Moving up in Vancouver Real Estate? Not so much…

CIBC World Markets has released research that looks behind the average price moves in Canadian real estate. How are prices moving in Vancouver?

Astonishingly enough it looks like properties under the $1.1 million mark have moved less than a GIC in the last four years.  Here’s a graph from the original PDF:

Screen Shot 2014-10-15 at 2.50.16 PM

 

That boggles the mind. Even Toronto which has prices going up at the high end looks like its been a much better investment at the lower and middle end:

Screen Shot 2014-10-14 at 2.38.45 PM

 

So essentially that idea you have in your mind that Vancouver real estate has been a good investment over the last four years with prices just rising and rising? Not so much.

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

1.1 million isn’t high end. 1 million will get you something below average. 2+ million is high end.

crabman
Guest
crabman

This is more evidence that the market has been driven by the high end (aka HAM) the last few years.

http://vancouverpeak.com/showthread.php?tid=5253

patriotz
Member

What are those price ranges supposed to mean anyway? What the house sold for in 2014 or what it sold for in 2010? How are they calculating the price increase – are they including only those houses that sold in both years? If more houses than that, how do they know what the price increase is? Or does it mean something completely different?

No explanation in the text which makes the charts worthless IMHO.

patriotz
Member

@2:

Re comparing Victoria to Vancouver – all you need to explain Victoria’s stagnant prices is its population growth rate (% wise), which is among the lowest in Canada, down there with Sudbury and Windsor. It makes Vancouver, which currently has a historically quite low rate, look bursting at the seams. Low government pay raises likely play a role too.

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

Makes total sense to me.

This is a bifurcated market.

Now, the high end is showing stress, and I think this is the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Too bad for the camel….

Marco
Guest
Marco
Under 1.1 mil in Vancouver gets you a building lot with a “Vancouver special” house on it. You can find, in some suburbs of Vancouver decent houses under a mil for sure. Go to the British Properties and look at the 13mil dollar houses being bought by foreign investors. The prices in that high end area for instance have risen dramatically over the past ten years. The realtors in those areas I swear could ask for just about any price and get it. If money’s no option for these people then buying into so called “paradise” at a ludicrously high price is no problem. These prices have been manipulated to death by developers and realtors who know these people want to get their money out of their home country and breath some fresh air. Owners of older places up there… Read more »
Chinomia
Guest
Chinomia

Makes sense
That’s where HAM hunts
Have any doubts? Check out the west van rec centre

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

@#2 The link example uses Teranet as source. Teranet only tracks single family home sales. Single family home sales make up about 40%-50% of total sales. That leaves out more than half the sales in Vancouver, so data is far from complete.

William
Guest
William

Oracle is gone.

How utterly refreshing.

Thank you Oracle.

Sincerely,

Will

Loon
Guest
Loon

Yes, even in west van HAM hunts…for pop bottles.
My wife said an elderly asian man drives up our road picking the bottles out of the recycle bins early mornings on garbage day.

He must think we are all crazy for leaving money in the street.

paulb
Member
Trusted Member

New Listings 237
Price Changes 92
Sold Listings 186
TI:15497

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Roy
Guest
Roy

UBC students protest rent hikes
http://globalnews.ca/video/1614800/ubc-students-protest-rent-hikes

10-20% increase in housing rents
10% increase in tuition international students

Quote
1 year of undergrad studies with housing for those students is near $40,000

INSANE

wow...
Guest
wow...

I’m so fucking sick of seeing that turncoat partriotz’s posts. Hard to take anything he says seriously knowing he is a home owner.

I hope he bought at the top.

crikey
Guest
crikey

@#13, you’re not fooling anybody.
Patriotz’ posts are well thought out and generally insightful

wow...
Guest
wow...

@crikey

Talk is cheap. Look at where he put his money to know what he really thinks.

He’s just blowing smoke up all your asses cause being on this blog is a big ego boost for him.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Pats is now playing for the other team.
And you guy’s are still rooting for him.
Show some back bone, blog dogs.

Doug
Guest
Doug

@4 “all you need to explain Victoria’s stagnant prices is its population growth rate”

I think it was more to do with out-of-town buyers substituting for a cheaper US. However now, as US currency & prices have soared, I notice places like Victoria and Kelowna sales are once again heating up. The weaker loonie has also thawed industries like tourism.

Heard Herd selling
Guest
Heard Herd selling

The number of foreclosures in Supreme court is silly high, look up the daily court lists online and it’s all banks vs mortgageholders

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

“all you need to explain Victoria’s stagnant prices is its population growth rate”

What happened to the stories of tapped-out locals or downsizing boomers?

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

I thought homes across Canada were overpriced due to government policy and HAM in van was a myth.

I guess patizits street is the exception. He must have bought in a CMHC free zone.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“No matter what statistics show, Canada’s housing boom is about to end, experts say”

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/15/no-matter-what-statistics-show-canadas-housing-boom-is-about-to-end-experts-say/

“It might be hard to convince some Canadians the end of the housing boom is near based on new statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association which show prices still rising.”

“But the growing consensus, even in the face of record valuations for homes in Canada’s three most expensive cities, is that prices will flatten out — a thesis even supported by one of Canada’s largest real estate companies”

“But David Madani, an economist with Canada Economics who has called for a major correction, wonders whether some consumers are even prepared for a flat market let alone one that is falling.”

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Wasn’t it Dave who called for a flat market?

Bailing in BC
Member

Heard Herd selling #18

I just looked the new case report for foreclosures and bankruptcy’s and compared them to data I collected from last year.

https://eservice.ag.gov.bc.ca/cso/newCaseReport.do

Foreclosures 23 Bankruptcy’s 21

Same period last year Foreclosures 29 Bankruptcy’s 4

The average from the data I collected (most of the year) was Foreclosure 28.6
Bankruptcy 18

patriotz
Member

@17: “However now, as US currency & prices have soared, I notice places like Victoria and Kelowna sales are once again heating up. ”

I think it has a lot more to do with rising prices in Alberta, particularly with respect to Kelowna. The Okanagan and BC recreational property bust followed very quickly on the heels of the Alberta RE bust of 2007.

Also Teranet says Victoria is still below its peak in 2010 and about the same as late 2007, and is negative YOY. Not what I would call a boom.

patriotz
Member
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