Vancouver and Toronto ‘Desperation’ cities?

Over at the Globe and Mail Rob Carrick points out that real estate is expensive in Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver calling them ‘Desperation cities‘.

But let’s get real.  Not being able to afford a condo isn’t a ‘desperate’ circumstance.

Maybe it’s the fall out of overpaying he’s talking about though…

The theme in housing market forecasts for 2015 so far is steady pricing. Some markets will more or less be flat, while the Big Three markets could rise 3 to 4 per cent. What more could go wrong if you’re struggling to save enough money to buy a first home? Here’s something: You buy and then have to deal with a shock to the economy. Something like a plunge in oil prices that undermines growth and hurts the job market, for example.

In any case if you have shelter, enough food and the company of loved ones you’re pretty lucky on a global scale.  Maybe you’d be happier with granite countertops, but then again maybe you wouldn’t.

 

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Westside Realtor
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Westside Realtor

Once it becomes common knowledge that HAM flow has tapered to a trickle the westside sfh mkt will decline sharply this upcoming spring.

The pain will be severe and will spill quickly over to other markets. East Van will begin to fall sharply shortly thereafter.

Interesting times ahead.

WSR

VanRant
Member
VanRant

Merry Christmas to all and to Westside Realtor. We all know you are a Imaginary realtor but us bears needs some comforting thoughts once in a while and thats why I vote you up.

Re-diculous
Member
Re-diculous

Every time I check my brokerage accounts these days I think “thank god those funds are in the equity markets versus tied up in a Vancouver Condo”. It’s all about Opportunity Cost and the OC of owning a Vancouver Condo is very high right now.

Mortgageslave
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Mortgageslave

I’ve read the term “soft landing” brought up alot recently from people in the Real Estate Market. I did a search and here is what I found:

Soft Landing – Flat prices
Hard Landing – Falling Prices
Vancouver HPI (12 months ago) + 5.69 %
Vancouver HPI (6 months ago) + 2.14 %
Vancouver HPI (3 months ago) + .9%
Vancouver HPI (1 month ago) 0 %

From the looks of things the soft landing hopes/dreams will be squashed in 2015. Happy new year everybody!

Westside Realtor
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Westside Realtor

Mortgageslave,

Will be nice to watch as that turns negative 🙂

Madashell,

Thanks, one day I will “out” myself and throw a bear party where I work (westside realty office..a nice one, we have great parties there).

Thanks

WSR

Mister Obvious
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Mister Obvious
‘Landings’ are something that planes and birds do. In either case, a heavier-than-air body takes flight using aerodynamic principles and with limited energy, travels for some distance, then returns to terra firma. Ideally the deceleration during descent is not excessive. When it is excessive we call it a ‘crash’. When it is gentle we call it a ‘soft landing’. Notice that in either case, the body that was once aloft has, in fact, returned to the surface of the earth from which it started. A ‘soft landing’ is a poor analogy in relation to house prices or any other prices. If you want to give ‘soft landing = flat prices’ a proper aerodynamic analogy it would be to ‘land on an cloud’. In other words, an impossibility. The term ‘soft landing’ as it generally applied to real estate prices is… Read more »
patriotz
Member

“the Big Three markets could rise 3 to 4 per cent.”

He thinks Calgary is going up next year? He should get a job writing speeches for Putin.

I think it’s going to be “desperation city” all right, but not for the people he thinks.

Softy
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Softy

The term ‘soft landing’ as it generally applied to real estate prices is quite meaningless. For most financially overextended property owners, what flat prices really means is ‘peering over a cliff into the abyss of negative equity’.

Whatever. Prices have been flat for 4-5 years. That is a soft landing. Has there every been a real estate market that has been flat for that long and then crashed?

Doomcouver
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Doomcouver

Economists always talk about a “trigger” that is generally necessary to pop a price bubble like real estate. I personally believe the replacement of the IIP with its current iteration and crashing oil prices could very well be two triggers that finally sink us. I would argue this could be the biggest trigger since the 2008 sub-prime lending crisis in the US. Thoughts?

satinder
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satinder

Do white ppl say “happy holidays” to each other or do they say “merry Christmas”?

Im wondering if they say happy holidays to me to be politically correct.

It would be ironic because my family and Indian friends all say merry Christmas to each other.

@satinder
Guest
@satinder

“Im wondering if they say happy holidays to me to be politically correct.”

Yes that is correct. They say it to white people too. Hard to spot a Jewish person for example. If you are running a business and don’t know the person that makes sense. If you know someone personally then for fck sakes just say Merry Christmas.

@doomcouver
Guest
@doomcouver

“Economists always talk about a “trigger””

Technically there is always a trigger for everything. If a 500 pound guy who smokes 3 packs of cigarettes per day has a heart attack after climbing 10 stairs is the trigger the stairs? Maybe, but the real cause is not the stairs. The heart attack with the persons life style was inevitable. If RE prices tank this spring the economists will say it was the oil prices that caused it. Maybe it was the trigger but if RE prices were at normal levels prior to oil tanking there would be no crash just like if the guy was normal weight and didn’t smoke he wouldn’t have a heart attack after climbing 10 stairs. The problem is never the trigger and there are triggers all the time.

LS in Arbutus
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LS in Arbutus

How is it that people are permitted spend $1 million plus for a sh*tty house, or even $500,000 for a sh*tty condo that they can’t afford? Is it predatory lending? Even people that “can afford” this are not really qualified to do this. Eventually we will get to the point where people will say “What were we thinking?” It’s quite incomprehensible the mess we are in.

West Coast Woman
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West Coast Woman

The Canadian government has now formally announced the new Immigrant Venture Capital Program, which replaces the IIP. The qualifications and application process are considerably more onerous than they were for the IIP. See:

http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=915059
http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=915049

I think all the $3+ Million single family houses built specifically for the Asian market are going to have a really hard time finding buyers in the future, since there aren’t going to be many more wealthy Asians moving here.

patriotz
Member

@9: “I would argue this could be the biggest trigger since the 2008 sub-prime lending crisis in the US. Thoughts?”

US housing prices started falling in early 2006.
The sub-prime lending crisis was in 2007, not 2008, and was a result of falling prices.
The global financial crisis was in 2008 and was a result of still falling prices (they were already more than 1/2 way to the bottom).

As @12 pointed out the real cause is simply excessive prices.

“Economists always talk about a “trigger””

No. For example:

The first is that, contrary to conventional wisdom, it does not require a trigger, such as a big rise in interest rates or unemployment, for house prices to decline.

http://www.economist.com/node/4079027

It’s usually those which a vested interest in high prices who talk about a “trigger”. Objective economists don’t.

bullwhip29
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bullwhip29

@ #15

yes, cuts or bruises that never seem to fully heel could be symptomatic of a more serious underlying problem (as we found out a few years ago). the truth is that since then all the powers that be have been doing is applying new bandaids and prescribing meds for upset stomachs and headaches. nothing’s really been cured. imho, collapsing oil prices could be a big red flag and/or the first domino to fall. should be interesting in 2015

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/24/could-oils-nosedive-be-the-shock-that-will-finally-bring-global-stocks-back-to-earth

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #14
fwiw, the less onerous quebec IIP (which was revised in aug) will remain in place until at least the end of mar 2015. i think something like 90% of these applicants wind up moving to other provinces

i still maintain that when the SHTF the harper administration will backtrack on a number of measures including the IIP and other housing/RE related matters. while the powers that be may not be able to directly control interest rates, they can (and will if necc) rejig certain policies to lessen the blow. hard landing is not in their vocabulary.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

if i was interested in jumping the queue, i’d be looking in this direction….just sayin

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/express/express-entry.asp

E.G.
Guest
E.G.

I saw a documentry on counterfeit goods and how they are filled with toxins.

After entering n america they are sold in dollar stores and night markets. I wonder if exposure to them is the reason Asians often look so strange. Odd shaped heads oddly shaped bodies, skinny weak feminine males, extreme acne, bad eye sight, poor coordination, ext.

I doubt western medicine and science with its eurocentrism is examining this.

Son of Ponzi
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Son of Ponzi

#19
read the latest Consumer Report:
Certain kinds of rice contain high levels of arsenic.

TLL
Guest
TLL

Kwok brothers who played a role in shaping Vancouver’s Coal Harbour and Richmond’s post-Olympic legacy (Aspac Developments Ltd) – one was acquitted but the other one found guilty in Rafael Hui’s graft trial. They may still get away with just a wrist slap.

“Big names make pleas for leniency as Hui and Thomas Kwok face sentencing for graft”

@#16
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@#16
anti-xmassism
Guest
anti-xmassism

immigrants often get blamed for the “war on christmass” but the truth is they don’t care. it’s a minority of atheists and jews who complain about this stuff.

A Muslim defence of the Christmas tree
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=1922c436-2a9c-4036-b8bc-04985468b6d2

crikey
Guest
crikey
#10 Satinder said: “Do white ppl say “happy holidays” to each other or do they say “merry Christmas” Im wondering if they say happy holidays to me to be politically correct.” I think that most of the same ppl that say “happy holidays” to you will say it to everybody regardless of race. If they are trying to be politically correct, chances are they are smart enough to realize that there are just as many caucasians that don’t believe in Christmas as non-caucasians. “It would be ironic because my family and Indian friends all say merry Christmas to each other.” There are lot of people that are not into saying that as well – regardless of race. So, damned if they do say Merry Christmas (because definitely they will come across people that get offended), and damn if they don’t… Read more »
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