Oct 2014 Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index at 54%

RFM has updated the Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index which currently stands at 54%.

That takes it almost squarely into the middle of historical data:

The VANCOUVER REALTOR HUNGER INDEX for October 2014 was 54%. How does this compare? The 17-year average for October is 50%. At 54%, the 2014 October VRHI was higher than 8 years and lower than 8 years since 1998.

Details and comparison data for 17 years at: http://vancouverpeak.com/showthread.php?tid=64

Here’s how that number is calculated:

I start with the total reported sales from the REBGV. I assume 5% of those sales were ‘double ended’ (one realtor kept the entire commission by ‘representing’ both buyer and seller) and add to the number of ‘double ended’ commissions the number of split commissions (which I reduce by an assumed 15% ‘earned’ by realtors who handled multiple sales). I divide the resulting number of commissions by the total number of realtors and subtract that fraction from 1 to yield the percent of realtors not earning commissions and therefore going hungry. In symbols: (((sales x .05) + (sales x 1.615))/(# realtors)) – 1 = VRHI; (1.615 = .95 x 2 x .85). The REBGV website reveals neither the exact number of realtors at any particular time nor the percent actively engaged in selling residential property. I used 11,000 for 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011; 10,000 for 2010, 9,400 for 2009, 9,500 for 2008, 9,000 for 2007, 8,200 for 2006, 7,800 for 2005, 7,100 for 2004, 6,700 for 2003, 6,500 for 2002, 6,700 for 2001, 7,200 for 2000, 7,800 for 1999 and 8,500 for 1998.

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UBC in crisis mode
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UBC in crisis mode

Thanks to RFM for the wonderful work.

franko
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Active Member
franko

It must be tough for Stephen Poloz to stay busy enough to keep from getting bored and not feel guilty about being paid more than twice as much as Janet Yellen. How else can one explain his comment that unemployed young people should work for free to gain experience.
What it could possibly have to do with totally benign mandated job description, I have no idea.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Westside Realtor Says:
November 5th, 2014 at 9:19 am 82
All of the “OOMPH” in the upper end of the SFH market is……………….G-O-N-E….oh where, oh where have my good HAM gone?:-)
——————-
Sag mir who die Schinken sind,
Wo sind sie geblieben?

crabman
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crabman

According to this year’s Canada Mortgage and Housing Outlook Conference:

“Metro Vancouver housing is affordable. The market is stable. There is no glut of new condominiums looming. And foreign investors are not driving sales and prices higher.”

http://www.biv.com/article/2014/11/conference-torpedoes-vancouver-housing-myths/

I guess that settles it!

The article also features more of the laughable “Rennie math”.

“Rennie said media and pundits concentrate on the average price of single-family detached houses in the City of Vancouver, which consistently average in the million-dollar range, with condominiums north of $440,000. But, he said, such higher-end sales represent only 20% of the overall market.

For the remaining 80% of buyers, the average detached house is around $670,000 and the average condominium is $316,000, Rennie said.”

Of course, once you also exclude the top 20% of incomes, $670,000 is anything but affordable.

Son of Ponzi
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Son of Ponzi

#4
Rennie should be sued for MISREPRESENTATION .
Check Realtylink for East Vancouver:
There’s only two (2) SFHs under 670k.

Touchdown
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Touchdown

I come in here and I see all the negativity. Is this a site where people vent their displeasure. There is a shortage of homes as far as I’m concerned. Whatever Rennie said was a bit of an understatement. We need more highrises quickly if there’s 39,000 immigrants per year. From what I see, there’s a shortage of supply and I can see condo prices ballooning another 10-25% in the next 2 years. And I’m being conservative. Just look at Asia and you’ll see what I mean. Prices skyrocketing 30-50% a year.

crabman
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crabman

@SoP,

Great point!

There are also 383 houses listed over $670k in East Van. When I removed the most expensive 20% of listings, the median price of the bottom 80% was $1,088,000.

And on the west side, the median price for the “cheaper” 80% of listings was $2,888,888.

Son of Ponzi
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Son of Ponzi

#7
$1,088,000 and $2,888,888.
Coincidence?

Slagathor
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Slagathor

….And I’m being conservative. Just look at Asia and you’ll see what I mean. Prices skyrocketing 30-50% a year…..

I think I just heard the bell ring; you better get back to class! Kid’s aren’t allowed in the playground after the first bell rings.

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley

Anyone have stats handy for other parts of province? I.e. MOI and average price for interior, Kootenay, island etc etc? Just curious….

Son of Ponzi
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Son of Ponzi

Brodie in trouble in Richmond?
Just received a large pamphlet in the mail supporting his campaign.
Used to be a cake walk for him.

Oh Grow Op!
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Oh Grow Op!

@touchdown: Build Baby Build!

space889
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space889
@Patriotz – If you are accusing of others with reading comprehension problems then I have to point out your. I was comparing poor immigrants working in low paying jobs with little chance of advancement and hence very little overall taxes vs wealth ones who pays lots of sales and property tax and little income tax. Your use of a local billionaire to argue this tax issue is a total straw man argument. Secondly, in BC you can easily make $80K in dividend income and still not pay any taxes thanks to dividend tax credits. That is a very very huge gift to the rich since its mostly the rich that have lots of dividend income. At an average of ~3% dividend rate in a diversified portfolio (note DIVERSIFIED portfolio, not one that only holds 6 banks and 6 other utilities/REITs),… Read more »
space889
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space889

This stupid index is beyond useless…..

Seriously….just because there are a lot of realtors not bagging a sale doesn’t mean price is going to go down. That’s up to how desperate the seller wants to sell or the buyer want to buy. The seller/buyer isn’t going to give a shit about whether the realtor is making $$ or not, unless they are the type that bends easy to pressure or advances.

Sales is a 80/20 rule. The market can be totally hot and you can have high hunger index if the top 20% is bagging most of those sales.

An analogy, there are huge number of starving actors just scrapping by waiting tables in LA or Van but that doesn’t mean the film/TV industry is struggling. There is no correlation or causation.

patriotz
Member

@13: “Last, if you don’t earn income in Canada you don’t pay income tax.”

Canadian residents, either physical or deemed, are taxable on worldwide income. A Canadian resident who doesn’t report offshore income is engaging in tax evasion.

THAT is the issue – all the other items you (or I) touched on are peripheral to this.

Slagathor
Guest
Slagathor

….Last, if you don’t earn income in Canada you don’t pay income tax….

This is, of course, nonsense, which even a cursory review of Canadian tax laws would reveal.

Oh Grow Op!
Guest
Oh Grow Op!

At space889: “just because there are a lot of realtors not bagging a sale doesn’t mean price is going to go down.”

Who said that was the case? You seem to think that the only reason to keep any index is to track prices, but some of us find hungry realtors interesting. Why so angry about data? I for one appreciate the work RFM puts into this and find it an interesting datapoint to compare with anecdotes from friends who are realtors.

Go ahead and make the index for the data that interests you and share it with us, but don’t piss all over the work of others please.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“Before you sound the debt alarm, know how much you have” National Post (Oct 11, a little dated). http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/11/before-you-sound-the-debt-alarm-know-how-much-is-too-much/ ““A lot of people forget that as recently as the summer of 2008, the prime rate was 6.25%,” Mr. Heath says. “People need to envision: Here’s what will happen if my mortgage is at 5%.” Moody’s Analytics predicted this week that interest rates will remain the same until the end of this year and rise next year. The Bank of Canada’s overnight interest rate is forecast to rise to 1.5% by the end of next year from 1% now, where it has stood for four years, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Even a 2% increase in interest rates would spell disaster for many Canadians. A BMO survey released in March reported that, 20% of respondents felt a 2% increase… Read more »
Son of Ponzi
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Son of Ponzi

#15,16
Still believe that Schinken is playing by the rules?
And China Revenue Agency (CRA) is way too understaffed.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“Do We Need To Take The Wind Out Of The Housing Market’s Sails Again?”, Business in Canada https://businessincanada.com/2014/10/28/canada-housing-bubble-home-prices-macroprudential-measures-cmhc-bank-of-canada-joe-oliver/ “The growth in home prices has been fuelled in no small part by a prolonged period of low interest rates. When money’s cheap it’s easier to service your debts, which enables households to take out larger mortgages relative to their income than the historical norm without getting crushed by monthly payments. In that sense, it’s not altogether unsurprising that the ratio of household debt to income exceeds 160 percent.” “If nothing else, what we should take away from the central bank of Sweden’s move to lower its policy rate to zero despite worries about an overheated housing sector is that monetary policymakers aren’t as willing to raise rates due to financial stability concerns as some believe. That’s especially true for the Bank… Read more »
UBC in crisis mode
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UBC in crisis mode
paulb
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Trusted Member

New Listings 211
Price Changes 70
Sold Listings 125
TI:14457

http://www.paulboenisch.com

history
Guest
history

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/price+plummet+sets+alarm+bells/10353918/story.html

Throw out aspertions to stability. A Glut of oil is causing prices to plummet.

Westside Realtard is Romeo Jordan
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Westside Realtard is Romeo Jordan

I would love to see this index if we threw out the top 1% of Realtors who probably account for 10% or more of the sales.

Thanks for taking the time to post it.

Ford Prefect
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Ford Prefect
#23: “A Glut of oil is causing prices to plummet.” This is a complex topic but it does have a direct connection to Canadian housing because a drop off in oil revenue leading to job and income losses, particularly in Canada, could be the trigger to cause a real estate collapse. Basically the global oil supply is made up of two components, conventional crude = cheap and unconventional crude = expensive. Unconventional consists of oil sands, very deep offshore wells and oil shale fracking. Unconventional costs of production are in the $80+/barrel range. Conventional oil at least until recently was still being produced at around $5/barrel in many cases. Now with the Saudis, a conventional producer, offering oil at $77/barrel they have made an astute move. They will sell out and all unconventional producers will be operating at a loss.… Read more »
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