Skook has updated the massive Sunshine Coast Land Sales thread over at VancouverPeak– this thread shows historical and 2014 data.
Just a short ferry ride away they never really saw a recovery after the 2008 crash – There are lots for sale in Gibsons that were asking $219k in 2007 and are currently asking $169k.
Here’s the most recent post with data for November 2014.
Hat-tip and thanks to Skook for compiling the data!
[…] debt at unsustainable level -Realtors optimistic about 2015 -Overly fat debt loads -Not expecting unexpected economic shocks -Oil to affect Calgary prices -Vancouver Island Stats […]
“RE is overvalued in most parts of Canada by 30%. Except Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto. That is where the majority of immigrants are being settled.”
Immigration is factored into the BoC 30% overvalued assessment. If immigration was to taper the overvaluation would be higher. Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto (and N. Delta too) will correct the most. I’m glad you will still be above net zero after the 50% correction. Just pray it is only 50%.
I’m back.
The BoC made a remarkable statement today.
They are the first central bank to do so with regards to RE.
RE is overvalued in most parts of Canada by 30%. Except Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto. That is where the majority of immigrants are being settled.
I think there will be a backlash in immigration since its being tied to jobs.
And Westside, I sold my lot and bought a house in North Delta. If it goes down 50%, I’m still well above net zero. So give it a rest you clown. Yeah Clown.
102, you’re wastng your breath whilst there’s an army of idiots voting him up.
@100, STFU you idiot. It got old months ago.
BoC, great post.
Anyone who thinks the BoC did this without a lot of thought is fooling themselves.
And if you think HAM owners are not calling offices like mine with deep concern then you are a bigger fool than I can describe.
As far as they are concerned, the gov’t of Canada just warned them to get out now while they can, before the collapse.
Interesting times.
Of course Surrey building lots will continue to scream higher – ya right.
The goose is cooked and everyone can smell it now.
yawn…
“Consumer debt loads and house prices that could be as much as 30 per cent overvalued are the two biggest risks to Canada’s economy, the Bank of Canada warned” Hang on consumer debt load being out of control and house prices being overvalued? Good thing those 2 things are not related otherwise we could be looking at one mother of a correction coming to Canada. Even independent of the consumer debt thingy, 30% over valued on RE means how much of a correction if overvalued things tend to over correct before settling back to the mean? A 50% correction across the country is not out of the question as being normal if 30% is the amount overvalued. They are also talking about overvalued in the country as a whole. How much overvalued is Vancouver in that picture when many places… Read more »
‘UBS Bank said Hutchison has lost the profitability momentum in the absence of obvious catalyst backing the stock price. The unfavorable forex trend (strengthened dollar), oil price slump, coupled with weakening Mainland property sales are dragging down the growth. The profitability of Hutchison is not expected to recover next year. Price cut $118 to $99.’
aastocks.com
More on Poloz; “Stephen Poloz says up to 30% overvalued housing big risk to economy”, CBC
with video.
“Consumer debt loads and house prices that could be as much as 30 per cent overvalued are the two biggest risks to Canada’s economy, the Bank of Canada warned in its semi-annual Financial System Review on Wednesday.”
“The bank says it’s about 95 per cent sure that house prices have been overvalued by an average of about 10 per cent since 2007.”
Realtor say no bubble;
“Vancouver housing prices: There’s no ‘bubble,’ say realtors predicting modest increases in 2015”, The Province.
Increased demand, limited supply, offshore buyers..yada yada yada.
The. Big 5 bank’s are increasing rates , record debt , all they need to tack on 0.5% on existing loans and boom bring back record profits
Why vote me down?
If you want lower house prices in Vancouver, email article to South China Morning Post.
Article:
SCMP.com
The Investor get scared and put money in other asset.
Here’s a country chart of oil’s impact on GDP in 2015 (by OEF/UBS).
Russia takes it on the chin. India and China are winners. Philippines sees the biggest benefit.
http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/5484b3546da811aa75fbadb2-1692-897/oil-19.png
Canada surprises me.
Could rapidly falling oil prices trigger a nightmare scenario for the Canadian RE market?
The big Wall Street banks did not expect plunging home prices to cause a mortgage-backed securities implosion back in 2008, and their models did not anticipate a decline in the price of oil by more than 40 dollars in less than six months this time either….. or did they? IMF, Fitch, you name it, lots of warning for canadian RE Speculators. And we have had plenty of time to dwell on Dutch disease sickbed, look at those Ripley Income charts! and the more studious off us have memorized the Shakelberg oligopoly model, which is todays oil, so Saudi gonna keep market share all the way dooowwwnnn.
I got A in troll spotting class. I feel good.
history: In Beijing University we saw that graph. I got A in class. It mean few people have more money and store money in asset like Richmond house. No GDP becaause house just sit there. More money because some people getting lots of money. That why buy Richmond house. where to put money?
I was listening to 1130 news this morning, which reported that the whores at Remax are predicting a 8.5% increase in Home Prices for 2015. WTF!! Did they pull that out of their asses?
My property agent say Victoria crash first.
My cousin come here buy 2 house in Richmond. Other cousin buy in Richmond Hill. We no buy in other city like Victoria, Edmonton, Kelowna, Montreal, Halifax. Those city have no immigration.
Future in Vancouver and Toronto and Calgary. Immigration comes there. Other places crash.
If the price of crude oil is a leading indicator then it is telling us that the global economy is probably in a severe recession. Thus separately from the direct effect that low oil prices will have on the Canadian economy we will see the indirect effect of low demand for our goods and services. Both effects will of course lead to a significant drop in employment and income. This conclusion is reinforced by an article in today’s Globe stating that OPEC expects demand for oil to drop to 2003 levels this coming year. If that expectation is correct then it is probably unprecedented in recent history, that is for oil consumption to drop to a level last seen 12 years ago. If this understanding is correct then it is probably correct that the long awaited collapse in Canadian housing… Read more »
New Listings 94
Price Changes 30
Sold Listings 105
TI:12675
I was using Zillow nominal data. Some are already 25-50% higher than the 2007 peak.
http://www.zillow.com/los-altos-ca/home-values/
http://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/
