Open Topic

FFFA! Let’s weekend!

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You made it to the end of another week and that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread.

Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–Poloz closed door speech breaks custom
–CMHC: on course for soft landing
–TD: housing starts unsustainable
–Statscan rushing to redo July jobs data
–Apartments vs inflation
–OECD better life index

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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ILoveCharts
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Can you imagine what would have happened if the CMHC had instead given loans to stable and growing Canadian businesses to allow them to expand and compete internationally?

The fact that they are even talking about “a landing” is an acknowledgement that they helped things to get too high.

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4 years 11 months ago
patriotz
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@1: “Can you imagine what would have happened if the CMHC had instead given loans to stable and growing Canadian businesses to allow them to expand and compete internationally?”

You would have gotten a bubble in businesses instead of RE. We had something like this in railways a century ago.

What we need is a government that supports the middle class instead of waging war on it, and that means no inflating housing costs, quality education and health care, and no bringing in slave labour from abroad.

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4 years 11 months ago
George
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From the Vancouver Sun: “My husband and I have sold our condo and we are trying to purchase a home, but it is quite expensive to do so in this area,” said Stewart, who is on the communications staff at BlueShore Financial. “So we talked it over and decided to enter into a tenancy-in-common situation with a couple of our good friends.” After researching the ins and outs of such an unusual arrangement and getting financial and legal advice, they decided to go ahead with their friends, Austyn Bartel and Neil MacKinnon. Under the contract, Kate and Glen will take the larger main floor of any house they buy together while Austyn and Neil will take the lower floor. The problem is that even with four people with full-time incomes, they have only been able to put in an offer… Read more »
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4 years 11 months ago
Son of Ponzi
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#3
Joe Mainlander.
What do you say?
4 locals with decent incomes can only afford 800k.

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4 years 11 months ago
George
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It is interesting to ponder the thought: What if government policies favoured some other asset class besides housing with low interest government-insuranced loans? There was indeed a railway boom in North America in the 19th century that was fed by government loans and grants. I don’t know enough about it to know for sure that it is correct to call it a railway “bubble”, but it probably was. At least that railway bubble had a lasting legacy: a rail networked that criss-crossed North America and led to industrial development of the continent. It left a lasting imprint on the development of North America. That infrastructure was in use for decades and although it would have had to be maintained and updated by now, many of the rail routes are still in operation a century later. What will be the lasting… Read more »
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4 years 11 months ago
Westside Realtor
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Anecdote: Selling clients are getting frustrated/angry with us now, indicating that all they hear are excuses/lower the price/cant find a buyer (at current sting price), so we are getting deeper into the emotional response we knew was coming. If we get a few dozen plane loads of HAM carrying suitcases of cash and who say “price is not an issue just buy buy buy” then the food times will roll But if not, then reality bites and we have to give it to them straight and hard if we want to move product. I am getting a clear impression (from colleague comments related to client discussions) that RE is not quite booming in China and that financial stresses are mounting. The same buyers who we could count on to buy a lux property here every year or two is now… Read more »
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4 years 11 months ago
Boombust
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#6

I guess “aversion” to any perceived losses is starting to kick in.

How many will de-list their homes in hope of getting their prices at a later date?

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4 years 11 months ago
Aggregator
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#6

Don't worry the 5yr bond yield is tanking and poised to make new record lows. We'll have 1.99% mortgages in the not to distant future and eventually 0.99%. That should get some more RE sales going.

Money is free for everyone! We'll all be richer then we think like Zimbabwean billionaires.

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4 years 11 months ago
Son of Ponzi
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After the job stats debacle, anyone here still blindly trusts govenrment reports, stats or surveys.

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4 years 11 months ago
Westside Realtor = Romeo Jordan
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Seriously, why does any reader here think that ‘westside realtor’ is a real realtor, and up vote him?

He, I mean Romeo Jordan, has yet to post one single piece of data after months of useless ‘commentary’ – not a daily sales stat, not one MLS listing from his ‘office’ showing a price decline, etc.

It is the same useless DAILY commentary about his ‘feelings,’ his ‘colleagues impressions,’ his ‘instincts’ – all of which is just utter garbage and noise.

I feel sorry for your employer Romeo- to deal with a clear clinical case such as yourself must be daunting.

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4 years 11 months ago
Westside Realtor
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Boom,

I suspect that many will delist/wait to “get their price”.

Might take an exogenous shock or higher rates (ever?…i don’t believe in never I believe in eventually /inevitable, but that said higher rates could be a long way off, who knows at this point?), so I don’t expect a listing surge until we see definitively lower prices and/or a shock to China economy/RE.

Right now prices are softening (and it is showing up in the data, if you mine it like I do), and if this feeds in itself then we could see lowere prices and lower seller expectations sooner than latelater which could feed on itself.

Time shall be the arbitrator.

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4 years 11 months ago
Westside Realtor
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Oracle, I am not posting under my real name. My name is not “Westside Realtor”.

You likely know this already as you reported me to the authorities as a suspect in your recent car vandalization.

I don’t post stats on activity in our office as I would catch shit for that.

When are you moving to the US again? I will miss you.

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4 years 11 months ago
cris
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http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/16/business/fears-of-renewed-instability-as-fed-ends-stimulus-program.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSum&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0 The Princeton economist Markus K. Brunnermeier, an expert on asset bubbles and crashes, has identified what he calls “synchronization risk,” a phenomenon in which investors ride a wave of price increases even if they realize the assets are overpriced. “It’s what economists call a lack of common knowledge,” he said. “We may all know an asset price is too high, but we don’t know that others know it, too. Timing is everything. The danger is if you move too early and the market doesn’t follow up. So everyone waits on the sidelines watching and listening,” as long as asset prices keep rising. The danger comes when they all try to get out at the same time. This seems especially true of many fund managers, who don’t want to underperform their rivals and obsessively follow one another’s moves. Professor Brunnermeier… Read more »
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4 years 11 months ago
cris
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Keep you cash dry. It will pay off one day. (It is getting hard for a family wanted to take some root down in a community.)

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4 years 11 months ago
space889
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@Westside Realtor – Or more like your mainland clients will simply fire your sorry ass and use someone who can actually sell the house.

Any idiot can sell a house by offering a low price. At that point, the house sell itself, no need to pay you 5% commission to do it.

The whole point of paying you commission is to get a sale quickly at higher price than owners can do it themselves via listing at a low price.

Geez….the amount of crap and $$ needed to sell a $10M house here pales in comparison to what sales ladies has to go through in China to sell a 10M RMB condo/TH/house (~ $1.6M CAD). You don’t even need to take the client out to dinner & karaoke/club, get totally drunk with a $5K bill at the end of it.

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4 years 11 months ago
Westside Realtor
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Space, I agree, there will be a lot of expired listings that get relisted with new agents. We will lose frustrated clients. We will get new clients who are frustrated with someone else. The industry has been overall too easy for a long time, I think we’ll be working a lot harder for smaller paychecks for a good long while. That is fair. I think we’ll see thousands of agents giving up their license. It is the same with every boom and bust cycle. Those with fortitude and staying power and hopefully some talent will come out of it leaner and will make up ground when the sun is back in full bloom. That does not frighten me too much, as I live well below my means and have been preparing for an inevitable slowdown. Selling houses – if it… Read more »
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4 years 11 months ago
Cherry Picker
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@#9 “After the job stats debacle, anyone here still blindly trusts govenrment reports, stats or surveys.”

I only trust anecdotes posted on blogs by a small sample of anonymous individuals.

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4 years 11 months ago
Oracle
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Patriots:

So what do we do as opposed to talking about it on a blog? We can start by ensuring the NDP/lib/green vote does not split in the coming election next year. Losers let it split and look what they get.

Aggregator:

Bang on. Rates will never go up. They are slowly bringing the average Canadian down while the rest of the world gains on us. Step One: see above.

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4 years 11 months ago
Son of Ponzi
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#17
I only trust anecdotes posted on blogs by a small sample of anonymous individuals.
——————-
Amen, brother, Amen.

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4 years 11 months ago
troubadour
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16,500 listings by next week. 17,000 by November. 18,000 by next spring ( or the spring after ) This market is done. Suck it, bulls.

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4 years 11 months ago
fitzrovia
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HAM sunk $7 M into two West van homes today. Oh…IMVHO..

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4 years 11 months ago
space889
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@Westside Realtor – I didn’t say selling house is easy. I said selling luxury house is easier here relative to selling in China.

You wouldn’t believe the amount of shit & crap you have to put up, go through, and take when trying to close a deal for say 10M RMB (~1.6M CAD) house in China, especially if you are a young woman just starting out.

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4 years 11 months ago
space889
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@troubadour – I don’t see that in Vancouver, Richmond, or Burnaby….frankly any SFH and duplex under $1M is still smoking hot. Even $1M to $1.5M SFH or duplex in good parts of Van, Richmond and Burnaby are sought after and bid.

My preferred area Marpole is pretty much dead as everyone is expecting developers to take them out at a hefty premium.

Even the condos in all those Marine Gate area developments aren’t panicking or being flipped at cost yet.

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4 years 11 months ago
paulb
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New Listings 133
Price Changes 82
Sold Listings 163
TI:16359

For weekly sales and/or listing updates on a specific neighbourhood/city email me and I will add you to my Friday list. http://www.paulboenisch.com

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4 years 11 months ago
Insanity
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@4 “What do you say? 4 locals with decent incomes can only afford 800k.”

Four locals who are in their 30s and have a lifetime savings of $10K each to come up with the 5% down for the crap hole house. They probably drained their RRSPs to come up with that $10K each which they will have to pay back or be taxed on. The fact these 4 get loaned $760K tells you everything about the bubble. 80% to 90% of the properties sold in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are sub 800K. This type of thing confirms it is loose lending to locals driving the bubble.

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4 years 11 months ago