FFFA! Looooong weekend!

Hey! It’s the end of another week.

That means it’s Friday Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-New home prices down, old up
Apathetic politicians?
Carrick not worried about debt
Low rates for higher prices?
Analysts warn of market froth
Bitter bear
Condo ordered sold over parking

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Reasonfirst
Reasonfirst
6 years ago

…nobody famous has ever lived in vancouver…

Tommy Chong 🙂

Fix
Fix
6 years ago

The baby boomers are in control and they own homes , they are happy for HAM to come and boost house values and throw a little short term money through transfer taxes to pay for their medical costs

crabman
crabman
6 years ago

Joe – The point of my chart was to demonstrate how prices go up when MOI is low (meaning relative high demand and low supply) and prices drop when MOI is high (low demand, high supply). This is true whether rates are high or low, because supply and demand are what set prices, not interest rates.

You’re chart (prices vs. rates) doesn’t show nearly the correlation that mine does:

2000-2005 – Rising prices, falling rates.
2005-2008 – Rising prices, rising rates.
2008-2009 – Falling prices, falling rates.
2009-2011 – Rising prices, falling rates.

If you still don’t believe me, here is what Bill McBride had to say:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/06/house-prices-and-mortgage-rates.html

4SlicesofCheese
4SlicesofCheese
6 years ago

Anyone happen to catch the 2nd phase of station square over the weekend?

1st phase sold out probably because they thought it was going to be all sold at once. I drove by on Sunday and the presentation center was near empty.

Joe Mainlander
Joe Mainlander
6 years ago
Joe Mainlander
Joe Mainlander
6 years ago

@3210 Yes, at the beginning of the bubble this is certainly true. But as everyone gets more access to cash across the board and prices rise, eventually those buyers who couldn’t qualify end up in the same position in the market as before. Asset price inflation.

You chart does not show prices relative to interest rates. Not sure the point of it.

cris
cris
6 years ago

Nimby,

yours is a quality comment.

crabman
crabman
6 years ago

@JoeMainlander – Cheap money affects prices by increasing demand. Buyers can suddenly qualify who couldn’t qualify before. People don’t pay more for a home just because rates go down.

There is a high correlation between MOI and price increases, independent of interest rates.

http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/842237409.png?1394063692

NIMBY King
NIMBY King
6 years ago

I was behind an idiot at the self checkout at Superstore yesterday. The lady literally took 10 minutes to finish and called over the attendant several times.
If you can’t figure self checkout, go back t your own country damit!

Celeste
Celeste
6 years ago

I do trust all oof the ideas you’ve introduced for your post.
They are very convincing and can certainly work. Still, the posts are very brief for starters.
May just you please extend them a little from subsequent
time? Thank you for the post.

Feell fre to visit myy websife … Headhunters Orange County

victory
victory
6 years ago

@199
“in the history of vancouver nobody famous has ever lived in vancouver or ever will….”

Um … Howard Hughes?

Joe Mainlander
Joe Mainlander
6 years ago

@#203. Even if supply matches demand (local, foreign, whatever) if there was an injection of cash into the market due to cheap money policies there would be asset price inflation in housing.

I.E. if the govt handed everyone who wanted to buy a home $200k, home prices would rise by $200k, even if supply and demand were balanced. That is not exactly what has happened, but the govt has made it easier for all to access more borrowed money, hence asset price inflation.

david
david
6 years ago

Anyone who thinks that driving a new, conspicuously expensive vehicle is a sign of wealth is almost certainly the exact idiot who never will be. Vancouver’s car market of McFerrari’s are the “fries” that go with the McMansion (such as it is).

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Bull! Bull! Bull!
6 years ago

lol, the fact that bears can’t even get their foreign money story straight tells me the HAM isn’t going to stop and the crash will never come. it’s like keystone cops in here.

crabman
crabman
6 years ago

We don’t need to over-analyze the way foreign money affects prices. It’s all about supply and demand. If we are building enough homes to satisfy local demand, then any significant amount of outside buying could increase demand enough to drive up prices.

As an example, suppose we build 10,000 new housing units to meet the expected demand of 10,000 household formations. If we have an extra 1,000 buyers, then supply will be too low and prices should increase. It doesn’t really matter if those extra 1,000 buyers are unexpectedly leaving their parent’s basement or bringing suitcases full of cash from overseas.

patriotz
6 years ago

@191: ” Let’s say it’s true that HAM investors only buy “luxury” homes worth more than $2 million. The people who are selling them these homes end up with a big chunk of change which they can then use to outbid other prospective buyers of more modestly priced real estate”

The people selling West Side houses aren’t moving to townhouses in Langley. If they are downsizing they are moving to condos in the West Side.

Are some of them helping out their kids to buy townhouses in Langley? Probably, but as I said this phenomenon can’t go on indefinitely. And there just aren’t that many of them.

patriotz
6 years ago

@197: “Vancouver has the highest umber of luxury automobiles per capita in North America.

That tells me that there is a lot of foreign wealth here.”

Or perhaps a lot of pretentious poseurs.

nufio
nufio
6 years ago

no its like someone bought a ford escape and in 10 years it became a maserati so he sells it and buys a bmw

tedeastside
tedeastside
6 years ago

in the history of vancouver nobody famous has ever lived in vancouver or ever will….

Joe Mainlander
Joe Mainlander
6 years ago

@#197 Yes, but the cost of a Ford Escape starts at 23k. Same as in 2005. No trickle down.

Oracle
Oracle
6 years ago

Vancouver has the highest umber of luxury automobiles per capita in North America.

That tells me that there is a lot of foreign wealth here. Go out on a weekday between 11-3 pm and check out the non-working class. The locals are salaried workers…which equates to the relatively low income in vancouver.

And TedEastSide, high profile movie stars and singers ARE buying homes in Vancouver.

tedeastside
tedeastside
6 years ago

so who are the global elite moving to vancouver
i dont see any big names or important people like Mel Gibson, Brad Pitt Charlie Sheen or Lebron James or Henry Kissinger moving to Vancouver

vancouver is just nobody’s , nobody famous has ever lived in vancouver

Joe Mainlander
Joe Mainlander
6 years ago

The NY article made the assumption about luxury home buyers driving the market. I was referring specifically to that and pointing out that, if true, luxury homes sales amount to a small number of sales; about 5%. The trickle down would be negligible. Sotheby’s used the $2 million cut off. Seems reasonable, but if you think it should be higher, then the % would be even smaller. Think of it this way, George, if there was a run on high end car sales, that may cause the price of Bentleys and Lambourginis to go up, but that that would have no effect on the price of a Ford Focus. That would be driven by mid-market sales, As long as sales of mid-market cars remained the same and the auto makers kept up the same production, mid-market cars prices would remain… Read more »

Maria
Maria
6 years ago
mac
mac
6 years ago

You tw*ts are STILL arguing about the existence of global hot money and calling each other racists? Shiz. Who is it that thinks the luxury market only propels the luxury market? I think you could bank on the fact that if a geezer with one foot in the grave bought a house in the 70s and sells it for 5 million they will help their 3 kids buy 3 properties in Vancouver.