Friday Free-For-All! 2015 is here!

It’s the beginning of a new year and the end of another week.

That means it’s Friday Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

1988 flashback
Chinese bottom fishers in Russia
That’ll bump up the average
Chinese buyers eye Seattle
The pretending to pay buyers gambit

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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assumpta
Guest
assumpta

We are in an credit fueled asset bubble. Vancouver is one of the world’s asset bubbles. Sooner or later there is a correction comming.

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[…] -Assessments and sales -Canada in ‘serious trouble’? -Optimism Fading? -Rent vs. buy math -High debt a way of life -Oil brings doubt -Chinese investors not afraid of ghosts -Realtor Hunger Index at 68% -Prices down in Yuan – […]

@142
Guest
@142
“Or do you merely like lauding your exceptional good fortune for having purchased earlier in this cycle over those of us who didn’t have the opportunity to until now?” For good fortune you need to sell. Otherwise you have gained nothing. You still have the same POS house only older and more outdated. You need to sell to take advantage of any market appreciation. Guys like BBB have continued to buy all they up to the top by buying second properties and trading up and will not try to sell until it is too late. They will get slaughtered. No good fortune for BBB. They come on here because they are scared shtless. They are trying to convince themselves everything will be OK. Deep down they know they are fckd. Otherwise why would you hang around a bear blog if… Read more »
NOM NOM NOM
Guest
NOM NOM NOM

@Bull! Bull! Bull!

Hey man, I am a 34 year old who makes lower 6 figures and have a wife who makes the same… I grew up and live on the westside… I rent because I haven’t bought.

Do you think it is a good time to buy now? Or do you merely like lauding your exceptional good fortune for having purchased earlier in this cycle over those of us who didn’t have the opportunity to until now?

If it is the former, please do explain your reasoning… Namely, that you see the prices of housing in Vancouver continueing to rise because of X, Y, and Z.

If it is the latter, please take your cocky, self-aggrandized intelect, and FUCK OFF.

Cheers,
NNN

Mortgageslave
Guest
Mortgageslave
@space889 – Not sure why I bother but you just sound like a scared child with your name calling on this blog. So sad to see the anger in your posts with absolutely no substance. It’s quite funny how emotional some idiots get on here. Congrats on your last bday, you’re can buy liquor now! @BBB – I’m not sure anybody can say they were right or wrong about the housing market at this point and time. I think the main point here is that houses are overpriced and will correct back to historical ratios as they always do (rent/avg income vs price). if it’s fast or slow, who really cares. Get out of the market at their leasure? LMAO, Houses aren’t stocks. Ask some Americans how easy it is to get out of a falling market. To all the… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

a somewhat shaky start to year (only 3 days in) for these two stocks…
HCG.TO -6.7%
CWB.TO -9.7%

but for us folks in BC, everything will be fine
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Outlook+business+2015+remains+stable/10697044/story.html

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

B!B!B!,

Right now, cap rates are 3% for condos and less than 2% for SFHs. Are you trying to tell us that buying under these conditions makes sense? Can you walk us through your bull logic?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #136

decisive action by a small % (versus the collective group) is all that is necessary to move markets. in 08/09 asking prices fell sharply in a matter of weeks without the big volume associated with a mass stampede for the exits

CBC
Guest
CBC

The question is when do we hit peak? People thought we hit peak every year for the last 5 years so saying this is peak is just a guess. You take in market factors and you get an educated guess at best. mix in lower mainland variables such as foreign money, criminal money and immigration, now it turns into just a guess again. To be so strongly adamant about a crash is foolish.
When does gold hit bottom? if you knew, you would buy at bottom and be rich.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@patriotz

>Speculators collectively cannot exit at leisure.

in the real world a group like housing speculators aren’t going to collectively do anything without prompting from some outside force, so your hypothetical scenario is unrealistic and not worth considering.

Zero head
Guest
Zero head
patriotz
Member

@133:” in a soft landing the speculator can exit the market at their leisure.”

Speculators collectively cannot exit at leisure. An individual speculator can get out if there is another speculator willing to take their loss. That’s just playing musical chairs and does not change collective losses by speculators.

“also, isn’t every bubble followed by a crash?”

No. A bubble is defined by present price versus future earnings, not future price movements.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

>Makes no difference to the amount of money those buying at the peak lose. That’s what matters.

no, it makes a huge difference, especially for speculators. in a crash a speculator will be destroyed. in a soft landing the speculator can exit the market at their leisure.

also, isn’t every bubble followed by a crash? isn’t that the dogma all you people live by? no crash, no bubble. yet another thing you were wrong about.

time to revisit your hypothesis. it’s a new year. give up on bear logic.

Zero head
Guest
Zero head

Dinner at friends in swanky part of kerrisdale. Interesting to note. A lot of the neighbours use multiple home stays to maintain their mortgages. These are upwards of $3mill homes. What other city in NA would owners of such properties need home stays?? Crazy ramped up real estate frenzied local market.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

edit @ #127 (not 12)

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #12
magnitude of capital loss may wind up being same when measured over two completely different time frames, however, potential for an additional stealth loss incl interest (plus other costs) exists for as long as you hold the property and/or carry a mortgage. i suspect many who bought recently are already adopting a hold for now, hope for best approach thinking they can still eke out a small profit if they wait a few years.

space889
Guest
space889

@patriotz – Losing $20K a year on your house 20 years from now is a lot different from losing $20K this year. You are talking about nominal terms which you know full well is different from real terms, as you keep hammer other people on.

Losing $200K over even 10 or 15 years is a lot better than losing $200K within next 3 years.

Geez….you are such a dickwad…nitpick others and calling them idiots and yet igoring those same facts when it is convenient to make your own point.

StupidityCheck
Guest
StupidityCheck

Wow, B!B!B!, talk about irony!

I bought some SFHs in the US 5 years ago. The cap rate on them ranged from 8%-10%. Since then, they have almost doubled in value in $CAD. Meanwhile, condo investors in Vancouver have been getting 3% cap rates and no appreciation (aka soft landing).

And you think that you have been right, and I have been wrong?! You are a perfect example of the ignorance that keeps this bubble going!

patriotz
Member

@121: “A crash is very different from a long drawn out correction ( AKA soft landing? AKA level prices? ).”

Makes no difference to the amount of money those buying at the peak lose. That’s what matters.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #124
you are correct. many americans got their a$$es handed to them during the last crisis and had no choice but to sober up and get their financial houses in order. in canada, where we are led to believe nothing can go wrong, the mentality was different post 08/09 crash. instead of using the recent market strength as an opportunity to deleverage and get everything squared up, many did the complete opposite and kept the booze flowing so to speak. eventually this party will come to an ugly end. a major accident is inevitable. the Cdn banks will not get bailed out behind closed doors for a second time. many smug big swinging dicks will be undergoing some major behavioral changes in the not too distant future too.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #121

imho a crash could happen at any given moment. the odds that something unravels in europe, russia, china, japan..etc has only increased since 2009. the underlying problems that reared their ugly heads in 08-09 have not been solved at all. in fact, many believe the various attempts at papering over the problems have only delayed the inevitable and made the situation as a whole way more toxic. one could also argue that a long drawn out soft landing-type situation (ie. think japan) is more damaging as many fence sitting, overleveraged home owners do nothing but wait for better times while continuing to send fat checks to their bankers every month.

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

$48 oil.

I imagine that there are big swinging u know what’s that were walking with a swagger 100 days ago that are now sitting big fat bricks.

Coffee table talk about how much real estate everyone owned and how many options one got on their $80k trucks and $100k rv’s for bragging rights has probably turned on a dime. Pay cuts, job losses, debt debt debt, worries now. Horrible ounce for thousands of families and massive financial worries now likely dominate the conversation.

A market that is an accident waiting to happen will eventually find its accident.

Northern BC will be impacted directly as well.

Try selling a property in these markets today – deep discounts will be needed to move product. Could be an outright depression for real estate values in these areas.

Vancouver westside sfh market – we will find our accident.

WSR

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

@ #115

benchmark values (priced in USD) are actually down for the second straight year

Westside Realtor
Guest
Westside Realtor

Well, oil now with a 4 handle.

I have a hard time seeing how cdn oil related firms don’t do massive job cuts NOW. I can’t see how they don’t start cutting the fly in from kelowna etc workforce…i think history will show that flying in unskilled labour and paying them $20k a month (including living camp costs) was about the surest sign of a bubble you can have.

Hard to see how Alberta real estate prices don’t plummet right now.

Benchmark prices – they don’t tell you that the ‘benchmark’ home is much nicer than the ‘benchmark’ would have looked ten years ago. Comparing an apple to an orange. How they get away with this is amazing.

I remain uber bearish, despite Larry yatter taking the opposite view.

I think this spring market will show weakness.

JMHO

WSR

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@102

A crash is very different from a long drawn out correction ( AKA soft landing? AKA level prices? ). Please don’t mix the two together because. It only obscures how wrong many on this blog have been.

We’ve seen patriotz buy. We’ve seen people abandon their crash theory and secretly and silently defect to the soft landing camp.

What we haven’t seen is people examining their assumptions and trying to understand why they were so wrong for so long. If your hypothesis lacks predictive power you need to revisit your hypothesis.