Vancouver Housing Myths

Crabman pointed out this article in BIV: Conference torpedoes Vancouver housing myths

Metro Vancouver housing is affordable. The market is stable. There is no glut of new condominiums looming. And foreign investors are not driving sales and prices higher.

I believe those are not the myths being exploded, but meant to be statements of fact at the beginning of the article. As for the ‘affordability’ issue, the cities top condo salesman says simply omit SFH and disregard the top 20% of the market and things don’t look so bad.

Rennie said media and pundits concentrate on the average price of single-family detached houses in the City of Vancouver, which consistently average in the million- dollar range, with condominiums north of $440,000. But, he said, such higher-end sales represent only 20% of the overall market.

For the remaining 80% of buyers, the average detached house is around $670,000 and the average condominium is $316,000, Rennie said.

But there seems to be some question about how that math works out. Crabman claims to have done the math and come up with a different result:

There are also 383 houses listed over $670k in East Van. When I removed the most expensive 20% of listings, the median price of the bottom 80% was $1,088,000.

And on the west side, the median price for the “cheaper” 80% of listings was $2,888,888.

But even if Crabman is mistaken and Rennie has the math correct, there’s this:

Of course, once you also exclude the top 20% of incomes, $670,000 is anything but affordable.

 

 

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Pizzarella
Guest
Pizzarella

When I look at my investment statements I like to omit the bottom 80% and focus on the top 20% of returns, I find this to have a much more pleasing effect.

patriotz
Member

“..but meant to be statements of fact at the beginning of the article”

The facts are the numbers, i.e. prices, sales volume, rents, incomes.

“Metro Vancouver housing is affordable. The market is stable. There is no glut of new condominiums looming. And foreign investors are not driving sales and prices higher.”

These are subjective conclusions.

NOM NOM NOM
Guest
NOM NOM NOM

Came across this article on ths SCMP website this morning. Topic discusses how the relationship between MAinland culture and Canadian governement ineptitude combines for a lopsided match made in hell.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1614592/canadas-misguided-pitch-rich-chinese-immigrants

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

Why do we keep quoting Rennie?
It’s like quoting the President of the Flat Earth Society.
Delusional.
Everyone uses statistics to suit their own purposes.
The truth is out there, but you gotta find it yourself.

RFM
Guest
RFM
I think of Bob Rennie and others of his ilk as living in a ‘created reality.’ This means that they see the world through optically skewed glasses, are surrounded by people who see the world similarly and are isolated from the wage-earning mortgage-paying family-supporting middle and lower class folks. Hence, the world is a rosy place! On point, this recent article at Aljazeera, highlights that the elites at the World Economic Forum list their top ‘concern’ as income inequality! http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/11/11/global-inequalityisarisingconcernforelites.html The article says they will watch this ‘problem’ about which they are most concerned! I predict that they and Bob will: 1 watch from a private box seat 2 located in the gated and guarded upper tier 3 having arrived by armored limousine 4 while eating truffle coated Chilean sea bass filets 5 and drinking Dom Perignon ’56 6 with… Read more »
VanRant
Member
VanRant

“Bankers and analysts said the definition of a bubble in prices requires three conditions:
high credit growth, reductions in lending standards and expectations of continuing property price rises.”

The answer to all 3’s are yes in Vancouver

patriotz
Member

@5: “I think of Bob Rennie and others of his ilk as living in a ‘created reality.’”

Nope. The propagandist is quite aware of what’s really going on. In the USSR, the only objective publications were the internal ones produced by the KGB for the Party, who had to know what was really going on in order to fool the public.

It’s the public who live in a “created reality”.

patriotz
Member

@6: ““Bankers and analysts said the definition of a bubble in prices requires three conditions:
high credit growth, reductions in lending standards and expectations of continuing property price rises.””

They are conflating part of the definition of a bubble (the 3rd condition) with factors that usually enable one (the first two).

You can have a bubble in a small market (RE or otherwise) even if every buyer is paying cash.

WTF!
Guest
WTF!

Why is Vancouver teranet leading the country higher again!!???

http://www.biv.com/article/2014/11/vancouver-home-prices-see-highest-growth-canada-oc/

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

@#9
Remember, Teranet only tracks resales of detached units, not multifamily.
Usually, around one-half of yearly sales in Metro Vancouver are for attached/apartment units.

George
Guest
George

Gregor Robertson was on CBC news apologizing for his dismal performance as mayor. His fear of losing the election is palpable. I just love to watch him squirm right now. I would love it even more if I get to see him lose the election.

paulb
Member

New Listings 215
Price Changes 89
Sold Listings 154
TI:14285

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Whistler or bust?
Guest
Whistler or bust?

@11 – My wife and I voted NPA and I have several friends who would not otherwise vote but are going out to vote against Moonbeam. This is going to be very interesting!

People are sick of his bullying and pet projects. Buh bye Moonbeam after you get booted maybe you can run for the NDP so I can vote against you again!

patriotz
Member

@13: “People are sick of his bullying and pet projects.”

As if his predecessor didn’t engage in either – even the NPA finally got enough of him and dumped him.

Anyway the provincial government will continue to make the big decisions as it always has.

rocknrolla
Member
rocknrolla

Markets are markets. You can’t just remove the top X% and bottom X% of something so that it fits your mandate and viewpoint.

I’d like to get rid of a few idiots and nerds when i throw a party to make it better and cooler when we all reflect on Facebook the next day, but i can’t.

Location, location, location
Price, price, price

but i do like that last comment about excluding the top 20% of income to make the comment more balanced

@George
Guest
@George

“Gregor Robertson was on CBC news apologizing for his dismal performance as mayor. His fear of losing the election is palpable. I just love to watch him squirm right now. I would love it even more if I get to see him lose the election.”

The most corrupt mayor in Vancouver’s history. I agree scum bag needs to go. If he was truly sorry he would resign immediately.

http://blogs.theprovince.com/2014/10/20/kirk-lapointe-vision-vancouvers-cash-for-jobs-deal-with-city-union-is-corrupt/

@patriditz
Guest
@patriditz

“Anyway the provincial government will continue to make the big decisions as it always has.”

Great point Patriditz! Lets not even bother voting at the civic level then. The City council and Mayor just are not making enough big decisions. Who cares about things like development, policing, having all the roads converted to bike lanes, union corruption, etc. Lets just overlook the poor track record of Gregor and Vision and not vote at all!

Who's On First?
Guest
Who's On First?

Isn’t Gregor really Penny Ballem’s lap dog? Doesn’t she really run the place? All reports go through her now, and won’t be passed on to Council without her approval/edits. Isn’t that why a lot of City staff have bailed?

http://www.straight.com/blogra/city-manager-penny-ballem-offers-spotlight-mayor-gregor-robertson-change

Who's On First?
Guest
Who's On First?

Fallen soldiers at Vancouver City Hall remembered for their efforts
http://archive.citycaucus.com/2010/03/fallen-soldiers-at-vancouver-city-hall-remembered-for-their-efforts

Two senior planners resign from the City of Vancouver: Analysis and questions
http://cityhallwatch.wordpress.com/2014/04/30/senior-planners-resign/

Two (or three?) more senior staff gone in Vancouver
http://www.francesbula.com/uncategorized/two-or-three-more-senior-staff-gone-in-vancouver/

Who's On First?
Guest
Who's On First?
Who's On First?
Guest
Who's On First?

Two senior planners resign from the City of Vancouver: Analysis and questions
http://cityhallwatch.wordpress.com/2014/04/30/senior-planners-resign/

@Who's On First
Guest
@Who's On First

“Two senior planners resign from the City of Vancouver”

All the good city planners have been fired or resigned. Gregor is in the developers pockets and does as they say when they say. If city planners disagree with what the developers want then they are told to change the plan, resign or be fired. More planners have resigned or been fired under Vision in the past 6 years than the previous 40 years combined. Only yes men need apply.

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

Bidding pressure for upper end sfh market on westside is sheet.

It’s going from tepid to WORSE.

Interesting….

CrashComing
Guest
CrashComing

Dog, no doubt.

Signs of the slowdown are everywhere and evident.

Who's On First?
Guest
Who's On First?

@#22 Yep.Telus Garden wants to hang a building over public street property, blocking sun and views. No prob.

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