A future based on past results

Here’s an extrapolation for you: Altus group does home appraisal and valuations.

They looked at the numbers and say if everything carries on as usual the average home price on the west side will be 7 million in 10 years.

“If [the current] trend continues, in the year 2024 the average price for older [detached housing] stock could be greater than $2 million on the Eastside and $7 million on the Westside of Vancouver. We are not saying this will happen, we are simply applying the math from the past decade and extrapolating forward to the next decade,” said Pedro Tavares, Altus Group’s director of research, valuation and advisory.

And as any investor will tell you, past performance practically guarantees future results right? So what are you waiting for? Get out there and buy something!

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gzzzzzz
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gzzzzzz
@space889 from the previous thread >“In doing so we will propel ourselves forward to become a truly internationalized commercial centre such as Singapore, New York, Shanghai and London,” she said. singapore is an interesting example. it was part of malaysia kingdoms and eventually became an ethnic chinese colony. they have an interesting set of racial policies. for example: >Singapore maintains a quota system of ethnicities through the Ethnic Integration Policy.[6] By ensuring that each block of units are sold to families from ethnicities roughly comparable to the national average, it seeks to avoid physical racial segregation and formation of ethnic enclaves common in other multi-racial societies. this policy also has the interesting “side effect” of ensuring that chinese are a majority in voting districts. you’ll also see that through it’s immigration policy singapore seeks to maintain it’s over 70% chinese… Read more »
Burnabonian
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Burnabonian

This was my original argument before I knew anything about anything.

Even 7 or 8 years ago, when all I had was my woman’s intuition and a sense of when I was being lead along by a modern P. T. Barnum, it was still all so patently absurd.

I would ask my friends and family, who promised me that 15% annual appreciation was the “new normal(r)”, which would cause me to be “priced out forever(tm)” unless I bought “right fucking now(c)”, to calculate with me these inevitable future home prices.

“You are implying that your house will sell for a billion dollars within your lifetime”, I would say. Well obviously not, they would respond.

WELL THEN WHAT.

The whole thing is so fucking stupid.

kabloona
Member
kabloona

Wow, and some people wonder how low interest rates can go….

😀

Europe’s Central Bank, in historic move, cuts rate below zero; market awaits ‘huge bazooka’

http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/06/05/europes_central_bank_in_historic_move_cuts_rate_below_zero_market_awaits_huge_bazooka.html

“The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate below zero, making the institution the world’s first major central bank to use a negative rate….”

mac
Member
mac

Women’s intuition? It was wrong wasn’t it. I wouldn’t rely on it again if I were you.

oracle
Guest
oracle

I’ve seen population projections of Chinese in the vancouver area over the next 15 years.

Apparently every single SFD home will not be enough to home in Richmond will not be enough to house all Chinese Families. Same with Vancouver.

North Delta prices going to $1 Million as its close to Richmond? Something tells me with the current projections, it is going to happen. About 1 million Chinese will live in greater vancouver in 2031. This includes foreign students etc.

Burnabonian
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Burnabonian

I guess so!

If there’s one thing that’s certain it’s that houses will cost a billion dollars by 2080. Nobody anywhere is denying that.

Also I understand now that I should have bought a condo for $400,000 in 2007 so that I could have bled myself financially all this time rather than saving up all this useless “liquid capital” in “diversified investments”.

You can’t eat a diversified investment. Not even with ketchup.

I should have been a good debtor and spent my money on granite countertops, building re-enveloping, depreciation, and mortgage interest. Because what good is that six-figure sum to me, just sitting there in my RSP and investment accounts.

Anyway next time I’ll use logic.

Janitor Yellen
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Janitor Yellen
Keiser 610 is up now on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbLcW4hGr1Y “second livestock… oculus rift for chickens” “There is a proposal out there to improve the lives of ‘battery’ chickens using oculus rift like virtual reality glasses. …the chickens will be in their congested battery towers of fecal matter.” “They will think they are living free range. They will be virtual free range chickens. Kind of like the [insert country] dream actually. Plugged into [insert mainstream media channels]. Many [insert nationality] will believe what they see around them is a reality in which they are not only free but high earning, wealth creating, goods producing, market soaring, going places people!” [LOL! A PERFECT DESCRIPTION OF THAT NUMBNUTS ‘@lololololz’ FROM YESTERDAY.] “Instead they are no holiday taking, debt loading, scamming, and being scammed people. Living in towers of toxic fecal debt! “so, …the brains… Read more »
elvince
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elvince

Boardwalk said in its 1Q result that they’d like to expand but they don’t see anything of value to buy:
“The demand for Multi-Family Investment Properties in Canada continues to be strong. As a result, capitalization rates continue to remain low and high prices for Multi-Family assets continue to be the trend. The Trust continues to bid on higher quality assets; however, no new apartment acquisitions have been completed to date as the actual transaction prices on these assets would not prove to be in the best interest of the Trust on a risk-adjusted basis.”

http://www.boardwalkreit.com/PressReleases/p2014/pr05142014.pdf Page 7/12

That’s another way to say “We’re being overbid by [deleted expletives] people whenever we try to acquire anything”.

So I’m not saying prices are too high, but I’m saying one of the most professionnaly run residential REIT thinks the prices are too high.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

This thinly veiled promote should a) have and advertorial label placed on it, and b) a forward looking legal disclaimer put on it.

It is disgusting how regurgitating this puerile industry sponsored nonsense passes as independent journalism these days. Shame on you BIV.

patriotz
Member

@8: “So I’m not saying prices are too high, but I’m saying one of the most professionnaly run residential REIT thinks the prices are too high.”

More precisely, they think prices of Multi-Family Investment Properties are too high. However they continue to be much cheaper on a price/rent basis than condos. Those outbidding the REIT’s for MFIP are nowhere near condo buyers in the stupid league.

mac
Member
mac
You gotta love the Chinese government: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/xinhua-news-agency/140604/changing-dynamics-housing-market-normal-official It’s the way it’s supposed to be folks. No mention of the government role of massive money printing and forcing their banks to lend to these suckers who bought 10-100 properties/per family. All their money invested in it one asset, globally. Now the 99%ers of China will get another lesson on who’s connected and who’s not. ‘In fact’, Feng notes, ‘Noting unusual is happening here at all. Things are the way they’re supposed to be. Now move along,’ he hastened to say, standing up and ushering me out the door. Even the government practices typical Chinese customer service. Deny. Deny. Deny. Leave. Leave. Leave. Reminds me when I go to look for a particular skin treatment in China town, some people have it, some don’t but one lady rather than tell me she… Read more »
elvince
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elvince

@patriotz: I just skimmed through boardwalk’s report quickly (don’t own it, just checking bcause I own otheir reits) but I think bwalk also owns a few condos. Not sure how many or why, probably very few.

But I agree the MFIP are nowhere near the same ratios as condos. Even small MFIP (3-5 units) are much cheaper than condos on a P/R basis.

Mick Murphy
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Mick Murphy
lololololololz
Guest
lololololololz

Janitor Yellen,

This blog should be VancouverSourGrapes.info.

We applied for and got our $200K total income jobs fair and square. We are making good incomes and planning for the future with a new house. The best available government and private information tells us we can afford it so we got the loan and a line of credit. We applied for and got our entitlements including loan insurance.

My point about the IT jobs yesterday was that qualified people who apply for the benefits of job and credit can get them as a matter of entitlement. What I see here are bunch of petty vindictive people who have sour grapes because they didn’t even bother to apply for their entitlements.

Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

Lololozlzozloz,

You have not been reading very carefully.

Sounds like you are about as diligent a reader as you are an accountant — i.e. the “gains” that you reported yesterday that are actually losses if a column in your ledger called “costs” is taken into account.

Anyway see what you want amigo; it’s the way of the world. We only go around this crazy life once; you might as well do it ignorant and opiated because it sure as hell beats the alternative.

I would also strongly recommend that you take your (sense of) entitlement down to the bank and apply for some additional mortgages: Bury yourself balls-deep in real estate as soon as you can.

All of us wish this outcome for you.

BWilson
Guest
BWilson
Yup, condo buyers are suckers these days, let’s check out the incentive structures for buyer’s agents to put their “clients” (chumps) into units for the newly completed towers at the north end of the Granville Bridge: 1. Maddox – a building where sales ethics are a core value Unsold developer units: 23 (of 213) Flipper listings: 6 (but it’s early) total units for sale: 29 (13.6% of building) Developer offered commissions: 3.25% first 100k/1.16% balance (standard) + $5k “realtor bonus” So your “buyers agent” has an extra incentive to screw you and put you in this building Buyer (sucker) incentives: Developer willing to negotiate on GST.. but really you should negotiate no GST, demand your $5k sucker bonus as well as the full commission they’d pay to a realtor, and go direct. 2. The Rolston Unsold developer units: 11 (of… Read more »
Burnabonian
Guest
Burnabonian

“The Mark”

I love it!

The perfect name for a Vancouver condo complex being sold to people with half a mil in borrowed money to burn, several years *after* the peak of the condo bubble.

Remember folks: Look around the table. If you can’t tell who the sucker is, it’s you.

cris
Guest
cris

S&P 500 will be 11,000 in 2024, based on last one year performance.

My baby will be the tallest person in history, as he grows one inch/month.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

ECB cuts rates to NEGATIVE -.10%

Wow! First time in history. It will cost you to store money in euros.

Any suggestions what will be the best performing currency in the next year.??

Janitor Yellen
Guest
Janitor Yellen
@19 Oracle. Good question. It’s unlikely one could ever predict which currency will happen to be the last man standing but you could start here on how to protect yourself: http://www.dbxus.com/products/currencies/currency-etfs/powershares-db-g10-currency-harvest-fund It is USD denominated, so stress test accordingly if you hold it. That’s just a starting point of course. A good way to do it is find a broker or holding company that allows you to inexpensively allocate exact amounts of foreign currency into your account and rebalance periodically. What is “stress test”? Here’s a good one. Take any currency in the portfolio and see how much of your equity is lost/gained in the event of a 50% haircut (aka shits the bed) over the weekend – Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine, [insert next one],…etc Also, don’t forget to see what happens if USD tanks 50% over a weekend. On the… Read more »
back to the future
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back to the future

Based on the trend for Vancouver Real Estate in 1979-1980 the average price in Vancouver is already about $5,000,000

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Personally, I think the Germans should leave the whole mess and go back to the Deutsche Mark.

ILoveCharts
Guest
ILoveCharts

Can anyone recommend a good ETF to give me some exposure to European equities? I’d like to take a ride on this stimulus.

HAM SANDWICH
Guest
HAM SANDWICH
23 – There are several. Most just popped up in the last few months First Asset has one RWE-TO – They have a hedged and a non-hedged version. I like the hedged as the C$ vs the EUR$ is impossible to predict. I also like it because it is screened for volatility so it will likely perform better in weak markets (but could give up some upside) BMO (ZEQ) and Ishares (XEH) each have one that can be bought hedged or unhedged. The BMO is similar to the First Asset (but not as good in my opinion) the Ishares has the lowest MER but is more representative of the overall market. Liquidity will be better than the other two but Europe is a big market and I don’t want to own it all that’s why I like the quant strategy… Read more »
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Ooh, I love extrapolating.

Let me try, I predict that based on the last 5 years that China’s current $23 TRILLION dollar debt bomb will be over $86 trillion in 2019 and still not pop.

Got copper?

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