FFFA! Looooong weekend!

Hey! It’s the end of another week.

That means it’s Friday Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-New home prices down, old up
Apathetic politicians?
Carrick not worried about debt
Low rates for higher prices?
Analysts warn of market froth
Bitter bear
Condo ordered sold over parking

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

anyone else notice people in California look healthy and happy

and people in vancouver look unhealthy and miserable

any theories why….i could name many

George
Guest
George

Bob Rennie in the news again, talking about how baby boomers are sitting on $163 billion worth in property. From the Vancouver Sun:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+baby+boomers+sitting+billion+property/9844270/story.html

George
Guest
George

Meanwhile, a Bank of Montreal report argues that millennials are richer than their baby boomer parents were when they were their age:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/millennials-richer-than-their-parents-were-at-their-age-bmo-report-1.2644833

Bo Xilai
Member
Bo Xilai

#2 George… Yeah, as if those piles of sticks and bricks will be worth 163B when the baby boomers all want to sell in their 70s and 80s.

The Vancouver Real Estate exit doors won’t be wide enough…

I told my 64 year old sister (who lives out East) – “Sell now, you don’t want to be the last baby boomer selling your house.”

Dave
Member

#1 tedeastside…. That’s interesting because miserable people there say the same thing about us.

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

Stupid.

The contention that savers were “left behind” because all the speculators were made rich through housing appreciation.

Not one of them becomes rich until the day that they sell their house and KEEP the proceeds.

Which almost all of them can’t, or won’t, or both.

So there it is. For the record, most property speculators are NOT rich. Even tulip speculators had a more obvious and likely path to wealth.

patriotz
Member

@2:

The answer, he suggested, is that over the next 15 years, they will be increasingly helping their Gen-X and Gen-Y children buy into housing while looking to “move down” into a smaller footprint. Rennie said 40 per cent of first-time homebuyers already get deposit and down payment help from parents and grandparents.

Of course with a little thought you can see that this means prices are unsustainable. Eventually the “equity generation” will die out and prices will have to revert to levels sustainable by income. In particular, when those boomers eventually sell the houses they’ve bled the equity from.

RFM
Guest
RFM

More dubious jibber jabber and prognostications from Bob Rennie.
“Statistics laden” presentation? Yeh, sure, whatever his staff could cook up.
I no longer believe any of it from him.
He lives in what I call a ‘created reality’ where the appearance of the world is fogged by his wealth and success. He surrounds himself with the same and they feed on each other. Anyone who has a full-time curator and staff of 4 JUST to manage his art collection does not live in the real world occupied by most of us.
End of rant. Carry on.

MarKoz
Member

Rennie’s argument that the market will be supported by Boomers down-sizing and using the balance to help their kids onto the property ladder assumes that said Boomers don’t need that balance to live off in retirement. That does not appear to be the case: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/expanded-cpp-essential-to-boost-inadequate-retirement-savings-report-finds/article18130135/#dashboard/follows/

Softy
Guest
Softy

“Of course with a little thought you can see that this means prices are unsustainable. Eventually the “equity generation” will die out and prices will have to revert to levels sustainable by income. In particular, when those boomers eventually sell the houses they’ve bled the equity from.”

Over the last decade you have seen Baby Boomers on the west side sell their houses at astronomical prices to rich foriegners (who come from places with much higher economic growth and very low taxes). Why will this not continue?

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

Rich foreigners eh?

What does that mean?

Have any statistics to support it, or is it just a combination of anecdote, wishful thinking, confirmation bias, xeonophobia, entitled Canadian exceptionalism, and old fashioned racism?

(Not that I in any way doubt your thesis.)

Dave
Member

Burnabonian, just go for a walk and experience the statistics yourself.

That’s got nothing to do with xenophobia or racism, it’s just the way it is.

crabman
Guest
crabman

“Why will this not continue?”

It might continue for a while. Then what? Either the foreign money flow stops and the house of cards collapses, or people with any sense will move away and/or stop coming here. Either way, the future doesn’t look to good for this city.

Dave
Member

patriot (7), prices are being sustained by income. Believe it or not, banks have lending requirements, some even mandated by law.

This boomer theory sounds like something Garth Turner would push. I haven’t been checking in a lot here, but I’m curious if he’s still being hailed as a guru. lol.

Dave
Member

Burnabonian, to be balanced, I do think that the average Canadian has the Chinese immigrants stereotyped wrong. A lot of people think all the Chinese that come here are bringing suitcases of cash and that’s definitely not the case. In fact, I’d say the suitcase money immigrants are the exception by a long shot, but it’s still significant enough that the demographic is driving prices up west of Main.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

>A lot of people think all the Chinese that come here are bringing suitcases of cash and that’s definitely not the case. In fact, I’d say the suitcase money immigrants are the exception by a long shot, but it’s still significant enough that the demographic is driving prices up west of Main.

nope.

Chinese immigrants run up and down the social ladder. from dirt poor, to super rich, and everything in between.

but understand this, even the ‘middle class’ ones have a lot of cash. they have too. they came from a place with no social safety nest and no avenues for investment.

they spend that cash on real estate. real estate in richmond, vancouver, burnaby, coquitlam. it isn’t strictly a west side thing.

as long as HAM is coming in, i’ll be a bull.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

oh yeah, and not paying tax sure helps the bank account out bid the the local yokels 😉

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

$136,000 watch catches border guard’s attention

http://www.richmondreview.com/news/256097431.html?mobile=true

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

Stupid.

Without statistics your guesses and assumptions are as good as random. Because those statistics are not published.

You might as well blame astrology, the weather, or show your true colours and just blame an ethnic group that you don’t like.

Oh wait that’s what you are actually doing.

Stupid.

crabman
Guest
crabman

Burbonian – The government won’t give us stats. And why would they? The bubble is good as far as they’re concerned. It’s one of the main drivers of the economy right now, and PTT revenues are through the roof. If people had hard proof that foreign money was a big factor in RE, they might demand the government do something to stop it. This would put the economy into recession and increase the provincial deficit by hundreds of millions.

If you want some numbers, you need to rely on non-official data from people like Ian Young who found there are 45,800 Chinese millionaires trying to move to BC.

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1423370/exclusive-vancouver-facing-influx-45000-more-rich-chinese

And anyone who’s been to a $1M+ open house on the West Side knows that a high percentage of the people there speak Mandarin.

mikey
Guest
mikey

Explain to me how come the low end of real estate (condo/townhouse) east of burnaby have not seen a real increase (>10%) in the last year but on the contrary some places are down. I would put the exception around the new green line constructed in coquitlam/port moody. Take a look on mls in Surrey, PoCo etc and you’ll see the inventory … even New West. I guess the price in the suburbs is corelated directly to the prime rate …

Softy
Guest
Softy

“Without statistics your guesses and assumptions are as good as random. Because those statistics are not published.”

Don’t be such a fool. I see an apple on my desk. But I did not write that down on paper. Therefore there is no apple on my desk.

Dave
Member

mikey, that’s how I look at things too. The ‘real’ market is driven by the prime rate for sure.

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