Oct 2014 Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index at 54%

RFM has updated the Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index which currently stands at 54%.

That takes it almost squarely into the middle of historical data:

The VANCOUVER REALTOR HUNGER INDEX for October 2014 was 54%. How does this compare? The 17-year average for October is 50%. At 54%, the 2014 October VRHI was higher than 8 years and lower than 8 years since 1998.

Details and comparison data for 17 years at: http://vancouverpeak.com/showthread.php?tid=64

Here’s how that number is calculated:

I start with the total reported sales from the REBGV. I assume 5% of those sales were ‘double ended’ (one realtor kept the entire commission by ‘representing’ both buyer and seller) and add to the number of ‘double ended’ commissions the number of split commissions (which I reduce by an assumed 15% ‘earned’ by realtors who handled multiple sales). I divide the resulting number of commissions by the total number of realtors and subtract that fraction from 1 to yield the percent of realtors not earning commissions and therefore going hungry. In symbols: (((sales x .05) + (sales x 1.615))/(# realtors)) – 1 = VRHI; (1.615 = .95 x 2 x .85). The REBGV website reveals neither the exact number of realtors at any particular time nor the percent actively engaged in selling residential property. I used 11,000 for 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011; 10,000 for 2010, 9,400 for 2009, 9,500 for 2008, 9,000 for 2007, 8,200 for 2006, 7,800 for 2005, 7,100 for 2004, 6,700 for 2003, 6,500 for 2002, 6,700 for 2001, 7,200 for 2000, 7,800 for 1999 and 8,500 for 1998.

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tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

@31 but in Los Angeles you cant ski and snowshoe in the same day
and you cant work at global corporations like Megabite Pizza and lululemon

and you cant cruise world famous 49th avenue to play badminton at Sunset Community center

all you can do in La is drive Sunset Boulevard to Hollywood or Dodger Stadium

Dumb Money
Guest
Dumb Money

Gotta buy before the smart money prices us out. What was that name of that mortgage broker woman?

Smart Money
Guest
Smart Money

Oh yeah…. I’m leaving puttin’ money in a red hot bubble.

World Class
Guest
World Class

And Smart Money knows that the BoC will not raise rates for at least a decade.

That’s why our loonie is suffering and our bonds are booming.

But the government ‘talks’ and the sheep listen. Lol

World Class
Guest
World Class

Wow. Vancouver more expensive than Rome.

Understandable though.

If by estimates there are 500,000 families in the world each with $100 Million plus in investable assets, then they will surely buy a property in Vancouver, one in San Francisco, one in London…

Get the picture?

The world is awash in money!

space889
Guest
space889
Fine, let me replace with “if you don’t make any world wide income then you wouldn’t pay tax”. Way to focus on the minutia and miss the big picture. The wives and mistresses who are busy shopping, partying, eating, or just bored when not chauffering their spoiled kids around isn’t going to be making much world wide income. I doubt their spoiled kids would make much world wide income either. As for dad, unless you have evidence that he applied for immigration, you don’t know whether they are dodging taxes or not. Or they could do what rich people here do, only take dividends but not regular wage, and basically avoid all taxes. All this income tax dodging is just guess work. What is known for sure though is that some English speaking immigrant group have sponsoring retired parents/grandparents here… Read more »
chinoria
Guest
chinoria
Yunak
Guest
Yunak
Boombust
Guest
Boombust

LA is an armpit.

Girlbear
Guest
Girlbear

For $2.5mill in LA…oh…and the owner makes a decent living 🙂

http://www.housebeautiful.com/photos/jason-bateman-hollywood-hills-home-for-sale?src=soc_fcbks

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

#28, whatever happened to the poster who went by the handle “Why Buy When You Can Rent Till 2011” who frequented Chipman’s blog?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Hunger index? I’m pretty sure that if I was making 3% on $1,000,000 transactions that I could afford to skip sales for a month or six a year without much hardship.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@UBC in crisis mode

for how many years has UBC been in crisis mode? a house there must cost $50k by now.

RFM
Guest
RFM
Comment 24 & 26: As explained in the methodology of calculating the VRHI, I assumed 5% of monthly sales were ‘double ended’ (one realtor kept the entire commission by ‘representing’ both buyer and seller) plus, I reduced the remaining 95% of sales by 15% to account for realtors who handled multiple sales. I make no pretense of the VRHI being rigorously peer-reviewed academic pablum; it’s just an interesting way to look at monthly sales. I use the most accurate information I can find, but, as explained in the methodology, the REBGV doesn’t report how many realtors there are at any particular time, let alone how many are actively engaged in selling residential property. Their website simply says that it is a member-based association of more than 11,000 realtors. As another contributor suggested, anyone is welcome to use whatever information is… Read more »
Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#24
agree.
Another application of the Pareto Principle.
20% of the realtors making 80% of the sales.
Sean Lawson is the top realtor in Steveston.
He’s pretty much has the market cornered.

Ford Prefect
Guest
Ford Prefect
#23: “A Glut of oil is causing prices to plummet.” This is a complex topic but it does have a direct connection to Canadian housing because a drop off in oil revenue leading to job and income losses, particularly in Canada, could be the trigger to cause a real estate collapse. Basically the global oil supply is made up of two components, conventional crude = cheap and unconventional crude = expensive. Unconventional consists of oil sands, very deep offshore wells and oil shale fracking. Unconventional costs of production are in the $80+/barrel range. Conventional oil at least until recently was still being produced at around $5/barrel in many cases. Now with the Saudis, a conventional producer, offering oil at $77/barrel they have made an astute move. They will sell out and all unconventional producers will be operating at a loss.… Read more »
Westside Realtard is Romeo Jordan
Guest
Westside Realtard is Romeo Jordan

I would love to see this index if we threw out the top 1% of Realtors who probably account for 10% or more of the sales.

Thanks for taking the time to post it.

history
Guest
history

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/price+plummet+sets+alarm+bells/10353918/story.html

Throw out aspertions to stability. A Glut of oil is causing prices to plummet.

paulb
Member

New Listings 211
Price Changes 70
Sold Listings 125
TI:14457

http://www.paulboenisch.com

UBC in crisis mode
Guest
UBC in crisis mode
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“Do We Need To Take The Wind Out Of The Housing Market’s Sails Again?”, Business in Canada https://businessincanada.com/2014/10/28/canada-housing-bubble-home-prices-macroprudential-measures-cmhc-bank-of-canada-joe-oliver/ “The growth in home prices has been fuelled in no small part by a prolonged period of low interest rates. When money’s cheap it’s easier to service your debts, which enables households to take out larger mortgages relative to their income than the historical norm without getting crushed by monthly payments. In that sense, it’s not altogether unsurprising that the ratio of household debt to income exceeds 160 percent.” “If nothing else, what we should take away from the central bank of Sweden’s move to lower its policy rate to zero despite worries about an overheated housing sector is that monetary policymakers aren’t as willing to raise rates due to financial stability concerns as some believe. That’s especially true for the Bank… Read more »
Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#15,16
Still believe that Schinken is playing by the rules?
And China Revenue Agency (CRA) is way too understaffed.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
“Before you sound the debt alarm, know how much you have” National Post (Oct 11, a little dated). http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/11/before-you-sound-the-debt-alarm-know-how-much-is-too-much/ ““A lot of people forget that as recently as the summer of 2008, the prime rate was 6.25%,” Mr. Heath says. “People need to envision: Here’s what will happen if my mortgage is at 5%.” Moody’s Analytics predicted this week that interest rates will remain the same until the end of this year and rise next year. The Bank of Canada’s overnight interest rate is forecast to rise to 1.5% by the end of next year from 1% now, where it has stood for four years, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Even a 2% increase in interest rates would spell disaster for many Canadians. A BMO survey released in March reported that, 20% of respondents felt a 2% increase… Read more »