FFFA! Cancelations, Condos, Concern

Here we are at Friday again. That means it’s time for our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread.

It’s Friday Free-for-all time!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Judge kills Yaletown land swap
Labour participation drops
Oil crash bad for BC labourers
Condo cancelations in Toronto
Toronto and Montreal best cities?
Dodge warns on bank profits
Another retailer exits
Brain melting in panic

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
patriotz
Member

Davos is starting to get it – inequality is the root cause of stagnation

After six years of low interest rates and quantitative easing, the obvious conclusion is that the threat of secular stagnation is not going to be tackled by macroeconomic measures alone. Structural reform is needed. But not the sort of structural reform that involves pay cuts, a weakening of collective bargaining and austerity. That will increase rather than decrease the risk of secular stagnation.

Instead, structural reform has to address the root cause of secular stagnation: inequality.

patriotz
Member

Amid tighter bank rules, more Canadians turning to alternative lenders

Squeezed out by stricter bank regulations, a growing number of mortgage-hunting Canadians have been turning to non-traditional lenders to overcome borrowing hurdles like bad credit.

The proportion of mortgages given out by alternative institutions, other than banks or credit unions, remains small at roughly 2.2 per cent of the entire market, said a recent analysis by CIBC.

But their share of the overall mortgage market has grown from 0.8 per cent during the 2008-09 recession and is now expanding at a rate of about 25 per cent per year, says Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC World Markets.

Non-bank lenders are not subject to the lending regulations for financial institutions.

BD
Guest
BD
Simon
Guest
Simon

Hey space889,

That 20% currency-based discount you have been advertising… is now 25%.

Do you get how it’s not a great deal?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #4

yeah, maybe the crashing loonie, lower interest rates etc are signs that things aren’t going so well after all? who would have thunk it?

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadian+dollar+slides+economic+growth+grinds+halt+November/10773785/story.html

patriotz
Member

‘There will be blood’ in Canada from oil price collapse, JPMorgan warns

A major U.S. bank is warning Canadians what to expect from the rout in the oil market: “There will be blood.”

That warning from JPMorgan Chase & Co. is largely aimed at the province of Alberta, home to Canada’s oil patch, but the collapse in oil prices will filter through the broader economy.

The Wall Street giant, like others, suggest a recession in Alberta, with slower economic growth in other parts of the economy. Economists generally now forecast growth of 2 per cent or lower in Canada this year.

Maybe an RE bust? Nah, it’s different here. 😉

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #2
we have seen this movie before, have we not?

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/0_8ugu6pk1/video.html

come to think of it, yes we have…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PV_YAeXOSiw

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“IMF says housing in Canada overvalued by as much as 20%”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/30/imf-says-housing-in-canada-overvalued-by-as-much-as-20/

“The IMF waded into the household debt debate. “Domestic vulnerabilities in housing markets and household sector remain elevated but contained from a financial stability perspective,” it said, noting the central bank’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in-line with the IMF’s advice to use monetary policy to offset any adverse affects of oil prices.”

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

>Maybe an RE bust? Nah, it’s different here.

are you predicting a real estate crash mr. home owner?

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

i would love to see the vancouver real estate rollercoaster get updated. it’s 4 years old.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqOn5XEm86A

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

looks like Cdn banks are the next shoe to drop (after miners, energy co’s).

CWB now down >40% in approx 5 months

CM down 17.5% since Dec high

Brian Ripley
Guest
Brian Ripley

re “Labour Participation Drops”

I just posted 3 charts on this page.
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/show-me-the-money

The top panel shows Canadian Government Spending vs Labour Force Participation and the lower panel shows Canadian Jobs Added on an Annual Basis all since 2008. Government spending on itself and the household sector combined with ultra low borrowing rates have not yielded growth in Canadian Labour Force Participation. If Treasury Yields are a measure of price and wage inflation, it’s just not happening.

condoconundrum
Guest
condoconundrum

Oh No!!! Vancouver is not on the list of best cities. Who do I see about a refund for those damn licence plates I bought because I sure as hell am not moving to Toronto.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/toronto-montreal-take-top-spots-for-best-places-140812272.html

Softy
Guest
Softy
“Maybe an RE bust? Nah, it’s different here. ;-)” Yes, would be like that “bust” that happened in 2009. Remember that? Collapse of oil from $147 down to $40. And the world’s biggest insurance companies, banks, investment banks, auto companies were collapsing. The TSX lost 1000 points in a single day amid many days of drops over 500 points. The worst financial crisis in 80 years. Another great depression was on the horizon (as it happened, the efforts of central banks confined to only a great recession). Amid all of this, the second worst financial crisis in human history, what happened to the Canada and Vancouver RE markets? Meh. After the huge price boom of processing years they dropped 20% and a year later they made new highs and continued to do so year after year. But this time, oh… Read more »
Softy
Guest
Softy

Corrections:

Yes, would it be like that “bust” that happened in 2009?

After the huge price boom of PRECEEDING years…

patriotz
Member

@14:

The financial crisis being – well, financial – responded to a treatment (not cure) of easy money. So oil and RE prices went back up, accomanied by the largest increase of consumer debt ever seen in Canada.

The current oil crisis is due to real not nominal factors – a drop in the price of oil relative to everything else due to actual supply/demand, i.e. a decline in the real price of oil and real output of Canada. This can’t be treated by the remedies of 2008.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I think we are at the moment of truth now.

Either Real Estate in Vancouver crashes this year or it doesn’t. If it doesn’t, then it will remain high going forward. The Feds have devalued us by almost 1/3rd. Comparable to Russia who has been devalued by 1/2.

We are on sale to the world. Everything is to become so much more expensive. Examples?

Jan 31st is the last day to buy a new car with any promotions attached. March 1st, Car companies are to raise prices by an average of 10-15%.

Furniture and general consumer goods prices to go up 15% (made in China).

Funny that the TSX is still high. It is the next to crash…unless the banks think they can squeeze more money out of Canadians. Not likely.

Buy Dollarama though!

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canadians set to jump on homebuyer bandwagon amid lower rates”, Globe & Mail.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/canadians-set-to-jump-on-homebuyer-bandwagon-amid-lower-rates/article22717699/

“Canada’s housing market is already seeing the impact of falling interest rates, with nearly half of Canadians telling a new survey that they are planning to buy a home in the next five years and more than 15 per cent saying cheaper mortgage rates will allow them to make the purchase sooner than expected.”

DaMann
Member
Active Member
DaMann

@14. The problem this time is they can’t crater interest rates to save it. This is what makes it interesting now. They had that bullet and shot it, now the chamber is empty.

Bo Xilai
Member
Bo Xilai

If you’re from China or Hong Kong, the value of your Vancouver Real Estate has gone down 20% in your home currency just in the past 6 months…

It’s just us Canadian mooks who will realize our money doesn’t buy anything more once we pay for any imported goods or go overseas on vacations.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

CBC News;
“Vancouver real estate: detached homes spark bidding wars”
“Real estate agents say locals, not mainland Chinese buyers, are driving the market”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-detached-homes-spark-bidding-wars-1.2937732

“Detached homes in Vancouver are being snapped up by local buyers, with some going for more than 20 percent over the asking price, according to local real estate agents.”

The article only cites two realtors who each give one anecdote. Otherwise, no data, stats, or other information. Hype or reality?

UBC in crisis mode
Guest
UBC in crisis mode

After switching to a new realtor, the owner has a $1,000,000 price drop.
(It was $6,988,000 5 months ago, down from $7,500,000).

1576 NEWTON CR, University, Vancouver West, $5,988,000.00
(assessed $5,953,600)

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=V1100548&rowc=3&rowp=1&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=21&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=2000000&MXPRC=90000000&SCTP=RS

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
@ #14 wasn’t worst financial crisis since gr depression. that was the spin used to justify unprecedented stimulus pkgs to bankster crooks @ #19 you are correct. almost no ammo left other than keep printing presses on, hope for the best. only serious card left to play is to relax lending standards again and/or maybe some wildcard outta left field move from feds (ie. something tax related or some other incentive to get buyers off the sidelines); the longer this goes, the worse the outcome will be as everyone already knows. @ #21 exactly the kind of bs you’d expect from the usual cast of characters. next up the spring buying promos, more staged open houses and the like to whip everyone into a “can’t miss the boat” type of panicked frenzy. back on earth, selling price and days to… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@18: “Canada’s housing market is already seeing the impact of falling interest rates, with nearly half of Canadians telling a new survey that they are planning to buy a home in the next five years”

The market (in RE or anything else) consists of actual transactions, not what people tell some survey what they think they’re going to do.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #25
it all sounds like a phony movie trailer to me. this is the guy the RE developers should hire

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qvv8SMTyAgk

have good wknd all

wpDiscuz