FFFA! Bubble, Oil, Toil

You made it to the weekend!

And that means its time for another Friday Free-for-all! This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

End of the boom?
A look at bankruptcy and foreclosure
Alberta anxious over dropping oil
HAM or BCM?
Prices wont go up or fall

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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source website
Guest
source website

Wow, I presume I think it’s best to retain an attorney. My better half was considering declaring chapter 7 and unfortunately I assumed I would do some research. It is so frustraing. Thanks for the details offered on vancouvercondo.info. Pyrdum

West Coast Woman
Guest
West Coast Woman
Interesting article on page A32 in last Friday’s Courier (October 17, 2014) entitled “‘Buildable’ costs expose disconnect in condo market”: “The Vancouver highrise condo market is becoming increasingly disconnected from the local economy and from local buyers,” Schliewinsky said “In the past year, the new high-rise condo market has shifted so much away from its historical basis that it really can’t be considered as a ‘Vancouver’ housing market anymore. . . “Based in interviews with sales staff in theses projects, 60 per cent are targeting investors and 70 per cent are targeting “immigrant” buyers,’ Schliewinsky said. “Without Chinese buyers, there won’t be much local demand to support the Vancouver high-rise market. At the end of September, there were 5,600 unsold high-rise units in new projects and another 1,460 units still to be released in projects now marketing.” [Frank Schliewinsky, principal… Read more »
Slagathor
Guest
Slagathor

…..Someone should create a list of realtors whose very existence is totally irrelevant and whose basic function has been replaced by the internet years ago……

There isn’t a computer with enough storage to hold the list.

trackback

[…] Many Franks pointed out this article in the Globe and Mail and then pulled out a whole bunch of gems. […]

@177
Guest
@177

Someone should create a list of realtors whose very existence is totally irrelevant and whose basic function has been replaced by the internet years ago.

bobwestsiderealtor
Guest
bobwestsiderealtor

Someone should create a table of top callers, with their name’s and dates, since 2003. That would be informative.

...
Guest
...

PriceMart Foods, Richmond, BC.

http://i.imgur.com/cOc31jx.jpg

UBC in crisis mode
Guest
UBC in crisis mode

@174:

Yes, those are great maps!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

What happened to those cute little cartoon Bulls vs Bears battle maps?

Joe Mainlander
Guest
Joe Mainlander

@#172. 90% of Metro Van sales are for homes less than $1 million. Not too many folk buying those + $ 1mil homes.

Cheap money released into the housing market through BoC and CMHC policies have created this housing asset inflation, and young folk gaining access to more borrowed cash is a part of that. So, the headline is not surprising at all.

@171
Guest
@171

What was that from a novel or a collection of short stories or something? My aunt and cousin and step uncle twice removed knows someone whos friends cat was run over by a guy that bought a condo and guess what? he was under 30! That is amazing reporting and solid verifiable evidence that the housing boom has been fueled by people under 30. Who knew those 40-60K earning little work-a-bees could afford million dollar plus mortgages. Can you please go back to the magazine rack at the Java Stop and let us know what else you find? Amazing stuff!

bobwestsiderealtor
Guest
bobwestsiderealtor

RT @fabulavancouver: Who’s buying property in the Lower Mainland? Amazingly, people under 30:

http://www.francesbula.com/uncategorized/whos-buying-property-in-the-lower-mainland-amazingly-people-under-30

Softy
Guest
Softy

Now this is anecdotal of course, but you know how you can sometimes feel when a market is electrified/excited/hot…well, my observation in this case has lead me to conclude that this market is pudgy/soft and tired.

I am looking for a 10% drop over the next handful.of months and at least 30% off before we are done. The HAM phenomenon is clearly abating, and with it this bubble is gradually dwindling.

Your personal “feeling” does not even rise to the status of an anecdote. You are from the George W Bush school of analysis. And your conclusions are probably just as wrong.

Softy
Guest
Softy

“which puts into question the effectiveness of a new bylaw to regulate signage if many don’t follow existing rules.”

Well, that’s why we have this idea called enforcement.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
How it works: ” Why are condos still being built in Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver? There’s still money in condos—if you’re a developer”, Money Sense http://www.moneysense.ca/property/why-are-condos-still-being-built “A pre-sale is exactly as it sounds: it’s the sale of a condo unit before the building is constructed. For potential investors it means buying sight unseen from building plans and artist renditions. It can also mean significant savings with some real estate investors experiencing up to 25% price appreciation on the price they paid for a pre-built. As you can expect, developers offer this discounted pre-sale price to entice buyers to pre-purchase, thereby providing builders with cash-flow and equity, which is then used used to secure financing; in turn, this financing will pay for the construction of the building, which will lead to the sale of more units and, eventually, profit for the… Read more »
Softy
Guest
Softy

Did anyone see Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman on Charlie Rose last week? He says that the bond market is telling us that we will have a depressed world economy, with super low rates, for another five years.

You will be waiting that long for a crash because there will be no crash as long as rates are low.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Bank of Canada expected to remain cautious on interest rates”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bank-of-canada-continues-to-justify-its-caution-on-interest-rates/article21156966/

“The Bank of Canada is already seriously disinclined toward raising interest rates over the next year. Now it has all the reasons in the world not to.”

“Expect the bank to hold its policy rate steady at 1 per cent (an absolute slam dunk), and to lay out a whole new wave of risks justifying its low-rates-for-longer policy outlook.”

“Oil prices are in free fall. Europe teetering on the edge of recession and, worse still, deflation. Escalating ISIS tensions. Escalating Ebola fears. And perhaps most importantly, nauseating plunges in financial markets that, let’s face it, have left a battered public more open to a let’s-be-careful-here message.”

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#163
Richmond will be part of the ocean soon. So, ultimately, no loss.
————–
I guess, you can call it a wash.

vancouver is the soft underbelly
Guest
vancouver is the soft underbelly

China is staging a nationwide attack on iCloud and Microsoft accounts

http://www.theverge.com/2014/10/20/7013409/china-is-staging-a-nationwide-attack-on-icloud

i wonder if these attacks originate in richmond.

60m to go.
Guest
60m to go.

Richmond will be part of the ocean soon. So, ultimately, no loss.

http://www.gearthblog.com/images/images2006/sierraclubbc.jpg

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

richmond seceding from canada is already priced in.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#159
Richmond is not in Canada anymore.
Therefore Candian rules and laws do not apply.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“Moody’s warns on housing, but Canada retains top rating”, globe & Mail http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/moodys-warns-on-housing-consumer-debt-but-canada-retains-top-rating/article21162487/ “Canada remains at the top of the world’s credit-rating heap thanks to its fast-approaching balanced budget and a stable banking system, but the country’s high household debts and climbing house prices pose “a potential risk” to those strengths, Moody’s Investors Service said.” “The report said Canada’s housing market “appears to be particularly inflated, especially in the largest metropolitan areas.” It said that while a slowdown in home construction has already begun, a further downturn is possible, “leading us to conclude that Canada’s real estate market continues to pose downside risks to our [economic] growth forecast.”” “Mr. Hess argued that there are “no signs of a soft landing for the housing market in sight” – a view that is at odds with that of the Bank of Canada.”… Read more »
Mick murphy
Guest
Mick murphy

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2014/10/19/richmond-sign-debate-returns

Richmond sign debate returns

But perhaps more important is how “a significant number” of the No. 3 Road signs do not hold valid sign permits, according to a Richmond staff report — which puts into question the effectiveness of a new bylaw to regulate signage if many don’t follow existing rules.

CrashComing
Guest
CrashComing

Took an extended drive around east van yesterday.

Man, mist places look damp, dreary and depressed. The people too.

Bastion of million plus homes?…makes no logical sense other than mania, typical daftness chasing prices up on low rates, easy credit and peer pressure.

Now this is anecdotal of course, but you know how you can sometimes feel when a market is electrified/excited/hot…well, my observation in this case has lead me to conclude that this market is pudgy/soft and tired.

I am looking for a 10% drop over the next handful.of months and at least 30% off before we are done. The HAM phenomenon is clearly abating, and with it this bubble is gradually dwindling.

I welcome the carnage.