Canada, economy, equity, prices

How badly would a correction hurt you?

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The Globe and Mail now has a housing price correction calculator so you can see what kind of effects a rise or drop in the market would have on your home:

Much larger price declines happened long enough ago that the most recent crop of buyers may not have any recollection of them. In Calgary, troubles in the oil patch caused a house price decline from $107,739 on average in 1981 to $80,462 in 1985, or about 25 per cent. After a few years of rampant speculation in Toronto, the average resale home price fell from $254,197 in 1989 to $195,311 in 1995, or 23 per cent. Vancouver, always a volatile market, plunged more than 25 per cent in a year in the early 1980s and has a couple of times fallen more than 6 per cent in a year.

Want to see what a 25-per-cent decline would look like in today’s market? Our Correction Calculator shows you the numbers for the Canadian market as a whole, as well as the Big Three markets of Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto.

Here’s the original article and here’s the calculator.

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Don Lapre
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Don Lapre
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FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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4 years 4 months ago
crikey
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Found buried in a new Maclean’s article: “The average Canadian house price last month was $406,372, compared to a median of US$189,000 in the U.S. (The average price of a condo in Canada was $312,800 in February, compared to US$187,900 in the U.S.)” That’s right people — Not only do we make a much lower income in Canada, and pay higher taxes, and pay more for food and other goods(hence the border lineups), and have mostly have far less attractive weather (i.e., higher heating bills, etc), but it also costs twice as much to buy a house in Canada, and about 50% more to buy a condo in Canada, than in the U.S. This is in our country with far less population buildup pressure than the USA — we have only 10% of their population to put on our for… Read more »
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4 years 4 months ago
4SlicesofCheese
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http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2014/04/timeline-canadian-housing-bubble.html

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4 years 4 months ago
patriotz
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From previous thread:

“So, if there is one ethical group that is suffering badly from this bubble, it is actually the Chinese.”

Supply your own comment. 🙂

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4 years 4 months ago
Burnabonian
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No hat tip to VREAA?

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4 years 4 months ago
Joe Mainlander
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“How badly would a correction hurt you?”

Of course, that headline is aimed at the 70% who own their homes and think they are rich because the assets they happen to sit on have been inflated.

Better headline would be, “How much would a correction help your children?” But, the media is not going spin it that way.

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4 years 4 months ago
Joe Mainlander
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I like the graph that says, “Note how the housing market’s big run since the mid-1990s coincides with a long decline in mortgage rates.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/housing-price-calcualtor-how-would-a-correction-affect-your-selling-price/article18079370/#dashboard/follows/

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4 years 4 months ago
Jon
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crikey #2 said
“This is in our country with far less population buildup pressure than the USA”

Canada actually has far more population pressure than the USA since our immigration rates are much higher – more than double the USA.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2112rank.html

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4 years 4 months ago
Aston
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I don’t disagree with you about the bubble, Crikey, but I don’t think middle-class Canadians can claim to make less than Americans these days:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/canadas-middle-class-now-worlds-richest-study-suggests/article18090490/

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4 years 4 months ago
crikey
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@#9
Tell that to all the educated people – the ones that are actually in the market for homes.

It is very well know that doctors, nurses, software developers, etc, etc, etc, make much better money in the U.S. than in Canada. There was even a discussion about it on this site last week (about software developers).

When I see a reverse brain drain into Canada, wake me up.

Additionally U.S. states do generally have very low minimum wages, which bring their salary averages down — but people on minimum wage don’t buy houses.

Comparing apples to apples (re: educated in demand careers), Canada pays less. If I’m wrong, please tell me what career Americans are clamoring to get into Canada to work at. Perhaps, as used house salesperson?

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4 years 4 months ago
crikey
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@#8 For population buildup pressure in terms of land mass to population ratio, there is simply no comparison to the U.S. And yes, even when we mostly count borders and coastlines.

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4 years 4 months ago
patriotz
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@10: “Additionally U.S. states do generally have very low minimum wages, which bring their salary averages down”

You mean they bring the median salary down, but that’s what matters for the RE market.

” — but people on minimum wage don’t buy houses.”

Not any more. More generally, I recently saw an item on National Business Report (PBS) on how it is now very hard to get a mortgage in the US without a good credit rating. That’s the main reason why prices there are so much lower today.

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4 years 4 months ago
VanRant
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Re: #8
Lets compare popluation. The US is 32 per sq. km. and in Canada is 3.5. In places like Singapore and Hong Kong, it is around 7 thousand per sq. km. Is there any reason why our housing prices is the highest in the world?

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4 years 4 months ago
4SlicesofCheese
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“I don’t disagree with you about the bubble, Crikey, but I don’t think middle-class Canadians can claim to make less than Americans these days:”

Wait until our bubble bursts. There will be a world of hurt for our middle class then. At the same time the US will have had a head start on their recovery.

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4 years 4 months ago
Son of Ponzi
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Told you so.
Start learning Mandarin now.

http://list.juwai.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Products_2015cookie.png

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4 years 4 months ago
Son of Ponzi
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From juwai.com

Chinese property buyer facts
63.1 million Chinese have the wealth to invest in overseas property.
90 million Chinese search for property online every month.
Less than 1% of mainland Chinese can read English.
China’s property boom has gone international, with strong demand for property in Australia, UK, USA, Canada, Singapore, France, Germany, Cyprus, Malaysia, Thailand, and many more.
70% pay in cash.
Over 60% of China’s wealthy are engaged in overseas investment or immigration.
85% of China’s wealthy want to educate their children overseas.
BLOCKED: Sites not hosted in China are either blocked or experience excessively slow load times.

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4 years 4 months ago
Son of Ponzi
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Here’s the link to this amazing site.
http://list.juwai.com/?ag_kwid=504-3-1d922c23cb56ad27.0b2639f826f4bfa3&gclid=CJnMs7jb970CFQlafgodZHYAEg

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4 years 4 months ago
UBC in crisis mode
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Vancouver properties with price reduction > 10%: ==================== $2,390,000 36 14TH Avenue East, Vancouver, BC V5T 4C9 Hold and prosper. A unique opportunity to invest in a very special property in one of Vancouver’s hottest up-and-coming areas. All unit… Multi Family $498,000 (17.2%) Nov. 26, 2013 Park Georgia Realty Ltd.(Coq) ======================= $2,898,000 # 3802 1028 BARCLAY ST, Vancouver, BC V6E 0B1 Sensational luxury residence at Patina, this most sought after luxury building in downtown Vancouver. This magnificent 1819 square foot… Condo/Apt – 1,819 Sqft. – 2 Beds – 3.0 Baths $590,000 (16.9%) March 1, 2014 Angell Hasman (Malcolm Hasman) ================================= $2,988,000 982 W 57TH AV, Vancouver, BC V6P 1S3 A truly majestic family residence of grand proportions with a commanding presence and location.The family focused spaces of this superb… House – 5,189 Sqft. – 6 Beds – 6.0 Baths $600,000… Read more »
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4 years 4 months ago
DaMann
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Why are people so concerned with price reductions? I doesn’t really mean anything or indicate anything. Most of these properties are listed with extra high list prices anyways. Sold price is the only thing that tells us anything.

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4 years 4 months ago
LL
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“So, if there is one ethical group that is suffering badly from this bubble, it is actually the Chinese.”

A) this group is largely responsible for the bubble

B) they are the least ethical group there is

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4 years 4 months ago
Son of Ponzi
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#19
it’s mostly psychological.
Once buyers see a price drop, they will think the seller is getting soft and start lowballing.
And once the momentum shifts downwards, watch out below.

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4 years 4 months ago
patriotz
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McDonald’s foreign worker practices halted in face of investigation

McDonald’s Canada is putting its temporary foreign worker program on hold while a third party conducts an audit on its use of the plan.

Stung by recent criticism of its use of foreign workers, the restaurant chain’s vice-president of human resources Len Jillard says the firm needs to pause the program to prove to Canadians it’s not abusing the program or its workers.

Typical corporate damage control. They have known all along that Canadian workers are available to sling their burgers and that any outlet seeking to hire TFW’s must be doing so to take advantage of their vulnerable status.

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4 years 4 months ago
mosessupposes
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Anyone have insight into the lag time between when something shows up as a listing on Paul B’s updates and when it actually shows up on zoocasa or mls?

Looking at zoocasa today it sure doesn’t seem like 400+ listings have been added.

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4 years 4 months ago
Son of Ponzi
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#23
I noticed this, too.

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4 years 4 months ago
paulb
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New Listings 349
Price Changes 125
Sold Listings 256
TI:16286

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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4 years 4 months ago