Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again…

Friday free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Sceptical of CMHC data?
Langley Condos at 2006 prices
Canadas random success story
A bubble in renters?
Market peak
Oil prices on housing a ‘wild card’

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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CV
Guest
CV

As most of us know all too well every great party ends with an equally great hangover. Once this debt-fueled spending party that Canadian households, Governments (all levels) and businesses have been on for the last several decades finally ends the resulting hangover is going to be a doozy.

At the end of September, 2014 the total household, Government (all levels) and business debt in Canada (bottom line of the data table – total debt outstanding) was $5.67 trillion. In the first 9 months of this year the total debt outstanding in Canada increased by $162 billion. In 2013 it increased by $287 billion. In 2012 it increased by $272 billion.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780122

To put these numbers into perspective in 2014 the Federal Government is expecting to spend $250.2 billion on program expenses (Table 4.2.4 in the following link).

http://www.budget.gc.ca/2014/docs/plan/ch4-2-eng.html

valleyrenter
Member
valleyrenter

Ugh, already hearing conservative attack ads against the libs on radio. Couldn’t this have waited till the new year? Seems this type of political posturing this early is going to make the road to the election long and tiresome.

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

Based on feedback in the office we are forecasting a healthy surge in listings in January as HAM sets up to hit the bid, price expectations are lowered, everyone knows we will be selling for less next year than this one.

These are the days of our lives.

WSR

Monkey Allan
Guest
Monkey Allan

WSR, I think you meant to put “in the office” in air quotes. Whoops.

As the world turns.

MA

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“House shopping in Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver? They’re desperation cities”, Globe & Mail.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/if-buying-a-house-is-a-financial-stretch-keep-saving/article22130503/

“What more could go wrong if you’re struggling to save enough money to buy a first home? Here’s something: You buy and then have to deal with a shock to the economy. Something like a plunge in oil prices that undermines growth and hurts the job market, for example.”

CBC
Guest
CBC

Hey wsr
GVA listings down 14% from this time last year, must be all the HAM rushing to sell. Notice how I used a statistically number rather than my “feeling”, “intuition”, or general sentiment of my “colleagues” around “the office”

CBC

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

CBC,

According to Paul B’s numbers, Vancouver inventory is the lowest it’s been since 2009. WSR is a clueless troll.

JMHO

SC

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

@valleyrenter: negative advertising has two effects. It fires up a party’s base by pushing its buttons. And it fosters fatigue and cynicism about politics in general in everyone else, decreasing the likelihood that they will vote (and if that doesn’t work, you can create a program to criminally misdirect voters to other polling stations, hanging it on a scapegoat when you get busted). I support Australia-style compulsory voting because it undermines at least part of this deeply cynical strategy.

But back to real estate/debt time bombs: @CV, those numbers are pretty staggering. I wonder, has anyone done a per capita analysis comparing Canada to other nations?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
RE FP article: CMHC finally releases foreign ownership data on housing… “To comprise its data, CMHC asked property managers to provide information on the total number of condo apartment units owned by people whose permanent residence is outside of Canada” -as long as the cash keeps rolling in, prop mgrs will keep their heads buried in the sand. disclosure of the truth (assuming such info can be accurately determined) would open up so many cans of worms “I don’t think the number is accurate and there is no way you can get a true reading on [foreign ownership] unless you mandate everyone to come out and disclose what they own,” -lol, the banks can’t even get the full story in most cases. no way the RE industry would be forced to adhere to such draconian guidelines “…in many cases you… Read more »
valleyrenter
Member
valleyrenter

@ Royce McCutcheon: Those sneaky bastards, lol.

Son of Ponzi
Guest
Son of Ponzi

#6,7
When quoting “statistics”, be beware that a large portion of listings are stored in the Dark Pools, not unlike the ones used by the banks to obfuscate the real stock market.
Sometimes, what you see is not what you get.

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Guest
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patriotz
Member

@5: ““What more could go wrong if you’re struggling to save enough money to buy a first home?”

How about buying at the top in Calgary and then having to sell because you’ve lost your job?

Ya think?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“15 per cent house price drop possible, RBC chief says” Toronto Star.

http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/12/19/15_per_cent_house_price_drop_possible_rbc_chief_says.html

“Canadian housing prices could fall as much as 15 per cent should interest rates climb, which would be “healthy” for the country’s economy, Royal Bank of Canada Chief Executive Officer David McKay said.”

““I do not believe it will end badly,” McKay said. “A slowing market is absolutely a healthy thing right now, so we’re not concerned.””

CBC
Guest
CBC

This forum is hilarious. Anything posted remotely bullish will get voted down with great impunity but an obvious fake realtor spouting on about HAM evaporating because his crystal ball told him so gets a thumbs up. I think the market is stupid too, but believing made up rhetoric doesn’t get you what you want

Marco
Guest
Marco

@7 StupidityCheck

November to February are the slow months in Real estate land. Wait till the Spring when for sale signs pop up like tulips (Dutch tulips)

Cheers.

CBC
Guest
CBC

@marco
yes inventory and sales always trends down before the spring rush, but the significance is that inventory levels in december are down relative to the last 4 decembers be it manipulated or not by the rebgv

@CBC
Guest
@CBC

*GASP*

are you suggesting that the comments on this site have a bearish bias????

CBC
Guest
CBC

well in that case i may as well go back to turner’s blog for my daily dose of bear bias

space889
Guest
space889

@bullwhip29 – The ownership data are all in the land registry kept by various local/provincial government. Correlated that with whatever Fed government agency that keeps track of SIN number and citizenship status and you got all the info you ever need.

As far as I know, if you plan on owning a place, you name goes on the land registry and title deeds. That is all government and public information.

If you are foreigner, your name still goes on the title deeds, not your lawyers or property managers, unless you want them to own it instead.

space889
Guest
space889

@Royce McCutcheon – Repeat a lie long and often enough, people believe it is the truth. That’s why the PC party runs the attack ads continuously. It worked wonderfully for them the last few elections against various opposition leaders. It’s likely to work again in the next election.

Canada and BC are going downhill fast and there is no reversing course cuz people with good intention don’t get elected and the average electorate are just mind-numbingly dumb, lazy, and short-sighted.

Slagathor
Guest
Slagathor

……““I do not believe it will end badly,” …..

….Said the spider to the fly.

Marco
Guest
Marco

#14

From the Star article:

“A rise in interest rates and a ‘healthy’ fall in prices could save debt-strapped Canadians, bank CEO says.”

Huh?

@CBC
Guest
@CBC

no one’s stopping u.

@ @CBC
Guest
@ @CBC

You’re hilarious
Must have lots of time in your moms basement to come up with those witty zingers u goof

wpDiscuz