relative limitation of supply. Fact we have had major investment in our RE, since it is safe and easy to buy. Many of these buyers are not even immigrants. They are just here to get their money out. One top Westside Realtor estimated that 70% of homes were being sold to Asian investors. That tallies with what I have seen in West Van. So what we had here was dry tinder added onto the fire. BTW to demonize a group is 100% wrong.… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@10: “It is our leaders that made multiple major mistakes that got us here.”

They weren’t “mistakes”, they were political strategies intended to make middle class homeowners feel richer.

What got us here is the desire of property owners (mostly owner-occupiers) to get something for nothing.

Jon
Guest
Jon

China’s insatiable demand for Canada’s commodities for the past 15 years had a lot to do with our price run up.

Case in point, oil was $10 bucks a barrel 15 year ago.

loopholio
Guest
loopholio

Suspected money laundering rampant at B.C. casinos: report

Confidential documents are shedding light on a host of suspicious behaviour at B.C. casinos, where patrons routinely carry bags loaded with small bills onto the gaming floor.

Government reports obtained by CTV News highlight dozens of instances of suspected money laundering and loan sharking, most at the River Rock Casino in Richmond.

Read more: http://bc.ctvnews.ca/suspected-money-laundering-rampant-at-b-c-casinos-report-1.1769342#ixzz2zG9qIueU

patriotz
Member

@12:

The US imports much more of the same commodities from Canada and had a bigger run up than Canada prior to 2007.

Did the effect get inverted south of the border?

Speaking of oil, how come RE prices (nominal) in Edmonton are still below the 2007 peak and the lowest among big Canadian cities?

crikey
Guest
crikey

@#10
The joke is on them – so many so-called ‘owners’ are anything but. until the place is paid, it is nothing but hopes and fantasy… and praying that take home pay isn’t cut by layoff, divorce,death,etc for the next 25 years. Stats about ‘owners’ should be separated into stats about ‘home owners’ and ‘home debtors’.

Unfortunately, the joke is on everyone else as well. Appeasing all that greedy fantasy has severely jeopardized our entire economy. And all of us are on the hook for any bad cmhc loans that have bankrolled this too. Pure political genius

Jon
Guest
Jon
@Patriotz I’m by no means saying commodities are the sole reason prices went so high, but that you don’t consider them seems strange. I’m guessing because it doesn’t fit well with who you are trying to blame. In other words it would be hard for you to sell Harper as the culprit for making oil go from $10 to over $100. “ had a bigger run up than Canada prior to 2007.” Many US cities had peaked by 05/06 and were already falling by 2007 in small part due to rising oil prices helping to drain American consumers. Meanwhile cities like Edmonton & Calgary fully doubled between 2005 and 2008 during oils rise from around $50 to $150. “Speaking of oil, how come RE prices (nominal) in Edmonton are still below the 2007 peak and the lowest among big Canadian… Read more »
golfer
Guest
golfer

Will probably get downvoted for this but East Vancouver and Burnaby still have many homes selling for above ask… I have no idea when this insanity will end…

I do believe it has to end sometime, just hope it doesn’t last much longer.

patriotz
Member

@14: “I’m by no means saying commodities are the sole reason prices went so high, but that you don’t consider them seems strange.”

Why should I consider rising commodity prices a reason for rising RE prices in Canada when so many commodity importers, from the US to Ireland to Spain to Singapore, have also seen rising RE prices over the same period?

If it was really about commodity prices RE prices in those countries would have fallen, wouldn’t they?

yeee haw
Guest
yeee haw

patriotz is a died in the wool Liberal lover. he has a poster of justin truedo in his bedroom.

of course he hates the conservitives and would blame them for his cold sores, if he could.

yeee haw
Guest
yeee haw

btw, google “river rock casino money laundering” to see what the latest scam our buddies are pulling.

Johnny-boy
Guest
Johnny-boy

We are all pissing in the wind here. As I have said before the wealth of society is filtered up to a small % at the top. It is what it is.

Here is the deal the new CEO of Roger’s got. This includes a $10 Million signing bonus!

“Mr. Laurence, who started on Dec. 2, took home total compensation for 2013 of $12.7-million, which includes pro-rated amounts for salary, share- and option-based awards, pension, and other benefits for the year.”

In the US there is an article in the New York Times that the Ultra Rich (income $10 Million a year and more) pay a lower % of tax than the cohorts below them due to loop-holes and tax-shleters and investments.

That’s after 5 years of Obama!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“Superpower of the future? Or today’s USSR?”

Worse than the USSR ever was.

While both treated their people despicably and polluted their environments mercilessly, at least we never had to put up with the USSR flooding our country with garbage products and even worse people.

21st century China: #1 shithole in all of human history.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#9
Fact with an aging population we do need immigration.
——————–
please tell how bringing in parents and grandparents will help.

patriotz
Member

@18: “That’s after 5 years of Obama!”

Read the US Constitution and see who has the power to make laws.

Now I’m not saying that’s its certain that things would be any different if Obama was able to get everything he wants from Congress, but look how hard it was for him to get Obamacare passed at a time when the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress (they no longer do). And Obamacare is to the right of anything any Canadian government would do.

Maritza
Guest
Maritza

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patriotz
Member

Who needs a real economy? Take it from Rob Ford:

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford says his city is “booming” since he took office and the number of construction cranes in the sky are the proof.

Rob Ford’s ‘cranes in the sky’ line examined by economists

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